Richard North from the EU Referendum writes of a curious juxtaposition of forecasts, then and now. I thought it worth sharing here since it highlights the chutzpah with which CRU botched their forecast in March of 2000. At least they didn’t claim that UK snowfall was in a “death spiral”.
From The Independent on 20 March 2000 we got the headline: “Snowfalls are now just a thing of the past”. According to Dr David Viner, a senior research scientist at the climatic research unit (CRU) of the University of East Anglia, within a few years winter snowfall will become “a very rare and exciting event”.
Then, from the Telegraph online today we get: “Snow and ice to hit Britain at New Year.”
The mercury is set to drop to 28°F (-3°C) in most of England and Wales on Thursday night, New Year’s Eve, and 17°F (-8°C) in Scotland, with widespread snow showers also predicted. New Year’s Day will also be chilly, with the northern half of Britain’s struggling to get above freezing during the day, while London will do well to reach 39°F (4°C)
The forecast follows a spell of snow, sleet and ice which has gripped Britain for more than a week but relented in most parts over recent days.
It is so good to see in The Independent that the CRU is living up to its justly acquired reputation for accuracy.
I’ll also point out that this “very rare and exciting event” happened in London last year also.
Snow blankets London for Global Warming debate – first October Snow in over 70 years
Above: London 10/29/2008
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Jim Cripwell (03:28:24) :
I was born in the UK, but have lived in Canada for over 50 yeras. We know all about keeping a modern transportation system going in winter. Two things to note on this subject. First it costs a lot of money. Second, a lot of the money must be spent up front; if one is not ready for winter by the equinox, it is already too late. With the UK government officially supporting AWG, it is going to be very difficult for local governments to get enough funds so as to be ready for significant snowfalls in the UK. Precisely what this means, if and when a 21st century countrry has a degraded transportation system for significant periods of time, I have no idea
Looks like the current UK political class will guarantee that “The Experiment” will in fact be conducted, and the rest of the world can learn from the “British Experience” of creating a disaster by politically enforced negligence of the fundamentals of an effective economic infrastructure.
Spence_UK (13:26:45) :
John Finn:
Wine produced in the MWP was of poor quality.
Seriously, what credible evidence do you have for this?
Climate scientists have fat wallets and fine palettes these days dontcha know.
gtrip (01:15:34) :
Why do you think that Anthony keeps posting G. P. Bear goes to Washington? Can he not tell by the lack of comments that nobody is interested?
Is someone forcing you to read the G. P. Bear posts?
If you don’t like it – don’t read it.
BTW: This is Anthonys blog, and he is completely entitled to post anything he pleases on it.
I’m always curious about people who respond to content on freely accessible media that they don’t like by trying to ban (halt the display…) that content – as if your personal opinion and value judgement is more important or valid than anyone elses.
The bottom line with freely accessible media content is that if you don’t like it, don’t watch (read) it.
Bob Kutz (06:35:36) :
Pamela Gray (00:42:55) :
…
Your side’s credibility fades by the day. Soon the science will catch up and prove you for the charlatans you’ve become. The good news is that at that time, the science will reinvest itself, and useful knowledge will thereby be obtained.
Bob – you need to review Pamela’s previous posts on this blog before casting such aspersions.
From her previous posts she takes a stand for real science, not the politicised pap that pervades the AGW alarmist camp. I think that you have misinterpreted her comments on this thread and have mislabeled her.
An apology might be in order.
Galen Haugh (07:33:10) :
As a geologist, my perspective is on the order of thousands of years as far as climate is concerned (I view these minor 20- to 30-year perturbations as mere noise in the overall scheme of things). So since we’re talking about the future, I can tell you what will happen: We’re going to have another glacial epoch. It is unavoidable.
We’re at the end of this current interglacial, as the following graphs indicate:
http://www.daviesand.com/Choices/Precautionary_Planning/New_Data/
Generally, interglacials last about 10,000 years, and we’re at least 10,500 years into this one–up to 12,800 years by some accounts. So the timing is a bit uncertain, but we’re at least 500 years overdue. And the switch from interglacial to glacial only takes a few years; some evidence shows it happens within 4 months.
I don’t know whether it will happen next year, in 10 years, 100 years, or 1,000 years, but it will happen. And there isn’t anything we can do to stop it. It’s just climate.
And it will be devastating
Fully agree, – would you recommend property investment in Australia as sound long term investment strategy?
Bob Kutz (09:10:44) :
And, after further review, I should’ve read a few more of Pam’s posts before commenting.
She is most definitely not an AGW supporter, and neither does she support the notion that there is no such thing as climate change, which means she actually seems to have an understanding similar to my own.
If my attacks were overly harsh, I apologize.
Hi Bob – good work, I just caught up to your comment here.
RE: Wakfield Tolbert (10:35:09)
You asked: “What is the basis of the 61-90 baseline, and is this verified elsewhere?” I found Climate Wizard from ScienceDaily.com
http://www.sciencedaily.com/releases/2009/12/091215145050.htm
If you follow the many links, you’ll find the US data is from the National Climatic Data Center. My background is in numerical filters (among other things), not climate science. I suspect the data has been heavily ‘homogenized’ or otherwise ‘corrected’ before being presented at Climate Wizard.
I found the speckling of cool spots among warm areas interesting. How do some areas cool in such close proximity to warming spots? Not all can be explained by urban heating. This inconsistency (warm near cool) leads me to suspect their models or processed data have problems – or we’re seeing the limit of their data’s resolution.
Regardless, their forecasts (the major models from the AGW crowd), say what all AGW models say.
All this talk of the relative number of vineyards between now and the MWP omits the fact that vineyard numbers declined following the depature of the romans. The climate cooled and wine drinking became less common and was satisfied by imports. It is also mportant to recognise the population differences.
There are 60 million people now in the UK and around 1.5 million at the time of Domesday in 1086. Bearing in mind improvements in viticulture techniques, the numbers of enthusiasts with time and money to grow vines and the enormous increase in population it would be expected there would be many more vineyards today.
tonyb
Peter of Sydney (13:45:39) :
It’s really funny to see so called climate scientists parading across the world claiming the world is still going to warm catastrophically when in fact it’s hasn’t significantly departed from a longer term trend of very gradual warming over thousands of years. Even their own data shows this is true. If the current world cooling continues for just a few more years, we can say that the global temperatures have dropped significantly over the last 100 or so years. What then? Do the so called climate scientists start re-writing history by deploying memory holes as described by George Orwell? Or do they flip and claim a new little ice-age is coming? When will such hypocrisy going to end?
The hypocrisy will never end. The battle between those who would rule us and our own needs for liberty and self determination has no prospect of ending. The political agenda behind the AGW movement runs deep and my expectation is that a possible result will be a flip and the claim will go from man made global warming to man made global cooling. CO2 will remain the villian, and CO2 emission control is the necessary means of controlling the peoples use of energy. The media will be co-opted and the new message simply repeated ad-nauseum until the old message is forgotten.
The bottom line is that we all need to keep insisting on openess and integrity in science as a (one of the) defense against corruption of the scientific process by vested interest groups such as the IPCC.
A little fictional scenario of how such a flip could play out.
When Green Chickens Come Home To Roost.
Somewhere in the USA, Sometime in 2018…
FADE IN.
OUTSIDE: EARLY EVENING – NOVEMBER.
– A weary group of men and women, chained into a gang, trudge along a city road. Their guards carry rifles, and short whips. A light dusting of snow is falling.
– They pass a Primary (Elementary) school where the teachers and students have assembled to watch them pass. The Principle of the school turns and faces the assembled children and staff and raises her arms.
Principle: (Stern Encouragement) “Now children all as one – Sceptics are Septics”.
Assembled Children and Staff: (Chanting) “Sceptics are Septics… Sceptics are Septics… Sceptics are Septics…”
– Some of the chained people steal glances at the children.
Guard: “Eyes Front!”
– The guard smashes his whip across the face of one of the chained men and bright blood splashes onto the snow.
– One of the schoolchildren breaks ranks and staggers forward through the snow.
Schoolboy: (Falteringly Disbelief) “That’s my Dad!?”
– The principle turns abruptly towards the boy and signals to green frocked School Proctors, who leap forward and grab the boy before he can reach the road.
– The struck man slumps to the ground, barely conscious, the man chained next to him takes his arm and drags him to his feet.
Principle: (Outraged) “Shocking behaviour. Samuel Taylor – A months detention. Proctors remove him to the holding room.”
– The proctors drag the boy away.
Assembled Children and Staff: (Continue Chanting) “Sceptics are Septics… Sceptics are Septics… Sceptics are Septics…”
– Two school cleaners stand quietly to the side of the assembly, not being teaching staff or students they are not required to join in. They talk quietly together.
Cleaner One: “So the Higgs Boson has been found at CERN?”
Cleaner Two: “Yes, the Paper by Peebles gives an excellent demonstration of the existence of the Higgs Boson.”
Cleaner One: “Do you miss the research at MIT?”
Cleaner Two: “Of course – but at least I’m able to feed my little girl. – and what choice did I have, Particle Physics isn’t Environmental Science is it.”
Cleaner One: “Same with Nuclear Engineering – now that all the reactors have been shut down – there’s just no more work for a PHD in Engineering in my field.”
– Cleaner Two nods towards the steadily moving chain gang.
Cleaner Two: “Still it’s better than what that lot are facing.”
Cleaner One: “Which is?”
Cleaner Two: “5 Years Hard Labour in the Pig Methane Plant.”
Cleaner One: “Shovel Pig manure for 18 hours a day and get fed…”
Cleaner Two: “Which would you prefer – that – or the alternative?”
– Cleaner one shivered from more than the cold, and drew his coat more tightly around his thin frame.
Cleaner One: “The fertiliser plant – but that’s just for capital crimes isn’t it?”
Cleaner Two: “Apparently “Carbon Denial” is set to become a capital crime – rumour has it, that it’s to be the next Presidential Emergency Directive.”
Cleaner One: (Quietly) “Oh my god… what have we become?”
– Cleaner Two nods silently in agreement.
– The Principle signals a halt to her students and staff.
Principle: (Smug) “Now everyone – we have todays new mantra, lets chant it together for the benefit of these poor deluded people.”
All: (Chanting in practised unison) “Man Made CO2 Causes Global Cooling… Man Made CO2 Causes Global Cooling… Man Made CO2 Causes Global Cooling…”
FADE OUT.
Sour Grapes in the UK
Grapes were grown in England during the Medieval Warm period. At the time of the compilation of the Domesday Survey in the late eleventh century, vineyards were recorded in 46 places in southern England, from East Anglia through to modern-day Somerset. By the time King Henry VIIIth ascended the throne there were 139 sizeable vineyards in England and Wales
Today with modern technology, some grapes are being grown in southern England.
“A saying has grown up that the best way to get a small fortune is to have a large fortune and buy an English vineyard. Whilst this is cruel, it is also pretty certain that it is true. ” http://www.english-wine.com/history.html#pioneers
Here from the diary of some poor chap who is actually doing this, near Peterborough, in the heart of England (on level with East Anglia):
“Friday, 30 May 2008 Frost recovery, cutting back etc.
So I’ve just finished going round all the vines cutting back (in fact completely off in most cases) the growing shoots. A lot of them look like they did in late winter after I’d pruned of last year’s cane now. It’s been a massive setback this frost damage…
Monday, 12 October 2009 Pre-harvest assessment
So I’ve seen a much reduced crop in this first year compared to what I was expecting, with something like 30-40% of the vines producing grapes, with some of them only being a single bunch. http://an-english-vineyard.blogspot.com/
Maybe Phil. and John Finn might want to help him out. If with nothing else than with assurances that snowfall will soon be a rare and exciting event. The CRU has told us so.
Bob Kutz (09:10:44) :
“And, after further review, I should’ve read a few more of Pam’s posts before commenting.”
I reckon Pamela is one of the smartest of all the people who post here.
rob m. (13:48:52) :
A weather event does not climate make. But, when does a series of weather events become climate?
When it jumps from one hemispere’s winter to the next and moves in a generalized direction for a significant part of an oscillation period.
The cooling is progressing steadily and evenly.
At what rate it is difficult to assess, due to the massive interference and outright pillage of the rural global network that, if left intact, would have given us a definitive answer. It’s like having the Climactic equivalent of NORAD down.
What an awful state of affairs.
Wakefield Tolbert (05:30:39) :
Claude Harvey (00:35:25) :
Another funny….
It must have only snowed, what, three microns, then?
It can’t have exceeded three microns, because CO2 absorbs at four microns.
It is an elegant confirmation of the Peter Principle, “in a hierarchy, employees tend to rise to the level of their incompetence”, just like those two joke scientists on BBC recently, “who prove[d] the case for global warming in a kitchen filled with members of the public and people who had been in the BBC Top Gear audience” http://news.bbc.co.uk/2/hi/programmes/newsnight/8418356.stm . That one was actually the Chief Scientific Adviser to the British Government says lots about the sad state of modern science.
I believe that a couple of months ago a commenter here explained this thusly. Current UK grapes:
Are cold-adapted hybrids from N. Am.;
Are often grown in greenhouses, etc. or are otherwise coddled;
Often require sugar-added boosting to produce adequate alcohol (sugar wasn’t cheaply available back then);
Aren’t grown as far north as they were then;
Aren’t commercially viable, but are hobbyists’ enterprises..
I’m not a warmist, but just to confirm that you can definitely grow grapes in southern England at least at the moment. We’ve had a vine in our garden for the last two years and produced a reasonable crop – for eating, not wine-making though.
There is a commercial vineyard within 15 miles or so of us, FWIW. This is south Oxfordshire.
I’ve tried some of their stuff and it was ok, but I’m no expert.
Now, if the MWP wine really was plonk, consider that it might have been produced primarily as communion wine. The monks, not being daft, would have imported decent stuff from France for actual drinking! 🙂
If the Romans really did grow grapes near Hadrian’s wall and produce wine out of it, I wonder if anyone had the sense to lay any down, and is it drinkable yet?
🙂
@Mike E:
fermented for hundred of years? Who knows. But if not, you’d still be able to make a good jelly out of it. A little tart, though.
Wine pulled from casks of sunken Greek ships was said to pour like molassas.
MikeE (16:09:37) : – Before you rush out and buy a commercial vinyard – a word of caution.
“Parts Of UK Could Be Too Hot For Wine-Making By 2080, Research Suggests” (if CRU forecasts of temperature increases are correct in other words)
http://www.sciencedaily.com/releases/2008/05/080526000353.htm
You might want to consider investing in the Orkney Islands instead.
Though you could weigh this against the comforting thought that they have been wrong in their predictions so far.
Graeme from Melbourne (14:51:02) :
Bob Kutz (09:10:44) :
And, after further review, I should’ve read a few more of Pam’s posts before commenting.
———————–
I can’t imagine anything more insulting to Pamela than implying that she’s a warmist alarmist.
Oh, hold on ….. you could have called her a Democrat*.
(*you really need to spend a lot of time on here to follow along sometimes).
I see two problems with the Met Office 2010 warm winter forecast and a similar 2010 yearly warm forecast. An identical problem is in their next decadal forecast and their long term forecast which calls for a 4 degrees C rise by 2060 [or 0.08 degrees per year] . First they wrongly seem to predict warming only because the factors that cause cooling are deliberately left off or underestimated. Secondly , the warming impact of El Nino’s is over estimated when other natural cycles are in their cool mode.The computer can only predict warming under these conditions . During the last cooler period in Europe [ 1962-1987] the NAO, AO, AMO and PDO were in the negative or in the cool mode majority of the time .[ like today] Of the 10 EL Nino’s during this period only 3 seemed to warm the temperatures during the winter . Unless the El Nino is mostly or strongly moderate or strong, other natural cooling factors tend to overide the warming effect. This is apparent currently where a negative PDO, negative NAO, negative AO and a near negative AMO are causing colder than normal winters despite the El Nino. In my opinion all Met Office forecasts which only call for UNPRECEDENTED WARMING until 2060 will all prove to be useless and wrong unless they correct their forecasts. You know that there is something fundamentally wrong with forecasts that only predict warming for 50 years in the face clear evidence to the contrary. Neither climate nor weather is warm all the time in the Northern Hemisphere at least.
Norwegian “scientist” disagrees with Peter and his dad: http://wattsupwiththat.com/2009/12/09/picking-out-the-uhi-in-global-temperature-records-so-easy-a-6th-grader-can-do-it/
Here: http://translate.google.co.uk/translate?hl=en&sl=no&u=http://www.aftenposten.no/meninger/debatt/article3442022.ece?service=print
“As a check the temperature development in the United States that are calculated from 1218 stations, compared with results from 70 stations that are believed to be little affected by such changes. The results are almost identical.”
Is this criticism valid?
A CRU accurate forecast is a “very rare and exiting event” only known after a hacker intervention in its computers.
Jimmy Haigh (15:28:45) :
I reckon that Bob is lucky Pam hasn’t been around today. She’s a redhead and she knows how to use it.
Richard (16:28:30) :
MikeE (16:09:37) : – Before you rush out and buy a commercial vinyard – a word of caution.
“Parts Of UK Could Be Too Hot For Wine-Making By 2080, Research Suggests” (if CRU forecasts of temperature increases are correct in other words)
http://www.sciencedaily.com/releases/2008/05/080526000353.htm
————–
I’ve read similar comments about the French wine industry ….
…… and now back to the real world:
Robert Parker described the 2007 vintage in the Southern Rhone as “a truly historic and profoundly great vintage…may be the most compelling vintage of any viticultural region I have ever tasted…the flawless 2007 Châteauneuf-du-Papes I tasted…were unforgettable” . We would have to agree. Not surprisingly, it is all being snapped up with tremendous speed by buyers from around the world. from:
http://www.theweekwineclub.com/wine/cdp.php
Don’t you all just hate 380 ppm.
Re: the MWP
See this link.
http://www.londononline.co.uk/history/thames/3/
which says
In 1063 it is recorded that it was frozen over for fourteen weeks, and again in 1076. In 1434 it was frozen over below London Bridge, as far down as Gravesend, and the frost lasted from November 24th to February 10th.
So in the ‘balmy’ days of the MWP, the Thames froze over for 14 weeks. An event which is regularly cited as proof of the LIA – and an event which has not been seen on anything like that sort of scale for almost 50 years.