Jan Janssen's presentation on Solar Cycle 24 hints at Dalton or Maunder type minimum ahead

David Archibald forwarded me this PowerPoint presentation from Jan Janssens which he presented on October 22nd. It has some very interesting slides and is a good summary of the current debate over solar cycle 24.

I’ve put the entire slide show online in the post below at 50% size, as the PDF download of the PowerPoint document is quite large. For those that want it, you’ll find it at the end of the post mirrored on WUWT’s file system so that better bandwidth can help out.

Janssens1

Janssens2

Janssens3

Janssens4

Janssens5

Janssens6

Janssens7

Janssens8

Janssens9

Janssens10

Janssens11

Janssens12

Janssens13

Janssens14

Janssens15

Janssens16

Janssens17

Janssens18

Janssens19

Janssens20

Janssens21

Janssens22

Janssens23

Janssens24

Janssens25

Janssens26

Janssens27

Janssens28

Janssens29

Janssens30

The PDF of the PowerPoint (with full sized graphs) is available here

Warning, large file 5.6MB

Advertisements

  Subscribe  
newest oldest most voted
Notify of
Dena

While the slides are good, it would help out a great deal if words describing the slides could be provided in text or mp3 format. I don’t understand what some of the slides are showing and would like to know more.

Curiousgeorge

So we’re still in the foreplay mode, right? Well, that’s okay. The next few months should be interesting. Especially if it goes the way the author expects. That would drive Gore, et al, completely bonkers – oh wait. He’s already there.

hotrod

Is there any text discussion that is supposed to go with this presentation, and make sense of these slides and put them in context? The power point is just a collection of random graphics with no context. For someone not deeply involved in solar cycle watching, a lot of those charts have very little meaning without some discussion of what they are showing and why it is important.
If Jan Janssen does not have such a text presentation to go with the slides perhaps one of our more experienced sun watchers could elaborate on what the charts show.
For example in the second page graphic the bottom of the image has a bar chart (or what appears to look like a bar chart) but I have no clue what it is trying to communicate. It was probably explained in a verbal presentation but without that elaboration it is just a visual noise to me.
Larry

Capn Jack Walker

I only really come here for discussions on mermaids.
But if I was of the gloom and doom, henny Penny and the sky is burning set I would call this bad news for their hysteria and hysterical destroy the economy to save the penguin children of planet no make that the universe. Children are children everywhere no matter how many tentacles or flippers.
But as a skeptic looking at science, I would ask the question where is the global response at a possible scenario more significant statistically of a cooling planet, to states that have seemed to occur from time to time.
World food production stalling and energy supplies crumbling thru inefficient bureacratic dismemeberment.
Much as I would like to stick a cooling scenario into the climate terrorists, a cooling planet means a lot of dead people, children and the elderly and those at the bottom rungs.

SunSword

I concur with the need for some text. Some of the slides simply cannot be used without explanatory text. As a prime example, slide numbered 5. No legend. No labeling of X or Y axes. No context.
Slide 11 could use some over lay text with arrows to point to SC23 (presumably the red dot) and the two circled blue dots (presumably SC15 and SC 17) and also provide the dates for SC15 & SC17 (when presenting for a lay audience).
That said — obviously this presentation was made to be talked to, and not for a lay audience — overall I think it looks quite good!

Douglas DC

Capn Jack Walker (11:29:01) :
“Much as I would like to stick a cooling scenario into the climate terrorists, a cooling planet means a lot of dead people, children and the elderly and those at the bottom rungs.”
Fear cold,warm no.History shows this but it seems few listen.
Split atoms,not Birds…

AnonyMoose

Many of these images have been shown before, but with the corresponding narration would form a nice summary for someone who hasn’t encountered the story in such detail. Of course, that’s just what the live presentation was for… until the last part, where it gets into detail of the study evidence.

Capn Jack Walker (11:29:01) : “I only really come here for discussions on mermaids.”
Arrrr! And instead, we show you yards and yards of fishy science.

That’s the problem with models and clusters of models… they all depend on the assumptions of the models.
Haven’t we gone through this issue with multiple models of “climate change” being used as “proof”? Models are guesses when they can’t be exactly backfit to history.
The longer the cycle, the less backfit.

David Alan

Jan Janssen has a pretty nifty web page regarding spotless days. It might prove worthwhile to go check it out:
http://users.telenet.be/j.janssens/Spotless/Spotless.html
While it might not explain most of the graphs in the presentation, it does whet the appetite.

Looks suspiciously like the modern maxima is about the biggest amplitude we have ever been able to measure. Sure glad it has ended, and with it comes the snows to rian on Al Gore’s hoax.
Sure does show the problem with trying to predict when we have so little data.
I agree, a video of the slides being presented and the spoken words would be a huge benefit.

tallbloke

Banzai mode
Roll up Roll up ! It’s the Solar-cycle Sunspot Seeking Speculation Special !
Will there be…
More than 60 sunspots per month at solar maximum…?
Less than 60 sunspots per month at solar maximum…?
No sunspots at all…?
PLACE BETS NOW !
/Banzai mode

pwl

Very interesting… and challenging to comprehend… lots of technical buzz words that need to perculate through my brain and be illuminated by The Googler… good thing it’s been Sesame Street week at the Googler… maybe Grover can help me out… a video of the presentation to learn more about it from Jan Janssen himself (in English if possible) would be awesome!
Oh, his web site is pretty good. It will take time to digest just like a full thanksgiving turkey dinner does. Yum. [:)]

Ted Annonson

Some of these charts, with explanations can be found at http://users.telenet.be/j.janssens/Spotless/Spotless.html .
Now, I have a question about the last sunspot. It had reverse polarity, so, was it a late SC23( to high in latitude), an early SC25, or just a badly confused SC24 spot?

So when are our politicians going to take serious note of what is happening with the sun? As the are hiking up our energy and water prices as a response to global warming whilst the world cools then what of those who cant afford to eat or heat?
http://www.twawki.wordpress.com

Ron de Haan

I like the presentation because it presents “an open mind approach” towards the different theories. Thanks for posting this.
The essence of the message (consensus) to the general public and our Governments is the conclusion that if the current minimum lasts up to Juli 2010 (less than 8 months from now) we will be in Dalton like territory and if it persists for a longer period of a few more years, we will be in Maunder Minimum like territory.
This is a bomb under the AGW consensus and it should be pushed.
We should make preparations for either scenario.

Adam Gallon

Well, Cap’n Jack.
The answer, tis a simple one!
CO2 can be blamed for warming, we emit a lot of it during our activities, thus it’s a taxable commodity.
When global temps take a nose-dive, something we’re emitting can’t be blamed, thus no additional revenue to be blown on useless beaurocrats.
Admitting such, by preparing for what we’re going to do when things get a touch chilly, would be tantamount to admitting that any taxes on CO2 are simply revenue-raising schemes.
So, no preparations can be made.

tallbloke

An interesting question of what a “Dalton Scenario” might mean is raised in the historical context of the arctic warming which took place around 1815-1820. Large amounts of ice melted off Greenland and ships attempted the northwest passage. Could it be that cold visited on the temperate latitudes while the arctic warmed?
From ‘the Age of Wonder’ by Richard Holmes
“From further afield there came reports of climate change: huge sheets of thawing pack ice were sighted off Greenland, melting snowcaps seen in Alpine mountains, and unprecedented river spates and flooding were recorded throughout Europe. Banks (President of Royal Society) was not disposed to panic at these strange phenomena.’ Some of us flatter ourselves that our Climate will be improved and may be restored to its ancient state, when grapes ripened in Vineyards here’” [p383]
Then, polar explorer William Parry recorded a latter meeting with Banks before attempting the North West Passage: “…he opened the map which he had just constructed and in which the situation is shown, of that enormous mass of ice which has lately disappeared from the Eastern coast of Greenland…” [p395]
The first was in 1815, the second in 1819
H.T. to disremembered WUWT reader.

dhmo

I am waiting for some fool to say it is anthropogenic and we should all feel guilty. Then the media will pick it up and demand action. Here in Australian we have had very severe fires in Victoria. The reason? Well some members of the state goverment worship satan and so they caused the fires. Obvious really! Perhaps a SCM could be developed to prove our guilt.

Curiousgeorge

The Frost Spirit
HE comes, – he comes, – the Frost Spirit comes!
You may trace his footsteps now
On the naked woods and the blasted fields
And the brown hill’s withered brow.
He has smitten the leaves of the gray old trees
Where their pleasant green came forth,
And the winds, which follow wherever he goes,
Have shaken them down to earth.
He comes, – he comes, – the Frost Spirit comes!
From the frozen Labrador,
From the icy bridge of the northern seas,
Which the white bear wanders o’er,
Where the fisherman’s sail is stiff with ice,
And the luckless forms below
In the sunless cold of the lingering night
Into marble statues grow!
He comes, – he comes, – the Frost Spirit comes!
On the rushing Northern blast,
And the dark Norwegian pines have bowed
As his fearful breath went past.
With an unscorched wing he has hurried on,
Where the fires of Hecla glow
On the darkly beautiful sky above
And the ancient ice below.
He comes, – he comes, – the Frost Spirit comes!
And the quiet lake shall feel
The torpid touch of his glazing breath,
And ring to the skater’s heel;
And the streams which danced on the broken rocks,
Or sang to the leaning grass,
Shall bow again to their winter chain,
And in mournful silence pass.
He comes, – he comes, – the Frost Spirit comes!
Let us meet him as we may,
And turn with the light of the parlor-fire
His evil power away;
And gather closer the circle ’round,
When the firelight dances high,
And laugh at the shriek of the baffled Fiend
As his sounding wing goes by!
John Greenleaf Whittier

Livingstone experiment has number of uncertainties about it, but if all magnetic events are controlled by a single driver, then this graph showing the gradual decay in intensity of the Polar fields, leads to the same conclusion.
http://www.vukcevic.talktalk.net/LP-project1.gif

David Alan

@tallbloke (12:43:07) :
“More than 60 sunspots per month at solar maximum…?
Less than 60 sunspots per month at solar maximum…?
No sunspots at all…?”
Bonzai Mode
While I’m not a betting man, I will make a prediction that solar max will be lower than a SSN of 55. I don’t see SC24 peaking either. I make a bold prediction that SC24 will be ‘flat topped'(having no peak). You think minimum this go around is hard to determine, wait until SC24’s SSN hovers between 45-55 for 6 to 8 months. Won’t that be a doozie. Toss in some nice spotless days during that time and voila, you got spectacular written all over it.
/Bonzai

John Silver

He doesn’t say anything about the correlation between solar cycle length and global temperature anomalies.

TJA

For the millions of warm years immediately before glaciation started, there were fifty species of great apes. The cold killed off all but us, the chimps, the gorillas, and the orangutan.

Curiousgeorge

Btw, John Greenleaf Whittier was born at the beginning of the Dalton Minimum (December 17, 1807 – September 7, 1892)

Paul James

Found this gem about Copenhagen in the Daily Telegraph’s Finance pages
http://blogs.telegraph.co.uk/finance/edmundconway/100001825/the-real-story-at-the-g20/
and inside it was another gem from the UK Met Office
“Do global temperature trends over the last decade falsify climate predictions?”
http://www.metoffice.gov.uk/corporate/pressoffice/2009/global_temperatures_09.pdf

gary gulrud

Janssens starts his spotless day count at Rmax of prior cycle. The curve begun in “A looot of spotless days” has clearly been tracing out a 1000 plus count over the past 18 months.
An average cycle is 11 years long, weak cycles are longer than strong, weak cycles take longer to run to max than short cycles, QED, Rmax will not come before 2014. This means cycle 24 is not a repeat of the 10-15 sort, i.e., a Grand Minimum(as far as we know them).
Note cycles 5-7(Dalton) were reversed in proportion of their rise to max versus fall from, normally 0.382:0.618, meaning Rmax could well be 2015 or 2016. Cycles 5 & 6 had a max of about 50.

Bill Illis

Thanks Paul James 14:38 for the link.
Trend for 1999 to 2008 after removing the impact of the ENSO – 0.00C per decade.
Now we’ll have to wait for the adjustments from the AMO and other ocean cycles as well. The 2007-08 La Nina just woke up a few climate scientists to the impact of the ENSO again and now they have to account for it. If the AMO goes down in the near future as forecast, then they will be forced to incorporate it as well and then there will be soul-searching.
Phil Jones just did a pre-emptive strike on the AMO in his latest co-authored paper. They changed it into a white noise series – lol.
http://www.atmos.colostate.edu/ao/ThompsonPapers/TWJK_JClimate2009_revised.pdf

matt v.

We may not have to wait long for the temperatures to change. Here is what happened fairly recently after extended solar minimum kind of periods
When ever we have had at least 3 years of low solar activity [sunspot #5-10 or less]
1797 -1799 Dalton Minimum cold period
1888-1890 followed by 3- 5 years of cooling weather
1900-1902 followed by 10 years of cold weather [AMO and winter NAO negative too]
2007-2009 ?
For 4 years of little or no solar sunspot activity
1821 -1824 Dalton period
1911-1914 part of one of the coldest periods this century [AMO negative]
I am not saying that the low temperatures are the result of low solar activity primarily since the natural cycles like AMO and NAO were clearly also in cool modes for some of the above dates, but there does seem to be some association

Gacooke

Boy that metoffice paper does a great job of obfuscating the sorry state of global (non)warming over the last decade.
It took me a while to figure out what they were plotting on Figure 2.8b. It’s basically a control chart telling how well actual temperatures conform to their marketbasket of climate simulations (black line). The actual changes plot below the model line every year since 1994!
GISS and NCDC temps have been flat or negative since 2004, HadCRUT3 even longer.
In chemistry, when you get three or so points falling on the same side of the trend line in a control chart, you become suspicious of your calibration. If you have four points in a row falling near 2 SD off (the 90% line) as HadCRUT3 from 1998 thru 2001, something is seriously wrong!

matt v.

Paul James
The article you quoted
“Do global temperature trends over the last decade falsify climate predictions?”
The Met Office used 1999 to 2008 temperature anomaly rise and used .07C per decade rise for their comments. Had they looked at 2001-2009[to date] ,they would have said -0.009C per year. It would have made the case much worse. They clearly expect warming to resume in the next few years based on some near-term forecasts . We will have to see how good these near term forecasts really are?
http://www.woodfortrees.org/plot/hadcrut3gl/from:2001/to:2010/plot/hadcrut3gl/from:2001/to:2010/trend

Paul James

Thanks Bill
I owe a sincere if belated hat tip to Daily Telegraph poster Catweazle for the Met Office link.
I follow Catweazles posts in the DT and always enjoy reading his jousts with the warmist poster Slioch.
Nicely spotted Catweazle Sir !

Wondering Aloud

It is much worse then we thought. Nasa no longer has the soho video or anything available. I frequently use the little icon in the left margin and watch the movie of the last month or so. Hasn’t been available in about 10 days.

rbateman

Add to those slides the last month, where spots have formed from N-S aligned magnetics which fail quickly. This is 90 degrees out from where a spot is most likely to thrive, and that would be E-W.
You could say the Sun is not getting wound up as much as it is being short-circuited.
More of the N-S anomaly appears with spots material flows connecting directly to the poles, as seen best in SOHO EIT 195 or STEREO EUVI 195. Watch for them. Whether such connections are normal or at a greater pace I don’t know.

rbateman

twawki (12:48:38) :
So when are our politicians going to take serious note of what is happening with the sun?

The majority of them are not paying attention to much of anything going on outside, let alone the sun.
matt v. (16:11:27) :
To that end, it’s much easier to make the case that solar activity lull and cooler climate are associated somehow, than that they are not.
Safe to say that they go together like soup & sandwhich.
To be expected. The normal happenstance.

Murray

Has anyone tried to determine what the spotless days would be at the ability to detect sunspots that existed in 1909, or in 1810? How many of the “tiny tims” should not be counted to get an apples to apples comparison?

Adam from Kansas

If Tallbloke’s theory is correct than because of the quiet sun we should see some rather cool SST’s after El Modoki ends, considering they have dropped while El Modoki rose to its current peak, and Tallbloke having predicted El Modoki and how it would be now himself.
Also, does Leif not check solar threads on Sundays I thought he’d be all over this thread by now?

Gacooke

What they thought was CO2 signal is just solar noise.

Dr A Burns

Paul James,
This was interesting in your link: http://www.metoffice.gov.uk/corporate/pressoffice/2009/global_temperatures_09.pdf
“The simulations rule out (at the 95% level) zero trends for intervals of 15 yr or more, suggesting that an observed absence of warming of this duration is needed to create a discrepancy with the expected present-day warming rate. ”
I assume that this implies that another 4 years of global cooling will force the IPCC and the world’s pollies to eat humble pie !?
It is more likely our pollies will then claim that their carbon taxes have been a dramatic success in preventing warming.

I don’t believe it will be a Maunder Minimum-style collapse, but the nearest I can think of would be the Spoerer Minimum that preceded it.
Dr David Hathaway (to his great credit, I might add) has come clean and admitted that his predictions were wholly wrong and that the solar science community has no real visibility as to what will happen next with SC24.
Apart from Leif Svalgaard who predicted a low peak of for SC24 but (wisely) neglected to predict WHEN. So his prediction has yet to be falsified.
And the late Theodor Landscheidt who predicted the appearance of the last three solar maxima and predicted six years in advance that SC24 would be very quiet on the basis of the Sun’s motion about the barycentre of the solar system – but of course that would be pseudoscience wouldn’t it, Dr Svalgaard?

Ken

I think it is clear this sunspot activity is because of CO2

rbateman

Murray (17:52:15) :
Yes, and the follwing days in bold would NOT be counted
2009 10 20 71 11 10 1 -999 A0.0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
2009 10 21 71 0 0 0 -999 A0.0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
2009 10 22 72 0 0 0 -999 A0.0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
2009 10 23 73 30 60 1 -999 A0.0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
2009 10 24 76 21 120 0 -999 A0.0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
2009 10 25 76 28 130 0 -999 A1.2 1 0 0 0 0 0 0
2009 10 26 81 29 190 0 -999 A6.2 3 0 0 4 0 0 0
2009 10 27 82 29 260 0 -999 A4.2 5 0 0 3 0 0 0
2009 10 28 80 26 340 0 -999 A4.4 1 0 0 1 0 0 0
2009 10 29 77 19 380 0 -999 A2.7 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
2009 10 30 75 13 320 0 -999 A2.8 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
2009 10 31 75 0 0 0 -999 A7.5 1 0 0 0 0 0 0
2009 11 01 72 0 0 0 -999 A1.4 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
2009 11 02 71 0 0 0 -999 A0.0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
2009 11 03 72 0 0 0 -999 A0.0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
2009 11 04 71 0 0 0 -999 A0.0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
2009 11 05 71 15 50 1 -999 A0.0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
2009 11 06 71 16 10 0 -999 A0.0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
2009 11 07 71 11 10 0 -999 A0.0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
2009 11 08 71 0 0 0 -999 A0.0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0

John A (18:57:56) :
Dr Svalgaard, even if I finally disagree with him, makes me think. I could think and be wrong. [snip]
REPLY: Dr Svalgaard probably won’t be back, he was insulted one too many times and got tired of it. I’m tired of it too. You know who you are. – Anthony

Awwww… I don’t even remember the [snip] part. I value Dr. Svalgaard. Please don’t go away. You’re a better man that.

rbateman

Wondering Aloud (17:23:53) :
Bookmark this page:
http://www.robertb.darkhorizons.org/DeepSolarMin9.htm
The color composite images are intended to show the active regions that don’t produce sunspots as well as those that do. I try to keep it current.
Leif has made available an archive for all the STEREO images Ahead & Behind that I can produce. The Active Regions are what he bases his predictions on, and if L&P effect continues, one of the last places we can turn to see what’s under the hood of spotlessness.

John F. Hultquist

“Dr Svalgaard probably won’t be back,…”
That will be a shame. Just yesterday (I think) he answered Ted Annonnson’s @ 12:47:22 question about the last sunspot. And, of course, he could add the text for the images now before us. I think it is extraordinary that he has coached us along for so long. Amazing, really.

The reason why the alarmists and the media do not freak out equally at the risk of a new Maunder Minimum is that it is something we cannot pass a law to change. It also ‘detracts from the message’ and portrays CO2 pollution as a good thing in case a maunder minimum is at hand. You would think they’d get the point that they could still make many millions of dollars in research grants trying to predict how bad it will be and when it will end, but most of them will have to go back to school to get a solar astronomy degree to qualify…

Frankly, Anthony, you should have banned that guy, he was way over the top in his rudeness to Dr. Svalgaard. Svalgaard has a right to be pissed.
REPLY: Its a catch-22, banning people. But we are going to be more vigilant now with everybody in snipping. We often get over 1000 comments a day, reading and deciding each one we invariably make mistakes. -A

MDR

“Dr Svalgaard probably won’t be back,…”
I would like to thank Leif for donating his time and knowledge to discussions on this board.

savethesharks

rbateman: “To that end, it’s much easier to make the case that solar activity lull and cooler climate are associated somehow, than that they are not.
Safe to say that they go together like soup & sandwhich.
To be expected. The normal happenstance.”

Yes. The answer has been staring us in the face….even if remotely….
Chris
Norfolk, VA, USA