It’s not looking good for the coming Halloween. Button up those trick or treaters. Fall, we hardly knew ya. Here’s a roundup of interesting cold weather events in the last week. Check out the forecast graphic at the bottom of this story.
From Bill Steffen, WOOD-TV.
October 22nd. A weather station in Berchtesgaden National Park in Bavaria has recorded the coldest temperature ever in Germany during the month of October. The thermometer dipped to -24.3C or -11.7F. Clear skies, calm winds and fresh snow was the perfect combination for the record chill. The city of Augsburg, Germany has been 9.3 degrees colder than average during the past week. Prague in the Czech Republic is supposed to be in the mid 50s at this time of year. They had 3 days with temperatures stuck in the 30s and even picked up some snow flurries.
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October Cold Snap Sets 82-Year Record
High On Tuesday Was Only 47 Degrees
October in Chicago is usually equal parts balmy T-shirt weather and nippy light jacket temperatures, but if it’s felt more like winter coat weather this year, it’s not your imagination. Chicago has spent the last 17 days with below-average temperatures, and a high of a mere 47 degrees made Tuesday the coldest Oct. 13 in 82 years, CBS 2’s Mary Kay Kleist says.
Comparing temperatures for the first 14 days of October 2008 to this year seems like comparing the tropics to the tundra.
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From Bill Steffen, WOOD-TV. October 14th. The biggest snowstorm in 25 years hit central Europe with amounts up to five feet atop Zugspitze, the highest peak in Germany. In Austria, two day snowfalls of 2-3 feet caused some ski areas to have their earliest-ever opening day. The Czech Republic, Slovakia and Poland were hit hard. Up to 20″ of snow fell in the mountains of the Czech Republic. Trees and power lines were toppled, with up to 700,000 customers without power during the unusual cold wave. In southern Poland three people froze to death.
Huge waves destroyed a pier at Sopot in northern Poland. Tens of thousands of Ukrainians were without power after the storm. A major rail line from Switzerland to Austria was blocked by trees felled from the weight of the snow. The Polish government mobilized troops to assist the clean-up.
Temperatures dropped to 11 above zero in southern Poland, extremely cold for this time of year. Back in the U.S., check out the snow on top of Mt. Washington in New Hampshire. Mt. Washington hasn’t been above freezing in nine days. They had over a foot of snowfall in the first two weeks of October and temperatures for the month are more than 7 degrees cooler than average.
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Record-breaking cold this morning, widespread frost
Termperatures are rebounding after what was record-breaking cold morning in Charlotte.
Temperatures fell below the freezing mark for the first time since last winter in Charlotte, and frost was reported across the metro region. A number of National Weather Service official reporting stations had sub-freezing lows.
This morning’s unofficial low at Charlotte/Douglas International Airport was 30 degrees. That is the coldest since March 5, when the low was 29. This morning’s reading broke the old record for the date, 31 degrees, set in 1948.
A low of 28 degrees was record in Albemarle, North Wilkesboro and Rutherfordton. The morning low was 30 degrees in Salisbury and Statesville. It dropped to 32 degrees in Gastonia, Hickory, Monroe and Rock Hill.
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From NOAA’s Climate Prediction Center:
pwc (16:23:53) :
How many “weathers” does it take to make a “climate?”
——————-
It’s not a frivolous question, since weather is concrete and climate is abstract.
How many thoughts does it take to make an action? goes along the same lines.
If you’re asked “what’s the climate like?” and you say “mild and wet winters, warm, dry summers, some windy days in the fall” you can be asked for more detail until the cows come home.
I don’t know how a whole “ology” can be about nothing other than averages, especially when it claims to cover the entire fluid make-up of the planet along with its interactions with the non-fluid part and the energetic input of the sun.
I LIVE IN WATERLOO IA, AND RECALL THAT ONE DAY (I THINK IN 1983), THE TEMP WITH WIND CHILL WAS – 93 F. IN MY RECOLLECTION, IT WAS -38 DEG WITH 50 MPH WINDS.
JUST OPENED UP MY UTILITY BILL FOR OCTOBER. THEY PUBLISH A YEAR OVER YEAR AVERAGE TEMP FOR THE MONTH. THIS MONTH’S AVERAGE WAS 7 DEG COLLER THAN LAST YEAR’ S OCTOBER AVERAGE. FOR THE PAST SEVERAL YEARS, THE AVERAGE YEAR OVER YEAR MONTHLY TEMPS HAVE (EXCEPT FOR ONE MONTH) GONE DOWN.
DO UTILITY COMPANIES IN OTHER AREAS PUBLISH MONTHLY TEMPERATURE
AVERAGES. WOULD BE INTERESTING TO COMPARE.
ARE WE GOING TO” RETURN TO THE DAYS OF YESTERYEARS” (IS THAT FROM THE “LONE RANGER” OPENER?—-ANY OLD TIMERS ON THIS BLOG ?)
In Northern Colorado, we have had the coldest October in anyone’s memory. More like January than October.
Gene Nemetz (19:38:55) : NOAA projection for Nov 09, Dec 09, Jan 10 :
http://www.cpc.noaa.gov/products/predictions/long_range/lead01/off01_temp.gif
They are projecting a turnaround in temperatures as compared to Oct 09. We will see for ourselves their accuracy.
Yes I had pointed this out earlier somewhere. This would be a complete reversal of the October weather and we shall see.
What would be interesting, and what I couldn’t find, was the October prediction. Can you locate that? They cleverly hide their previous predictions from us for postmortems.
I may be missing it, but I only find a single location in Colorado. If true that would mean they have no input from the colder high altitude sites.
42572476000 GRAND JUNCTIO 39.12 -108.53 1475 1491S 29MVxxno-9A 3COOL GRASS/SHRUBC3 29
In Wyoming I see 2 listings:
42572569000 CASPER/NATRON 42.92 -106.47 1612 1625U 50FLxxno-9A 2COOL GRASS/SHRUBC2 15
42572576000 LANDER/HUNT, 42.82 -108.73 1694 1729R -9MVxxno-9A-9COOL GRASS/SHRUBC2 9
Utah appears to have one listing:
42572572000 SALT LAKE CIT 40.78 -111.97 1288 1295U 1072FLxxno-9A 4COOL DESERT C3 59
Montana has one listing I can find:
42572677000 BILLINGS/LOGA 45.80 -108.53 1088 1000U 81HIxxno-9x-9COOL GRASS/SHRUBC3 123
New Mexico has 2 listings:
42572365000 ALBUQUERQUE/I 35.05 -106.62 1620 1587U 589MVxxno-9A 2WARM GRASS/SHRUBC3 48
So that means that the entire Rocky Mountain Region is represented by 6 thermometers. This is an area that includes 4 of the 10 largest states in the U.S. and extends from The Canadian Border to the Rio Grand in a band 400-500 miles wide, and ranges in altitude from Red Bluff Reservoir at 2,842 feet elevation in New Mexico to 14,440ft in Colorado. Total area is 470,539 sq miles (1218690 sq km).
That is one thermometer for each 78423 sq mi (203115 sq km). That would equal a square 280 miles (451km) on a side.
—————————————— sq mi—- sq km
The 4th largest state in the Union — Montana 147,042 380,837
The 5th largest state in the Union — New Mexico 121,589 314,914
The 8th largest state in the Union — Colorado 104,094 269,602
The 10th largest state in the Union — Wyoming 97,814 253,337
=============================================
Because of the Mountain barrier that runs down the center of Colorado, it can in the winter time be 70 deg F in Grand Junction, and -20 deg F in the front range just outside Denver with 3 ft of snow on the ground.
If they think this is a representative sample of temperatures from the Mountain Region I would like to know what they were smoking when they selected the thermometers to keep.
Larry
We’re having a very mild October in Spain. Yesterday evening it was wonderful in Madrid, you wouldn’t even need a sweater. But with all this cold in northern Europe, I don’t want to know how it will feel when the wind finally starts blowing from the North… brrrrr!
If it is to be believed Arctic Ice has REDUCED by 7,447,813 sq kms on the 25th! Something tells me this is not right. What could be the possible explanation? If not a major undersea volcanoe going off it must be a mistake.
sorry that should be 79,843 sq kms
R Shearer (10:03:22) :
How far back do the Bavarian records go, I wonder?
About 1998. Private station and a microclimate totally not representative for region or Germany.
Nylo (01:37:13) :
We’re having a very mild October in Spain. Yesterday evening it was wonderful in Madrid, you wouldn’t even need a sweater. But with all this cold in northern Europe, I don’t want to know how it will feel when the wind finally starts blowing from the North… brrrrr!
The cold is over in all of Europe. Rest of the month into November will be mild.
The news about a record breaking cold snap in the National Park Berchtesgaden/Bavaria is a good exmple how a single,isolated information can be completely misleading. Here in Bavaria we enjoy a pretty warm october. In the mountains we had some snow,probably the earliest wintery snowstorm in a decade,but far from being historic. The record cold was in fact measured at one single place,the famous “Funtensee”. The Funtensee is a small lake in the mountains,situated in a hole at an altitude of 1600 meters nn. In clear nights all the cold air drops, and even in summer the temperature there has already dropped to minus 10 degrees C. So this is not about climate,not even about weather, but about hydrogeology and topography. Nevertheless it could be a fascinating and beautiful place to visit (like all of Bavaria) for anybody around here.
Best wishes from the bavarian mountains
Reinhard Bösch
Re Terryskinner
I mailed to that Swiss glaciology page and got following answer:
1) When will be 2009 glacier advance/retreat data included on your website?
We usually have most of the results compiled by end of December and will update our website
2) Which glacier length is compared each year? Lowest summer extent or some kind of annual monthly averages?
We do not really determine the absolute glacier length rather than the change at the snout of successive years. It is the change between the actual surveys which we try to carry out at the time of the summer minimum.
Ahh Mount Washington, my favorite hiking destination.
Here is their January temp profile starting in 1933 to present.
Doesn’t show much of a warming trend now does it?
http://i38.tinypic.com/rvhsv8.jpg
Pamela Gray (10:49:01) :
I have been studying that Jet stream recently and it has been a mixed bag of El Nino tracks and La Nina tracks, as if it can’t make up its mind which track to stay in
As it was with the suposed El Nino. The last remnants of SST in Nino area 1+2 were lost in august/september. Now the cold Humboldt´s has emerged along the west coast of SA..
http://weather.unisys.com/surface/sst_anom.html
But, as the coasts along Australia are also cold and the middle of South Pacific it is also, perhaps (I don´t know, perhaps you know it) this time we are observing a singular phenomena. In addition to that if there is no warming up because of increased cloud cover next summer….”what will be, will be…”?
I was in Boston at the Head of the Charles regatta – on Sunday Oct. 18 it snowed – this is the earliest snowfall in Boston I can recall.
From the smack-dab middle of that purple blob above we are taking the passed absence of our cherished ‘Indian Summer’ in stride. September was dry and warm, actually more of both than in August.
Looking ahead is another matter, as cabin fever’s already familiar.
It’s been so wet in Southeastern Pennsylvania, I’ll never get my garlic crop in the ground. First snow flakes cited on 10/15/09 in Philadelphia…. a month early. Gloomy cool wet Summer and Fall has been very challenging for a our market gardening business. We don’t want or need a Dalton or Maunder minimum, so I am praying for the sun will do what it did in the 1980’s and clear away the cold and the muck.
For what it’s worth, the October average for Wichita KS is -7.04 F up to the 25, Oct.
Richard (01:54:29) :
If it is to be believed Arctic Ice has REDUCED by 7,447,813 sq kms on the 25th! Something tells me this is not right. What could be the possible explanation? If not a major undersea volcanoe going off it must be a mistake.
There are other examples of something similar happening, around 15/16 October 2005 for example. I guess Mother Nature isn’t linear!!
Mr Green Genes (13:43:04) : No I guess mother nature is not linear. But I wonder what the explanation of this is.
On the 16th of October 2005 the ice reduced by 16875 Km^2 as per the JAXA data, but this reduction is unprecedented. The 25th of October with very little to no insolation in those latitudes a reduction of 79,843 sq kms. This on top of a very small increase of 17,656 Km^2 on the 24th. Mind you they have published an update reducing this reduction to exactly 30,000 Km^2 but still. Looks like some adjustment of their previous data perhaps. There also seems to be some warm water pouring in from the Pacific still. We will see what todays figures look like.
@Jeff Corbin
Ditto with the garlic crop here in Nebraska, but then we’re smack dab in the middle of the low temperature anomaly. At this stage, I’m considering doing a spring planting.
RR Kampen (03:01:19) : The cold is over in all of Europe. Rest of the month into November will be mild.
I looked up the forecast and here it is:
26 Oct 31 Oct
London 17 17
Paris 17 16
Berlin 14 8
Vienna 14 9
Stockholm 10 7
Moscow 5 2
Bucharest 17 9
Madrid 26 26
Rome 22 17
Athens 23 14
Where exactly will it be warmer for the rest of the month?
WattsUpWithThat—Science Blog of the Year 2009!!
REPLY: Perhaps not, I think Steve McIntyre is more deserving. – Anthony
The Yamal data break was fantastic. I remember how the news struck me! If there is an award for the science story or the year that is it! That single story probably did more for real science than anything else this year. I can understand why you did say that about Steve McIntyre. He has shown quite a bit of persistence.
But on a day to day basis throughout the year WUWT is science blog of the year—IMO.
Don’t short sell yourself Anthony. There has been a lot of valuable science coming from your blog! Many people love this web site!
Richard (22:25:01) :
You could send an email to NOAA asking for Octobers forecast. They may reply.
Richard (15:27:31) :
Where exactly will it be warmer for the rest of the month?
In their dreams.