The "cold war" hits home – October in like a lion, out like a fridge

It’s not looking good for the coming Halloween. Button up those trick or treaters. Fall, we hardly knew ya. Here’s a roundup of interesting cold weather events in the last week. Check out the forecast graphic at the bottom of this story.

http://icecap.us/images/uploads/Oct1-19.jpg

From Bill Steffen, WOOD-TV.

October 22nd. A weather station in Berchtesgaden National Park in Bavaria has recorded the coldest temperature ever in Germany during the month of October. The thermometer dipped to -24.3C or -11.7F.  Clear skies, calm winds and fresh snow was the perfect combination for the record chill.   The city of Augsburg, Germany has been 9.3 degrees colder than average during the past week. Prague in the Czech Republic is supposed to be in the mid 50s at this time of year. They had 3 days with temperatures stuck in the 30s and even picked up some snow flurries.

From CBS-TV in Chicago:

October Cold Snap Sets 82-Year Record

High On Tuesday Was Only 47 Degrees

October in Chicago is usually equal parts balmy T-shirt weather and nippy light jacket temperatures, but if it’s felt more like winter coat weather this year, it’s not your imagination. Chicago has spent the last 17 days with below-average temperatures, and a high of a mere 47 degrees made Tuesday the coldest Oct. 13 in 82 years, CBS 2’s Mary Kay Kleist says.

Comparing temperatures for the first 14 days of October 2008 to this year seems like comparing the tropics to the tundra.

From Bill Steffen, WOOD-TV. October 14th. The biggest snowstorm in 25 years hit central Europe with amounts up to five feet atop Zugspitze, the highest peak in Germany.   In Austria, two day snowfalls of 2-3 feet caused some ski areas to have their earliest-ever opening day.  The Czech Republic, Slovakia and Poland were hit hard.  Up to 20″ of snow fell in the mountains of the Czech Republic.  Trees and power lines were toppled, with up to 700,000 customers without power during the unusual cold wave.  In southern Poland three people froze to death.

Huge waves destroyed a pier at Sopot in northern Poland.  Tens of thousands of Ukrainians were without power after the storm.  A major rail line from Switzerland to Austria was blocked by trees felled from the weight of the snow.   The Polish government mobilized troops to assist the clean-up.

Temperatures dropped to 11 above zero in southern Poland, extremely cold for this time of year.   Back in the U.S., check out the snow on top of Mt. Washington in New Hampshire.  Mt. Washington hasn’t been above freezing in nine days.  They had over a foot of snowfall in the first two weeks of October and temperatures for the month are more than 7 degrees cooler than average.

Record-breaking cold this morning, widespread frost

Posted: Monday, Oct. 19, 2009

Termperatures are rebounding after what was record-breaking cold morning in Charlotte.

Temperatures fell below the freezing mark for the first time since last winter in Charlotte, and frost was reported across the metro region. A number of National Weather Service official reporting stations had sub-freezing lows.

This morning’s unofficial low at Charlotte/Douglas International Airport was 30 degrees. That is the coldest since March 5, when the low was 29. This morning’s reading broke the old record for the date, 31 degrees, set in 1948.

A low of 28 degrees was record in Albemarle, North Wilkesboro and Rutherfordton. The morning low was 30 degrees in Salisbury and Statesville. It dropped to 32 degrees in Gastonia, Hickory, Monroe and Rock Hill.

From NOAA’s Climate Prediction Center:

NCEP_6-10_outlook

Advertisements

105 thoughts on “The "cold war" hits home – October in like a lion, out like a fridge

  1. FYI, Link to Mt. Washington snows is redirecting to Accuweather Premium or Professional, not the image. Delete this comment.

  2. Storms are shaping up for CO all week. It is supposed to snow here in CO Springs. My fingers are crossed for a wicked opening day at Copper Mountain in two weeks!
    Oh, and Wolf Creek, our southernmost ski resort, is opening next weekend. They normally open around Turkey day, often as late as December.
    Mark

  3. We will most likely have a record cold October for northern Wyoming.
    During the first two weeks, there were two or three days where the HIGH never got above 20 – when the normal high is in the low 60s. That’s 40 degrees below normal. The next week looks to be at least 20 degrees below normal for highs.
    My guess is that Buffalo will come in at 8 to 10 degrees BELOW average for the entire month.
    That’s some potatoes.

  4. Record low at Berchtesgaden National Park.
    Mel Brooks would have a field day with this. “Wintertime for Hitler…”?

  5. The record for where I live is Nov 3, 2003 for the earliest snow. The biggest early snows were in the late 1910’s to the mid 1950’s, and they hung around.
    Gives a new meaning to ‘Frost on the Pumpkin”.

  6. Al Gore’s Holy Hologram (09:40:01) :
    I’m quite sure that Obama got the forecast, and opted out of the Eco-blizzard set for Copenhagen. That medal must feel like a millstone around his neck right about now.

  7. The Old man North Pacific is having his way with US and he’s the Engineer on the Siberian Express.El Nino cowers in his crib…

  8. The next week or so isn’t looking to bad here after some frigid weather early in the month (below average on many days, but no 40’s), but there is that forecast outbreak of cold temps. that will descend on the western half of the country.
    According to NOAA AO index is heavily negative, NAO is currently negative as well.

  9. How far back do the Bavarian records go, I wonder?
    Here in the Boulder, CO area, our climate changes all the time. My home grown pumpkins were killed by an early frost and then rotted from ensuing warm weather, so I bought a couple from the grocery.
    It’s common to have a wickedly cold Halloween. It doesn’t stay that way, however.

  10. Is this the Drudge Report?
    I believe in AGW but often visit here to get a dissenting opinion. Citing regional variations in WEATHER patterns does nothing to promote your views and does nothing to assuage my opinion.
    REPLY: Well, get over it, its tagged weather, and I spent 25 years reporting weather. I’ll report weather today, tomorrow, and probably have it etched on my tombstone as well. MSM turns on the bullhorns for record warm weather. The least I can do is point out record cold when it happens. – Anthony

  11. Mike Smith (09:41:20) :
    Record low at Berchtesgaden National Park.
    Mel Brooks would have a field day with this. “Wintertime for Hitler…”?

    Germany is trying to making amends for previous misguided movements.

  12. Well, public opinion about man made Global Warming is in a free fall and events like this are a great help.

  13. I can see what the problem is!
    Your weather hasn’t been ‘corrected’.
    Just phone up Jim Hansen and ask for the corrected temperature. Then you’ll feel much warmer, and be able to go out in your shirt sleeves….
    “That medal must feel like a millstone around his neck right about now.” rbateman
    I suspect that was the idea of giving it to him. Shower him with compliments which cost nothing, then ask him to sign away US independence….

  14. It that bulls-eye in NM real or an artifact?
    Looking at a map of currently reporting stations, it looks to be centered in a “void” in coverage.

  15. Thank heavens.
    After 50+ days of over 100F temps here in South Texas this summer, perhaps we’ll actually have winter again this year!

  16. Is there any organisation planning to demonstrate in Copenhagen against spending tax money to fight “global warming”?

  17. Here in toasty Dublin, we had 19.5 degrees Celsius today as measured by the thermometer in my car and I had to strip down to shirt sleeves when I was sweeping up leaves outside.
    Weather is not climate and all that, but I thnk we deserver it given the lousy three summers we have just had.

  18. Looks like Winter draws on for the US. So time to load up the stove and watch the fun on the run up to a cold Copenhagen :-))

  19. Wow ! All the storms & snow . . . I didn’t think Al Gore could visit so many places in one month.

  20. The jet stream is loopy. There is a US wide break allowing Arctic air to flow into the continent. The wind is cooperating as well as it is blowing directly South right at Canada and us. It returns to a northern breeze along Europe which would explain Ireland’s warmish wave.
    I have been studying that Jet stream recently and it has been a mixed bag of El Nino tracks and La Nina tracks, as if it can’t make up its mind which track to stay in.

  21. Aubs (09:22:51) :
    > FYI, Link to Mt. Washington snows is redirecting to Accuweather Premium or Professional, not the image. Delete this comment.
    The Mt Washington web site is http://www.mountwashington.org/
    It hasn’t been remarkably cold in NH this month. It’s 60F at home right now, Mt Washington is a 100 + miles NNE and is 26F. Normally there’s about a 30F difference between the two sites in the afternoon.
    They take interesting weather in stride (an look forward to it), though they weren’t ready for the 4 foot snow drifts on Oct 14, see the shift change account at http://www.mountwashington.org/weather/comments/ about driving to the other side of the mountain and taking the cog railway up.

  22. Weather vs. climate—
    It may not be good science, but in the end, weather events will shape much of the public’s view on AWG. It seems everyone on the street thinks they can detect climate change without accurate measurements, so events such as these are important.

  23. Roger Sowell (10:02:07) :
    The recent cold wave killed the sugar beet crop in parts of the USA.
    http://www.commodityonline.com/news/Cold-wave-hits-sugar-beets-in-Park-County-22319-3-1.html
    Meanwhile, the eco-nuts want to replace gasoline with bio-fuels. Good luck with that when growing seasons are shorter and colder.
    http://sowellslawblog.blogspot.com/2009/09/mandatory-bio-fuels-very-bad-idea.html
    Thanks for the links Roger.
    You are right.
    It’s difficult enough that we still depend on seasonal crops for our food security.
    Just imagine if we would be out of energy as well.
    These ecopods want us dead.

  24. Last year Dr Walter Williams gave his wife a new snow shovel for Christmas, and he couldn’t understand why she was complaining.
    I’ll bet she isn’t complaining now. 🙂

  25. Here on the south coast of England weather is normal for the time of year. A few days where we need the heat on for a while but not what anybody could call cold. But at least we haven’t had any gales (with global warming we’ll have a lot more gales) or floods (with global warming we’ll have a lot more floods) or droughts (with global warming…. We often do get gales this time of year but this year nothing to report.
    I recall that summer temperatures/heat are reported to be the main drivers of receding or advancing glaciers. We have now had three successive crap summers and it seems that much of Europe is now getting early snowfall and early winter. I wonder if we are going to get advancing glaciers before much longer? And if we do I wonder if anybody will report it.

  26. The more I am thinking about it, it seems to me Mother Nature interferes into human doings. Remember that Napoleon in Russia – went in and got extreme cold winter 1812. Russian offensive against Finland 1939/40 – extreme cold which killed more Soviets than Finnish bullets. Germans at Moscow 1941/42 or at Stalingrad 1942/43 – ditto. Copenhagen and C&T legislative closing in – guess what? Cold!

  27. The winter of 2009-10 killed AGW for everyone on planet earth except Al Gore. And Al Gore is still trying to keep hope alive, trying not to be sued.

  28. Terryskinner:
    You’re right about early snowfall last winter – it was also very extensive across the Alps and was much deeper than normal into late April.
    Then actually they had a warmer than average summer (not hot, hot, just warmer than average) and all the snow build up melted, including all that on the glaciers.
    So no, this summer probably no glacier advance.
    You need a snowy winter, but most importantly, cool summers for glaciers to advance.
    It WAS reported that glaciers near Juneau, Alaska advanced for the first time in decades in 2008, however….
    Time will tell…..

  29. Temperatures in Scandinavia are below or well below the 1961-1990 normal for October so far as well. My own location in Oslo has an average of 3.6C this month compared to the 1961-1990 average of 5.7C and the forecast suggests 2-3 C below for the rest of the month also. The average daily high has been 6.8C, so it hasn’t exactly been t-shirt weather lately.
    Svalbard, however, has temperatures well above the normal so far.

  30. [B]fhreid (10:05:49) :
    Is this the Drudge Report?
    I believe in AGW but often visit here to get a dissenting opinion. Citing regional variations in WEATHER patterns does nothing to promote your views and does nothing to assuage my opinion.[/B]
    Oh, please. When every hurricane, every melted cubic foot of ice in the Arctic, when every tornado, and every high temperature record get tagged by the media as being caused by “global warming” I’d say, “lighten up.”

  31. “doug (10:53:49) :Weather vs. climate—
    It may not be good science, but in the end, weather events will shape much of the public’s view on AWG. It seems everyone on the street thinks they can detect climate change without accurate measurements, so events such as these are important.”
    So, can you tell me who is detecting climate change WITH accurate measurements? Hmmm?

  32. Weather may not be climate, but it was an odd shift to colder conditions, over several months of the winter before last, that led me to begin investigating this issue. If those such as David Archibald are right, we’ll end up ~2 degrees colder before this phase is over. It will be a collection of events such as this one reported here that will make it so.

  33. fhreid (10:05:49) :
    Is this the Drudge Report?
    ______________________________________
    LOL, not everything Anthony posts is intended to be disproof/proof of AGW and, as he points ut, the news media is replete with lack of reporting of cold weather ‘events’. Compare them to the number of ‘hot weather’ events they cover.
    He can’t help that posters will draw conclusions about AGW from this stuff. The scientists who post and read do not. It is interesting information related to the weather, it doesn’t have a ‘deeper’ meaning.

  34. This demostrates the level at which climate change is happening and we’ve reached the tipping point.
    Or perhaps just a good old fashion cold snap!
    I reckon the weather is dropping back to the cold of the 60s and early 70s.
    In the UK in the 60s once october came it was B cold
    Natural variability in this big ole heap of rock hurtling through space and orbiting a huge thermonuclear reactor

  35. Move over, King Tut, the Curse of Copenhagen is the new bad boy in town.
    The weather isn’t the only thing that is jinxed, the reporting is likewise burning up with fever.

  36. Here in central Ohio, weather for Trick or Treating has typically been dry and mild in recent years. I’ve never needed more than a light jacket while escorting the kids around the neighborhood. But the early extended forecast for this year’s beggars is calling for temps in the 40s. This reminds me of trick-or-treating as a child in the 1970s. We often had to wear jackets or thick shirts under our costumes to stay warm!

  37. Woke up to six fresh inches of snow this morning in Breckenridge, CO. It’s very cold and wintry up in Summit County! Our local paper usually links every single weather event around here to “global warming/climate change,” but I haven’t seen the usual alarmist stories for weeks since we’ve had below average temperatures and above average snowfall all “Autumn” starting with the first snowstorm of the season back on Sept. 21. Looks like another snowstorm will roll through Tuesday through Thursday.

  38. 2:45 PM Sunday afternoon in Denver. 31 deg & snow at the house in the SW foothills.
    That’s 32 degrees below our normal afternoon high for this time of year
    3rd snow event of the month. Looks like 3-5″ from this storm (in the SW foothills)
    6″ earlier this week.
    Very significant storm looks to be on tap for Tues night into Wed or Thurs (depending on which model you like)
    Another storm for Halloween into Sunday on tap
    Denver set a record for coldest earliest, earlier in Oct (17 deg – never had been that cold that early in the year.) That day, the high temp was 26, which was only 1 deg above the old record low of 25.
    This is the coldest I have seen here in the 13 years we have lived here.
    It has been a truly extraordinary start to the winter season here.
    FWIW, I have an analog model for predicting Front Range seasonal snowfall & my algorithm is suggesting we should be getting around 150% of normal – we are off to a good start to meeting that forecast.

  39. I’m not sure where that temperature anomaly map at the top of the post came from, but it sure looks to me as though a data point in New Mexico was wildly wrong and throws off the entire region. I would be nice to see a fixed map (or confirmation that the data is accurate. Perhaps it’s one of those data points from the previous month sort of error.

  40. Leif Svalgaard (12:28:43) :
    Robert Wykoff (10:15:42) :
    $10 says we have a +0.6 anomaly for October
    You mean UP from 0.4 in Septermber?
    —————-
    Somehow I don’t think so. ASU unadjusted satellite temps this month are showing barley any increases in temps vs Oct last year (+.03), whereas they had large (+.4) temp differences in September.

  41. 6000+ low maximum records broken or tied in October (page will take forever to load)
    http://www.ncdc.noaa.gov/oa/climate/research/records/index.php?ts=daily&elem=lomx&month=10&day=0&year=2009&sts%5B%5D=US&submitted=Get+Records
    Any possible global temp. reading being like 1998 is going to have a hard time convincing those here in the states.
    The farmer’s almanac is predicting a colder than normal Winter for our area, NOAA meanwhile is saying we may see somewhat above average temps. but will be a fairly typical Winter overall. (El Nino doesn’t affect Kansas Winters much unless it’s strong)

  42. (My first posting at this illustrious site.) Regarding weather v. climate (see numerous comments above), climate is averaged (e.g. 30-year) weather, and therefore weather is the differential of climate. In order to estimate the evolution of a function, it is normal to study the first derivative, so weather has relevance. Despite the oceans currently being warm (well, tepid), the coolness of the continents suggests something is afoot. However, that won’t affect Copenhagen, where they will measure it in metres :-).
    Rich.

  43. Julie L (10:29:16) :
    After 50+ days of over 100F temps here in South Texas this summer…

    58 days in San Antonio.
    But subtracting 2°F of UHI effect, yields 27 days – not near the record.

  44. Josh (13:47:27) :

    Woke up to six fresh inches of snow this morning in Breckenridge, CO. It’s very cold and wintry up in Summit County!

    Snowforecast.com is predicting another foot this week, and Thursday is pegged to be the coldest October day EVER with highs in the teens and lows below zero (only supposed to hit 29 in CO Springs)!
    I’ll be at Copper for opening weekend (sadly, I cannot make it opening day, a Friday).
    Mark

  45. R Shearer (10:03:22) :
    How far back do the Bavarian records go, I wonder?

    Well, I think this is the oldest. It is from Hohenpeissengerg and is the “special” version GIStemp custom blends into the record in STEP0. GIStemp throws away anything before 1880, but the file starts in 1781.
    The have a web site and I have a picture of it and a link to it here:
    http://chiefio.wordpress.com/2009/08/30/gistemp-a-slice-of-pisa/
    A bit from the top of the file:
    [chiefio@tubularbells input_files]$ !!
    head t_hohenpeissenberg_200306.txt_as_received_July17_2003
    YEAR JAN FEB MAR APR MAY JUN JUL AUG SEP OCT NOV DEC D-J-F M-A-M J-J-A S-O-N ANN
    1781 -1.6 -0.9 2.4 8.7 12.2 14.2 15.2 16.7 12.7 4.7 1.9 1.5 -1.02 7.77 15.37 6.43 7.14
    1782 -0.8 -5.5 0 3.8 9.3 15.5 17 14.4 10.9 3.9 -2.5 -2 -1.60 4.37 15.63 4.10 5.62
    1783 0.9 0.4 -0.4 6.3 10.8 12.9 16 14.4 12.1 8.5 1.5 -2.1 -0.23 5.57 14.43 7.37 6.78
    1784 -5.1 -4.4 0.1 2.1 12.7 13 15 13.6 14.4 2.6 1.5 -4.4 -3.87 4.97 13.87 6.17 5.28
    1785 0.8 -6.4 -6 1.3 9 11.5 13 13.2 14.2 6.3 2.6 -1.6 -3.33 1.43 12.57 7.70 4.59
    1786 0.1 -2.9 -0.5 7.1 9 13.7 11.6 12.3 9.5 3.8 -0.2 -0.7 -1.47 5.20 12.53 4.37 5.16
    1787 -3.3 0.9 3.2 3.8 7.1 13.9 14.2 16.1 12.1 9.5 2.1 4.2 -1.03 4.70 14.73 7.90 6.58
    1788 -1.7 2.2 2.2 5.6 11.5 14.6 17.4 14 13.6 5.9 0.1 -10.2 1.57 6.43 15.33 6.53 7.47
    1789 -0.8 -0.4 -3.4 7.4 13 10.8 14.6 14.4 11.1 6.8 0.7 1.5 -3.80 5.67 13.27 6.20 5.33
    [chiefio@tubularbells input_files]$

  46. Its cold here still in New Zealand and we are in late spring. I hope the cold brings home the message to the west – Nature, not man, rules the weather.
    Unelected executives will have the power to tax us and we cannot throw them out with the ballot. This is what the western leaders are hoping for in Copenhagen. Obama, Brown, Kevin Rudd and our own John Key.
    What is the cause of this collective stupidity?
    The Americans fought their war of Independence on the slogan “No taxation without representation”. This has to be stopped.

  47. Bill Marsh (14:09:20) :
    Leif Svalgaard (12:28:43) :
    Robert Wykoff (10:15:42) :
    $10 says we have a +0.6 anomaly for October
    You mean UP from 0.4 in Septermber?
    —————-
    Somehow I don’t think so. ASU unadjusted satellite temps this month are showing barley any increases in temps vs Oct last year (+.03), whereas they had large (+.4) temp differences in September.

    Unfortunately, GISS gets the headlines, not ASU. And GIStemp has this odd little problem. In 2007 it lost its marbles.
    The present number of thermometers in the entire USA, including Alaska and Hawaii, that make it into the GIStemp front door is 136.
    YES: 136
    At peak it was 1850. The rest of the marbles got lost in the USHCN-v2 transition (that GIStemp didn’t make).
    In California, there are exactly 4 thermometers of record as far as GIStemp is concerned since 2007. They are Santa Maria (south coast), Los Angeles (urban hot south), San Diego (southern suburban warm), and San Francisco (coastal cool, but certainly not snowy mountains…)
    So you see, we had a 115 year all time hot record September because all the thermometers in GHCN had left the cold mountains and spent a nice holiday on the beaches, with 3/4 of them down in “La La Land” near LA.
    And that, boys and girls, is why we had a ‘record hot September’ and also why we are almost certainly going to have a very very hot October. Just ignore the cold snowy bits. That’s just weather… Hit the beach in LA, see, plenty warm.
    (And no this is not sarcastic. It is a direct statement of the facts as I have observed them in the GIStemp code, log files, web site, and products.)

  48. One thing I find interesting is that even at the peak of summer, the air aloft was rather chilly. On one flight we took off at Chilliwack in +30 degree heat and by the time we were at 8000, the temp was down to -10! Was that way most of the time. Recently, we did a spin over the upper Valley and had to cut it short due to temps as low as -30 at 8-10,000 feet. Not much warmth in a cloth skinned Aeronca! The cold is just lurking around up there waiting for it’s chance to descend.

  49. fhreid (10:05:49) :
    Is this the Drudge Report?
    I believe in AGW but often visit here to get a dissenting opinion. Citing regional variations in WEATHER patterns does nothing to promote your views and does nothing to assuage my opinion.

    Weather is a subset of climate. You cannot determine the climate without noting the accumulated weather reports. If the weather reports make a sudden shift where cold records dominate warm records, it is worth noting.
    When warm records seemed to be dominate a few years ago the AGW side was more than happy to trumpet every record as proof their hypothesis was correct, but now that the pattern has reversed they suddenly find that watching weather is not useful.
    Make up your mind! If it is good for the goose it should be good for the gander.
    We are not observing weather to influence your opinion, we are watching the weather to gather data. The scientific method does not care what your opinion is.
    These local weather reports provide a reasonableness check against both the reported average temperature numbers and the quality of the reporting network.
    If for example you have a 5 state area covered with new record low temperatures and 3 or 4 communities report record high temperatures in that same area, it might be useful to take a look at those stations that are reporting warm records when they are surrounded by cold records. Do they have instrumentation problems, siting problems, or local microweather effects that explain that unexpected result?
    If one data source is reporting a warm summer yet communities are reporting lower average temperatures month after month, shouldn’t that make a “scientist” ask how those two reports can both be correct?
    If large areas of the country are reporting unusual crop behavior, failure to set seed, late emergence low yield, frost kill etc. All of which would be most likely in a cooling climate yet official sources are using their “massaged and corrected data” telling you the season was warmer than normal, wouldn’t that justify some examination?
    Without data you have no science. Bad data is worse than no data at all! At least if you have no data you know the limitations of your knowledge.
    Larry

  50. Relativity of temperatures: Near the equator, 12 degrees south latitude, 75 degrees west we are having the following singular phenomena: Though maximum temperatures reach some days and during one or two hours, normal springtime values, minimum temperatures remain as in winter time, during early hours in the mornings and during evening and nights. So you can have normal average temperatures or even a meaningless of less than a degree centigrade negative anomaly, but if you keep minimum temperatures the same as in wintertime, you are having a net cooling not warming, so time at a certain level is what counts more. So, data of maxima and minima or anomalies mean nothing.

  51. hotrod (16:55:44) : – well said.
    E.M.Smith (16:11:03) : “..The present number of thermometers in the entire USA, including Alaska and Hawaii, that make it into the GIStemp front door is 136 … At peak it was 1850.”
    How on Earth can that temperature data be relied upon to give a true picture of the temperatures of the USA?

  52. Pamela Gray (10:49:01) :
    The jet stream is loopy. There is a US wide break allowing Arctic air to flow into the continent. The wind is cooperating as well as it is blowing directly South right at Canada and us. It returns to a northern breeze along Europe which would explain Ireland’s warmish wave.
    I have been studying that Jet stream recently and it has been a mixed bag of El Nino tracks and La Nina tracks, as if it can’t make up its mind which track to stay in.
    May not all these record breaking weather events be seen as evidence of a changing climate?
    Is it possible for the Jet stream to change to this position for a significant amount of time?

  53. I am not sure if it’s a record, but it is cold here in Sydney, Australia today, a bit colder than yesterday in fact, currently 15.5c. Usually, about this time, end of October, close to the start of November, we get a distinct change in upward temperatures and you know summer is on it’s way. But today, really feels like winter, I’m not joking.

  54. Richard (18:42:48) :
    E.M.Smith (16:11:03) : “..The present number of thermometers in the entire USA, including Alaska and Hawaii, that make it into the GIStemp front door is 136 … At peak it was 1850.”
    How on Earth can that temperature data be relied upon to give a true picture of the temperatures of the USA?

    It can not.
    But realize, this is the NASA GISS GIStemp product, not the NOAA charts. The breakdown is at the interface between NOAA USHCN and USHCN.v2 data sets and the GIStemp program. USHCN makes it (up to 2007), but due to a lack of “maintenance programming” a data set format change that makes the USHCN.v2 format product (delivered in a different file) causes that file to not make it into GIStemp. The US data are truncated in 2007 from NOAA.
    A second issue is that some, as yet unidentified but probably related to CRN adoption as a speculation, change in how GHCN selects thermometers for inclusion causes the US data to be restricted to 136 thermometers.
    The result of these together is that 93% off all us thermometers are not part of the GIStemp product. And since the US dominates the total data in the data set, the deletion of the 2007-to-date records while leaving in the older colder records for comparison means:
    GIStemp is completely unusable for any analysis, record identification, or any other use after 2006. Period.
    Details at:
    http://chiefio.wordpress.com/2009/10/24/ghcn-california-on-the-beach-who-needs-snow/#comment-1307
    But the NOAA maps of highs, lows, records et all based on the USHCN and USHCN.v2 data are still valid. Use the NOAA product, do not use the NASA GISS product.

  55. WattsUpWithThat—Science Blog of the Year 2009!!
    REPLY: Perhaps not, I think Steve McIntyre is more deserving. – Anthony

  56. INGSOC (16:22:02) :
    Aeronca,eh? I have a lot of time in those old ragwings.A buddy of mine had a 65hp.
    Champ on skis. Had immense amount of fun in the high country of NE Oregon.
    went every where there was a reasonably flat spot.This was in the-1970’s
    hmm…
    Yes, they are dang cold…

  57. pwc (16:23:53) :
    How many “weathers” does it take to make a “climate?”
    ——————-
    It’s not a frivolous question, since weather is concrete and climate is abstract.
    How many thoughts does it take to make an action? goes along the same lines.
    If you’re asked “what’s the climate like?” and you say “mild and wet winters, warm, dry summers, some windy days in the fall” you can be asked for more detail until the cows come home.
    I don’t know how a whole “ology” can be about nothing other than averages, especially when it claims to cover the entire fluid make-up of the planet along with its interactions with the non-fluid part and the energetic input of the sun.

  58. I LIVE IN WATERLOO IA, AND RECALL THAT ONE DAY (I THINK IN 1983), THE TEMP WITH WIND CHILL WAS – 93 F. IN MY RECOLLECTION, IT WAS -38 DEG WITH 50 MPH WINDS.
    JUST OPENED UP MY UTILITY BILL FOR OCTOBER. THEY PUBLISH A YEAR OVER YEAR AVERAGE TEMP FOR THE MONTH. THIS MONTH’S AVERAGE WAS 7 DEG COLLER THAN LAST YEAR’ S OCTOBER AVERAGE. FOR THE PAST SEVERAL YEARS, THE AVERAGE YEAR OVER YEAR MONTHLY TEMPS HAVE (EXCEPT FOR ONE MONTH) GONE DOWN.
    DO UTILITY COMPANIES IN OTHER AREAS PUBLISH MONTHLY TEMPERATURE
    AVERAGES. WOULD BE INTERESTING TO COMPARE.
    ARE WE GOING TO” RETURN TO THE DAYS OF YESTERYEARS” (IS THAT FROM THE “LONE RANGER” OPENER?—-ANY OLD TIMERS ON THIS BLOG ?)

  59. In Northern Colorado, we have had the coldest October in anyone’s memory. More like January than October.

  60. Gene Nemetz (19:38:55) : NOAA projection for Nov 09, Dec 09, Jan 10 :
    http://www.cpc.noaa.gov/products/predictions/long_range/lead01/off01_temp.gif
    They are projecting a turnaround in temperatures as compared to Oct 09. We will see for ourselves their accuracy.

    Yes I had pointed this out earlier somewhere. This would be a complete reversal of the October weather and we shall see.
    What would be interesting, and what I couldn’t find, was the October prediction. Can you locate that? They cleverly hide their previous predictions from us for postmortems.

  61. E.M.Smith (19:38:19) :
    The link to the top of the article would be:
    http://chiefio.wordpress.com/2009/10/24/ghcn-california-on-the-beach-who-needs-snow/

    I may be missing it, but I only find a single location in Colorado. If true that would mean they have no input from the colder high altitude sites.
    42572476000 GRAND JUNCTIO 39.12 -108.53 1475 1491S 29MVxxno-9A 3COOL GRASS/SHRUBC3 29
    In Wyoming I see 2 listings:
    42572569000 CASPER/NATRON 42.92 -106.47 1612 1625U 50FLxxno-9A 2COOL GRASS/SHRUBC2 15
    42572576000 LANDER/HUNT, 42.82 -108.73 1694 1729R -9MVxxno-9A-9COOL GRASS/SHRUBC2 9
    Utah appears to have one listing:
    42572572000 SALT LAKE CIT 40.78 -111.97 1288 1295U 1072FLxxno-9A 4COOL DESERT C3 59
    Montana has one listing I can find:
    42572677000 BILLINGS/LOGA 45.80 -108.53 1088 1000U 81HIxxno-9x-9COOL GRASS/SHRUBC3 123
    New Mexico has 2 listings:
    42572365000 ALBUQUERQUE/I 35.05 -106.62 1620 1587U 589MVxxno-9A 2WARM GRASS/SHRUBC3 48
    So that means that the entire Rocky Mountain Region is represented by 6 thermometers. This is an area that includes 4 of the 10 largest states in the U.S. and extends from The Canadian Border to the Rio Grand in a band 400-500 miles wide, and ranges in altitude from Red Bluff Reservoir at 2,842 feet elevation in New Mexico to 14,440ft in Colorado. Total area is 470,539 sq miles (1218690 sq km).
    That is one thermometer for each 78423 sq mi (203115 sq km). That would equal a square 280 miles (451km) on a side.
    —————————————— sq mi—- sq km
    The 4th largest state in the Union — Montana 147,042 380,837
    The 5th largest state in the Union — New Mexico 121,589 314,914
    The 8th largest state in the Union — Colorado 104,094 269,602
    The 10th largest state in the Union — Wyoming 97,814 253,337
    =============================================
    Because of the Mountain barrier that runs down the center of Colorado, it can in the winter time be 70 deg F in Grand Junction, and -20 deg F in the front range just outside Denver with 3 ft of snow on the ground.
    If they think this is a representative sample of temperatures from the Mountain Region I would like to know what they were smoking when they selected the thermometers to keep.
    Larry

  62. We’re having a very mild October in Spain. Yesterday evening it was wonderful in Madrid, you wouldn’t even need a sweater. But with all this cold in northern Europe, I don’t want to know how it will feel when the wind finally starts blowing from the North… brrrrr!

  63. If it is to be believed Arctic Ice has REDUCED by 7,447,813 sq kms on the 25th! Something tells me this is not right. What could be the possible explanation? If not a major undersea volcanoe going off it must be a mistake.

  64. R Shearer (10:03:22) :
    How far back do the Bavarian records go, I wonder?

    About 1998. Private station and a microclimate totally not representative for region or Germany.

  65. Nylo (01:37:13) :
    We’re having a very mild October in Spain. Yesterday evening it was wonderful in Madrid, you wouldn’t even need a sweater. But with all this cold in northern Europe, I don’t want to know how it will feel when the wind finally starts blowing from the North… brrrrr!

    The cold is over in all of Europe. Rest of the month into November will be mild.

  66. The news about a record breaking cold snap in the National Park Berchtesgaden/Bavaria is a good exmple how a single,isolated information can be completely misleading. Here in Bavaria we enjoy a pretty warm october. In the mountains we had some snow,probably the earliest wintery snowstorm in a decade,but far from being historic. The record cold was in fact measured at one single place,the famous “Funtensee”. The Funtensee is a small lake in the mountains,situated in a hole at an altitude of 1600 meters nn. In clear nights all the cold air drops, and even in summer the temperature there has already dropped to minus 10 degrees C. So this is not about climate,not even about weather, but about hydrogeology and topography. Nevertheless it could be a fascinating and beautiful place to visit (like all of Bavaria) for anybody around here.
    Best wishes from the bavarian mountains
    Reinhard Bösch

  67. Re Terryskinner
    I mailed to that Swiss glaciology page and got following answer:
    1) When will be 2009 glacier advance/retreat data included on your website?
    We usually have most of the results compiled by end of December and will update our website
    2) Which glacier length is compared each year? Lowest summer extent or some kind of annual monthly averages?
    We do not really determine the absolute glacier length rather than the change at the snout of successive years. It is the change between the actual surveys which we try to carry out at the time of the summer minimum.

  68. Pamela Gray (10:49:01) :
    I have been studying that Jet stream recently and it has been a mixed bag of El Nino tracks and La Nina tracks, as if it can’t make up its mind which track to stay in

    As it was with the suposed El Nino. The last remnants of SST in Nino area 1+2 were lost in august/september. Now the cold Humboldt´s has emerged along the west coast of SA..
    http://weather.unisys.com/surface/sst_anom.html
    But, as the coasts along Australia are also cold and the middle of South Pacific it is also, perhaps (I don´t know, perhaps you know it) this time we are observing a singular phenomena. In addition to that if there is no warming up because of increased cloud cover next summer….”what will be, will be…”?

  69. From the smack-dab middle of that purple blob above we are taking the passed absence of our cherished ‘Indian Summer’ in stride. September was dry and warm, actually more of both than in August.
    Looking ahead is another matter, as cabin fever’s already familiar.

  70. It’s been so wet in Southeastern Pennsylvania, I’ll never get my garlic crop in the ground. First snow flakes cited on 10/15/09 in Philadelphia…. a month early. Gloomy cool wet Summer and Fall has been very challenging for a our market gardening business. We don’t want or need a Dalton or Maunder minimum, so I am praying for the sun will do what it did in the 1980’s and clear away the cold and the muck.

  71. Richard (01:54:29) :
    If it is to be believed Arctic Ice has REDUCED by 7,447,813 sq kms on the 25th! Something tells me this is not right. What could be the possible explanation? If not a major undersea volcanoe going off it must be a mistake.

    There are other examples of something similar happening, around 15/16 October 2005 for example. I guess Mother Nature isn’t linear!!

  72. Mr Green Genes (13:43:04) : No I guess mother nature is not linear. But I wonder what the explanation of this is.
    On the 16th of October 2005 the ice reduced by 16875 Km^2 as per the JAXA data, but this reduction is unprecedented. The 25th of October with very little to no insolation in those latitudes a reduction of 79,843 sq kms. This on top of a very small increase of 17,656 Km^2 on the 24th. Mind you they have published an update reducing this reduction to exactly 30,000 Km^2 but still. Looks like some adjustment of their previous data perhaps. There also seems to be some warm water pouring in from the Pacific still. We will see what todays figures look like.

  73. @Jeff Corbin
    Ditto with the garlic crop here in Nebraska, but then we’re smack dab in the middle of the low temperature anomaly. At this stage, I’m considering doing a spring planting.

  74. RR Kampen (03:01:19) : The cold is over in all of Europe. Rest of the month into November will be mild.
    I looked up the forecast and here it is:
    26 Oct 31 Oct
    London 17 17
    Paris 17 16
    Berlin 14 8
    Vienna 14 9
    Stockholm 10 7
    Moscow 5 2
    Bucharest 17 9
    Madrid 26 26
    Rome 22 17
    Athens 23 14
    Where exactly will it be warmer for the rest of the month?

  75. WattsUpWithThat—Science Blog of the Year 2009!!
    REPLY: Perhaps not, I think Steve McIntyre is more deserving. – Anthony

    The Yamal data break was fantastic. I remember how the news struck me! If there is an award for the science story or the year that is it! That single story probably did more for real science than anything else this year. I can understand why you did say that about Steve McIntyre. He has shown quite a bit of persistence.
    But on a day to day basis throughout the year WUWT is science blog of the year—IMO.
    Don’t short sell yourself Anthony. There has been a lot of valuable science coming from your blog! Many people love this web site!

  76. Richard (22:25:01) :
    You could send an email to NOAA asking for Octobers forecast. They may reply.

  77. OKE E DOKE (21:29:39) :
    JUST OPENED UP MY UTILITY BILL FOR OCTOBER. THEY PUBLISH A YEAR OVER YEAR AVERAGE TEMP FOR THE MONTH. THIS MONTH’S AVERAGE WAS 7 DEG COLLER THAN LAST YEAR’ S OCTOBER AVERAGE.
    I think there was a prediction by someone that El Nino, besides co2, could make this year warmer than last. Many wrong predictions from AGW folk.

  78. The best way for Obama to cut the legs out from underneath the furor of the anti-Copenhagen protest is to say he’s not participating. Then, at the last second, change his mind and attend. The people who put him in office and gave him $650 million, will demand that he attend and sign over the sovereignty of the USA. Swartzenegger recently did this manuever on an ammunition bill that violated the 2nd amendment. The temperatures are so low in Southern Mexico, that we are forming an ice hockey team to play on the frozen cenotes.

  79. Alert Nunavut, Canada (lat 82deg28minN)
    Temperatures plummeted to -34C late last week. Currently (daily high) it is
    -27C:
    http://www.wunderground.com/global/stations/71082.html#History
    Normal for October avg -20:
    http://www.grc.k12.nf.ca/climatecanada/alert.htm
    With freezing noted in this post as far south as Charlotte NC (new record) in NA and Romania-Austria-Germany (new records) in Europe, We appear to be on track to surpass the winter of 2008-2009 for cold. The Hadley centre’s warm winter forecast with”1 in 7 chance of a cold one” will be soon changing these odds.

  80. Richard (15:02:14) :
    There’s clearly something interesting going on, if the Arctic temperature graph is anything to go by. The last 6 or 7 weeks have seen some very sudden and significant changes.
    A question maybe to Pamela Gray who seems to have the Jet Stream in her sights:- Is there any possible correlation between the behaviour of the Jet Stream and the Arctic temps and sea ice readings?

Comments are closed.