It’s not looking good for the coming Halloween. Button up those trick or treaters. Fall, we hardly knew ya. Here’s a roundup of interesting cold weather events in the last week. Check out the forecast graphic at the bottom of this story.
From Bill Steffen, WOOD-TV.
October 22nd. A weather station in Berchtesgaden National Park in Bavaria has recorded the coldest temperature ever in Germany during the month of October. The thermometer dipped to -24.3C or -11.7F. Clear skies, calm winds and fresh snow was the perfect combination for the record chill. The city of Augsburg, Germany has been 9.3 degrees colder than average during the past week. Prague in the Czech Republic is supposed to be in the mid 50s at this time of year. They had 3 days with temperatures stuck in the 30s and even picked up some snow flurries.
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October Cold Snap Sets 82-Year Record
High On Tuesday Was Only 47 Degrees
October in Chicago is usually equal parts balmy T-shirt weather and nippy light jacket temperatures, but if it’s felt more like winter coat weather this year, it’s not your imagination. Chicago has spent the last 17 days with below-average temperatures, and a high of a mere 47 degrees made Tuesday the coldest Oct. 13 in 82 years, CBS 2’s Mary Kay Kleist says.
Comparing temperatures for the first 14 days of October 2008 to this year seems like comparing the tropics to the tundra.
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From Bill Steffen, WOOD-TV. October 14th. The biggest snowstorm in 25 years hit central Europe with amounts up to five feet atop Zugspitze, the highest peak in Germany. In Austria, two day snowfalls of 2-3 feet caused some ski areas to have their earliest-ever opening day. The Czech Republic, Slovakia and Poland were hit hard. Up to 20″ of snow fell in the mountains of the Czech Republic. Trees and power lines were toppled, with up to 700,000 customers without power during the unusual cold wave. In southern Poland three people froze to death.
Huge waves destroyed a pier at Sopot in northern Poland. Tens of thousands of Ukrainians were without power after the storm. A major rail line from Switzerland to Austria was blocked by trees felled from the weight of the snow. The Polish government mobilized troops to assist the clean-up.
Temperatures dropped to 11 above zero in southern Poland, extremely cold for this time of year. Back in the U.S., check out the snow on top of Mt. Washington in New Hampshire. Mt. Washington hasn’t been above freezing in nine days. They had over a foot of snowfall in the first two weeks of October and temperatures for the month are more than 7 degrees cooler than average.
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Record-breaking cold this morning, widespread frost
Termperatures are rebounding after what was record-breaking cold morning in Charlotte.
Temperatures fell below the freezing mark for the first time since last winter in Charlotte, and frost was reported across the metro region. A number of National Weather Service official reporting stations had sub-freezing lows.
This morning’s unofficial low at Charlotte/Douglas International Airport was 30 degrees. That is the coldest since March 5, when the low was 29. This morning’s reading broke the old record for the date, 31 degrees, set in 1948.
A low of 28 degrees was record in Albemarle, North Wilkesboro and Rutherfordton. The morning low was 30 degrees in Salisbury and Statesville. It dropped to 32 degrees in Gastonia, Hickory, Monroe and Rock Hill.
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From NOAA’s Climate Prediction Center:
Rhys Jaggar, Terryskinner
here you can observe advance/retreat of Swiss glaciers:
http://glaciology.ethz.ch/messnetz/glacierlist.html
and graph showing advance/retreat vs AMO index
http://www.letka13.sk/~jurinko/swiss_glaciers_vs_AMO.gif
I am curious what will 2009 show. I think they measure the lowest summer extent so data should be available already?
I’m not sure where that temperature anomaly map at the top of the post came from, but it sure looks to me as though a data point in New Mexico was wildly wrong and throws off the entire region. I would be nice to see a fixed map (or confirmation that the data is accurate. Perhaps it’s one of those data points from the previous month sort of error.
Leif Svalgaard (12:28:43) :
Robert Wykoff (10:15:42) :
$10 says we have a +0.6 anomaly for October
You mean UP from 0.4 in Septermber?
—————-
Somehow I don’t think so. ASU unadjusted satellite temps this month are showing barley any increases in temps vs Oct last year (+.03), whereas they had large (+.4) temp differences in September.
6000+ low maximum records broken or tied in October (page will take forever to load)
http://www.ncdc.noaa.gov/oa/climate/research/records/index.php?ts=daily&elem=lomx&month=10&day=0&year=2009&sts%5B%5D=US&submitted=Get+Records
Any possible global temp. reading being like 1998 is going to have a hard time convincing those here in the states.
The farmer’s almanac is predicting a colder than normal Winter for our area, NOAA meanwhile is saying we may see somewhat above average temps. but will be a fairly typical Winter overall. (El Nino doesn’t affect Kansas Winters much unless it’s strong)
Juraj V.
Thank you for that.
PSU-EMS-Alum (10:17:32) :
Is that bulls-eye in NM real or an artifact?
Looks to be a violation of the Nuclear Test Ban Treaty.
(My first posting at this illustrious site.) Regarding weather v. climate (see numerous comments above), climate is averaged (e.g. 30-year) weather, and therefore weather is the differential of climate. In order to estimate the evolution of a function, it is normal to study the first derivative, so weather has relevance. Despite the oceans currently being warm (well, tepid), the coolness of the continents suggests something is afoot. However, that won’t affect Copenhagen, where they will measure it in metres :-).
Rich.
Julie L (10:29:16) :
After 50+ days of over 100F temps here in South Texas this summer…
58 days in San Antonio.
But subtracting 2°F of UHI effect, yields 27 days – not near the record.
Josh (13:47:27) :
Snowforecast.com is predicting another foot this week, and Thursday is pegged to be the coldest October day EVER with highs in the teens and lows below zero (only supposed to hit 29 in CO Springs)!
I’ll be at Copper for opening weekend (sadly, I cannot make it opening day, a Friday).
Mark
R Shearer (10:03:22) :
How far back do the Bavarian records go, I wonder?
Well, I think this is the oldest. It is from Hohenpeissengerg and is the “special” version GIStemp custom blends into the record in STEP0. GIStemp throws away anything before 1880, but the file starts in 1781.
The have a web site and I have a picture of it and a link to it here:
http://chiefio.wordpress.com/2009/08/30/gistemp-a-slice-of-pisa/
A bit from the top of the file:
[chiefio@tubularbells input_files]$ !!
head t_hohenpeissenberg_200306.txt_as_received_July17_2003
YEAR JAN FEB MAR APR MAY JUN JUL AUG SEP OCT NOV DEC D-J-F M-A-M J-J-A S-O-N ANN
1781 -1.6 -0.9 2.4 8.7 12.2 14.2 15.2 16.7 12.7 4.7 1.9 1.5 -1.02 7.77 15.37 6.43 7.14
1782 -0.8 -5.5 0 3.8 9.3 15.5 17 14.4 10.9 3.9 -2.5 -2 -1.60 4.37 15.63 4.10 5.62
1783 0.9 0.4 -0.4 6.3 10.8 12.9 16 14.4 12.1 8.5 1.5 -2.1 -0.23 5.57 14.43 7.37 6.78
1784 -5.1 -4.4 0.1 2.1 12.7 13 15 13.6 14.4 2.6 1.5 -4.4 -3.87 4.97 13.87 6.17 5.28
1785 0.8 -6.4 -6 1.3 9 11.5 13 13.2 14.2 6.3 2.6 -1.6 -3.33 1.43 12.57 7.70 4.59
1786 0.1 -2.9 -0.5 7.1 9 13.7 11.6 12.3 9.5 3.8 -0.2 -0.7 -1.47 5.20 12.53 4.37 5.16
1787 -3.3 0.9 3.2 3.8 7.1 13.9 14.2 16.1 12.1 9.5 2.1 4.2 -1.03 4.70 14.73 7.90 6.58
1788 -1.7 2.2 2.2 5.6 11.5 14.6 17.4 14 13.6 5.9 0.1 -10.2 1.57 6.43 15.33 6.53 7.47
1789 -0.8 -0.4 -3.4 7.4 13 10.8 14.6 14.4 11.1 6.8 0.7 1.5 -3.80 5.67 13.27 6.20 5.33
[chiefio@tubularbells input_files]$
Its cold here still in New Zealand and we are in late spring. I hope the cold brings home the message to the west – Nature, not man, rules the weather.
Unelected executives will have the power to tax us and we cannot throw them out with the ballot. This is what the western leaders are hoping for in Copenhagen. Obama, Brown, Kevin Rudd and our own John Key.
What is the cause of this collective stupidity?
The Americans fought their war of Independence on the slogan “No taxation without representation”. This has to be stopped.
Bill Marsh (14:09:20) :
Leif Svalgaard (12:28:43) :
Robert Wykoff (10:15:42) :
$10 says we have a +0.6 anomaly for October
You mean UP from 0.4 in Septermber?
—————-
Somehow I don’t think so. ASU unadjusted satellite temps this month are showing barley any increases in temps vs Oct last year (+.03), whereas they had large (+.4) temp differences in September.
Unfortunately, GISS gets the headlines, not ASU. And GIStemp has this odd little problem. In 2007 it lost its marbles.
The present number of thermometers in the entire USA, including Alaska and Hawaii, that make it into the GIStemp front door is 136.
YES: 136
At peak it was 1850. The rest of the marbles got lost in the USHCN-v2 transition (that GIStemp didn’t make).
In California, there are exactly 4 thermometers of record as far as GIStemp is concerned since 2007. They are Santa Maria (south coast), Los Angeles (urban hot south), San Diego (southern suburban warm), and San Francisco (coastal cool, but certainly not snowy mountains…)
So you see, we had a 115 year all time hot record September because all the thermometers in GHCN had left the cold mountains and spent a nice holiday on the beaches, with 3/4 of them down in “La La Land” near LA.
And that, boys and girls, is why we had a ‘record hot September’ and also why we are almost certainly going to have a very very hot October. Just ignore the cold snowy bits. That’s just weather… Hit the beach in LA, see, plenty warm.
(And no this is not sarcastic. It is a direct statement of the facts as I have observed them in the GIStemp code, log files, web site, and products.)
Long range forecast (14 days) suggests that local temperatures will be below average in the 1st week of November. Meanwhile, just North of us, the 2010 winter Olympic venue in Whistler/Blackcomb is snowing above 1,300m. Webcam here: http://www.whistlerblackcomb.com/weather/cams/whistler/index.htm
One thing I find interesting is that even at the peak of summer, the air aloft was rather chilly. On one flight we took off at Chilliwack in +30 degree heat and by the time we were at 8000, the temp was down to -10! Was that way most of the time. Recently, we did a spin over the upper Valley and had to cut it short due to temps as low as -30 at 8-10,000 feet. Not much warmth in a cloth skinned Aeronca! The cold is just lurking around up there waiting for it’s chance to descend.
How many “weathers” does it take to make a “climate?”
Weather is a subset of climate. You cannot determine the climate without noting the accumulated weather reports. If the weather reports make a sudden shift where cold records dominate warm records, it is worth noting.
When warm records seemed to be dominate a few years ago the AGW side was more than happy to trumpet every record as proof their hypothesis was correct, but now that the pattern has reversed they suddenly find that watching weather is not useful.
Make up your mind! If it is good for the goose it should be good for the gander.
We are not observing weather to influence your opinion, we are watching the weather to gather data. The scientific method does not care what your opinion is.
These local weather reports provide a reasonableness check against both the reported average temperature numbers and the quality of the reporting network.
If for example you have a 5 state area covered with new record low temperatures and 3 or 4 communities report record high temperatures in that same area, it might be useful to take a look at those stations that are reporting warm records when they are surrounded by cold records. Do they have instrumentation problems, siting problems, or local microweather effects that explain that unexpected result?
If one data source is reporting a warm summer yet communities are reporting lower average temperatures month after month, shouldn’t that make a “scientist” ask how those two reports can both be correct?
If large areas of the country are reporting unusual crop behavior, failure to set seed, late emergence low yield, frost kill etc. All of which would be most likely in a cooling climate yet official sources are using their “massaged and corrected data” telling you the season was warmer than normal, wouldn’t that justify some examination?
Without data you have no science. Bad data is worse than no data at all! At least if you have no data you know the limitations of your knowledge.
Larry
Relativity of temperatures: Near the equator, 12 degrees south latitude, 75 degrees west we are having the following singular phenomena: Though maximum temperatures reach some days and during one or two hours, normal springtime values, minimum temperatures remain as in winter time, during early hours in the mornings and during evening and nights. So you can have normal average temperatures or even a meaningless of less than a degree centigrade negative anomaly, but if you keep minimum temperatures the same as in wintertime, you are having a net cooling not warming, so time at a certain level is what counts more. So, data of maxima and minima or anomalies mean nothing.
hotrod (16:55:44) : – well said.
E.M.Smith (16:11:03) : “..The present number of thermometers in the entire USA, including Alaska and Hawaii, that make it into the GIStemp front door is 136 … At peak it was 1850.”
How on Earth can that temperature data be relied upon to give a true picture of the temperatures of the USA?
Pamela Gray (10:49:01) :
The jet stream is loopy. There is a US wide break allowing Arctic air to flow into the continent. The wind is cooperating as well as it is blowing directly South right at Canada and us. It returns to a northern breeze along Europe which would explain Ireland’s warmish wave.
I have been studying that Jet stream recently and it has been a mixed bag of El Nino tracks and La Nina tracks, as if it can’t make up its mind which track to stay in.
May not all these record breaking weather events be seen as evidence of a changing climate?
Is it possible for the Jet stream to change to this position for a significant amount of time?
I am not sure if it’s a record, but it is cold here in Sydney, Australia today, a bit colder than yesterday in fact, currently 15.5c. Usually, about this time, end of October, close to the start of November, we get a distinct change in upward temperatures and you know summer is on it’s way. But today, really feels like winter, I’m not joking.
Richard (18:42:48) :
E.M.Smith (16:11:03) : “..The present number of thermometers in the entire USA, including Alaska and Hawaii, that make it into the GIStemp front door is 136 … At peak it was 1850.”
How on Earth can that temperature data be relied upon to give a true picture of the temperatures of the USA?
It can not.
But realize, this is the NASA GISS GIStemp product, not the NOAA charts. The breakdown is at the interface between NOAA USHCN and USHCN.v2 data sets and the GIStemp program. USHCN makes it (up to 2007), but due to a lack of “maintenance programming” a data set format change that makes the USHCN.v2 format product (delivered in a different file) causes that file to not make it into GIStemp. The US data are truncated in 2007 from NOAA.
A second issue is that some, as yet unidentified but probably related to CRN adoption as a speculation, change in how GHCN selects thermometers for inclusion causes the US data to be restricted to 136 thermometers.
The result of these together is that 93% off all us thermometers are not part of the GIStemp product. And since the US dominates the total data in the data set, the deletion of the 2007-to-date records while leaving in the older colder records for comparison means:
GIStemp is completely unusable for any analysis, record identification, or any other use after 2006. Period.
Details at:
http://chiefio.wordpress.com/2009/10/24/ghcn-california-on-the-beach-who-needs-snow/#comment-1307
But the NOAA maps of highs, lows, records et all based on the USHCN and USHCN.v2 data are still valid. Use the NOAA product, do not use the NASA GISS product.
The link to the top of the article would be:
http://chiefio.wordpress.com/2009/10/24/ghcn-california-on-the-beach-who-needs-snow/
NOAA projection for Nov 09, Dec 09, Jan 10 :
http://www.cpc.noaa.gov/products/predictions/long_range/lead01/off01_temp.gif
They are projecting a turnaround in temperatures as compared to Oct 09.
We will see for ourselves their accuracy.
WattsUpWithThat—Science Blog of the Year 2009!!
REPLY: Perhaps not, I think Steve McIntyre is more deserving. – Anthony
INGSOC (16:22:02) :
Aeronca,eh? I have a lot of time in those old ragwings.A buddy of mine had a 65hp.
Champ on skis. Had immense amount of fun in the high country of NE Oregon.
went every where there was a reasonably flat spot.This was in the-1970’s
hmm…
Yes, they are dang cold…