While early autumn snowstorms aren’t uncommon in US weather history, they tend to be quick affairs that melt off quickly in a day or two. This however is a bit different in that we have a significant portion of the northern Midwest plains and northern Rockies are snow covered and it is not quickly dissipating, in fact it is increasing. Since October 10th the coverage has increased from 13.2% of the USA covered by snow.
This map below is from NOAA’s NOHRSC National Snow Analysis page.
Here is the accompanying table and discussion:
October 13, 2009
| Area Covered By Snow: | 19.9% |
| Area Covered Last Month: | 0.0% |
| Snow Depth | |
|---|---|
| Average: | 0.7 in |
| Minimum: | 0.0 in |
| Maximum: | 728.8 in |
| Std. Dev.: | 2.1 in |
| Snow Water Equivalent | |
| Average: | 0.1 in |
| Minimum: | 0.0 in |
| Maximum: | 403.4 in |
| Std. Dev.: | 0.4 in |
By way of comparison, here is the October 13th USA snow cover for the last few years:
2003- .7
2004- .3
2005- 1.7
2006- 3.7
2007- .3
2008-12.7
2009-19.9
What is also interesting is the 6 year trend of snow depth on this date.
2003- 38.2 in
2004-322.6 in
2005-456.9 in
2006-223.2 in
2007-458.1 in
2008-600.6 in
2009-728.8 in
You can watch the snow cover advance in the animation they provide:
Click for animation of the last 72 hours
Weather Summary
A series of potent systems moved across the coterminous U.S. this weekend, and they brought snow to the north and rain to the south. Late last week, heavy rain fell across the south, which continued to aggravate river flooding and keep soils most.
On Friday, up to 1 foot of snow fell at higher elevations in Wyoming, mainly due to upslope flow from a surface low which moved across the Plains. This same system produced up to 1 1/2 feet of snow to mainly Nebraska Friday and Saturday. Lighter amounts – up to 1/2 foot – fell across the southern Dakotas. On Monday, another system produced light snow across the Upper Midwest and western Great Lakes.
Much of the Western snowpack is cold and stable due due to unseasonably cold air temperatures in those areas. Along the southern edge of the snowpack – from southeastern Idaho to southern Wyoming and from southern Nebraska through southern Iowa, warm and melting conditions were present.
A deep, strong offshore system off the West Coast with potent onshore flow will cause widespread heavy rainfall across the northern two-thirds of California. Up to a foot of snow is possible in the high-elevation central Sierra Nevada, but it will be mixed with rain.
The energy of this West Coast system will shift northward and bring moderate rainfall – 1 to 2 inches – to the coastal Northwest and the Cascades on Wednesday and Thursday.
A midlevel trough will develop across the eastern U.S., and a stationary front across the South will be a focus for heavy rainfall through midweek, and this rain will shift to the Middle Atlantic states late this week.
As the West Coast system lifts northward, midlevel ridging will develop progress smartly across the West. Daily maximum temperatures are expected to be above freezing in much of the West by Friday. The ridge will move into the central U.S. by the weekend and bring seasonable temperatures to the Plains and Upper Midwest, causing snowmelt there.
Snow Reports
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h/t to WUWT reader Mike Bryant
Geoff Sherrington (17:54:53) : have it as a nuisance, but as a playground it is only a drive of a few hours. Skilled people are invited to migrate here, with $ assistance. Think about it.
Do you take 50 something computer guys with way too much experience?
If so, count me in! Almost migrated there in 1982 as a database specialist, but an offer of more money and a better job kept me in the USA. A decision I have often regretted… It is that “90 mile beach” with 100 yards of people on it near Melbourn that haunts my memories most 😉 followed closely by the night on the town in the same city with live entertainment acts working the whole restaurant / bar… Folks on stilts juggling things, strolling minstrals, giant perfect steak.
And you do have the good sense to keep your snow up in the “mountains” for skiing 😉
Is it just me or has anyone else noticed that the many AGW trolls, ratbags etc. seem to have gone quiet lately on the leading sceptical blogs?
Bill Sticker (18:02:52)
according to today’s The Australian newspaper the study was done by Peter Wadhams, Professor of Ocean Physics at Cambridge
See http://www.theaustralian.news.com.au/story/0,25197,26213406-601,00.html
He based his forecast on Pen Hadlow’s ice survey when on the Catlin Expedition.
Bill Sticker (18:02:52) wrote:
Slightly O/T; have you seen the latest doomsaying re the Arctic from the BBC?
“Arctic to be ‘ice-free in summer’”
http://news.bbc.co.uk/2/hi/science/nature/8307272.stm
*******
I noted with great interest that the BBC item concerned Professor Wadhams of the University of Cambridge, who has been studying the Arctic ice since the 1960s. The report told us that “He was speaking in central London at the launch of the findings of the Catlin Arctic Survey.”
In Canada we have various comedy festivals with lots of stand-up comedians. Was this a British equivalent?
IanM
Geoff Sherrington (17:54:53)
The ABC reported that snow is presently falling on the snowy mountains
Back2Bat (13:50:16) :
Oh…I love cold weather.
You are right…controls the pests and the riff raff.
What I meant by that statement “fear the cold, not the warm”….was that the times of greatest hardship in human history coincide with cold periods.
Crop failures, disease, drought, extreme weather….
But we are technologically advanced these days to adjust to cold periods and see them coming.
Trouble is, we have not been preparing for such.
Trouble is…the AGW crowd has been steering the boat the absolute wrong direction…and it goes to show that they make terrible navigators or ship captains….and then all of the sudden the ship brushes a big fat iceberg…
But I agree with ya there….let the pond freeze over….I’m ready to skate.
Lemme dust off my snowboard….
Yeehah.
Chris
Norfolk, VA
Gordon Ford (19:00:50) : I hear you 🙂 I am totally with you guys, and this web site has been a fantastic site to get to grips (in lay terms for me) with the issues and science.
Geoff C (19:09:19) : Yup – I even keep beating down (politely) the Crikey nutters on their blogs and they are giving up the debate with me because I keep using their arguments against them. Classic case was them using the UAH temp record (as per Spencer & Christie – I hope I have the names right, from memory) as proof of the “warming trend.” I gave them the link to S&C’s own assessment on the climate situation, which sadly does not agree with their AGW rhetoric.
Hopefully the facts and evidence continue to pile up en route to Copenhagen. Personally (being somewhat advisedly sceptical of the politicians) I see the Copenhagen talking heads already pointing to the fact that it is unlikely there will be a significant resolution, and the blame game is already going at full steam.
My cynical side is saying… the politicians know they do not really want the ETS, but they are trying to make it look like they are really gunning for it, but they are being thwarted by because they can’t get their policy through their legislative process.
So the end game is, no global ETS and some other country/party is to blame for the failiure to achieve consensus on action.
And the world heads into a cooling phase, so in a few years we can start the whole process again. Except will the debate now be… use more coal to put a warm blanket on the atmosphere? Hmmmm, I guess not.
In the meanwhile the Gorgon LNG project got the FID (Final Investment Decision) in Australia… the gas is quite dirty (a lot of CO2) and they plan to separate and sequester the CO2. I cynically asked the project guys if they had a backup plan to emit the CO2 if things get a tad chilly. Strangely no one laughed… I guess I am just a smidge peculiar when it comes to humour.
Considering Arctic summer sea ice extent has rapidly decreased by over twenty percent over the last thirty years, it seems perfectly fair to expect this trend to continue leading to the ultimate result of nil summer ice coverage.
The rate of decline is incredibly fast in Geological terms.
But the Canucks are teh screwed… their Winter Olympics will have to be called off it seems:
http://www.vancouversun.com/technology/Vancouver+Olympics+could+face+lack+snow+Accuweather/2102994/story.html#
What’s the white stuff on the web cams?
http://www.whistlerblackcomb.com/weather/cams/index.htm
Feel free to post links to evidence 4 Billion. Links are allowed, nay encouraged, here.
Only if you totally ignore history and the fact that the ice has done this repeatedly in the past.
That cyclic behavior is documented in the historical record. Your view only makes sense if you assume a linear tread. If on the other hand, you assume that it is a natural cycle (as documented historically), the perfectly logical conclusion is that the ice will do precisely what it has done numerous times in the past and quickly recover.
Larry
Eddie Murphy (14:33:23) :
Try; http://www.agweb.com/ >” Crop comments”
for comments on the weather situation from the real farm folks whose yearly income is on the line with your current US weather.
And the USA National Agricultural Statistics Service for the situation re the USA harvest progress.
Not good at all for the planet’s long term food outlook if a weather pattern like the current one in the US and now in eastern Europe continues to reappear and in perhaps in an even more serious form in future seasons.
http://usda.mannlib.cornell.edu/MannUsda/viewDocumentInfo.do?documentID=1048
I wonder if 4 billion is Soros? His checking account? Or is it the number of people that the poster believes should inhabit the planet? Why not kill 2 billion people? IF that’s the case, one would think you would welcome a climate catastrophe?
“Crop failures, disease, drought, extreme weather….” Savedemsharks
Yeah but you should know that the fractional reserve banksters have blown it again (as they must). We might be heading into an economic Greater Depression. The last one resulted in WWII and 50 – 80 million dead. This carbon nonsense comes at a very bad time economically.
Our banking and money system is fundamentally unstable. New regulations will merely damp the system and not fix it.
I’m frankly surprised there is ANY ‘sea ice’ in the arctic at all! Considering it forms over water (and considering water’s higher heat capacity, the fact that those waters are not stagnant, etc.).
Next …
.
.
Michael, it is considered really bad form to ‘spam’ the threads like this; we’ve seen these links to Alex Jones’ (Pinhead ConspiratorialistTM) website more than just a few times now …
I’m sure I speak for more than just a few others on this matter.
.
.
4 billion (19:40:27) :
Apparently 4 Billion was born after the introduction of satellites so it is “perfectly fair” to assume that his climate knowledge is limited to the last 30 years
and he provides no scientific data to backup his statement.
“… the gas is quite dirty (a lot of CO2) and they plan to separate and sequester the CO2.” Bulldust
CO2 = dirt?
Hopefully, you guys won’t seem too silly in the future. Maybe you can erect a bottling plant on the site and sell carbonated beverages. Or maybe the gas can be sold to local farmers to raise crop yields. Or maybe you can run turbines off it for power.
Can an error this huge (the CO2 scare) ever be admitted?
Bring on the cold. It is less a danger than the lunatics in charge, IMO.
hotrod (19:50:15) :
Only if you totally ignore history and the fact that the ice has done this repeatedly in the past.
That cyclic behavior is documented in the historical record. Your view only makes sense if you assume a linear tread. If on the other hand, you assume that it is a natural cycle (as documented historically), the perfectly logical conclusion is that the ice will do precisely what it has done numerous times in the past and quickly recover.
I am looking at the linear trend in the well known plot,
http://nsidc.org/data/seaice_index/images/n_plot_hires.png
The thing that strikes me is short time frame over which such a massive amount of ice has been lost.
here is plot for coverage since 1900
http://espanol.wunderground.com/climate/SeaIce_Fig04.asp?MR=1
Of course we have no data to say if such a decrease in coverage has occured over such a time period previously.
To say that this is a natural cycle, it is fair to expect there to be a natural driver of this change.
The only driver that has significantly changed is temperature, seems fair to expect then this is the driver of signifcant change.
Following on with the cyclic nature of change, sure, ice coverage would return when temperature drops again.
James
ps TJA..if only 4 bil was my cheque account 🙂
fyi I use it because it is the rough age of the planet.
Back2Bat (20:44:06) :
Standard industry parlance I am afriad – dirty in the gas industry equates to a lot of non-hydrocarbon gas impurities (in Gorgon’s case, a lot oc CO2). The Gorgon project has always been described as sufferring from a lot of D’s – Distant (offshore), Deep, Dirty, Dry (not much LPG content)… etc some add Difficult. But it is going ahead nonetheless… the plant is to be on an A class nature reserve (Barrow Island) off the NW coast of Western Australia. Needless to say the Greens are real happy about that >.>
Just like other “technical” terms in other industries… “red mud”, “slimes”, “sludge”, “slug”… somewhere I have a paper that says something about a degree in bucket chemistry (Minerals Engineering – i.e. extractive metallurgy).
But I digress…
So, I’m curious… given the previous post, am I to understand that we’ll need stilts when (if) all this snow melts?
Mark
“. . . something called “Protect our Winters” who want to “fight climate change”. I wonder what they think now?”
Well I think that your use of “think” in connection w/ this group is uncommonly gracious and generous.
Snowy World Cup qualifier:
http://soccernet.espn.go.com/report?id=236564&cc=5901
Thanks Bull. I’m glad I stuck to nice clean electrons and computer bits. It’s nice though that some guys get to play with mud even after they grow up.
Don’t be too hard on the Greens. Most of our problems can be traced to the unstable banking and money system. It takes counterfeit money to really wreck the environment.
Not sure I get it. Dozens of links to dozens of things are posted on WUWT comments every day. Apart from the fact that the site pointed at looked a bit sensationalist, what was different about this one? It was certainly on topic.