While early autumn snowstorms aren’t uncommon in US weather history, they tend to be quick affairs that melt off quickly in a day or two. This however is a bit different in that we have a significant portion of the northern Midwest plains and northern Rockies are snow covered and it is not quickly dissipating, in fact it is increasing. Since October 10th the coverage has increased from 13.2% of the USA covered by snow.
This map below is from NOAA’s NOHRSC National Snow Analysis page.
Here is the accompanying table and discussion:
October 13, 2009
| Area Covered By Snow: | 19.9% |
| Area Covered Last Month: | 0.0% |
| Snow Depth | |
|---|---|
| Average: | 0.7 in |
| Minimum: | 0.0 in |
| Maximum: | 728.8 in |
| Std. Dev.: | 2.1 in |
| Snow Water Equivalent | |
| Average: | 0.1 in |
| Minimum: | 0.0 in |
| Maximum: | 403.4 in |
| Std. Dev.: | 0.4 in |
By way of comparison, here is the October 13th USA snow cover for the last few years:
2003- .7
2004- .3
2005- 1.7
2006- 3.7
2007- .3
2008-12.7
2009-19.9
What is also interesting is the 6 year trend of snow depth on this date.
2003- 38.2 in
2004-322.6 in
2005-456.9 in
2006-223.2 in
2007-458.1 in
2008-600.6 in
2009-728.8 in
You can watch the snow cover advance in the animation they provide:
Click for animation of the last 72 hours
Weather Summary
A series of potent systems moved across the coterminous U.S. this weekend, and they brought snow to the north and rain to the south. Late last week, heavy rain fell across the south, which continued to aggravate river flooding and keep soils most.
On Friday, up to 1 foot of snow fell at higher elevations in Wyoming, mainly due to upslope flow from a surface low which moved across the Plains. This same system produced up to 1 1/2 feet of snow to mainly Nebraska Friday and Saturday. Lighter amounts – up to 1/2 foot – fell across the southern Dakotas. On Monday, another system produced light snow across the Upper Midwest and western Great Lakes.
Much of the Western snowpack is cold and stable due due to unseasonably cold air temperatures in those areas. Along the southern edge of the snowpack – from southeastern Idaho to southern Wyoming and from southern Nebraska through southern Iowa, warm and melting conditions were present.
A deep, strong offshore system off the West Coast with potent onshore flow will cause widespread heavy rainfall across the northern two-thirds of California. Up to a foot of snow is possible in the high-elevation central Sierra Nevada, but it will be mixed with rain.
The energy of this West Coast system will shift northward and bring moderate rainfall – 1 to 2 inches – to the coastal Northwest and the Cascades on Wednesday and Thursday.
A midlevel trough will develop across the eastern U.S., and a stationary front across the South will be a focus for heavy rainfall through midweek, and this rain will shift to the Middle Atlantic states late this week.
As the West Coast system lifts northward, midlevel ridging will develop progress smartly across the West. Daily maximum temperatures are expected to be above freezing in much of the West by Friday. The ridge will move into the central U.S. by the weekend and bring seasonable temperatures to the Plains and Upper Midwest, causing snowmelt there.
Snow Reports
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h/t to WUWT reader Mike Bryant
Since it is new snow, NSIDC will tell us it should not be taken seriously. Only snow that has been around for 3 years should count.
(irony off)
I hate to cave to the AGW’ers but they were correct with the “hockey stick” depiction of global temperatures. They just had it the wrong way up when it’s really down. We’re in for a cold winter.
Robert Wykoff (16:45:56) :
I don’t know if you guys remember the show “In Search Of” with host Leonard Nemoy in the 1970’s.
Yes, I do remember that, and the language is all too familar.
Might be the joke is on us this time.
So, will Spock do a Part IV, or will Kirk best him for the helm in real life too?
The El Nino in the Pacific is a rather small one. We are not cold “in spite of” an El Nino. We are cold because the El Nino isn’t particularly a hot one. Not enough to scorch the Earth like the 98 El Nino. But it does kick up the water vapor which in turn turns up the humidity, which in turn falls as snow in Winter.
Obviously Gore Effect snow and temps. Move along. Nothing to see.
I was comparing Unisys SST maps and it looks like the ocean temps. could contribute to more cold outbreaks over the Winter if the cooling trend keeps up.
OCT 10th
http://weather.unisys.com/archive/sst/sst_anom-091011.gif
OCT 14th
http://weather.unisys.com/surface/sst_anom.html
Looks almost like the downtrend and advance and deepening of blues accelerated since El Nino decided to strengthen just a little. It seems to provide a stunning base to prove Tallbloke’s theories on deep long solar minimum and its effects on SST’s.
Here in Kansas Wichita is reported to have had its coldest start to October since records began, we’re well below average and Intellicast is indicating we’ll get into the 60’s starting tomorrow but stay below average.
Re crosspatch (09:41:40) :
You write “And a note about the storm that just passed through the SF Bay area: in my 13 years here, I can’t remember a storm that blew over so many trees.”
On our southern island of Tasmania, there was a strong wind storm, followed by a TV crew interviewing a local farmer.
TV: “Sure was a strong wind last night”
Farmer: “Yep, blew down a lot of trees that had never been blown down before.”
BTW, this thing named snow. We have organised life so that we do not have it as a nuisance, but as a playground it is only a drive of a few hours. Skilled people are invited to migrate here, with $ assistance. Think about it.
tallbloke asked, “Yeah, what’s happening in Canuckshire?”
Chilly and damp mid Vancouver Island. Grey and miserable thanksgiving. Max 11 Celsius yesterday, Max 14 Celsius today.
Slightly O/T; have you seen the latest doomsaying re the Arctic from the BBC?
“Arctic to be ‘ice-free in summer'”
http://news.bbc.co.uk/2/hi/science/nature/8307272.stm
Sorry, can’t take them seriously any more.
My only comment is that I hope nobody points this snow cover issue out to Al Gore. He already has had a tough week after being informed in a very cold Madison, Wisconsin that there are more polar bears now then there were ten years ago. He almost stroked out when this fact was presented to him and now he has to deal with this. I just don’t think the Goracle’s mind and body is designed to handle this kind of rejection.
Well, it snowed here in VT today. The temp is forecast to come within 3 degrees of a record low.
But that 20% is in the bit that doesn’t count. It’s just Idaho, the Dakotas, Iowa, and the other bits that no-one uses.
Yep we have confirmation:
http://www.theaustralian.news.com.au/story/0,25197,26213406-601,00.html
Arctic is definitely going to be ice free by 2020. I guess the end if nigh for the polar bears too! Oh the humanity!!1!1!eleven
PS> I see this is from the Polar Ocean Physics Group from Cambridge University… so should we refer to them as a Cambridge University POP Group?
Everyone here who has been a parent knows a child coming down with a cold goes through fever and chills first. So it is with Mother earth! Stand by for the coughs and sneezes to follow!
My understanding is that Global warming is expected to cause global climate change, it seems fair that the unusual weather patterns in Americas mid west are evidence of changing weather patterns.
Changing weather patterns are also evidenced by changing populations of animal and plant life.
Global warming doesn’t mean that everywhere becomes warmer in a short period of time, sure the general trend is for warming, but there is still plenty of Cold air mass to be moved around.
Dan Murphy (15:59:55) :
“What effect on temperature and climate does the solar wind, CMEs and solar flares have? There is a tremendous amount of energy in these phenomena, …”
I predict that Dr. Svalgaard’s response to this would be(in essence but more elegantly expressed).
1) No detectable effect.
and
2)(There is a tremendous amount of energy in these phenomena, ) No there isn’t. Compared with the electromagnetic energy from the sun it is minuscule.
I assert that I am the curmudgeonliest one of all.
PS And the world champion pedant as well.
Bill, yes, Shukman’s sycophantic Catlin coverage was a total embarassment, and without doubt the worst ‘scientific’ reporting I have ever seen (in particular when he got someone to jump through a few inches of a recently refrozen lead, and then stating that this thin ice was evidence of global warming). But the BBC is a big organisation and there are still a few independent thinkers in there, as Stephen Sackur demonstrated when interviewing GreenPeace’s Dr Gerd Leipold for HardTalk:
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=d6phCQG25V8&feature=related
I think it is important to give credit where it is due, that way more journalists and reporters will feel more confident in questioning the alarmists’ bad science and spin.
Re: Slightly O/T; have you seen the latest doomsaying re the Arctic from the BBC?
The “National” news on Canada’s CBC (Communist Broadcasting Corporation) covered the Catlin Expedition nonsense tonight. Funny there was no mention as to how the intrepid explorers on that expedition almost froze to death due to the unseasonably (even for the Arctic) cold and stormy weather at the time. Anyway they droned on about the measurement of the thinner first year ice, not bothering to mention of course that the path chosen for the expedition was well, across the thinner first year ice! At the end of the piece they did manage to mumble something about how the ice extent has actually recovered “a little bit” over the last two years but failed to mention that “a little bit” was actually 23%!!
They should force these journalists to put a bit of skin in the game! Like if their statement of an ice free Arctic in 10 years doesn’t come true, we get to line them up against a wall and shoot them!!!
Australia has just had an intensly cold winter. Record setting all over australia. Prepare to freeze.
“Sorry, can’t take them seriously any more.”
What, you mean you’ve actually taken the BBC seriously before this?
O’Reilly and Miller’s Comic Relief on Phelim McAleer’s Questioning of Al Gore’s Science 10-14-09
. . . or that the 23% represented almost an additional million square kilometers of sea ice cover!
Simon (14:28:26) :
Simon says
“Don’t let it get too cold or the Bees will die off.” The bes pollinate the flowers that give us our fruits, and others as well!
Your wise statement now applies to the Bees, the hard working class…they give us our fruits…
“Bulldust (18:26:02) :
Yep we have confirmation:
http://www.theaustralian.news.com.au/story/0,25197,26213406-601,00.html
Arctic is definitely going to be ice free by 2020. I guess the end if nigh for the polar bears too! Oh the humanity!!1!1!eleven”
To make any approximation of their carefully thought out plan the Catlin “Expedition” were forced to stick to the smoother first year ice. The data that they collected is primarily that of the thinner 1st year ice.
At th same time as the Catlin croud was testing the 1st year ice a spoil sport German group in an upgraded DC-3 flew a much larger area and found thicker than expected ice.