While early autumn snowstorms aren’t uncommon in US weather history, they tend to be quick affairs that melt off quickly in a day or two. This however is a bit different in that we have a significant portion of the northern Midwest plains and northern Rockies are snow covered and it is not quickly dissipating, in fact it is increasing. Since October 10th the coverage has increased from 13.2% of the USA covered by snow.
This map below is from NOAA’s NOHRSC National Snow Analysis page.
Here is the accompanying table and discussion:
October 13, 2009
| Area Covered By Snow: | 19.9% |
| Area Covered Last Month: | 0.0% |
| Snow Depth | |
|---|---|
| Average: | 0.7 in |
| Minimum: | 0.0 in |
| Maximum: | 728.8 in |
| Std. Dev.: | 2.1 in |
| Snow Water Equivalent | |
| Average: | 0.1 in |
| Minimum: | 0.0 in |
| Maximum: | 403.4 in |
| Std. Dev.: | 0.4 in |
By way of comparison, here is the October 13th USA snow cover for the last few years:
2003- .7
2004- .3
2005- 1.7
2006- 3.7
2007- .3
2008-12.7
2009-19.9
What is also interesting is the 6 year trend of snow depth on this date.
2003- 38.2 in
2004-322.6 in
2005-456.9 in
2006-223.2 in
2007-458.1 in
2008-600.6 in
2009-728.8 in
You can watch the snow cover advance in the animation they provide:
Click for animation of the last 72 hours
Weather Summary
A series of potent systems moved across the coterminous U.S. this weekend, and they brought snow to the north and rain to the south. Late last week, heavy rain fell across the south, which continued to aggravate river flooding and keep soils most.
On Friday, up to 1 foot of snow fell at higher elevations in Wyoming, mainly due to upslope flow from a surface low which moved across the Plains. This same system produced up to 1 1/2 feet of snow to mainly Nebraska Friday and Saturday. Lighter amounts – up to 1/2 foot – fell across the southern Dakotas. On Monday, another system produced light snow across the Upper Midwest and western Great Lakes.
Much of the Western snowpack is cold and stable due due to unseasonably cold air temperatures in those areas. Along the southern edge of the snowpack – from southeastern Idaho to southern Wyoming and from southern Nebraska through southern Iowa, warm and melting conditions were present.
A deep, strong offshore system off the West Coast with potent onshore flow will cause widespread heavy rainfall across the northern two-thirds of California. Up to a foot of snow is possible in the high-elevation central Sierra Nevada, but it will be mixed with rain.
The energy of this West Coast system will shift northward and bring moderate rainfall – 1 to 2 inches – to the coastal Northwest and the Cascades on Wednesday and Thursday.
A midlevel trough will develop across the eastern U.S., and a stationary front across the South will be a focus for heavy rainfall through midweek, and this rain will shift to the Middle Atlantic states late this week.
As the West Coast system lifts northward, midlevel ridging will develop progress smartly across the West. Daily maximum temperatures are expected to be above freezing in much of the West by Friday. The ridge will move into the central U.S. by the weekend and bring seasonable temperatures to the Plains and Upper Midwest, causing snowmelt there.
Snow Reports
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h/t to WUWT reader Mike Bryant
The massive drop in ice recently was not due to temperature but due to changes in the prevailing winds pushing large amounts of ice out of the arctic basin. This is one of the things that make the AGW warnings of dire warming so disingenuous. The loss of ice was not due to melting but physical transport out of the arctic due to the wind.
Remember the video clip that Al Gore had showing the “pulse of the planet” where you could see the motion of sea ice in the arctic. In that clip you can see the normal process where sea ice gets driven by winds out past Greenland into the Atlantic ocean. There are several threads here in the recent past that give loads of information on the process of arctic ice transport due to prevailing winds and historical references to earlier cycles of low ice extent.
For example of the cyclic nature, you only need to look at historical records of periods when the North east passage was relatively ice free (like in the early 1900’s), in the 1945-1970’s period there is a clearly documented cooling spell, the modern ice extent measurements “just happen” to start (from satellite data) about the time the ice reached historical high extent when satellite data began. That gives a false impression of the trend because the starting point was at a peak in the cycle.
Larry
Definitely cold in Calgary, we’ve set an all time low for one day this month, and we’ve exceeded the normal amount of snow for the month (10cm) with about 15cm (6 in) of snow in the last 2 days.
Caitlin Ice Survey?
With most of their gear non-functional, life-sign equipment on the fritz, going backwards etc., drilling by hand in the thinnest places he could find, the word survey seems sadly out of place.
North Pole summers ice-free in 10 years: researchers say
Last Updated: Wednesday, October 14, 2009 | 8:45 PM ET
The Associated Press
The North Pole will turn into an open sea during summer within a decade, according to data released Wednesday by a team of explorers who trekked through the Arctic for three months.
The Catlin Arctic Survey team, led by explorer Pen Hadow, measured the thickness of the ice as it sledged and hiked through the northern part of the Beaufort Sea earlier this year during a research project.
Their findings show that most of the ice in the region is first-year ice that is only around 1.8 metres deep and will melt next summer. The region has traditionally contained thicker multiyear ice, which does not melt as rapidly.
“With a larger part of the region now first-year ice, it is clearly more vulnerable,” said Professor Peter Wadhams, part of the Polar Ocean Physics Group at the University of Cambridge, which analyzed the data.
“The area is now more likely to become open water each summer, bringing forward the potential date when the summer sea ice will be completely gone.”
Wadhams said the Catlin Arctic Survey data supports the new consensus that the Arctic will be ice-free in summer within 20 years, and that much of the decrease will happen within 10 years.
Martin Sommerkorn of the World Wildlife Fund said the Arctic sea holds a central position in the Earth’s climate system.
“Such a loss of Arctic sea ice cover has recently been assessed to set in motion powerful climate feedbacks which will have an impact far beyond the Arctic itself,” he said.
He added: “This could lead to flooding affecting one-quarter of the world’s population, substantial increases in greenhouse gas emissions from massive carbon pools and extreme global weather changes.”
Global warming has raised the stakes in the scramble for sovereignty in the Arctic because shrinking polar ice could someday open resource development and new shipping lanes.
The rapid melting of ice has raised speculation that the Northwest Passage linking the Atlantic and Pacific oceans could one day become a regular shipping lane.
The results come as negotiators prepare to meet in Copenhagen in December to draft a global climate pact.
Where is that pesky ManBearPig?
Near Here we have an animal hospital named “CatManDog”.
4 billion (19:40:27) :
Considering Arctic summer sea ice extent has rapidly decreased by over twenty percent over the last thirty years, it seems perfectly fair to expect this trend to continue leading to the ultimate result of nil summer ice coverage.
The rate of decline is incredibly fast in Geological terms.
O´really?
http://wattsupwiththat.files.wordpress.com/2008/03/changing-artic_monthly_wx_review.png
http://i680.photobucket.com/albums/vv161/Radiant_2009/popularmechanics1957-2.jpg
here is plot for coverage since 1900
http://espanol.wunderground.com/climate/SeaIce_Fig04.asp?MR=1
Of course we have no data to say if such a decrease in coverage has occurred over such a time period previously.
Correct. We have semi-reliable satellite data since 1978.
The graph above is bunk, since if NW Passage was passable in 1944, arctic sea ice could not be much higher than in 2007, 2008 and 2009.
“A series of potent systems moved across the coterminous U.S.”
“coterminous” is defined as: “having the same or coincident boundaries .”
But that’s meaningless in the context, since there aren’t two entities involved. The word they’re groping for is “contiguous,” which means “Connecting without a break: the 48 contiguous states.“
Robert Wykoff (16:45:56) :
I don’t know if you guys remember the show “In Search Of” with host Leonard Nemoy in the 1970’s. The other day I was surfing around and found a link to this video. It is about global cooling and the coming of the new ice age. The video is in 3 parts. I encourage everyone to watch it. It was not the content so much (though great) that interested me, it was the eerily f amiliar use of language that captivated me. I was in stitches!
http://algorelied.com/?p=2839
~~~~~
It might also be mentioned that the Standford Climate Scientist who was going on about the impending ice age (in 1977) is a current acolyte of the Goracle and now preaches AGW.
I go to a bluff top (about one hour each day) at Scripps Institute of Oceanography almost daily. Last week I reported seeing about 60 gray whales (over 3 days) migrating south over 30 days early. I wonder how they knew whats up, or rather whats down, as in an temperatures and an early winter, especially since NOAA reported such warm SST ?
How did the whales know?
4 billion (18:35:00) :
My understanding is that Global warming is expected to cause global climate change, it seems fair that the unusual weather patterns in Americas mid west are evidence of changing weather patterns.
Welcome 4-billion (or James I think it is from your later postings) – you’ve found a site where debate is alive and well; hope you stick around.
Your point above is a common theme in the AGW camp. However, I think that it’s a totally circular statement (and a logical fallacy) and, as such, can never be disproved or argued with. To paraphrase the point: if it gets warmer this ‘proves’ AGW, if it gets colder this ‘proves’ AGW, if anything changes it ‘proves’ AGW. This cannot be the basis of a scientific theory.
There is the view (used to be part of the scientific method) that where an existing theory exists and a new hypothesis comes along, the upstart should present tests by which the old way of thinking can be seen to be false and the new approach seen to be a better fit. (Think Einstein vs Newton + transit of mecury). With AGW the incumbent theory is “natural variation”, to whit what is observed all fits within the normal variability of the Earth’s climate system.
AGW needs to predict or produce some form of tests to take the crown. To my mind, and many others, computer-models to not constitute tests or proofs.
The basic science around AGW seems fundamentally flawed, with shoddy record keeping, cherry-picking of data and bad mathematics, with a great propensity to fit linear trends on a natural, dynamic system (go figure). Do I think that the various proponents of AGW are all “in-on-it” in some grand conspiracy? No, just look up the term “group-think”.
So what of other tests and predictions (sorry projections) from AGW? More and greater violence storms/hurricanes – nope, not happening very quiet on that front. Arctic ice going – nope, big loss in 07 due to winds, recovering quite nicely at the moment (yes I know it’s only been a few years but the Arctic sea ice records are only 30 years in length). Rising sea levels – nope actually flat-lining at the moment, increasing temps – nope just like sea levels.
Do I think the Earth may be warming on a truly long-term trend – yes I think so (coming out of an ice-age and all that). Do I think man has an influence on his environment – yes, we should all be more responsible (recycle, clean-up rivers, not pollute etc.). Do I think man’s CO2 emissions are resulting in runaway warming to a “tipping point” that means the sky-is-falling and the only way to solve this is by ludicrous taxation schemes and knee-jerk reactions – absolutely not.
Cheers
Mark
Extrapolating that snow depth graph out to 2100 indicates that the US will be covered in snow to a depth of 1 mile.
Where are the IPCC when you need them most?
Do we have a word in English for snow?
October 13th? – always unlucky for some.
.
Norm/Calgary (22:31:29) : “Copenhagen in December to draft a global climate pact.”
Is that a typo, Norm? Did you really mean: “Copenhagen in December to draft a global snow pact.” ?
728.8 inches of snow sounds pretty unbelievable. This is from the region North-West. Does that include Alaska? The Rockies anywhere near have no more than 26 inches. So either this figure is plain wrong. Or it is from Alaska, but then I’d like to know: this ubelievable spot must have a name and somebody will have to explain the extreme changes in a few years time.
@ur momisugly 4 billion.
Has anyone sailed to within 300Nm, (85ºN) of the North Pole in December without breaking ice since the Soviet icebreaker Syedoff got frozen in up there on December 18th 1938?
DaveE.
Patrick Davis (02:40:15) :
“Do we have a word in English for snow?”
Interestingly there is a Thai word for snow which can be transcribed in English as ‘hee-maa’. There hasn’t been any snow in Thailand for I would think a very long time but they have a word for it so maybe it has snowed there at some time in the past – perhaps the LIA? The word is probably of Sanskrit origin – and no doubt has the same root as the word ‘Himalayas’.
(Note that you have to be careful how you say ‘hee-maa’ in Thailand because, if you get the tones wrong, you could end up offending people by talking about the most intimate part of the female equine anatomy!)
Clive: We can vouch for recent conditions in SW Alberta; we were caught in a really bad blizzard a week ago (8th Oct) between Pincher Creek and Fort Macleod. The temp plummeted with the blizzard from +3C to -4C in a few minutes. There had been snow off and on since the previous Saturday; a lot of it lay around in a way our hosts commented on, having said originally that it wouldn’t last the day. The temps after that blizzard went pretty low, often -12C at night and down to -14C on the Friday night. This was our first visit to Canada; very interesting, to say the least! Especially as I seem to recall some quite warmish weather being forecast for some of those days.
It was a treat to return to the pleasant balmy weather in England, though it’s turned a bit foul today.
as ye believe…so shall it be – the basis of climate change
much more to say later , now just thanks to the site as cryosphere today appears to be crumbling
p.s. no snow yet in Ireland….last year we had our first october snow in 73 years
It’s snowing in Morris County NJ, but I don’t expect any accumulation.
COLD here in New Hampshire. What’s really sad is that I mentionned “Global Warming” to several folks grousing about the cold. Sadly, their serious reply to me was “Yes, I’ve read that GW causes cold weather” They look at me like I have two heads when I respond that a theory that predicts everything is a theory that predicts nothing.
USDA, farmers report varied harvest progress
http://www.agriculture.com/ag/story.jhtml;jsessionid=CUJDLYDLPDNF0CQCEAQSCZQ?storyid=/templatedata/ag/story/data/1255471174562.xml
Whether the crops are ready or not, the freezing temps that have slid through corn and soybean country in the last few days have slammed the book on the growing season in most of the Midwest. So, what’s that mean?
About a quarter of the country’s corn will leave the field immature. As of this past weekend, about 3/4 of the nation’s corn crop is fully matured, according to Tuesday’s USDA Crop Progress report. That’s almost 20% more than a week ago, but still almost 20% below the previous 5-year average.
Corn harvest is at a similar pace: 13% of the corn crop’s out of the field, versus the previous 5-year average of 35%. Only 3% of the corn crop was harvested in the last week, according to Tuesday’s report.
The action’s just as slow with the soybean crop. While 89% of that crop is matured (closer to the normal 95% level for this week of the year), only 23% has been harvested, less than half of the usual pace by this point (57%).
Climate change on the Yucatan Peninsula during the Little Ice Age.
http://www.ncdc.noaa.gov/paleo/metadata/noaa-lake-6107.html
http://www.pnas.org/content/104/41/16200.full.pdf
Little Ice Age drought in equatorial Africa: Intertropical Convergence Zone migrations and El Niño–Southern Oscillation variability — Geology
http://geology.gsapubs.org/content/35/1/21.abstract
Little ice age drought russell_johnson_2007.pdf
http://www.seas.harvard.edu/climate/seminars/pdfs/russell_johnson_2007.pdf
NASA – The Fall of the Maya: “They Did it to Themselves”
http://science.nasa.gov/headlines/y2009/06oct_maya.htm?list1100868
Get the picture? This makes you wonder how 7 billion people could possibly get through a little ice age. Relocation would be required for many in the worst climate zones and greenhouse food production with reliable water sources would likely have to replace the commercial farming methods used now.
Gee I was wrong, the snow has alredy accumulated on the grass here in Morris County NJ. I’m glad it is just weather.
Mark Fawcet:
“The basic science around AGW seems fundamentally flawed, with shoddy record keeping, cherry-picking of data and bad mathematics.”
We have a handy example of cherry picking, thanks to our friend 4 Billion. The link to the ice extent begins from 1980, which happens to coincide to when the late twentieth century warming began. It ignores the well documented evidence of cyclic advances and retreats of ice extent, and the MWP.