Updated 9AM PST Friday 8/21
Bill continues to weaken and is looking less organized. It now has 115 mph sustained winds.
Bill is visible in the center of the image below. This satellite image will update every 30 minutes.
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The probability plot for 120 hours out shows Bill likely to make a sharp turn to the north, affecting Nova Scotia, but with no landfall. It’s remnants may affect northern England:
BULLETIN HURRICANE BILL ADVISORY NUMBER 25...CORRECTED NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL032009 1100 AM AST FRI AUG 21 2009 CORRECTED FOR TRACK PARAGRAPH ...LARGE HURRICANE BILL ON A STEADY NORTHWESTWARD TRACK...RAINBANDS ALREADY AFFECTING BERMUDA... A TROPICAL STORM WARNING AND A HURRICANE WATCH ARE IN EFFECT FOR BERMUDA. INTERESTS ALONG THE COAST OF NEW ENGLAND AND IN THE CANADIAN MARITIMES SHOULD MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF BILL. FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA IN THE UNITED STATES...INCLUDING POSSIBLE INLAND WATCHES AND WARNINGS...PLEASE MONITOR PRODUCTS ISSUED BY YOUR LOCAL NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORECAST OFFICE. FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA OUTSIDE OF THE UNITED STATES...PLEASE MONITOR PRODUCTS ISSUED BY YOUR NATIONAL METEOROLOGICAL SERVICE. AT 1100 AM AST...1500 UTC...THE CENTER OF HURRICANE BILL WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 27.6 NORTH...LONGITUDE 66.3 WEST OR ABOUT 335 MILES... 540 KM...SOUTH-SOUTHWEST OF BERMUDA AND ABOUT 755 MILES...1215 KM... SOUTHEAST OF CAPE HATTERAS NORTH CAROLINA. BILL IS MOVING TOWARD THE NORTHWEST NEAR 18 MPH...30 KM/HR. A GRADUAL TURN TO THE NORTH-NORTHWEST AND THEN NORTH IS EXPECTED LATER TODAY AND SATURDAY. ON THE FORECAST TRACK...THE CORE OF HURRICANE BILL IS EXPECTED TO PASS OVER THE OPEN WATERS BETWEEN BERMUDA AND THE EAST COAST OF THE UNITED STATES ON SATURDAY. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 115 MPH...185 KM/HR...WITH HIGHER GUSTS. BILL IS A CATEGORY THREE HURRICANE ON THE SAFFIR-SIMPSON SCALE. SOME FLUCTUATIONS IN INTENSITY ARE LIKELY TODAY AND SATURDAY. BILL REMAINS A LARGE TROPICAL CYCLONE. HURRICANE FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 115 MILES...185 KM...FROM THE CENTER...AND TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 290 MILES...465 KM. RADAR FROM BERMUDA INDICATES THAT SOME RAINBANDS ARE ALREADY AFFECTING BERMUDA. ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 958 MB...28.29 INCHES. BILL IS EXPECTED TO PRODUCE TOTAL RAIN ACCUMULATIONS OF 1 TO 3 INCHES OVER BERMUDA...WITH MAXIMUM AMOUNTS OF 5 INCHES. THE BERMUDA WEATHER SERVICE FORECAST THAT THE STORM TIDE WILL RAISE WATER LEVELS BY AS MUCH AS 3 FEET ABOVE GROUND LEVEL ALONG THE COAST...ALONG WITH LARGE AND DANGEROUS BATTERING WAVES...IN ADVANCE OF BILL. LARGE SWELLS GENERATED BY THIS HURRICANE ARE AFFECTING PUERTO RICO...HISPANIOLA...THE BAHAMAS...AND BERMUDA...AND SHOULD BEGIN AFFECTING MOST OF THE U.S. EAST COAST AND THE ATLANTIC MARITIMES OF CANADA DURING THE NEXT DAY OR TWO. THESE SWELLS WILL LIKELY CAUSE EXTREMELY DANGEROUS SURF AND LIFE-THREATENING RIP CURRENTS. ...SUMMARY OF 1100 AM AST INFORMATION... LOCATION...27.6N 66.3W MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...115 MPH PRESENT MOVEMENT...NORTHWEST OR 325 DEGREES AT 18 MPH MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...958 MB AN INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER AT 200 PM AST FOLLOWED BY THE NEXT COMPLETE ADVISORY AT 500 PM AST.
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It seems to me that if you include evaporation as the major ocean->air heat transfer mechanism, then a hurricane is hoovering an awful lot of heat out of the ocean. Presumably this goes straight up and increases Hadley Cell/trade wind circulation while radiating away the heat from evaporation.
Thus if Willis’s ITCZ cu-nims act as a daily regulator of tropical ocean heat flow, maybe the hurricanes provide a similar seasonal feedback?
Skeptic tank:
A good moniker for anyone who lives on LI, especially in mostly sewerless Suffolk County!
Gloria in 1985 probably hit Fire Island as a waning Cat 2; still, it virtually destroyed the power grid in Suffolk, which had to be rebuilt from the substations up. My cousin in Shoreham was without juice for ten days in an all-electric house; down the road a piece in Rocky Point, another family set, ardent Mets fans all, had no TV for five days just when the Amazin’s, after a decade of struggling for mediocrity, were finally in the midst of a late September pennant race (‘wait ’til next year’ came true, for once).
Bob in 1992 gave the North Shore east of Northport a rather nasty sideswipe, spawning mini-tornadoes and bringing down thousands of trees. Another shining hour for LILCO, or whatever its name is now.
Both of these most recent hurricane impacts on LI occurred when the AMO was still in its cool phase. Also, both storms were coast-huggers disrupted by interaction with land. If Bill’s path were to follow the westernmost edge of the TPC’s current (0900 UTC) probability cone, it would make first landfall on Cape Cod, after traveling over open water significantly warmer (warm phase of the AMO) and would almost certainly bring hurricane conditions to the Twin Forks (hurricane-force winds should extend at least a hundred miles to the west of the center). There are still model runs that bring the storm even further west; a westward correction of a few degrees would bring Bill along the path followed by the Long Island Express of 1938.
It all depends on how Bill interacts with a series of upper troughs. There should be a greater degree of certainty by tomorrow evening. My eyes will be glued to the water vapor loop on the TPC site.
Hmm that implies one needs a temperature/depth profile of the ocean before a hurricane goes by and then one after.
I presume there will have been a temperature drop and that may give an idea of just how much heat was taken from the ocean by the monster, and from what depth range (deeper mixing layer in storm).
One more Long Island hurricane story. Back when __Weatherwise__ magazine was still worth reading, they ran an excellent article on what Hurricane Bob looked like as the eye passed over Block Island, from the vantage of Montauk Point, fifteen or so miles to the west.
Don’t Worry; Be Happy. HOWEVER, if one is going to be an Alarmist, it makes far more sense to fret about this sort of huge hurricane. Be a boy scout: “Be prepared.” Even a 95% probability it goes out to sea leaves that 5% “IF.”
People tend to think the 1938 hurricane caught people off guard because they had no satillites back then. However if you look at its track you can see the 1938 storm was curving out to sea very nicely. The weather beureau was well aware it was there, and paying close attention. However it was only in the final 18 hours that the steering currents altered, and the hurricane swerved back towards land. It also sped up, and charged north at over 45 mph.
Even with all our satillites and other gadgets, a sudden shift in the structure of steering currents could put us in similar shoes. Just imagine the traffic jam, as thousands and thousands of cars all attempted to escape Cape Cod on short notice. (It would make a good movie.) Even there is only a 5% chance of this occurring, Be Prepared.
Bill’s Turning Point
hurricanes by seablogger
Today is a crucial day in the history of hurricane Bill. The hurricane has reached category four force, but it is also fending off some sheer from the southwest. That sheer originates from a mid latitude trough which is expected to weaken and elongate. The hurricane will win. But first it will turn. How soon, and how much? That’s the key to its future track.
There is a lot of divergence in the models. Some do bring weakening Bill close to eastern New England, and a direct hit on Nova Scotia is a distinct possibility. This does happen sometimes. A few years ago hurricane Juan caused extensive damage at Halifax.
Today’s initial turn will determine how much longitude Bill gains before the decisive turn caused by a much more powerful polar trough moving eastward from the Great Lakes. If Bill holds course today with only a slight waver, then there is danger for Cape Cod, down east Maine, and especially Nova Scotia. If Bill responds to today’s sheer by shifting from WNW to NW course, it will stay well out to sea.
From http://www.seablogger.com
You should see what it’s like in south Florida … They are crestfallen now that there were two ‘sploosh’ fizzles and one waving at us.
For a few days the excitement was so great you couldn’t go near the TV weather without protection on.
Molon Labe (03:19:37) : “NHC eagerness to name every band of thunderstorms is going to get people – enured to wolf crying – killed.”
What exact storm do you think shouldn’t have been named and why? Everything I’ve seen has been exactly within their normal guidelines. The only thing I saw was they kept Ana around for a day longer than it deserved, but they were erring on the safe side and didn’t have direct evidence that it had dissipated. As soon as they had a plane confirm there was no closed circulation, they stopped issuing advisories. Do you have a problem with their guidelines, and if so, what would you change?
I agree with Scott B.
In an environment where “climate” and “weather” have somehow become politicized, I do not have a problem with a NHS that is hair-trigger on storms. No matter how much people want to discuss, argue, or debate what is going on out there, it seems prudent to be aware of all storms during this time of year.
Also, this IS one case where the “precautionary principle” actually has meaning. Those things swirling around aren’t vague possibilities of 100-year future issues, as obviously everyone knows.
Nah, let them name every bank of thunderstorms… it’s just more paperwork for them anyway.
Well, if you are an alarmist, it doesn’t realy matter if it makes land fall or not, it is a sign of AGW. Of course, being that the first large storm started in mid august, I think that this is a sign of Global Getting Nicer-ing (GGN).
RACookPE1978 (01:16:43) :
“A “Weather Channel” we-need-something-to-talk-about storm:
This from their web page: “ATLANTIC
Tropical Storm Claudette made landfall as a 50 mile per hour tropical storm around 12:10 a.m. Central time near the east end of Santa Rosa Island, Florida, just to the southeast of Fort Walton Beach.”
As of 1 a.m. Monday morning (Central time), a very small Tropical Storm Claudette still with some 50 mph winds was located just inland near Fort Walton Beach, Florida.”
From the local (FWB) newspaper on Tuesday the 18th: “A recording station in Destin clocked a wind gust of 45 mph. The highest wind gust in Crestview was 30 mph, while winds at Eglin reached a peak of 38 mph early Monday. The Panama City Airport recorded a 36 mph gust, while Milton clocked a gust to 28 mph.”
I’m just north of Fort Walton Beach (Niceville that had 2+ in. rain) and I doubt we had 35 mph wind gusts, let alone sustained winds.
The Weather Channel has become the “Weather Entertainment Channel.” I noticed a graphic they had last week with a big low spinning clockwise.
Go Bill Go ! Just get out there and stir the ocean; we can use all the global cooling you can muster. Watch out for those little islands out there somewhere. I know a lot of people moved down to the coast so they could watch you guys (and gals) stir the oceans; but you make such a mess of their stuff when you go by. Y’alls be careful out there now, and don’t hit anything rich.
“”” Jimmy Haigh (23:46:29) :
Why don’t they just catch all the butterflies in the world and put them in a sealed room where they can flap their wings all they want without causing all these hurricanes? “””
Not to worry Jimmy; those butterflies probably flap with a Maxwell Boltzmann distribution, so they aren’t likely to stir much if you get them all together. However the heating effect of their agglomeration would be an interesting phenomenon.
Say didn’t something like this happen last year aboiut this time; seems to me they are always having big storms this time of year around Florida; maybe that’s why all the tourists go there to watch and help board the place up.
does anyone think that bill gates and his wild, swirl-producing machine caused this? just kidding, i had heard of bill’s interest in weather modification, but this hurricane looks only to be partially man-made.
@ur momisugly CodeTech:
“Nah, let them name every bank of thunderstorms… it’s just more paperwork for them anyway.”
Okey-dokey. I’d like to know what they would call the system that dumped a foot or more of rain just north of Enid, Oklahoma earlier this week! Seriously!
Ummm…that’s dry wheat country, y’know….
Another hoax.
George E. Smith (10:47:52) :
“Not to worry Jimmy; those butterflies probably flap with a Maxwell Boltzmann distribution.”
Thanks for putting my mind at rest George! But do butterflies know the flap with a Maxwell-Boltzmann distribution? I’m sure that, if I knew that I did that, that would put my blood pressure throught the roof! -and probably increase my core temperature above 98.4 to boot! And I would then, for the first time in my life, contribute to Anthopogenic GLOBAL WARMING. (The caps there were for those harbingers of climate change doom who used to be called global warmers.)
Sideswipe
hurricanes by seablogger
Hurricane Bill has weakened slightly due to continuing upper-level shear, but it remains a large and fierce hurricane as it sideswipes the Leeward Islands. I’ll bet there’s some spectacular surf at St. Martin this morning, as rollers come south from the dark-smudged horizon. It will be the same at Cape Hatteras in a few days, except the cloud edge will be further off — spokes of cirrus streaking in the distance beyond the foaming breakers. At Cape Cod the sideswipe will be closer. Darkness will cover half the sky. Stiff north winds will curl off the tops of mighty waves. Some abandoned houses will fall in the water for sure. Nova Scotia may take a direct hit from the dying storm, or its center may skim just offshore.
It’s worth mentioning that some models turn Bill more sharply as it reaches the latitude of Hatteras, and force it northeast, in which case it will just be a distant cirrus cloud for all points further north. Bill is a sideswiper, a typical September hurricane, shunted aside by polar systems. A big chilly high pressure cell will settle over the eastern as Bill passes. But it’s not September. Models of the coming weeks project conditions normally seen at the equinox. Does this presage a severe winter for the northern and eastern US. Not necessarily, but it may. Meanwhile there is no sign of additional activity in the Atlantic tropics. The three-storm flurry will be over with Bills demise.
From http://www.seablogger.com
Guess their gonna have to bring all the “news” anchors back to New York to experience the edge of this latest “storm of the century that proves global warming and the ice caps are melting and the whole world is drowning and is gonna kill us all, AAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAH!!!!!”
Film at eleven.
God is merciful.
wow.. best science blog? congratulations.. hopefully, earth become healthy.. safe our children..
phoenix mattress (08:45:24) :
God is merciful.
Because He provided that the seas were cool so as not to energize up this tropical storm…so…
THEY know it but will keep scaring people.
Happy to report that Bill underwhelmed most Nova Scotians, including me.