Updated 9AM PST Friday 8/21
Bill continues to weaken and is looking less organized. It now has 115 mph sustained winds.
Bill is visible in the center of the image below. This satellite image will update every 30 minutes.
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The probability plot for 120 hours out shows Bill likely to make a sharp turn to the north, affecting Nova Scotia, but with no landfall. It’s remnants may affect northern England:
BULLETIN HURRICANE BILL ADVISORY NUMBER 25...CORRECTED NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL032009 1100 AM AST FRI AUG 21 2009 CORRECTED FOR TRACK PARAGRAPH ...LARGE HURRICANE BILL ON A STEADY NORTHWESTWARD TRACK...RAINBANDS ALREADY AFFECTING BERMUDA... A TROPICAL STORM WARNING AND A HURRICANE WATCH ARE IN EFFECT FOR BERMUDA. INTERESTS ALONG THE COAST OF NEW ENGLAND AND IN THE CANADIAN MARITIMES SHOULD MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF BILL. FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA IN THE UNITED STATES...INCLUDING POSSIBLE INLAND WATCHES AND WARNINGS...PLEASE MONITOR PRODUCTS ISSUED BY YOUR LOCAL NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORECAST OFFICE. FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA OUTSIDE OF THE UNITED STATES...PLEASE MONITOR PRODUCTS ISSUED BY YOUR NATIONAL METEOROLOGICAL SERVICE. AT 1100 AM AST...1500 UTC...THE CENTER OF HURRICANE BILL WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 27.6 NORTH...LONGITUDE 66.3 WEST OR ABOUT 335 MILES... 540 KM...SOUTH-SOUTHWEST OF BERMUDA AND ABOUT 755 MILES...1215 KM... SOUTHEAST OF CAPE HATTERAS NORTH CAROLINA. BILL IS MOVING TOWARD THE NORTHWEST NEAR 18 MPH...30 KM/HR. A GRADUAL TURN TO THE NORTH-NORTHWEST AND THEN NORTH IS EXPECTED LATER TODAY AND SATURDAY. ON THE FORECAST TRACK...THE CORE OF HURRICANE BILL IS EXPECTED TO PASS OVER THE OPEN WATERS BETWEEN BERMUDA AND THE EAST COAST OF THE UNITED STATES ON SATURDAY. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 115 MPH...185 KM/HR...WITH HIGHER GUSTS. BILL IS A CATEGORY THREE HURRICANE ON THE SAFFIR-SIMPSON SCALE. SOME FLUCTUATIONS IN INTENSITY ARE LIKELY TODAY AND SATURDAY. BILL REMAINS A LARGE TROPICAL CYCLONE. HURRICANE FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 115 MILES...185 KM...FROM THE CENTER...AND TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 290 MILES...465 KM. RADAR FROM BERMUDA INDICATES THAT SOME RAINBANDS ARE ALREADY AFFECTING BERMUDA. ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 958 MB...28.29 INCHES. BILL IS EXPECTED TO PRODUCE TOTAL RAIN ACCUMULATIONS OF 1 TO 3 INCHES OVER BERMUDA...WITH MAXIMUM AMOUNTS OF 5 INCHES. THE BERMUDA WEATHER SERVICE FORECAST THAT THE STORM TIDE WILL RAISE WATER LEVELS BY AS MUCH AS 3 FEET ABOVE GROUND LEVEL ALONG THE COAST...ALONG WITH LARGE AND DANGEROUS BATTERING WAVES...IN ADVANCE OF BILL. LARGE SWELLS GENERATED BY THIS HURRICANE ARE AFFECTING PUERTO RICO...HISPANIOLA...THE BAHAMAS...AND BERMUDA...AND SHOULD BEGIN AFFECTING MOST OF THE U.S. EAST COAST AND THE ATLANTIC MARITIMES OF CANADA DURING THE NEXT DAY OR TWO. THESE SWELLS WILL LIKELY CAUSE EXTREMELY DANGEROUS SURF AND LIFE-THREATENING RIP CURRENTS. ...SUMMARY OF 1100 AM AST INFORMATION... LOCATION...27.6N 66.3W MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...115 MPH PRESENT MOVEMENT...NORTHWEST OR 325 DEGREES AT 18 MPH MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...958 MB AN INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER AT 200 PM AST FOLLOWED BY THE NEXT COMPLETE ADVISORY AT 500 PM AST.
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Last time NY was hit hard was probably Hazel.
Coming from the south coast of Oregon from 1986-2008,I lived through many a Sou’Wester.Winds of 75-80 kts not uncommon.My wife’s cousin who married a guy from Cape Cod, was in a Wellfleet resturant one day when a 75 mph.She had lived on the Oregon coast since 1978. They were very worried.She said to the waiter:”75mph?
you are worried about75 mph?” ” Where are YOU from lady?” the waiter replied.
I would be most worried about the Canadian Maritimes; Nova Scotia, PEI and Newfie. Looks like they might be right in the way. It would be extratropical by then but still a good blow. Wouldn’t want to be on the ferry to Port aux Basques when that thing comes through.
This is interesting:
ScienceDaily (Aug. 17, 2009) — Physicists at the University of Rochester have combed through data from satellites and ocean buoys and found evidence that in the last 50 years, the net flow of heat into and out of the oceans has changed direction three times.
and they dont blame CO2!!!!!
“……….Douglass further notes that the team found no correlation between the shifts and atmospheric carbon dioxide concentration.”
http://www.sciencedaily.com/releases/2009/08/090814103237.htm
REPLY: thanks for the tip, Anthony
OT – sorry, not getting an option to post on Notes and Tips Page currently. I’ve been following the progress of the 7 or 8 so boats trying to navigate the North West Passage this summer, here’s a summary if anyone is interested:
West to East:
Silent Sound – first to arrive at Iqalukttutiaq (Cambridge Bay) http://www.openpassageexpedition.com/live_tracking.htm
Baloum Gwen – http://www.arcticcalling.net/wordpress/ (French yacht, also just arrived at Cambridge Bay). Therri usually translates the daily blogs into English.
Ocean Watch – http://www.aroundtheamericas.org/ big American yacht also just arrived at Cambridge Bay. Blogs are worth reading, especially about Barrow and the Canadian Inuit settlements they have stopped at.
Arctic Mariner – http://www.arcticmariner.org/ – Two hardy UK Marines is an open 17ft Norseboat which they can sail, row or if necessary, haul over the ice. True adventurers, and to their credit their website does not mention the ‘fragile acrtic environment’ or the threat it faces from ‘global warming’ once. These guys are still west of Cambridge Bay, and have already had to haul the boat over 4 miles of ice.
East to West:
Fleur Australe – another French sail boat which just arrived at Cambridge Bay (from the east) so will very probably be the first to make a sucessful crossing of the passage this summer. Very experienced skipper. No website afaik.
Yacht Fiona – http://www.yachtfiona.com/fnn.htm – left Resolute a few days ago and heading south. Currently stuck in thick ice and have radioed a canadian Ice Breaker for help.
Bagan – http://northwestpassagefilm.com/arctic/ – big yacht also heading south towards Gjoa Haven – about to get into thick ice.
Cap’n Lem, Corsair F-31 UC (sail) http://www.arcticsolosail.com/index.php likeable old boy’s solo attempt which started in the Great Lakes back in April, and got to Labrador but has now postoned 2009 attempt, storing boat at Goose Bay until next year.
Polar Bound – customised trawler skippered by highly experienced Arctric sailer David Scott Cowper, http://www.cruising.org.uk/about/honorary/DavidCowper.shtml but no blog and no-one seems to know where he is.
There is also a Norwegian boat currently halfway along the North East Passage – http://www.seilmagasinet.no/id/31923 – not sure how they got permission from the Russians. Click on:
http://share.findmespot.com/shared/face/viewspots.jsp?glId=0sh4D6qB4SbUlL8PQTx67P76naNiL79ys for location. If they get through I assume they will overwinter in Alaska and then plan to sue the NWP to get back to Greenland/Norway.
Ice charts available at http://ice-glaces.ec.gc.ca/app/WsvPrdCanQry.cfm?CanID=11081&Lang=eng or if it is clear weather you can get an idea of the ice coverage from the realtime satellite images: http://rapidfire.sci.gsfc.nasa.gov/realtime/ For some reason both Satellites are not imaging Nunuvut, Greenland and the north Atlantic just now. See http://rapidfire.sci.gsfc.nasa.gov/realtime/single.php?T092151850 for an image taken on August 3rd when skies were clear across most of the passage.
” Andrew P (23:43:55) : ”
Let us know when a freighter makes the trip.
I wouldn’t consider the passage “clear” until commercial shipping uses it. Until then, it is a novelty.
Thanks Andrew P
I can’t help but smile at the different attitudes of the Royal Marines to the Carlin Crew per this observation from http://www.arcticmariner.org/#about
“It seems from the photos that two days ago you killed a seal and starting dragging it behind the boat. Then yestyerday you had a big fire and cooked it (the picture’s grainy but it looks like the seal in the foreground and you’re toasting strips on the fire?). IS THIS LEGAL? Are there some special Inuit permissions that you’re abusing or is it simply that youy have a gun and there’s no one else around?”
No CO2 guzzling planes or fuel dumps here!
Hi all-
Unlike most people who do think that AGW is occuring, and I do, I don’t think that stronger hurricanes are necessarily part of our future.
Why?
Hurricanes transfer heat from the tropics to the temperate zones.
If the temperate zones heat as fast as the tropics, the average temperature gradients don’t change much, and hurricane intensity could remain about the same.
This makes growth in hurricane intensity a kind of secondary side effect of AGW.
We should be more concerned about direct effects of AGW such as forest fires, insect infestations, the Arctic ice/albedo feedback, and melting permafrost, especially the potentially runaway positive feedback consequences of these direct effects, IMO. We should be especially concerned with traditional carbon sinks turning into carbon sources and increased production of methane from melting permafrost and methane hydrates.
Absence of increases in intensity and frequency in hurricanes, or only a slight increase, does not refute AGW, IMO.
If the temperate zones heat as fast, or faster, than the tropics, the net increase might be small and not statistically significant, I think.
crosspatch (23:49:32) :
” Andrew P (23:43:55) : ”
Let us know when a freighter makes the trip.
I wouldn’t consider the passage “clear” until commercial shipping uses it. Until then, it is a novelty.
Yes, I agree. According to http://trawlercrawler.net/viewtopic.php?f=33&t=103
there is one commercial ship making an attempt on the North East Passage this year:
http://www.oldsaltblog.com/2009/08/beluga-group-attempts-the-northern-sea-route
I’ve lived in Queens and Long Island my entire life (since 1955). Everybody here thinks they know what hurricane is but they have no idea.
I barely remember Donna in 1960 but I do remember my mother walking me to kindergarten (and holding my hand tightly). NYC schools never closed when I was a kid.
I remember Belle (mid ’70s). No big deal. I drove home from an upstate camping trip in the middle of it. More like a nor’easter.
The worst I remember was Gloria in 1985 and that’s what most people here regard as a hurricane. By the time it got here, it was moving very fast (~30 kt) and sustained winds weren’t too bad. Not even very much rainfall. I even went outside a few times during the height of the storm when I wasn’t raining. A few gusts really got my attention, though. Things got bad around 9:00 AM but by 1:00 PM, the sun was out and it was all over. I think Connecticut got it worse than Long Island. Here, there was very little property damage but there were a ridiculous number of trees and limbs down, which took down power lines everywhere. I was without power for 4 days and I was one of the lucky ones. For weeks and weeks, people were placing piles of branches at the curb; each pile generally about the size of a van.
The UK Marines seem to be little different than US Marines.Guess which parties will be the most sucessful?..
To John A: Take a look at the great Atlantic hurricane of September 14, 1944. I know (read: remember) it doing significant damage in central New Jersey. Also, I believe there was one in 1948.
OK, I’m dating myself…
The ultimate path of the storm depends on the strength and speed of a series of upper-level troughs due to pass through eastern North America in the next three days.
However far Bill passes off the New Jersey coast, he should still kick up some watchable surf. Friday afternoon will find Your Correspondent hanging ten at his favorite saloon on the beach at Long Branch enjoying whatever show the ocean is putting on, not to mention tucking into a pint or three of Sam Adams Summer Brew and some excellent lobster quesedilla.
Skoal!
An excellent account of the Great Hurricane of 1938, which redesigned the coastlines of eastern Long Island and southeastern New England is __The Sudden Sea__ by R.J. Scotti
There’s common myth about hurricanes that often circulates in the media here on Long Island. The NWS calculates the probability of a major hurricane striking Long Island as once every 78 years. Since it has now been 81 years since the 1938 “Long Island Express”, you often hear “we’re due” – mostly from ignorant members of the media (not meteorologists), but especially, dumb-@ur momisugly$$ politicians. As if hurricanes are like earthquakes. The probability is the same as it was in 1939 (climatological variations notwithstanding).
Andrew P (23:43:55) :
One swedish yacht is also trying for the Northeast Passage:
http://www.skinnarmo.com/
They are of course fully PC with respect to AGW etc. They are currently trying to round Cape Chelyuskin on exactly the same date as Nordenskiöld did in 1878, having had a great deal more trouble with ice in the Kara Sea than he had. They haven’t commented on this strange phenomenon.
tty – thanks for that, will add to my list.
Uh oh, here comes Bill the Cat2. Better tell Opus to reign him in…
Just flippin loverly I tell you ! Just think of all those Gigajoules getting unstored from the ocean and headed off back out into space where they came from.
Hurricanes are really nifty things when you think about it; Too bad that humans can’t figure out not to built resorts in the paths of Hurricanes. Remineds me of that famous moveie “Elephant Walk” about some British bozos in india or Somewhere in Asia trying to set up shop right where the elephants were taught by their ancestors, was the best way to get from A to B. So the elephants just kept on walking on their same paths. Seems like some jerk ended up getting squished by one of those neomastodons for his trouble; one of those loverly British Colonial movies.
The Hurricanes aren’t likely to pay much attention to where overly rich idiots want to build their seaside palaces.
My bet is on the hurricanes coming out in front.
We need Bill improves to Cat4 and changes its trajectory a bit to the southwest. Orange trees are thirsty dying. We have also plagues of thrips and Tetranychus urticae; again, thanks to El Niño… No, it’s not possible; we had the same plagues last year under La Niña.
Ursus americanus and other animals have been coming from the mountains down to the city. “Experts” say it is due to El Niño, though I have not seen children shooing bears from the mountains. The last year those “experts” said it was La Niña, and the same, I didn’t see girls shooing bears from the mountains. Perhaps it is Bill?
🙂
Gee Bill, don’t go flushing out the arctic ice or we will be capped and traded to death.
NHC eagerness to name every band of thunderstorms is going to get people – enured to wolf crying – killed.
As someone who lives in Halifax, NS, I’m more interested in the post-120 hour tracking. C’mon, Bill, turn a little more out to sea now! 😎
Bill is now a Cat 4. Could there be another storm developing off Cape Verde? Looks like there is a big swirling cloud mass on the radar…
Not to be an alarmist, but folks in New England and the Canadian maritimes do need to keep an eye on this storm. Here is the track from “The Great New England Hurricane of 1938” very similar to Bill.
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/File:1938_New_England_hurricane_track.png