Updated 9AM PST Friday 8/21
Bill continues to weaken and is looking less organized. It now has 115 mph sustained winds.
Bill is visible in the center of the image below. This satellite image will update every 30 minutes.
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The probability plot for 120 hours out shows Bill likely to make a sharp turn to the north, affecting Nova Scotia, but with no landfall. It’s remnants may affect northern England:
BULLETIN HURRICANE BILL ADVISORY NUMBER 25...CORRECTED NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL032009 1100 AM AST FRI AUG 21 2009 CORRECTED FOR TRACK PARAGRAPH ...LARGE HURRICANE BILL ON A STEADY NORTHWESTWARD TRACK...RAINBANDS ALREADY AFFECTING BERMUDA... A TROPICAL STORM WARNING AND A HURRICANE WATCH ARE IN EFFECT FOR BERMUDA. INTERESTS ALONG THE COAST OF NEW ENGLAND AND IN THE CANADIAN MARITIMES SHOULD MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF BILL. FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA IN THE UNITED STATES...INCLUDING POSSIBLE INLAND WATCHES AND WARNINGS...PLEASE MONITOR PRODUCTS ISSUED BY YOUR LOCAL NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORECAST OFFICE. FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA OUTSIDE OF THE UNITED STATES...PLEASE MONITOR PRODUCTS ISSUED BY YOUR NATIONAL METEOROLOGICAL SERVICE. AT 1100 AM AST...1500 UTC...THE CENTER OF HURRICANE BILL WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 27.6 NORTH...LONGITUDE 66.3 WEST OR ABOUT 335 MILES... 540 KM...SOUTH-SOUTHWEST OF BERMUDA AND ABOUT 755 MILES...1215 KM... SOUTHEAST OF CAPE HATTERAS NORTH CAROLINA. BILL IS MOVING TOWARD THE NORTHWEST NEAR 18 MPH...30 KM/HR. A GRADUAL TURN TO THE NORTH-NORTHWEST AND THEN NORTH IS EXPECTED LATER TODAY AND SATURDAY. ON THE FORECAST TRACK...THE CORE OF HURRICANE BILL IS EXPECTED TO PASS OVER THE OPEN WATERS BETWEEN BERMUDA AND THE EAST COAST OF THE UNITED STATES ON SATURDAY. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 115 MPH...185 KM/HR...WITH HIGHER GUSTS. BILL IS A CATEGORY THREE HURRICANE ON THE SAFFIR-SIMPSON SCALE. SOME FLUCTUATIONS IN INTENSITY ARE LIKELY TODAY AND SATURDAY. BILL REMAINS A LARGE TROPICAL CYCLONE. HURRICANE FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 115 MILES...185 KM...FROM THE CENTER...AND TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 290 MILES...465 KM. RADAR FROM BERMUDA INDICATES THAT SOME RAINBANDS ARE ALREADY AFFECTING BERMUDA. ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 958 MB...28.29 INCHES. BILL IS EXPECTED TO PRODUCE TOTAL RAIN ACCUMULATIONS OF 1 TO 3 INCHES OVER BERMUDA...WITH MAXIMUM AMOUNTS OF 5 INCHES. THE BERMUDA WEATHER SERVICE FORECAST THAT THE STORM TIDE WILL RAISE WATER LEVELS BY AS MUCH AS 3 FEET ABOVE GROUND LEVEL ALONG THE COAST...ALONG WITH LARGE AND DANGEROUS BATTERING WAVES...IN ADVANCE OF BILL. LARGE SWELLS GENERATED BY THIS HURRICANE ARE AFFECTING PUERTO RICO...HISPANIOLA...THE BAHAMAS...AND BERMUDA...AND SHOULD BEGIN AFFECTING MOST OF THE U.S. EAST COAST AND THE ATLANTIC MARITIMES OF CANADA DURING THE NEXT DAY OR TWO. THESE SWELLS WILL LIKELY CAUSE EXTREMELY DANGEROUS SURF AND LIFE-THREATENING RIP CURRENTS. ...SUMMARY OF 1100 AM AST INFORMATION... LOCATION...27.6N 66.3W MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...115 MPH PRESENT MOVEMENT...NORTHWEST OR 325 DEGREES AT 18 MPH MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...958 MB AN INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER AT 200 PM AST FOLLOWED BY THE NEXT COMPLETE ADVISORY AT 500 PM AST.
TD Ana is a good example of more named storms due to better observational tools. Ana adds to this year’s count…but like those super small sunspot specks,100 years no one would notice…
REPLY: Well stated – Anthony
Well put, Kip. 40 years ago that storm is a rain squall moving through the Atlantic/Caribbean. With more observational data and a Saffir-Simpson scale to quantify TD, TS, Hurricane it is now named for the brief period of time in which it was a TS.
How does a TD get alarmed into a Cat 5 threat?
MediaMetrics.
Just flash the teleprompter to have them say whatever you want them to.
If The NHC would have monitored the ANA storm as a wave they might have come up with a better forecast than they have now. It finally looks to be developing into a possible storm with a track that will take it south of Hispania. I don’t have access to the water temps in that area but it should organize and then get pulled north by a slow moving low pressure area that is churning just off of the southeast of the Florida peninsula. Bad news for Cuba but then again, is there any good news for Cuba?
A “Weather Channel” we-need-something-to-talk-about storm:
This from their web page:
“ATLANTIC
Tropical Storm Claudette made landfall as a 50 mile per hour tropical storm around 12:10 a.m. Central time near the east end of Santa Rosa Island, Florida, just to the southeast of Fort Walton Beach.
As of 1 a.m. Monday morning (Central time), a very small Tropical Storm Claudette still with some 50 mph winds was located just inland near Fort Walton Beach, Florida.
Tropical storm warnings remain in effect from the Alabama/Florida border eastward to the Aucilla River, Florida.”
—
50 mph winds are more than a thunderstorm, but this tempest in a teapot is more headline than rainstorm.
Yes, TS#3 is a hoax.
gtrip (23:57:29) :
>If The NHC would have monitored the ANA storm as a wave they might have come up with a better forecast than they have now.
They do, and I’m sure they did. However, they don’t label them as future tropical storm Ana or even TD #xx. From today’s discussion, the next-in-line areas are:
You can get to that from http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/ , click on Tropical Weather Discussion above the sections on each significant storm. If you look at the archives, I’m sure you can find the mention about the wave that became Ana.
Several of the Ana discussions commented on the expose center of the storm with all the convection displaced to the northeast, an indication of the shear that caused the NHC to stop calling it a TD for a day or two.
I also have an issue with:
gtrip (20:37:11) :
> Neither Ana nor Claudette have shown any cyclonic signatures or low pressure centers that one would consider when classifying (naming) a tropical storm.
Claudette looks pretty lame, but the synoptic maps I see show pressure contours and a low. Winds are 50 mph, well above the depression/storm of 35 mph. If it’s not a tropical storm, what is it? TS that form in the Gulf don’t have to start from a wave so they can start out as a disorganized mess before developing a classic hurricane form.
The NHC is showing more restraint IMHO with naming storms this year. A few years ago the folks at Colorado State were wondering if they’d have to start forecasting more storms due to some marginal sub-tropical storms getting names.
This year there was a July nor’easter that had such a contracted wind field that when it brushed by Massachusetts there was no impact in Concord NH and I was surprised to see it was a major story Boston news. A lot of mets thought it should have been labeled a TS. See http://www.weathernewengland.com/tim-kelley/walks-like-a-duck-tropical-storm-or-not/1004027.html
RACookPE1978 (01:16:43) :
> 50 mph winds are more than a thunderstorm, but this tempest in a teapot is more headline than rainstorm.
Not all 50 mph storms are just equivalent to a strong thunderstorm. Claudette at least didn’t have time to gather much moisture, though I’m concerned about that band of rain going northe through Florida and Alabama. One story suggests
Claudette is also moving, which is very important.
Tropical storm Fay had more time to get organized, more moisture, and was slower. Its peak winds were only 70 mph (while it strengthed over land!), but it caused $560 million in damage and brought over 25″ of rain (63 cm) and killed 26 people, 11 in the USA.
Keep in mind that wind damage only affects areas near the coast, a much bigger area can be devastated by floods. I was in Pittsburgh PA while the remnants of Agnes dumped on Scranton and vicinity (including us).
Wind damage makes the best (most exciting) TV coverage, but storm surge and flooding are the real destroyers.
Oh – I forgot this link to TS Fay – http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Tropical_Storm_Fay_(2008)
In years past, the NHC would not have named Claudette. The NHC is better than they were, so I have no problem naming a storm even when it reaches that criteria just for one hour. However, people seem to judge how active a year is based on how many names are used. Thanks to the hype weather machine known as the Weather Channel, this is the case. A tropical storm or subtropical storm can form quickly and die quickly. The number of names used is not a fair metric on how active the Atlantic hurricane season is. The number of hurricanes that form is a better metric.
Hurricane Bill, now.
Wade (06:29:08) :
I don’t see where the argument is with Claudette being named. It had a well defined low level center that lasted well over 24hrs and was verified via aircraft recon and radar. If it was over the eastern Atlantic, it may not have been named because we don’t have those resources out there. Also, as long as I’ve been following them, the NHC is generally more likely to name a system near land than not. Some of that is CYA but we’ve seen examples of storms near the coast that ramp up quickly and unexpectedly. Humberto of 2007 being the most recent example.
I would agree that the number of named storms is not a great method to show activity. There is just too much subjectivity in naming them. Number of hurricanes that form is better. I believe ACE is the best.
The 12Z GFS from yesterday showed Bill veering NW then into the open Atlantic. Looks like the SE will dodge a bullet here. Ana, on the other hand, has a better chance to affect the US.
Now as far as naming cyclones goes, Ana is the one that could be argued about. It seemed to lose its LLC yesterday. The NHC is being very conservative in keeping it as a depression. That said, one thing I’ll credit them for is they are usually open about their decisions as shown in their latest discussion:
http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/refresh/MIATCDAT2+shtml/171500.shtml
> Neither Ana nor Claudette have shown any cyclonic signatures or low pressure centers that one would consider when classifying (naming) a tropical storm.
Ana is cyclonic, but only weakly so. The radar signature is currently up on my website.
Before going down through the drain they take that spiral shape…:-)
Off topic I know, but… has anyone else had problems viewing the StormPulse website? It worked fine on my XP and Vista computers, but I can’t get it to display on this Windows 7 computer at work…
If it’s a Windows 7 problem then it’s the first I’ve seen.
Global warming causes droughts. Global warming causes more tropical storms which brings more rain to the drought stricken areas. hmmm
These ice charts on the Arctic have to be incorrect….we are going to be ice free this year. Please get them adjusted asap!!!!!
http://www.ijis.iarc.uaf.edu/en/home/seaice_extent.htm
http://arctic-roos.org/observations/satellite-data/sea-ice/ice-area-and-extent-in-arctic
Where is Hansen when you need him?
NHC has stopped issuing advisories on Ana (as well as Claudette, but that isn’t surprising). Bill is the only one left out there for now.
Steve J (14:23:46) :
“NHC has stopped issuing advisories on Ana (as well as Claudette, but that isn’t surprising). Bill is the only one left out there for now.”
From my reading of the situation, Bill will devastate the US economy and pull down the rest of the first world with it if it gets voted through!
Ana and Claudette: we hardly knew ye!
ABC’s morning show tried in vain to feature their guy struggling to stand against Claudette’s gale force winds, but none would oblige on camera. They also touted the “slow start to the season, then ‘boom’…3 named storms just like that”.
Looks like Bill was the only real “storm” worth mentioning….
Call me cynical, but I think there are people out there who would love for a cane like Bill to mimic Katrina to become another poster-child for AGW fear-mongering (maybe hitting NYC or something).
When was the last time New York was hit by a hurricane?
Bill the Cat 2
Interesting … and hilarious.