Updated 9AM PST Friday 8/21
Bill continues to weaken and is looking less organized. It now has 115 mph sustained winds.
Bill is visible in the center of the image below. This satellite image will update every 30 minutes.
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The probability plot for 120 hours out shows Bill likely to make a sharp turn to the north, affecting Nova Scotia, but with no landfall. It’s remnants may affect northern England:
BULLETIN HURRICANE BILL ADVISORY NUMBER 25...CORRECTED NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL032009 1100 AM AST FRI AUG 21 2009 CORRECTED FOR TRACK PARAGRAPH ...LARGE HURRICANE BILL ON A STEADY NORTHWESTWARD TRACK...RAINBANDS ALREADY AFFECTING BERMUDA... A TROPICAL STORM WARNING AND A HURRICANE WATCH ARE IN EFFECT FOR BERMUDA. INTERESTS ALONG THE COAST OF NEW ENGLAND AND IN THE CANADIAN MARITIMES SHOULD MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF BILL. FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA IN THE UNITED STATES...INCLUDING POSSIBLE INLAND WATCHES AND WARNINGS...PLEASE MONITOR PRODUCTS ISSUED BY YOUR LOCAL NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORECAST OFFICE. FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA OUTSIDE OF THE UNITED STATES...PLEASE MONITOR PRODUCTS ISSUED BY YOUR NATIONAL METEOROLOGICAL SERVICE. AT 1100 AM AST...1500 UTC...THE CENTER OF HURRICANE BILL WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 27.6 NORTH...LONGITUDE 66.3 WEST OR ABOUT 335 MILES... 540 KM...SOUTH-SOUTHWEST OF BERMUDA AND ABOUT 755 MILES...1215 KM... SOUTHEAST OF CAPE HATTERAS NORTH CAROLINA. BILL IS MOVING TOWARD THE NORTHWEST NEAR 18 MPH...30 KM/HR. A GRADUAL TURN TO THE NORTH-NORTHWEST AND THEN NORTH IS EXPECTED LATER TODAY AND SATURDAY. ON THE FORECAST TRACK...THE CORE OF HURRICANE BILL IS EXPECTED TO PASS OVER THE OPEN WATERS BETWEEN BERMUDA AND THE EAST COAST OF THE UNITED STATES ON SATURDAY. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 115 MPH...185 KM/HR...WITH HIGHER GUSTS. BILL IS A CATEGORY THREE HURRICANE ON THE SAFFIR-SIMPSON SCALE. SOME FLUCTUATIONS IN INTENSITY ARE LIKELY TODAY AND SATURDAY. BILL REMAINS A LARGE TROPICAL CYCLONE. HURRICANE FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 115 MILES...185 KM...FROM THE CENTER...AND TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 290 MILES...465 KM. RADAR FROM BERMUDA INDICATES THAT SOME RAINBANDS ARE ALREADY AFFECTING BERMUDA. ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 958 MB...28.29 INCHES. BILL IS EXPECTED TO PRODUCE TOTAL RAIN ACCUMULATIONS OF 1 TO 3 INCHES OVER BERMUDA...WITH MAXIMUM AMOUNTS OF 5 INCHES. THE BERMUDA WEATHER SERVICE FORECAST THAT THE STORM TIDE WILL RAISE WATER LEVELS BY AS MUCH AS 3 FEET ABOVE GROUND LEVEL ALONG THE COAST...ALONG WITH LARGE AND DANGEROUS BATTERING WAVES...IN ADVANCE OF BILL. LARGE SWELLS GENERATED BY THIS HURRICANE ARE AFFECTING PUERTO RICO...HISPANIOLA...THE BAHAMAS...AND BERMUDA...AND SHOULD BEGIN AFFECTING MOST OF THE U.S. EAST COAST AND THE ATLANTIC MARITIMES OF CANADA DURING THE NEXT DAY OR TWO. THESE SWELLS WILL LIKELY CAUSE EXTREMELY DANGEROUS SURF AND LIFE-THREATENING RIP CURRENTS. ...SUMMARY OF 1100 AM AST INFORMATION... LOCATION...27.6N 66.3W MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...115 MPH PRESENT MOVEMENT...NORTHWEST OR 325 DEGREES AT 18 MPH MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...958 MB AN INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER AT 200 PM AST FOLLOWED BY THE NEXT COMPLETE ADVISORY AT 500 PM AST.
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Jimmy Haigh (23:46:29) :
But Jimmy, there is an officially (PETA no less) approved way to capture bugs:
https://www.petacatalog.org/prodinfo.asp?number=HP220
Jack Simmons (00:21:06) :
“… there is an officially (PETA no less) approved way to capture bugs”.
Hmmm. Not sure about this for butterflies though. It looks as though it would damage their hurricane-causing wings.
Hey – maybe it’s the other way round? Maybe ‘global warming ‘ (I don’t buy it myself) was caused by hurricanes caused by butterflies flying? I can see the headlines in the MSM: “AGW cuased by butterflies”.
I just know those warmist BBC hacks are salivating in anticipation…
Mike McMillan (16:45:29) :
Clive (15:54:59) :
Aha! “The Watt Effect” ☺ ☺ ☺
Reply: Watts
What?
Whats on first, whose on second….
By using Mannian methods and climate models I can say that we´ll have over 300 storms by the end of the year,
The best site I know to watch hurricanes is: http://www.stormpulse.com/
Great graphics. You can overlay Atlantic forecast model tracks, U.S. radar and clouds. They are currently showing the projected storm track for Anna. Bill is there but no track yet. You can scroll to see clouds anywhere in the world.
More on stormpulse… You can also see the forecast track for Bill as well as TD4 by clicking on the active storm list. Pacific tracks are also available.
RACookPE1978 (20:13:18) : “even the storms over FL this afternoon had “tropical rotations” ..”
I guess they did (you could see it on local radar).
Power Grab (20:56:17) : “Why do they raise all that ruckus about piddly little systems that are little more than a brisk Oklahoma breeze? (”Where the wind comes sweepin’ down the plain”)”
Cause these piddly little systems can turn into devastating monsters very quickly.
I’ll put my money on them spinning North and away from the usual LZ’s. Perhaps doing the twist right into Nova Scotia?
I hope I am correct… (Well, maybe not the Nova Scotia bit)
Tom in Florida (05:14:22) :
Cause these piddly little systems can turn into devastating monsters very quickly.
—-
Maybe they “can” but for the past 2-1/2 seasons have not. Is it a coincidence that the 2007 and 2008 seasons were quiet–just as the sun has been quiet? The sun is still quiet.
I saw an impressive X-class flare on spaceweather.com in 2005 not long before Katrina got big. There is nothing like that happening now.
OTOH–there was an “unexpected” aurora mentioned on spaceweather.com on 8-14-09. The usual indicators were quiet before it happened. Perhaps that was the influx of power needed to zap up some storm systems.
This is such an interesting solar cycle, isn’t it? If we will, we can probably learn quite a bit about the influence of space weather on our weather. Heh–I’m beginning to think the sun is only the dashboard indicator light, reflecting the influence of the power that comes this way from elsewhere in the cosmos.
Is it me, or has one of them faded away?
Grumbler (02:51:51) :
Mike McMillan (16:45:29) :
Clive (15:54:59) :
Aha! “The Watt Effect” ☺ ☺ ☺
Reply: Watts
What?
Whats on first, whose on second….
Who’s on second!
For a little entertainment, track a storm by grabbing a copy of the 5 day cone about three times a day for the duration of the storm. Then after the storm is over, ask yourself this question. If we can predict the climate in 100 years, we should be able to predict a storm track, never mind the intensity, fairly accurately. How did we do? Cycle through the images of the 5 day cone in order and track the changes.
For a little more fun. Draw a 5 day cone all by yourself. How did you do? Better then the guys spending m/billions?
Looks like Claudette will be named today and make landfall near Panama City, FL tonight. I’m sure the veterans down there aren’t concerned at all. Just have to aim a little further left of the flag with that 6-iron.
Claudette should also dissipate rapidly. Plenty of rain for the SE, though.
Power Grab (06:09:35) : “Maybe they “can” but for the past 2-1/2 seasons have not. Is it a coincidence that the 2007 and 2008 seasons were quiet–just as the sun has been quiet? ”
You might want to ask those in Haiti and the Dominican Republic how they feel about your “quiet” 2-1/2 seasons. Perhaps you have forgotten or are just terribly US-centric.
“Tropical depression four” was named Claudette about an hour ago…
gtrip (22:24:17) :
Paul Coppin (11:46:10) :
Right! And this goes to the very heart of what some of us have been saying on other threads herein. Years ago #4 probably wouldn’t have been “seen” or counted as it will be over land and dissipating in less than 24 hrs from any significant formation. Proof of this is the “No name” storm that hit Tampa area inn the mid nineties. While some of us here on the west coast of FL saw “something” out there yesterday that looked like enough mass and the start of circulation, the NHC/NOAA computers and experts did not. While a lot of people hang on every word the NHC experts say about storms ONCE THEY form, most of us fully realize their track predicting skills include VERY WIDE margins of error and their formation and strength predicting abilities are very weak. Both Charlie in 2004 and Katrina a year later are excellent examples of that fact. That is why if you live along the coast if your smart your self sufficient.
AlanG (04:13:44) :
Thanks. That is a VERY interesting and well done website.
Tropical DISTURBANCE Ana was downgraded. That (Ana) was the biggest reach to “name” a storm I have ever seen. This is what is wrong when agencies make forecasts; they do whatever they can to make their forecasts look correct.
” gtrip (15:39:26) :
Tropical DISTURBANCE Ana was downgraded. That (Ana) was the biggest reach to “name” a storm I have ever seen. This is what is wrong when agencies make forecasts; they do whatever they can to make their forecasts look correct.”
It’s Tropical Depression Ana, just to be clear, and I don’t think it was a reach. The NHC never forecasted it to develop into a hurricane and they have a tendency to be conservative when they name storms. Here’s what they said when making the decision:
DATA FROM A NOAA G-IV MISSION…NOAA BUOY 41041…AND A RECENTLY-RECEIVED ASCAT PASS INDICATES THAT THE CIRCULATION IS WELL-DEFINED.
Using three separate pieces of information, they decided to name it tropical storm Ana. There’s a lot of shadiness and agenda-pushing within the govt, but I’m not sure this was a classic example of such a conspiracy. Plus, they have a long way to go for this hurricane season to matter at all.
As a Floridian I’ve been envious of all the record cold summer reports. The tropical cloud cover might cool things down a bit, though the humidity will be unbearable. We could use a little more rain, just hope we don’t get another loitering Fay.
Steve J (17:13:33)
Neither Ana nor Claudette have shown any cyclonic signatures or low pressure centers that one would consider when classifying (naming) a tropical storm. In my book, Bill should be Ana, Ana should be just another wave, and Claudette TD#3 or 2. Unless of course, we can bore some sediment samples and reclassify Claudette as a Cat 4 or 5 Hurricane!!!
And par for the course, as soon I say Ana is nothing, it starts to show some signs of actually becoming a TD. NOAA’s last update said: VERY FEW OF THE DYNAMICAL MODELS SHOW ANY RE-STRENGTHENING.
Bill is the only one with any “oomph” and that storm doesn’t look like it will be much of a threat to land. It is currently forecast to turn out to sea before making landfall.
Tom in Florida (11:23:43) :
You might want to ask those in Haiti and the Dominican Republic how they feel about your “quiet” 2-1/2 seasons. Perhaps you have forgotten or are just terribly US-centric.
Maybe I’m just tornado-centric. How many F5s have you lived to tell about?