Updated 9AM PST Friday 8/21
Bill continues to weaken and is looking less organized. It now has 115 mph sustained winds.
Bill is visible in the center of the image below. This satellite image will update every 30 minutes.
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The probability plot for 120 hours out shows Bill likely to make a sharp turn to the north, affecting Nova Scotia, but with no landfall. It’s remnants may affect northern England:
BULLETIN HURRICANE BILL ADVISORY NUMBER 25...CORRECTED NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL032009 1100 AM AST FRI AUG 21 2009 CORRECTED FOR TRACK PARAGRAPH ...LARGE HURRICANE BILL ON A STEADY NORTHWESTWARD TRACK...RAINBANDS ALREADY AFFECTING BERMUDA... A TROPICAL STORM WARNING AND A HURRICANE WATCH ARE IN EFFECT FOR BERMUDA. INTERESTS ALONG THE COAST OF NEW ENGLAND AND IN THE CANADIAN MARITIMES SHOULD MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF BILL. FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA IN THE UNITED STATES...INCLUDING POSSIBLE INLAND WATCHES AND WARNINGS...PLEASE MONITOR PRODUCTS ISSUED BY YOUR LOCAL NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORECAST OFFICE. FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA OUTSIDE OF THE UNITED STATES...PLEASE MONITOR PRODUCTS ISSUED BY YOUR NATIONAL METEOROLOGICAL SERVICE. AT 1100 AM AST...1500 UTC...THE CENTER OF HURRICANE BILL WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 27.6 NORTH...LONGITUDE 66.3 WEST OR ABOUT 335 MILES... 540 KM...SOUTH-SOUTHWEST OF BERMUDA AND ABOUT 755 MILES...1215 KM... SOUTHEAST OF CAPE HATTERAS NORTH CAROLINA. BILL IS MOVING TOWARD THE NORTHWEST NEAR 18 MPH...30 KM/HR. A GRADUAL TURN TO THE NORTH-NORTHWEST AND THEN NORTH IS EXPECTED LATER TODAY AND SATURDAY. ON THE FORECAST TRACK...THE CORE OF HURRICANE BILL IS EXPECTED TO PASS OVER THE OPEN WATERS BETWEEN BERMUDA AND THE EAST COAST OF THE UNITED STATES ON SATURDAY. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 115 MPH...185 KM/HR...WITH HIGHER GUSTS. BILL IS A CATEGORY THREE HURRICANE ON THE SAFFIR-SIMPSON SCALE. SOME FLUCTUATIONS IN INTENSITY ARE LIKELY TODAY AND SATURDAY. BILL REMAINS A LARGE TROPICAL CYCLONE. HURRICANE FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 115 MILES...185 KM...FROM THE CENTER...AND TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 290 MILES...465 KM. RADAR FROM BERMUDA INDICATES THAT SOME RAINBANDS ARE ALREADY AFFECTING BERMUDA. ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 958 MB...28.29 INCHES. BILL IS EXPECTED TO PRODUCE TOTAL RAIN ACCUMULATIONS OF 1 TO 3 INCHES OVER BERMUDA...WITH MAXIMUM AMOUNTS OF 5 INCHES. THE BERMUDA WEATHER SERVICE FORECAST THAT THE STORM TIDE WILL RAISE WATER LEVELS BY AS MUCH AS 3 FEET ABOVE GROUND LEVEL ALONG THE COAST...ALONG WITH LARGE AND DANGEROUS BATTERING WAVES...IN ADVANCE OF BILL. LARGE SWELLS GENERATED BY THIS HURRICANE ARE AFFECTING PUERTO RICO...HISPANIOLA...THE BAHAMAS...AND BERMUDA...AND SHOULD BEGIN AFFECTING MOST OF THE U.S. EAST COAST AND THE ATLANTIC MARITIMES OF CANADA DURING THE NEXT DAY OR TWO. THESE SWELLS WILL LIKELY CAUSE EXTREMELY DANGEROUS SURF AND LIFE-THREATENING RIP CURRENTS. ...SUMMARY OF 1100 AM AST INFORMATION... LOCATION...27.6N 66.3W MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...115 MPH PRESENT MOVEMENT...NORTHWEST OR 325 DEGREES AT 18 MPH MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...958 MB AN INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER AT 200 PM AST FOLLOWED BY THE NEXT COMPLETE ADVISORY AT 500 PM AST.
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Thank You, oh churner of quiet waters.
Hey, should I leave the state this weekend? The guy on the TV sure was all hot and bothered about his first “storm” of the season.
One MPH away from poof. Isn’t it great that we can measure with such precision things we cannot hardly even see?
Yet the temperature data from real live thermometers goes missing.
Need something to change the focus from Obamacare, how obvious is this.
Aha! “The Watt Effect” ☺ ☺ ☺
Reply: Watts
Come on, now. It’s August and we’re over two months into the season. Unfortunately, hurricanes aren’t like sunspots — they don’t totally disappear.
What Watts, where Watt was wrong? Weird, Why?
It’s a sign!
Two named storms in twelve hours!
The end times are upon us! We are to be punished for ignoring that Great Prophet Gore!
{whispering in the background} What?
{more whispering} Oh, okay.
Never mind – it’s just weather.
Clive (15:54:59) :
Aha! “The Watt Effect” ☺ ☺ ☺
Reply: Watts
What?
The man’s name is WATTS.
Back to the hurricanes, please. Rather sharp swing to the north, I think, is called for.
It´s somebody taking a shower bath down there. Just two tropical showers.
“Hurricanes united will never be defeated!!” Raise red signals!!
As long as we don’t talk about the economy, we should be safe.
Oops…
(aren’t we supposed to have tropical storms this time of year?)
Anthony– You have the ability to stir the pot in the opposite direction and defuse this bad girl and boy.
This is one heck of a late starter…anyone have some data from before the AMO shift?
# 2008: May 31
# 2007: May 9
# 2006: June 10
# 2005: June 8
# 2004: July 31
# 2003: April 20
# 2002: July 9
# 2001: June 4
# 2000: August 3
# 1999: June 11
# 1998: July 26
# 1997: June 30
# 1996: June 19
# 1995: June 2
I Warned you. I Begged you.
But, would you listen?
NOOooo.
Oh, and for those who want to follow the evolution of this hurricane season there is one pretty good website-which happens to be run by Roy Spencer-here:
http://www.weatherstreet.com/hurricane/2009/Hurricane-Atlantic-2009.htm
The Weather Channel this afternoon was just giddy about these two storms. Excited, hyper, exuberant, …. Thrilled even! Caught the two anouncers even dropping back into the “this is the most severe …” language that “will have damaging winds” terms they are used to needing for real hurricanes.
even the storms over FL this afternoon had “tropical rotations” ..
Latest spaghetti models show:
-Ana heading to FL and the Gulf but possibly dissipating as it hits land masses along the way
-Bill curving north and likely spinning away from any North American landfall
Rambly musings….
1) Mike McMillan … The Watt Effect? Just a play on “The Hansen Effect.” (Search here.) Just funnin’ ☺
2) Those winds that are making the wx channel dudes all giddy…that’s just a calm day here in southern Alberta. (The wind stopped once and we all fell over. ☺) We actually call our local hockey team, the Hurricanes.
3) AGW is raging so badly here in Western Canada, that it froze in some places early this morning … August 15!! Ugh! Jasper, Alberta’s frost-free period this summer was 42 days. Woohoo! ☺
Cheers!
Clive
A site as informative, in it’s own way, as WUWT:
http://spaghettimodels.com/
The guy does it as a public service, for free. Best Hurricane site.
Where’s the edit button?
infirmative = informative
/sigh
I find it hard to get excited about these two storms (or most storms of the past 4 years, for that matter) when their winds are just 30-40 mph. Heck…where I live the max wind speed for every month this year has never been less than 44. In fact, so far this month, the max wind speed has been 62.
Why do they raise all that ruckus about piddly little systems that are little more than a brisk Oklahoma breeze? (“Where the wind comes sweepin’ down the plain”)
Ana is not a tropical storm. Bill at least shows some circulation. Strange reading the forecast discussions, they seem to be more like wishes.
One the other hand, nice little hurricane in the Pacific. Over there NOAA keeps predicting it to fall apart and/or move N of HI islands. Has moved due west lately and still holding together more so now than in the past few days. Predicted to diminish as it passes over cooler waters though we have just been told that we have record warn oceans!!!
The development a little southwest of Tampa should be of more concern for the fellows at NOAA. May well become another Opal for the panhandle.
Is the performance of those hyper weathermen on TV bonus related?
Why don’t they just catch all the butterflies in the world and put them in a sealed room where they can flap their wings all they want without causing all these hurricanes?
Oh. I know. The greens wouldn’t even let us do that…