Another entry from the weather is not climate department, this time courtesy of Tom Skilling, WGN-TV meteorologist.
Chicago has its coolest July 8 in 118 years
- By Tom Skilling
- July 9, 2009
For the 12th time this meteorological summer (since June 1), daytime highs failed to reach 70 degrees Wednesday. Only one other year in the past half century has hosted so many sub-70-degree days up to this point in a summer season — 1969, when 14 such days occurred.
Wednesday’s paltry 65-degree high at O’Hare International Airport (an early-May-level temperature and a reading 18 degrees below normal) was also the city’s coolest July 8 high in 118 years — since a 61-degree high on the date in 1891.
Rains on Wednesday were bothersome but generally light in the city, where 0.20 inches fell at Midway Airport. Heavier rains were recorded well west and southwest of Chicago, including an unofficial report of 0.93 inches at DeKalb and 0.60 inches in Pontiac.
Sunshine re-emerges Thursday and should boost temperatures back into the 80s. Southeast winds off Lake Michigan will limit shoreline highs to the mid-and-upper 70s. An isolated thunderstorm may bubble to life in far western sections of the area late in the day
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vibenna (19:56:16) : Conversely, it’s interesting to observe how arctic sea ice loss has accelerated in the last two months.
You mean like it does every single year at this time? It’s dead center of the pack and absolutely normal. This after all the hand wringing over it being “first year ice” (oh no!).
http://www.ijis.iarc.uaf.edu/seaice/extent/AMSRE_Sea_Ice_Extent.png
So I guess it’s interesting if you like watching things sitting on the exact top of the bell curve…
I suppose there are some interesting things about arctic ice loss being driven by water rather than air, so we have this really cold air over Canada and down to Chicago, but that doesn’t slow the ice melt because the water temp is what does that. I suppose it’s an interesting existence proof of the low relevance of air temp to arctic ice cycling…
E.M.Smith (23:54:25) : I suppose it’s an interesting existence proof of the low relevance of air temp to arctic ice cycling…
Which makes me wonder even more why GIStemp uses arctic ice to proxy up some fake thermometers where their are non based on ice extent… Hmmm… Using artice ice to proxy temperatures is an interesting fudge…
ohioholic (22:21:18) :
Gregory Ryskin’s paper on the ocean flipping the magnetic fields?
The oceans are weakly conducting and their magnetic effect has been known for a century. It is, however, much too small to account for the major secular changes. For example, the Earth’s dipole moment has been decreasing 5%/century for quite some time. This is unlikely to be caused by oceans, that have stayed rather the same over a long time.
So then here are the ……
IPCC definitions of probability of occurrence
Virtually certain: more than 99%
Extremely likely: more than 95%
Very likely: more than 90%
Likely: more than 66%
More likely than not: more than 50%
Very unlikely: less than 10%
Extremely unlikely: less than 5%
(source BBC News – UK)
E.M. Smith: you see it as the exact centre of the Bell curve. I see as the fourth equal lowest seasonal value since 1978. Also, the lowest five seasonal values are all in the last five years. See this link at cyrosphere today for a longer history with more perspective:
http://arctic.atmos.uiuc.edu/cryosphere/IMAGES/current.anom.jpg
I blame all the volcanos.
@Leif Svalgaard
Almost all neutron monitors [incl. Oulu] have begun to trend down. This is to be expected as the downturn should come 6-12 months after solar minimum which we passed sometime last autumn, so everything makes sense. The latest spate of spots will not have any effect for some time.
Really? I’ve just downloaded the neutron counts from November 1978 to date and they’re just beginning a very slight fall but are still much higher than the entire record over that time. The “fall” is very much within the normal variation of the neutron counts and means nothing.
Proof
Its been fairly cool here in Idaho too. We had a few hot days, but mostly I bet we are running along temps seen here about 1980’s .. So Id say rather than being abnormally cool, were back to normal:)
Nites are still fairly cool, and my apple tree and grapes are ahead of season, maybe the trees know something we dont. Looks like they will be ripe before usual after a late bloom.
Leif Svalgaard (20:57:03) :
But it is not at all certain that the solar cycle has anything to do with the climate beyond a [hardly measurable against the natural background noise] 0.07C degree solar cycle variation.
The on average 0.07C rise and fall of SST in response to the solar cycle is the transient response of the near surface waters. What about the longer term thermal expansion of the oceans as measured by satellite altimetry? An awful lot of heat energy has to get stored over multi-decadal periods in the oceans deeper down towards the thermocline to do that. Logic demands it. Observation of ocean heat content confirms it.
The variation between cycles isn’t just max amplitude, it’s also length of intervening minima and slope of rise and fall in TSI. This varies much more than the transient surface response indicates. You agreed with me on this on the last ‘solar signal in temperature data’ thread, but now you seem to have forgotten or disregarded it again.
Flanagan (23:24:43) :
Don’t forget the US is one of the few regions in the world having rightnow slightly lower-than-normal temperatures.
I think quite a few aussies and new zealanders might disagree. There again maybe not. They would say they haven’t been having [b]slightly[/b] lower-than-normal temperatures, they’ve been having [b]much[/b] lower-than-normal temperatures.
Konrad (22:11:09) :
we would like to ask that Mr. Sun surrender his passport and remain contactable should we need further assistance with our inquiries. 🙂
Leif Svalgaard (22:52:16) :
As his representative, I’m fully authorized to deny any misdeeds he might be accused of.
Your client appears to be a very popular party animal based upon the number of paternity suits you are defending in open forum at the moment.
Would your client be willing to provide a DNA sample so that we can establish whether he is in fact the father of poor little orphan Joe Doe Climate?
Have a great weekend!
PS
My girlfriend is heading off to the beach this weekend…
She will be wearing a bikini and hopes to attract the attention of your client…
I look forward to reading more hot gossip next week… thank you guys.
“tallbloke (01:56:09) :
Flanagan (23:24:43) :
Don’t forget the US is one of the few regions in the world having rightnow slightly lower-than-normal temperatures.
I think quite a few aussies and new zealanders might disagree. There again maybe not. They would say they haven’t been having [b]slightly[/b] lower-than-normal temperatures, they’ve been having [b]much[/b] lower-than-normal temperatures.”
I do disagree, although I am British and a New Zealander living in Australia now as a permanent resident.
May was, 0.08c above the long term agverage (That is the BoM long term average, the 1960 – 1991 global average). We had early snows in May and June, many lows in June, and now in July, 4-6c below average so far (I really dislike quoting real temps with average temps, it’s not a valid comparison IMO).
Don’t forget this is winter time here.
Temperatures were well below average during June, the National Institute of Water and Atmospheric Research (Niwa) climate summary says.
Extremely low temperatures were recorded in the Waikato, Taumarunui, Taupo, southern Hawke’s Bay, Central Otago, the Kaikoura Coast, and some alpine areas of the South Island.
All other areas experienced below average temperatures and the national average temperature of 7.5degC was 0.7degC below the long-term average for June.
http://www.nzherald.co.nz/nz/news/article.cfm?c_id=1&objectid=10582082
Weather isn’t climate but it sure is oddly cold here in Chicago. I mentioned it in my last comment on another thread. H/T – blind squirrel.
…temperature at Hamburg/Germany dropped to 55°F at 12:00 LTC. Probably becaus a nearby nuclear powerplant was shut off due to a transformer failure 😉
Temps in the 60s? I’m jealous!
Here in North Germany we’ve had highs in the 50s only.
This morning it felt like October.
I don’t recall having such cool weather in July since being here.
A little bit offtopic, but finally the RSS MSU global temperature anomaly for June 2009 is available now.
RSS June 2009 value is 0.075 deg.C above normal, with the highest anomaly in the Tropics and the polar regions. Both southern and northern hemisphere values (excluding the tropics but including polar regions) were slightly below normal, suggesting a negative anomaly of about -0.2°c for mid-latitudes on both hemispheres.
Global 0.075
Tropics 0.228 (20N-20S)
N_hem -0.016 (20-82.5N)
S_hem -0.001 (20-70S)
Arctic 0.206 (60-82.5N)
Antarctic 0.494 (60-70S)
Altough the RSS value is significantly higher than UAH, it confirms the small decrease in global temperatures compared to May.
RSS monthly data is available here.
I’ve just realized that there is a significant discrepancy between UAH and RSS in the case of the Tropics:
June 2009 value according to UAH is -0.003°c
June 2009 value according to RSS is 0.228°c
What could be the reason for this relatively large difference between the two satellite records in one particular region, while both SH and NH values are identical? Any opinion?
http://www.scrippsnews.com/node/44463
Deroy Murdoch’s column reinforces this post !!
Lubos Motl
Good post. Another take on this is that most things in Nature occur in cycles . To recognize long term cycle changes among short term events or signals is true wisdom. We are seeing the early signs of a cooler cycle among the tail end of the warm cycle . Only a fool will say that when there is a nip in the air and the leaves start changing colour early that summer[or global warming] will last indefinitely.
E.M.Smith (23:38:35) :
Thanks for the posting and the link.
Interesting information.
Konrad (22:11:09) :
Leif Svalgaard (22:52:16) :
Konrad, Leif,
very funny, indeed.
Lubos Motl (23:50:01) :
Thank for your posting.
I think you are correct with your climate weather assessment.
Why is it when it hot it ‘s global warming of course but if it cool ,as it has been in the mid west and the north east this summer , NOT A WORD IS SAID.I live in the northern foothills of North Carolina and we have had a few days in the low 90’s ,mostly low to mid 80’s,but the humidity we normally see has’t been here .It’s more like spring or fall than summer.
Flanagan (23:24:43) :
Don’t forget the US is one of the few regions in the world having
rightnow slightly lower-than-normal temperatures.
http://www.climat-evolution.com/article-33431441.html
Western Europe, Siberia, India, China, Alaska, etc. had quite large ….
—-
whaddabout Western Europe?
Dec to Feb (DJF) – did belong to the three coldest of the last 30 years.
Locally we had quite some new record lows.
March was 52nd warmest out of 110 .
April was indeed, warm. 2nd out of 110
May was more to average.
June was rather old.
July looks alike he will come wet, cold, wet,cold.