WUWT readers may recall seeing this article last week:
Arctic temperature is still not above 0°C – the latest date in fifty years of record keeping
In that article, Joe D’Aleo presented a graph from the Danish Meteorological Institute (DMI) that showed that the area above 80 degrees north had still not climbed above freezing point of fresh water. Granted sea water doesn’t freeze until around -4°C, but that not is what was most interesting. It was the flat-top appearance of the graph which when you go back though the years provided on the DMI web page, doesn’t seem to have appeared before.
This is the the DMI graph (annotated by WUWT) from yesterday’s data, July 1st, which appeared today. There is a one day update lag. The original graph is available here at DMI.
I also provided a 2x magnified inset of the current period of interest.
The current temperature derivation (T799) is in red, while the 1958-2002 mean from their data is in green. I had expected by now that the “flat-top” would be growing into a rise similar to the top of the mean curve, but it has remained flat.
Again, this flat-top doesn’t seem to be found in any of the older data. If I were of a Mannian mood, I might be tempted to label this as “unprecedented” since record keeping began.
But there may be some other explanations. As we’ve seen with NSIDC, they’ve had some sensor problems, while that is unconnected here, the possibility of such things exists not only in the input data, but also in the processing of the data. There may be a software change or some other contributing factor.
The floating ice buoy I referenced in my last post, the “North Pole Cam” operated by NOAA (Link is here: http://www.arctic.noaa.gov/gallery_np.html )still has air temperatures from its two probes below the freezing mark, ~ minus 2°C which you can see here:
http://www.arctic.noaa.gov/weather_data/2009/07100_hdr.wx
So the data may very well be real. Notice also that the trend in DMI plots for the last few years since 2000 has been ever so slightly below the mean. Since the sea ice melt may be driven more by wind and currents, what effect it may have on the 2009 sea ice melt season remains to be seen. I think it would be safe to say though, that NSIDC’s director, Mark Serreze won’t be issuing an “ice free north pole” soundbite this year.
I’m putting the DMI temperature plot into the “widgets” section of the WUWT sidebar, as I expect there will be continuing interest.
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Roger (12:22:38) :
and whats about the temperatures between 70 an 80°N?
Equatorial temperatures are also of great interest to some, but hardly germaine to the topic under discussion here…
aha,
now i think its not useless to know whats going on at the N pole. like we find some “hot spots” in little regions on the earth, depending on weather coditions. so now, if we look at the arctic, it should be important to know, if there are bigger aereas which are cooler than avererage or only 2 stations.
lets have a look at the weather:
http://www.wetterzentrale.de/topkarten/fsavnnh.html
high pressure around the pole and low gradient, a subsidenz inversion, positive t at 850hpa and prognosted 0°C at the surface…
Looking at the Cryosphere graphs, anyone else see the very strange sudden drop in ice extent in Antarctica? This is either a reporting error or something that is extremely unusual this time of year..
Regarding the “flatness” of the recent “current temperature derivation” — I merely emailed the contact name for the DMI Center for Ocean and Ice and asked if it was due to a sensor error. I received a prompt reply which I quote:
“Yes – it can seem a little artificial that the mean temperature North of the 80 N parallel follows the melt-line of water, for the past week or more.
However, I do believe the data are all right and just reflect a relative stable period i the Arctic.
When the lower atmosphere is stable, the air temperature will approach the temperature of the surface, which in this case is the ice surface at about melting point. I believe the temperature will approach the climate curve when the lower atmosphere will be less stable and the air will be mixed by stronger winds.
Further, the temperatures that are plotted in the graph are retrieved from an ‘analysis’ model field. That is (a brief version :-)): all available observations are put into a mathematical formulation, that finds the best possible temperature field that fits the observations with the least error. Therefore, it is very unlikely to be a sensor error.”
This response came from a scientist with the “Sektion for Polar Oceanografi”. As this was a response to a personal email I will withhold his name.
Hope this is of interest!
Michael Jennings (06:40:04) :
Looking at the Cryosphere graphs, anyone else see the very strange sudden drop in ice extent in Antarctica? This is either a reporting error or something that is extremely unusual this time of year..
Firstly, it’s area not extent, secondly, it is normal for this time of year once the growth curve starts to roll off (look at the same time last year for example).
SunSword (06:40:07) :
Very informative explanation. The graph still looks unnatural to me. Let’s see how it looks in another week.
Frank Lansner (02:20:47) :
Flanagan (22:40:13) :
You think its looks strange because the coldness does not fit the melting at this moment.
Flanagan, i understand 100%
But the thing is, the meltings are happening around South East Greenland, West Greenland and certain other regions far from 80 degrees north.
This means that the Core of the arctic ice is likely to be very robust this year.
Like it was in 2007?
In August most of these southern areas are normaly melted away, and what will determine the real september minumum is the robustness of the ice north of 80 degrees.
True, but so far there is no sign of any robustness over and above 2007 say.
But important (!!) take a look at South east Greenland sea ice extend.
Its very small and indicates that there is not so much ice floating down from the north. This might partly explain why the ice north of 80 degrees is practically without any open sea areas, even small. And this again explain why the temperatures are so low. No open sea ares.
The flow out of the Fram strait was strong this winter, perhaps it was thinner than usual and broke up faster? As stated above the area north of 80ºN looks about the same as it did in 2007.
And this lack of ice in South east Greenland is contributing to the low iceextend today, but wil contribute to high ice extend in september.
Doubtful.
Phil. (07:53:31) if you look closely at the CT SH anomaly chart, 2009 for July 2, area is 203,703 sq km ahead of same date 2008. That’s 11 pixels, with 54 pixels =1 X 10^6 sq km. 2009 is 55K less area than 2007, 3 pixels, but 2007 was strange as ice was increasing at this time of year, from a minimum in Dec. 2006. NASA says 2007 had unusual currents and winds causing the mass migration of ice out of the arctic.
Phil. (07:53:31) :
“doubtfull” you write. Yes, that true, i failed to write that my assumptions are indeed just a guess.
But Phil, my point is, that the ice flow from the area north of 80 degrees down via South East Greenland is smaller than 2007, and that this is of relevanse to the minimim 2009 sep. You dount agree??
Steve Keohane (10:32:18) :
Phil. (07:53:31) if you look closely at the CT SH anomaly chart, 2009 for July 2, area is 203,703 sq km ahead of same date 2008. That’s 11 pixels, with 54 pixels =1 X 10^6 sq km.
I’m not sure what you mean by ‘ahead’, on the CT SH graph the area is about 500,000 sq km less than in 2008 (11.937 Mm^2)
2009 is 55K less area than 2007, 3 pixels, but 2007 was strange as ice was increasing at this time of year, from a minimum in Dec. 2006. NASA says 2007 had unusual currents and winds causing the mass migration of ice out of the arctic.
This appears to be related to the NH not SH but I don’t see the relevance.
Frank Lansner (10:35:21) :
Phil. (07:53:31) :
“doubtfull” you write. Yes, that true, i failed to write that my assumptions are indeed just a guess.
But Phil, my point is, that the ice flow from the area north of 80 degrees down via South East Greenland is smaller than 2007, and that this is of relevanse to the minimim 2009 sep. You dount agree??
What data do you have to support that assertion?
The Russian base NP-36 is drifting in that direction at average velocity of ~8 km/day over the last week, occasionally up to 12 km/day.
Perhaps the lack of ice there is because the SST is high there?
http://sharaku.eorc.jaxa.jp/cgi-bin/amsr/polar_sst/polar_sst.cgi?lang=e
My earlier post about the flatline after 100 days looks pretty normal. I looked at all years (which I should have done before), and that happens in quite a few of them. This year looks quite similar to 2005, except this year is slightly cooler through the Spring up until now. And again, the Arctic is melting off a bit different this year, so there is a different pattern working.
Henry Galt (11:58:26)
Great post – agree with all of it, especially the suggestion that the warmists are shooting themselves in both feet with their intolerance and chippy attitude.
This might be obvious, but it confirms the problem:
http://www.theregister.co.uk/2009/07/02/people_like_congenial_news/
I especially liked this comment from the Professor: “those with little confidence in their own beliefs who are least willing to consider opposing views”
Phil, its quite common knowledge that 2007 had unusual winds etc. leading ice to drift away faster than normal. Or?
Since I have not seen a debate over this “fact” i have not questioned it.
here a random description from the internet:
http://newsbusters.org/blogs/noel-sheppard/2007/10/05/unusual-winds-caused-arctic-ice-melts-not-global-warming
Heres some drift graphics, and its true, hard to see the big difference between 2007 and 2009 from this:
ftp://ftp.ifremer.fr/ifremer/cersat/products/gridded/psi-drift/quicklooks/arctic/amsre-merged/6-daily/
But you are sure that 2009 have similar wind phenomenon pushing ice away from the arcic as in 2007? Howcome we havent heard of this?
Here are graphic temperature data in the arctic 23-25 june 2009:
http://www.klimadebat.dk/forum/vedhaeftninger/arktisjuni25.gif
29 june 2009:
http://www.klimadebat.dk/forum/vedhaeftninger/arktis29juni.gif
2 july 2009:
http://www.klimadebat.dk/forum/vedhaeftninger/arktis2juli.gif
So if everyone believes these data are some error, its very unlikely that so many stations shouls have error at the same time.
No, face it, it has indeed been record cold up there this year. Amazing.
And i agree fully with “Bill” : This is an error and the missing high temperatures are due to frozen themometers 🙂
First we have the biggest survey made this year showing that ice is thicker than expected (Wegner) then we have cold temperatures.
Nature knows how to make a thriller.
June and July at Alert 82 degrees north has seen a majority of below freezing temperatures.
http://www.climate.weatheroffice.ec.gc.ca/climateData/dailydata_e.html
Using my knowledge of Arctic history and observing the cool PDO and the low level of activity of the Sun I am predicting another increase in the minimum level of ice this year. Basically my use of common sense against the consensus of science. I haven’t yet figured out what the consensus of scientists use to make their predictions of less and less ice. I don’t think they use science.
Bremen Arctic ice for July 3 2007
http://www.iup.uni-bremen.de:8084/amsredata/asi_daygrid_swath/l1a/n6250/2007/jul/asi-n6250-20070702-v5_nic.pdf
Bremen Arctic ice for July 3 2008
http://www.iup.uni-bremen.de:8084/amsredata/asi_daygrid_swath/l1a/n6250/2008/jun/
Bremen today
http://www.iup.uni-bremen.de:8084/amsr/arctic_AMSRE_nic.png
Bremen 2008 index of Arctic ice here
http://www.iup.uni-bremen.de:8084/amsredata/asi_daygrid_swath/l1a/n6250/2008/jul/
Frank Lansner (14:03:54) :
Phil, its quite common knowledge that 2007 had unusual winds etc. leading ice to drift away faster than normal. Or?
Since I have not seen a debate over this “fact” i have not questioned it.
But you asserted that “the ice flow from the area north of 80 degrees down via South East Greenland is smaller than 2007”, which is what I questioned.
But you are sure that 2009 have similar wind phenomenon pushing ice away from the arcic as in 2007? Howcome we havent heard of this?
I don’t know why, I’ve pointed out the strong flow through the Fram several times during the winter/spring.
At the ARCUS site you can find the following:
“Although fall 2008 had almost 0.5 million square kilometers more multiyear sea ice extent than fall 2007, on 1 May 2009, the perennial ice extent had been reduced to 2.1 million square kilometers, which is virtually equivalent to the 2.2 million square kilometers of perennial ice extent on 1 May 2008. The sea ice on the Eurasian side of the North Pole is primarily second-year sea ice remaining from summer 2008; indications are that part of this sea ice exited Fram Strait under the influence of a more positive Arctic Oscillation climate pattern in winter and spring 2009.”
Phil. (11:41:41):
“Perhaps the lack of ice there is because the SST is high there?”
http://sharaku.eorc.jaxa.jp/cgi-bin/amsr/polar_sst/polar_sst.cgi?lang=e
If there had been large amounts of ice being melted by the seawater in that area, wouldn’t that cause the SST to fall due to the influx of cold melt-water as well as energy for the phase change being drawn from the sea surface water?
Perhaps you got the cause and effect switched, and instead the high SST there is because of relatively less ice being pushed out through the Fram strait.
Also see:
SunSword (06:40:07) :
“Regarding the “flatness” of the recent “current temperature derivation” — I merely emailed the contact name for the DMI Center for Ocean and Ice and asked if it was due to a sensor error. I received a prompt reply which I quote:
“Yes – it can seem a little artificial that the mean temperature North of the 80 N parallel follows the melt-line of water, for the past week or more.
However, I do believe the data are all right and just reflect a relative stable period i the Arctic.
When the lower atmosphere is stable, the air temperature will approach the temperature of the surface, which in this case is the ice surface at about melting point. I believe the temperature will approach the climate curve when the lower atmosphere will be less stable and the air will be mixed by stronger winds.
Further, the temperatures that are plotted in the graph are retrieved from an ‘analysis’ model field. That is (a brief version :-)): all available observations are put into a mathematical formulation, that finds the best possible temperature field that fits the observations with the least error. Therefore, it is very unlikely to be a sensor error.”
This response came from a scientist with the “Sektion for Polar Oceanografi”. As this was a response to a personal email I will withhold his name.”
At least DMI seem to think that the unusually low June temperatures above 80N is due to stable lower atmosphere, i.e. less wind pushing the ice out of the Arctic down the Fram strait.
Regards
As of July 2, it seems a bit early to assume that the temperature record has flat-lined as a peak, but it is certainly possible. (Unlikely, but possible: The current “flat-line” could be the peak temperatures for 2009.) But – if the Arctic temperatures remain at today’s levels for only another 2 weeks, then, yes, they may will be at their peak. Remaining at this level (near zero) for another 3 weeks would be a good indication that this year has vert low, very long flat-lined peak that indicates:
that 2007 low sea-ice measure has been recovered from,
that the theoretical scare-case scenario of Arctic ice melting -> uncovering bare ground and open water -> the bare ground and open water heating the air even more -> the heated air melting even more ice the next winter is completely wrong.
Realistically, we cannot influence nor change the temperatures up there, but can only watch, record, and wonder. (Of course, it is more fun to predict and argue about what the Arctic temperatures and sea ice measures will do than just to watch …)
—
The Arctic is critical to AGW-CO2 theory because it is so cold, so dry up there that the greenhouse gas effect oF CO2 dominates that of water vapor: so the AGW-greenhouse gas theory REQUIRES that Arctic temperatures increase faster and more visibly with increases in CO2 ion the Arctic.
One thing I haven’t yet figured out is why the end of one year’s data is not the beginning of another. Click 1999 on the data set, and then 2000. Note the end of 1999 is far lower than the beginning of 2000. Why?
But the ice anomaly sinks…
Looks as if the snow has blown away from the sensor! Temps now seem to be rising.
The temp sensor is supposed to be 1metre above snow? But the turbine and “box” in the picture show no such instrument.
Is the sensor on the camera location? If so then the camera has visually been in a snow drift for the last few weeks. Would the sensor therefor be covered also?