WUWT readers may recall seeing this article last week:
In that article, Joe D’Aleo presented a graph from the Danish Meteorological Institute (DMI) that showed that the area above 80 degrees north had still not climbed above freezing point of fresh water. Granted sea water doesn’t freeze until around -4°C, but that not is what was most interesting. It was the flat-top appearance of the graph which when you go back though the years provided on the DMI web page, doesn’t seem to have appeared before.
This is the the DMI graph (annotated by WUWT) from yesterday’s data, July 1st, which appeared today. There is a one day update lag. The original graph is available here at DMI.
I also provided a 2x magnified inset of the current period of interest.
The current temperature derivation (T799) is in red, while the 1958-2002 mean from their data is in green. I had expected by now that the “flat-top” would be growing into a rise similar to the top of the mean curve, but it has remained flat.
Again, this flat-top doesn’t seem to be found in any of the older data. If I were of a Mannian mood, I might be tempted to label this as “unprecedented” since record keeping began.
But there may be some other explanations. As we’ve seen with NSIDC, they’ve had some sensor problems, while that is unconnected here, the possibility of such things exists not only in the input data, but also in the processing of the data. There may be a software change or some other contributing factor.
The floating ice buoy I referenced in my last post, the “North Pole Cam” operated by NOAA (Link is here: http://www.arctic.noaa.gov/gallery_np.html )still has air temperatures from its two probes below the freezing mark, ~ minus 2°C which you can see here:
So the data may very well be real. Notice also that the trend in DMI plots for the last few years since 2000 has been ever so slightly below the mean. Since the sea ice melt may be driven more by wind and currents, what effect it may have on the 2009 sea ice melt season remains to be seen. I think it would be safe to say though, that NSIDC’s director, Mark Serreze won’t be issuing an “ice free north pole” soundbite this year.
I’m putting the DMI temperature plot into the “widgets” section of the WUWT sidebar, as I expect there will be continuing interest.