WUWT readers may recall seeing this article last week:
Arctic temperature is still not above 0°C – the latest date in fifty years of record keeping
In that article, Joe D’Aleo presented a graph from the Danish Meteorological Institute (DMI) that showed that the area above 80 degrees north had still not climbed above freezing point of fresh water. Granted sea water doesn’t freeze until around -4°C, but that not is what was most interesting. It was the flat-top appearance of the graph which when you go back though the years provided on the DMI web page, doesn’t seem to have appeared before.
This is the the DMI graph (annotated by WUWT) from yesterday’s data, July 1st, which appeared today. There is a one day update lag. The original graph is available here at DMI.
I also provided a 2x magnified inset of the current period of interest.
The current temperature derivation (T799) is in red, while the 1958-2002 mean from their data is in green. I had expected by now that the “flat-top” would be growing into a rise similar to the top of the mean curve, but it has remained flat.
Again, this flat-top doesn’t seem to be found in any of the older data. If I were of a Mannian mood, I might be tempted to label this as “unprecedented” since record keeping began.
But there may be some other explanations. As we’ve seen with NSIDC, they’ve had some sensor problems, while that is unconnected here, the possibility of such things exists not only in the input data, but also in the processing of the data. There may be a software change or some other contributing factor.
The floating ice buoy I referenced in my last post, the “North Pole Cam” operated by NOAA (Link is here: http://www.arctic.noaa.gov/gallery_np.html )still has air temperatures from its two probes below the freezing mark, ~ minus 2°C which you can see here:
http://www.arctic.noaa.gov/weather_data/2009/07100_hdr.wx
So the data may very well be real. Notice also that the trend in DMI plots for the last few years since 2000 has been ever so slightly below the mean. Since the sea ice melt may be driven more by wind and currents, what effect it may have on the 2009 sea ice melt season remains to be seen. I think it would be safe to say though, that NSIDC’s director, Mark Serreze won’t be issuing an “ice free north pole” soundbite this year.
I’m putting the DMI temperature plot into the “widgets” section of the WUWT sidebar, as I expect there will be continuing interest.
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Ben–
No one doubts ice volume would be a better metric. Unfortunately, it is one we don’t have available to us, neither in current real-time nor in historical comparison. So we use what we have.
That’s a problem for AGW science in general, really. So much certainty expressed for such large holes in the data. It sort of reminds me of what a US Supreme Court justice once said about his job –“The hard part is to sound 100% sure when you’re only 51% sure”.
Eureka is located basically at 80 degrees north (near and dear to me as i worked there in 79-80) and for much of June it was above zero, see:
http://www.climate.weatheroffice.ec.gc.ca/climateData/dailydata_e.html
and select Eureka Nunavut
And from OZ. Thredbo is waking up to white this morning, with a deep blanket of snow across the mountain and all the way to the village. Freshies for breakfast today…
It’s a fresh snow Friday in the mountains. Another 20cm fell overnight making that 65cm since Tuesday night. It is still snowing. Great snow cover, with freshies galore in the off-piste and sweet smooth groomed for those cruising. The snowmakers also added to the cover on the upper trails.
http://www.thredbo.com.au/
But we were also treated to a daily dose of AGW propaganda on ABC radio about the few misguided people being funded by Exxon just like what happened with tobacco misleading the public. Here’s hoping for a bumper season.
Synop based information over the Arctic: http://www.ogimet.com/cgi-bin/gsynop?zona=artico&base=bluem&proy=orto&ano=2009&mes=07&day=02&hora=18&vte=Te&enviar=Ver
Anyone have a link to how the winds are doing up there?
Mabie I should invest heavily in winterwear companies…
Interesting site, it is a real time temp map looking down from the North Pole. Unfortunately it only shows over land.
http://www.uni-koeln.de/math-nat-fak/geomet/meteo/winfos/arcisoTTPPWW.gif
I really wonder if the increase in volcanic aerosols, along with a solar minimum (increased GCR = more clouds) is having an effect here (more Sun be reflected back?). 2009 extent has been following 2008 lately in the overall, but particular seas are running different than last year. So there has been a change in how it has been melting. It’ll be the minimum that will be of great interest here. 2+ months to go.
-NZ is much colder than last year at the moment. (at least for Wellington)
– Summer in Greece hasn’t showed up properly yet, lot’s of clouds and temperature is below normal, if it continues like this for the rest of July then we’ve skipped summer…
The flatline of temps 100+ days in is not long after the Redoubt eruptions. And the recent eruptions of Sarychev in the Kuril islands has put out quite a bit of SO2 recently, as well. And it’s all staying in the higher latitudes.
The DMI data is not direct measured data. It is reanalysis data – which is the output of a climate model, after direct observations are fed into the model.
Such data is supposed to be most reliable for quantities directly constrained by physical observation such as temperature. The quality is generally much better in the middle lattitudes, and less reliable in polar regions, near the surface, in the tropics or in the stratosphere.
http://jra.kishou.go.jp/JRA-25/3rac/program/V1-201.pdf
realitycheck (13:21:20) :
Meanwhile, in other “news” Climate change is shrinking sheep apparently…
Could it not be that with the warmer climate of the last few years resulting in higher survival rate of the sheep from year to year resulting in greater competition for the available feed the sheep would naturally be of smaller size.
Any farmer who increases their stocking rate grows smaller animals
Sheep have “evolved” since 1985? Darwin’s pocket sheep? You guys have to stop reading Mad Magazine.
I made a prediction about a year ago that 2009 ice would come in about what 2005 ice did. But at this point it is really hard to tell. There is really a mixed bag of temperatures. Places like Anchorage, AK are having a warmer summer this year than last while places like Chicago are cooler.
It certainly “seems” like temperatures are cooler over a wide area this year … but try telling that to someone in the UK this week.
Winnipeg Canada suffers another month of below normal temperatures http://robsobsblog.blogspot.com/
Maybe the Caitlin team knocked over the sensor.
Mark Bowlin (19:00:48) :
Maybe the Caitlin team knocked over the sensor.
Maybe they took it with them and are trying to find somewhere warmer…
Regarding the ice widget, you can click through all the years since 1958 and it’s amazing how closely the actual temperature follows the mean for virtually every year “since records began”! Until this year, that is…
It looks dodgy – either something is not reading correctly, or, something strange is happening this year…
Jimmy Haigh,
did you miss all the posts on the sun, GCR’s, and volcanoes??
It looks strange, even if we’re at aphelion. I don’t know if they’re any measurement problem, but it doesn’t seem to correlate very much with the melting that can be observed rightnow. Take a look at the following from JAXA (date-extent-daily sea ice loss):
7/2/2009 9605000 -117813
7/1/2008 9645000 -77656
7/2/2007 9126875 -162031
7/2/2006 9159063 -79531
7/2/2005 9556719 -58750
7/1/2004 10060625 -32344
7/2/2003 9895938 -71093
7/2/2002 10007813 -36093
2009 is the 4th lowest (5th highest) in the last 8 years but most importantly it has the second most rapidly decaying sea ice: only 2007 did “better”. For example it is decaying rapidly compared to 2008, which as I said is not really coherent with lower temperatures up there.
Crosspatch
“It certainly “seems” like temperatures are cooler over a wide area this year … but try telling that to someone in the UK this week.”
You have just perfectly illustrated the nonsense of national temperatures let alone Global ones. The world is comprised of milions of micro climates. Whilst London (Uhi in a Valley) sweltered in up to 31C we (South West coast of England) have had pleasant mixed weather around 21-23C. Yesterday it rained most of the day and reached 17.5C.
Tonyb
Hi Antony
Thanks for that information. It’s interesting to see a different view, and some interesting data and data sources presented.
As it happens, the weather in London is really hot right now (if you tune into Wimbledon you can see that we’ve all roasting in the sun and both the grass on Centre Court and the spectators there are turning browner by the day).
We had a snowy week last February which you recorded in great detail, and I recall you memorably mentioning then that the London temperature hadn’t exceeded 30C for 1,000 days. Your implication then, as in this story, was that evidence of cold weather meant that global warming clearly wasn’t happening.
Now the temperature here has now been up around and above 30C all week, meaning that it’s hotter now in London than at any time across the past three years. Shock, horror !
Following your logic and reporting criteria (as indeed applied in this story above) we must view this as extremely alarming since it provides such firm and compelling evidence that global warming is back and indeed sharply accelerating here in London.
Unless perhaps your logic works entirely differently during periods of warm weather than it does for cold snaps ?
Anyway, just a thought. Keep up the good work — and meanwhile as in the case of melting Arctic ice perhaps we’ll take such a selective reporting style with just a pinch of salt … !
The graph shows temperatures about +/- 0 C …It’s a calcutated temperature not observed.
Despite the low temperatures in the Arctic it can also indicate a extrem high melting… when the ice melts i sucks all the heat-energy out of the air and water
Flanagan (22:40:13) :
You think its looks strange because the coldness does not fit the melting at this moment.
Flanagan, i understand 100%
But the thing is, the meltings are happening around South East Greenland, West Greenland and certain other regions far from 80 degrees north.
This means that the Core of the arctic ice is likely to be very robust this year.
In August most of these southern areas are normaly melted away, and what will determine the real september minumum is the robustness of the ice north of 80 degrees.
But important (!!) take a look at South east Greenland sea ice extend.
Its very small and indicates that there is not so much ice floating down from the north. This might partly explain why the ice north of 80 degrees is practically without any open sea areas, even small. And this again explain why the temperatures are so low. No open sea ares.
And this lack of ice in South east Greenland is contributing to the low iceextend today, but wil contribute to high ice extend in september.
K.R. Frank
(Ahh, Hej Sven Erik!!)
Could it be that the ice is in the process of absorbing the heat from the atmosphere which is keeping the temperature down and flat for now?
From my article http://pathstoknowledge.wordpress.com/2009/02/22/how-could-we-melt-enough-ice-for-a-20ft-rise-in-sea-levels/ are the following quotes that might be relevant.
“When ice melts, it absorbs as much heat energy (the heat of fusion) as it would take to heat an equivalent mass of water by 80 °C, while its temperature remains a constant 0 °C.” – wikipedia on ice
“When you heat a material, you are adding kinetic energy to its molecules and usually raising its temperature. The only exception is when the material reaches its melting or boiling points. At those two temperatures, the heat energy goes into changing the state of the material. After the state has changed, the temperature will rise again with added heat. The rate temperature changes is the specific heat of the material. The amount of heat required to melt the material is called the latent heat of melting.” – Ron Kurtus
Also see: http://pathstoknowledge.wordpress.com/2009/02/22/a-sea-level-calculator/
Roads
Glad you are enjoying the completely normal hot June days-down here in the South West temperatures tend to be more moderate.
According to CET we have just expereienced the warmest June in the UK since..err…2007.
Tonyb