WUWT readers may recall seeing this article last week:
Arctic temperature is still not above 0°C – the latest date in fifty years of record keeping
In that article, Joe D’Aleo presented a graph from the Danish Meteorological Institute (DMI) that showed that the area above 80 degrees north had still not climbed above freezing point of fresh water. Granted sea water doesn’t freeze until around -4°C, but that not is what was most interesting. It was the flat-top appearance of the graph which when you go back though the years provided on the DMI web page, doesn’t seem to have appeared before.
This is the the DMI graph (annotated by WUWT) from yesterday’s data, July 1st, which appeared today. There is a one day update lag. The original graph is available here at DMI.
I also provided a 2x magnified inset of the current period of interest.
The current temperature derivation (T799) is in red, while the 1958-2002 mean from their data is in green. I had expected by now that the “flat-top” would be growing into a rise similar to the top of the mean curve, but it has remained flat.
Again, this flat-top doesn’t seem to be found in any of the older data. If I were of a Mannian mood, I might be tempted to label this as “unprecedented” since record keeping began.
But there may be some other explanations. As we’ve seen with NSIDC, they’ve had some sensor problems, while that is unconnected here, the possibility of such things exists not only in the input data, but also in the processing of the data. There may be a software change or some other contributing factor.
The floating ice buoy I referenced in my last post, the “North Pole Cam” operated by NOAA (Link is here: http://www.arctic.noaa.gov/gallery_np.html )still has air temperatures from its two probes below the freezing mark, ~ minus 2°C which you can see here:
http://www.arctic.noaa.gov/weather_data/2009/07100_hdr.wx
So the data may very well be real. Notice also that the trend in DMI plots for the last few years since 2000 has been ever so slightly below the mean. Since the sea ice melt may be driven more by wind and currents, what effect it may have on the 2009 sea ice melt season remains to be seen. I think it would be safe to say though, that NSIDC’s director, Mark Serreze won’t be issuing an “ice free north pole” soundbite this year.
I’m putting the DMI temperature plot into the “widgets” section of the WUWT sidebar, as I expect there will be continuing interest.
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Yes, clearly the sensor is covered with ice. Adding a small heater should solve the problem and bring the readings in line with current policy.
and whats about the temperatures between 70 an 80°N?
This would be very interesting, for me and maybe for others…
I have been trying, without success, to down load the temperature and sea ice data from the DMI. I wanted to compare the sea ice to the 2 meter temperature, and see if there was a correlation.
Whenever I submit my acceptance on the conditions of use, I get….nada…
Anybody here get the same results?
bill (10:29:27) : Are you sure the sensor is not snow/ice covered!
I’m betting this is the problem.
and whats about the temperatures between 70 an 80°N?
Equatorial temperatures are also of great interest to some, but hardly germaine to the topic under discussion here.
How have you concluded that the sensor is covered with ice? It was measuring over 0C two-three days ago. It only went below 0 again the past two days. From Jun 11 to Jun 17 or so it was above 0. The graph seems pretty consistent. Since that time it has been very overcast at that station according to the webcam so the temperatures given seem quite plausible.
Henry Galt
>You do know that we, on this side of your non-debate,
>have remained even tempered and polite in the face of threatening
>behaviour and demeaning name calling, amongst other “things”,
>when we have dared to question credo?
So True! You will never find a single bit of snark posted here directed at Gore, or Hansen, or Mann, or Schmidt, or NASA, or any other misguided buffoon fabricating data for the AWGers!
NASA better get up there and generate some heat!
It’s cold up there in the North, much colder than last year. It’s waiting to unleash itself come fall, like it did last year.
3rd year of very low solar activity.
Southern Hemisphere winter (Aust. & NZ) should be a good indication of what is coming for us in the North.
I would not want to be in the Yukon or anywhere close to it this winter.
They got by just barely last winter.
It will be interesting watching this
http://www.ijis.iarc.uaf.edu/seaice/extent/AMSRE_Sea_Ice_Extent.png
the next few days. Will it take the turn down or remain the same as 2008?
@ak
Yes, it’s quite normal for the North Pole to be ice free in the summer, but don’t try telling that to the NYT or our lurking warmists!
I googled “Mark Serreze” and the second link with this article at ABC News title “North Pole Could Be Ice Free in 2008” http://abcnews.go.com/Technology/story?id=4728737&page=1. The article implies this would be something unusual.
I next googled “Mark Serreze” and “ice free” and found the following:
Jos (10:46:33) :
Is there a surface temperature station in the vicinity that can confirm this lack of temperatures above freezing?
Don’t be daft, there’s a complete lack of asphalt and air conditioning units in the Arctic, so they would never be able to find an appropriate location for a weather station. 😉
David Ermer (12:20:43) :
bill (10:29:27) : Are you sure the sensor is not snow/ice covered!
I’m betting this is the problem.
What sensor, those are model data?
Also why would you expect air temperature adjacent to ice in a temperature inversion to be much above 0ºC (which is above the melting point of first year ice)?
KBK (12:06:20) :
Yes, clearly the sensor is covered with ice. Adding a small heater should solve the problem and bring the readings in line with current policy.
Yes, and I don’t think we can chance automation.
It should be remote controlled.
Meanwhile, in other “news” Climate change is shrinking sheep apparently…
http://news.bbc.co.uk/2/hi/science/nature/8130907.stm
Alert Canada is presently -2C. This is approximately 82N. I’ve checked this about one or two times a week and it has been below zero. This is an excellent interactive map giving temps of selected places around the arctic basin. Northern Russia is relatively warm (Pevek, Tiksi), Hammerfest Norway is +4 and Resolute is +2C
http://www.athropolis.com/map2.htm
The sun is shining.
But the ice is slippery.
realitycheck (13:21:20) :
Meanwhile, in other “news” Climate change is shrinking sheep apparently…
http://news.bbc.co.uk/2/hi/science/nature/8130907.stm
“The next step is to extend our description of past change into a predictive model,” said Professor Coulson.
“But it’s too early to say if, in 100 years, we will have chihuahuas herding pocket-sized sheep.”
And in a 1000 years…Subatomic sheepicles!
Looking at the IJIS site, the 2009 line is still riding the 2008 line, marginally above 2005. 2005 is my benchmark for this summer. If we stay closely around, or even above, 2005, that would really put a crimp in arctic ice hysteria.
May not happen tho. “2nd year ice” is still a little bit unknown. Last summer’s experience, in my opinion, did prove that “1st year ice” was a real issue to consider. My working hypothesis is that 2nd year ice will be to a degree, but a lesser degree.
Early August we find out for sure. That’s when the 2008 line crossed below 2005 and kept going south, even tho it bottomed well above 2007.
@Gary Young pearse:
great map. there are only two stations on this map above 80°, Alert and North Pole. Alert at -2°.
For those interested in NZ as a possible indicator of the coming northern winter, June has been officially described as much colder than normal.
At the moment it is snowing inland and did so earlier this week. That means that we have the best ski conditions for many years; many roads are again impassable or need chains. A couple of weeks ago, all schools were closed for a day in Dunedin and unusually low snow led to many minor accidents. I had to stay home because the local roads were closed.
This has happened before, of course, but what is unusual this year is the duration of low temperatures, the increased precipitation and the frequency of snow falls (some years we have none). Australia seems to be the same, at least in the ski area.
However, this is not deterring the true believers. Our city council apparently employs a ‘Safe and Sustainable Travel Co-ordinator’ She asked the council to support ‘350’ activities because we ‘will have an ice-free planet in 30 years’. I emailed councillors with a contrary view and did the true believers react.
I am, of course, a relic of an unprecedented anti-AGW funding blitz by Exxon and others; nine of the last ten years were records for unprecedented warming. ‘NASA scientist James Hanson said so’. I need to be silenced because uninformed people might believe me. I’ve just informed our good councillors that eco-activist/scientist was recently arrested for protest activity, while providing some good web links, including, of course WUWT.
Anyway, folks, if your winter echoes ours so far, its going to be a ripper!
I looked around the website that hosts that figure and I can’t seem to find the data that generated it. Can anyone help me out? Maybe I was looking in the wrong spot.
Steven Hill (12:48:50) :
What about ice mass? I mean, surface area I would expect to follow that curve (+/-) every single year, even if global temp was up 4-5 degrees.
Its really kind of a silly metric isn’t it? Maybe I am ignorant, if so, please feel free to tell my why.
Ben
The DMI archive goes back to 1958 and the annual graphs are almost amazingly consistent at the tops of the curves. I’d suggest that this anomalous flatline be treated with a large degree of suspicion until the information can be backed up or verified. The real proof of the pudding will probably have to wait for the down leg of the curve, where recent years have been rather consistently above the mean line of the graphs.
Isn’t it at all possible that the wind blowing ice out of the Arctic actually released heat from the water?
What I mean is that the freezing of newly exposed areas of water has to have used up some energy.