For the third straight summer, the UK Met Office has forecast hot weather using their state of the art computer models. Summer 2007 and 2008 were complete washouts, ranking as two of the most miserable, rainy summers on record.
Summer 2007 – a wet season
Wet summer could end with a bang
29 August 2008
Forecasters at the Met Office are predicting that that final day of the summer could end with heavy rain and thunderstorms affecting some parts of the country this weekend … … Within the UK some local rainfall records have been broken, especially across parts of Northern Ireland and Scotland where flooding severely affected road and rail transport. Provisional rainfall figures show that Northern Ireland had its wettest August since 1914 .
The current summer isn’t looking much better. Here is the forecast from UK Weather Online.
Do you want summer?
Issued: 0900hrs Friday 5th June 2009
Duty forecaster: Simon Keeling & Captain Bob
If you’re requiring rain you’ll be in luck, if you’re wishing for summer, then perhaps don’t hold your breath!
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Suppose may be if they forecast ‘persistence’…eventually one summer will turn out right.
Once again I am reminded on the Homeland Security’s Orange and Red Threat Lights, which were never Green, yet nothing ever happened.
Poor drenched UK. All those merchants stocking up on hot weather apparel and goods are out once again. 3rd time a charm? Don’t bet on it.
That could be 2 or more solar cycles or an AMO flip down the road, KW.
Eventually, if you buy enough lottery tickets, you’ll win something. Your pocketbook, however, may be empty before then.
Maybe Met Office forecasting uses the same thinking as punters when they choose lotto numbers. If I keep using the same numbers – say my child’s birthday – eventually I’ll get a win.
Not the only place in the world cool and rainy.
Summer takes a rest in the West (US)
http://www.accuweather.com/mt-news-blogs.asp?partner=netweather&blog=Clark&pgurl=/mtweb/content/Clark/archives/2009/06/summer_takes_a_rest_in_the_west.asp
Summer nowhere to be found in the Northern US
http://www.accuweather.com/news-story.asp?partner=netweather&traveler=1&article=6
Freakish outbreak of rain during the Southern African dry season
http://www.accuweather.com/mt-news-blogs.asp?partner=netweather&blog=Andrews&pgurl=/mtweb/content/Andrews/archives/2009/06/extreme_unseasonal_rain_in_southern_africa.asp
Have to go to Mexico and then all the way over to India and the traditionally hot Middle East for warm stories
http://www.accuweather.com/regional-news-story.asp?partner=netweather&traveler=1®ion=worldnews
http://www.accuweather.com/news-story.asp?partner=netweather&traveler=1&article=8
Perhaps the people at the Hadley Centre are simply being bamboozled by their own technical wizardry.
Every brit knows perfectly well that the chances of a hot summer are 1 in 4 at the very, very most, and that would hold even if the rest of the world was on fire..
Then again, every brit expects weather forecasts to be comically wrong – the Met Office’s pronouncements on this are part of a long, and much loved vaudevillian tradition.
They will eventually be correct, 50/50 chance each year. Reminds me of the coin flipping in Rosencrantz and Guildenstern are Dead. 92 is the magic number.
Here in Canada the Agency Environment Canada simply make a prediction of above and below average, they have a 50% accuracy rate, which is the same as guessing.
1047 days since London made it to 30 deg C?
Watched the FA Cup Final 30 May 2009 played in over 40 deg C:
http://blogs.mirror.co.uk/fitness-lifestyle-guru/2009/06/were-chelsea-more-hydrated-tha.html
Have I got something wrong here or is the new Wembley Stadium a greenhouse?
Even a stopped clock is right twice a day. If they keep predicting the same weather, year after year, at some point, they are going to get it right.
Not this year. With Mt. Redoubt’s eruption the climate in the northern hemisphere will be a little cooler.
Shhhh… Everbody promise not to tell. I hacked the password to the Met Office forecast program.
It’s “Hope4iT”.
King of Cool …
That was likely the temp on the court. I’ve watched a bit of tennis myself, and have always noticed that the temp in stadium is higher than the ambient temp. I don’t know for sure, but I’d bet I’m right.
Yeah… where does the 1,047 days number come from? It does sound extraordinary.
Wunderground has London’s high temperature as 74 degrees Fahrenheit on May 30th (23.3 Celsius).
Wishcasting at its finest. Right up there with those hopeful predictions of a 1998-style super El Nino.
I do wish that North Dakota snow was here. North Carolina has been very hot since mid May, although the humidity has been unusually low for the 90 degree days. A high of 95 on Monday, which is cooler than last year when we had 5 days of 100 temperatures. It is not abnormal, but it is hot.
Speaking of El Nino Unysis still doesn’t show an El-Nino forming which solidifies points made by posters here
http://weather.unisys.com/surface/sst_anom.html
+Negative PDO (basic cold phase setup visible) and it’s obvious where the AMO is. Interesting that this map is very different from the NOAA maps and that’s not because of color choice.
“Good morning. Here is the weather forecast.
For today until midnight.
First the general situa-cion.”
Only slightly OT…
From the “I wonder if they’re going to ask for a refund for those computers” file:
http://www.icecap.us/
“Jun 08, 2009
Climate Skeptics Party Beat Labour in EU Elections
BBC News, 8 June 2009
The UK Independence Party has finished second in the European elections, ahead of Labour, on an impressive night for the Eurosceptic party. It performed strongly in the East of England, where it won two seats and its total vote went up, and also picked up seats in Yorkshire and London. ”
The money quote…
“As far as Britain is concerned, the Labour government and its green agenda is finished. Let that be a warning to President Obama and other would-be salvationists. Britain’s next government will have to carefully reassess all green and climate policies that pose a heavy burden on millions of struggling families and businesses. Otherwise, it will face the same popular revolt that is now bringing down the Brown government. ”
—
£30 million for weather/climate modeling computers, eh?
The warmest temperature this year in London has been 78F
http://www.wunderground.com/history/airport/EGLL/2009/5/1/CustomHistory.html?dayend=9&monthend=6&yearend=2009&req_city=NA&req_state=NA&req_statename=NA
Last year’s warmest was 86F
http://www.wunderground.com/history/airport/EGLL/2008/1/1/CustomHistory.html?dayend=31&monthend=12&yearend=2008&req_city=NA&req_state=NA&req_statename=NA
2007’s warmest was 82F
http://www.wunderground.com/history/airport/EGLL/2007/1/1/CustomHistory.html?dayend=31&monthend=12&yearend=2007&req_city=NA&req_state=NA&req_statename=NA
The last time it hit 90F was in July, 2006.
Met Office Summary for May, 2009 says that the UK’s warmest temperature was 26.9
http://www.metoffice.gov.uk/climate/uk/
A maximum temperature of 26.9 °C was recorded at Solent (Hampshire) on the 31st
>Deanster (18:55:34) :
>King of Cool …
>That was likely the temp on the court. I’ve watched a bit of >tennis myself, and have always noticed that the temp in stadium >is higher than the ambient temp. I don’t know for sure, but I’d >bet I’m right.
You are correct on one hand (that the temp is higher at pitch level) but wrong on the sport. The FA Cup is of course a major football cup in England and has nothing to do with Tennis beyond the fact that Wimbledon FC suck. =) That goes for Arsenal and Spurs too.
Just to add to Adam from Kansas (18:06:33) :
According to Long Range Expert Joe Bastardi, areas from the northern Plains into the Northeast will have a “year without a summer.”
http://www.accuweather.com/news-story.asp?partner=netweather&traveler=0&zipChg=1&article=9
In science thy try to call this an observation error? I like the cool weather. The extremists claim their models 20 years out are more accurate than a current thermometer reading.
I am sure the price of carbon indulgences will be low.
H.R. (18:32:56) : ..password .. “Hope4iT”.
No, it’s “don’t*bet*Piers*on*it”.