excerpts:
From Joe’s European Weather Blog:
The current unseasonable cold across northwest Europe is not the only place where the arctic hound is calling as yet another blast of reality gets lobbed into the base camp of agenda driven warmingistas, who of course refuse to see anything that could possibly challenge their false idols. I will not say that the cold that has been occurring is a sign an ice age it is on the way, but it is a sign that people worldwide had better wake up to the idea that the “science is in” crowd does not want them to see facts.
First of all, cries out of the U.S. government-based NOAA of “Here comes El Nino” are 5 months late to a party I starting throwing last winter. They are out of touch on this being a warm year unless of course they get to skew the data worldwide. The satellites which measure temps without instrument bias have been seeing the cooling. But here we find the private sector saying something 5 months before, and now the U.S. government mets are suddenly seeing it and issuing a) el nino watches and then b) taken the nonsensical step of saying we will have a hot time because of it. The El Nino is coming while the PDO is cold, and a winter more harsh than last year may be shaping up for Europe.
And from an AccuWeather article on lightning, Joe says parts of the US may have a year without a summer”:
According to Long Range Expert Joe Bastardi, areas from the northern Plains into the Northeast will have a “year without a summer.” The jet stream, which is suppressed abnormally south this spring, is also suppressing the number of thunderstorms that can form.
Yikes!
The NOAA Climate Prediction Center 8-14 day forecast says it is already shaping up to be a cold June:
and the 30 day CPC forecast here
Jim Clarke (11:10:15) :
“…namely the report by the American Academy of Pediatrics. This report claims that children will suffer more from global warming than adults.”
(Fiction).
Now, crude reality: 133 children who have died due to the seasonal flu caused by the low temperatures in the southern part of the country, especially in the Puno region.
Temperatures reached -25°C
Link:
http://globalvoicesonline.org/2009/05/28/peru-freezing-temperatures-in-puno-result-in-children-deaths
I’d be willing to bet it would be pretty hard to find any State College weather-folk that believes in AGW.
John W. (11:04:39) :
I’m not sure a Kalman filter is the right approach, but now I’ll have to dig books and papers out to brush up on the technique and consider it.
It is an optimal estimation of the true mean for most symmetric distributions, and many others. In the “climate distribution,” the only true “noise” of course is measurement noise which is typically assumed to have a uniform distribution, for which a Kalman filter is again optimal. The issue with the Kalman filter, of course, is the same as with any smoothing procedure: what are the noise characteristics?
Curse you! 8^)
I have my wife for that, but thank you anyway! 🙂
Mark
Aron,
Isn’t it funny that that stuff comes from the left who is against the death penalty and hard punishment for criminals? I guess that is reserved for people who just disagree with them…
“The New World religion wants to execute and imprison us skeptics now. It’s not just prophecy and apocalypse they stole from traditional theocracies but also the threat to kill heretics.”
John Egan (11:19:25) :
There are two far more likely reasons that grain production is down – –
1) Prices have plummeted
2) Very scarce credit during planting season
John,
The more reason to get worried.
World food stocks are on there lowest levels since 40 years already.
Prices could change over night and we all know who in the end will pay the price for that.
http://www.msnbc.msn.com/id/22902512/
” Pauls (23:37:06) :
I think he’s looking at the bigger satellite temp picture, like a decade http://www.woodfortrees.org/plot/rss/from:1999/plot/rss/from:1999/trend
Last night on Channel 4 News (UK) we had a piece on the recent European Elections which featured what I considered a rather loaded use of the term Climate Change Denier in the context of the success of numerous right wing parties in the said elections.
The video is here
http://link.brightcove.com/services/player/bcpid1529573111?bclid=24557372001&bctid=25713265001
And the offending passage (as I see it) starts around 2m 50s with the nub of the issue around 4m 20s.
In Europe at any rate, this immediately creates in the mind an association between Climate Change Denier and “Holocaust Denier”. This was a bit much to my taste – so I phoned them up and complained. I was listened to politely, about all I can say, and told my comments would be passed on. I sent them a brief email – no reply as yet. I put the below comment on Jon Snows blog for the day; needless to say moderated away!
Jon,
Off topic but…. On last night’s C4N, Victoria MacDonald reported on the Euro-election results across continental Europe emphasising the right wing gains and the racist and homophobic views of some of the parties elected. In particular she drew attention to the Czech ODS and its founder Vaclav Klaus describing him as Europe’s leading Climate Change Denier. Does not the use of the term Climate Change Denier in this context strike you as highly prejudicial? By association in this context, the use of the term Climate Change Denier made it appear intellectually and morally equivalent to the term Holocaust Denier. I doubt in reality that there are any climate change deniers, even the noted Mr. Klaus, given that the climate changes which have taken place on planet Earth over geological and historical time are so well established. What is not well established are the IPCC’s predictions for the future evolution of the global average temperature, nor are the causes that lead to these predictions – the hypothesis that it is caused by CO2 release from the burning of fossil fuels. It is said that the science is done and a consensus has been reached. However, science does not work like that – it is not an election. Nobody voted on whether to accept Newton’s Laws or any other scientific theory. Science proceeds by developing theories from which predicted outcomes are then tested and the theory either verified or refuted. One test of the IPCC’s theories is under way by monitoring global temperatures, other theories with different predictions for the evolution of the global climate exist and are also being tested. It is entirely possible that a majority of scientists do agree with the IPCC, but that fact alone does not make them, or the IPCC right.
I think your correspondents should avoid the use of the term Climate Change Denier in future especially in the context of discussing right wing politics.
For a good review of other ways of looking at climate change see this
http://www.fraserinstitute.org/researchandpublications/publications/6628.aspx
Frank Lasner could find the above quite useful. After all the point is the jury is out and the verdict not yet returned.
John Egan (11:19:25) :
There are two far more likely reasons that grain production is down – –
1) Prices have plummeted
2) Very scarce credit during planting season
You apparently do not farm, or you would know that $6.65 wheat, $4.44 corn and $12+ soybeans is historically high. I’ve traveled from TX to NEB this year and every cropland acre was planted. Credit was not an issue. Wheat production is down because of the late season frost that caused USDA estimated 30% loss in TX, 40% loss in OK, and 25% loss in Kansas (weather not climate)(and to some degree dry planting conditions and low Aussie production). Corn production may be lower because of rain-delayed planting.
Why not use the period of the last solar cycle, roughly 12 yrs?
http://www.woodfortrees.org/plot/rss/from:1997/plot/rss/from:1997/trend
That wouldn’t be cherry picking, now, would it?
jh,
Channel 4 has been under pressure recently to accept funding from the taxpayer via the UK’s TV licence/tax/payupnoworgotojail. They have gone from independent to government lapdog.
As for a year without a summer; just go back to yesterday June 8, in the year 1783; just a coupla years prior to the Constitution I believe.
In the Eastern United States they experienced a winter average temperature that was 4.8 degrees Celsius below the basline long term average temperature.
On that date, the eruption of Laki volcano in Iceland began and continued for eight months.
Haze from the eruption travelled all the way to Syria, as well as reaching the United States.
It will be interesting to see what (if any) difference the UK Met Office’s new computer will make:
http://www.timesonline.co.uk/tol/news/weather/article6338014.ece
I’m not too encouraged that it’s still booting up, though, and will apparently need an upgrade before it works properly…
BTW, I wonder what Joe B makes of this:
http://www.weatheraction.com/displayarticle.asp?a=41&c=1
“”” Fiona Maddock (00:57:55) :
I like your site. Here in Berkshire UK it IS a cold June – not exceptionally so: temperatures will reach 16 centigrade today but it is overcast, damp and showery and this weather is set to stay for a week or so. Normally in UK we’d expect to be watching the exertions of the men on the cricket pitch whilst we sported sun hats and cooled ourselves with chilled strawberries and cream and not swathed in waterproofs scuttling from A to B between showers. Not so.
Would you care to comment on the recent tragic crash of the Airbus 300 (AF flight 447). It has been suggested that the weather had something to do with it …”unusual storm conditions” was the phrase the media used? Maybe it’s too early to comment but what concerns me is didn’t the departure airport know how bad the weather conditions were? Should the flight have been grounded? How much detail and over what distance of the flight path would the (any) departure airport have before its flights take off? Were other aircraft types flying similar routes at the same time? I think we need some input from the weather men here. I hope there will be some kind of memorial set up soon. Our hearts go out to the 228 deceased and their friends and families. “””
Fiona, all storm conditions are “unusual”. That means that most of the time we don’t have storm conditions, although there is likely to be some spot on earth that has storm conditions at some point in time.
And even when there are storm conditions there have always been unusual storm conditions, in that usually storms aren’t that severe; but now and then at some place or other you may get storm conditions that are unusual.
In the USA we have 50 year storms and 100 year storms, and even 150 year storms, with massive flooding and property destruction.
Usually 100 year storms happen about every seven or eight years or so; that’s long enough for everyone to forget the last one, so they can call the current one a 100 year storm; but usually we don’t get 100 year storms, except at odd times and places.
One special odd storm place seems to be the equatorial regions, since you have storms that rotate one way in the northern hemisphere, but the other way in the southern hemisphere, so right along the equatorial belt you can sometimes get a northern storm and a southern storm happenning together and adding up to a bigger storm right at the equator; but that isn’t usual either, and it usually doesn’t happen all around the equator at the same time, so it is unusual.
Also planes don’t take off from Rio de Janeiro all the time, so it is unusual for a plane to take off from Rio, and if they do, they don’t usually fly to Paris, although sometimes they might; and that means they have to cross the equatorial region where it is unusual to have tandem northern and southern storms. And that is way North of Brazil which is different from Argentina, where Rio is.
They don’t usually have weather stations out in the middle of the equatorial Atlantic ocean to monitor the weather even if it is unusual weather, and they certainly wouldn’t be telling Rio to not let any planes take off.
Airline pilots; even Air France airline pilots are trained to not fly through storms even if those storms are unusual; and usually they don’t do it.
In this case we don’t know what they did, which in itself is somewhat unusual; but it is usually a good bet to say that global warming or catastrophic climate change didn’t cause the crash, since it is unusual for airline planes to take 30 years to fly through the tropical storm zone near the equator.
So that would be a weather condition which usually has nothing to do with climate or climate change.
So i don’t think you have anything to worry about; since crashes of this type are somewhat unusual; so they are not harbingers of catastrophic climate change.
What sort of catastrophic climate change are you anticipating that might change your flight plans; if you had any ?
I think he’s looking at the bigger satellite temp picture, like a decade
“Like a decade”, my hat.
There was a severe El Nino in 1998. It was immediately followed by a severe La Nina, ending in 2001.
So include both “in” or include both “out’.
Starting anywhere in between (like in 1999) is — serious — cherrypicking.
“”” Mark T (12:14:16) :
John W. (11:04:39) :
I’m not sure a Kalman filter is the right approach, but now I’ll have to dig books and papers out to brush up on the technique and consider it.
It is an optimal estimation of the true mean for most symmetric distributions, and many others. In the “climate distribution,” the only true “noise” of course is measurement noise which is typically assumed to have a uniform distribution, for which a Kalman filter is again optimal. The issue with the Kalman filter, of course, is the same as with any smoothing procedure: what are the noise characteristics? “””
So what is the basis for assuming that climate variation is either symmetric or uniform in distribution ?
I know you say that is typically assumed; but on what basis is such a determination made.
After all, global energy fluxes tend to relate to the fourth power of global temperatures; which is highly non linear; so the upside, and the downside, are most unlikely to be symmetric.
And severe conditions of unusual warmth or cooling, are much more likely to follow a 1/f type of function regarding severity, or amplitude of anolmalies versus time; so I would not expect the distributions to be uniform either.
So given that climate variability is likely to be neither symmetric nor uniform; what would be the rationale for applying a Kalman filter; and doesn’t a Kalman filter imply some knowledge of the frequency of events being sought.
But who am I to stand in the way of science progress; try it out and see what you get.
OT:There is a new ONE PIXEL spot !! claiming for the Watts Effect to survive overnight. It has a number A small Cycle 24 sunspot was numbered 1020
http://www.solarcycle24.com
Frank Lansner (10:47:44) : SAID
“I need some OT help! And you guys are the best of the best to ask”
I am currently reviewing a new book by Peter Taylor who sometimes posts here. He seems to me to have a very good grasp of clouds.
His new book with various links is not available on his web site but this document-which seems to contain a lot of the information in the book-can be read here;
This first link is to the summary
http://www.ethos-uk.com/downloads/climate/ECSRSummary.pdf
The link below goes to the much more extensive full report. The information on clouds commences on page 48. I think figures 1 and 2 are quite powerful.
http://www.ethos-uk.com/downloads/climate/ECSR.pdf
Failing that the new book will have some more up to date information, so if the links above are not suitable why not email Peter and ask him if he can supply what you need?
Peters email address
peter.taylor@ethos-uk.com
This might also help
http://isccp.giss.nasa.gov/cloudtypes.html
Hope this is useful. Can you let me know you have read this post and then tell us all how you get on with the debate?
Good luck
Tonyb
“Putting the burning question to global-warming alarmists
Herald Sun ^ | 10th June 2009 | Andrew Bolt
STEVE Fielding has had a conversion that could blow apart the great global warming scare.
No wonder the Rudd Government is scrambling and the ABC is already sliming the Family First senator.
You see, Fielding has suddenly realised that global warming may not be caused by humans after all.”
http://www.freerepublic.com/focus/f-news/2268289/posts
Commenter says:
“Notice the “religious” nature of his decision: Four, five times it was described as a “conversion” (from the AGW “faith” of course!)”
This is how government and supermarket corporations plan to destroy independent farmers with carbon taxes to fight glo-bull warming
http://factsnotfantasy.blogspot.com/2009/06/taxing-cows.html
Not sure where this should go, but a good post on the weather surrounding the “D” day invasion would be interesting.
Hi Tony thankyou very much, i will let you know how it went, the television documentary. I Believe i already have your email from the discussion with Beck and Engel been?
K.R. Frank
Climate Change Politics and the Hibbert Peak No.1
http://news.bbc.co.uk/1/hi/world/europe/8090104.stm
wws (04:53:20) : ” . . . The mechanism you propose makes no sense.”
I did not see that anyone responded to your question. I don’t know what is happening now in Europe so cannot respond specifically. However, the mechanism being described is well known on a local scale as “land and sea breezes” and you can easily find explanations and examples. Here is one:
http://ww2010.atmos.uiuc.edu/(Gh)/guides/mtr/fw/sea/htg.rxml
As one scales up in the area covered more things have to be considered but you can start by examining some named winds of note, such as the Harmattan, Mistral, Sirocco and others.
David Walton (23:49:14) :
Re: Accuweather in general and Joe Bastardi in particular have an excellent reputation with the investing crowd.
Half baked baloney from a trash talking simpleton. E.M.Smith, try doing science instead of spin.
David – In the absence of evidence – reach for the ad-homs – eh?
“try doing science instead of spin”.
Perhaps you could use your available scientific resources and methods to engage with the actual physical evidence and explain why the following graph shows cooling over the last few years – none of which has been predicted by the UN IPCC or Climate Models.
(Thanks Frank Lansner for the link)
http://www.klimadebat.dk/forum/vedhaeftninger/glotempmay092.gif
AZScott (21:56:30) :
As an AZ native of 34 years, this weather does not happen here.
Well, AZ, you haven’t lived there long enough, I guess.
I have memories (and photos) of being at the Grand Canyon the first week of June, 1962, and being snowed on.
We also have fun in the snow in Bryce and Zion canyons earlier that week.