excerpts:
From Joe’s European Weather Blog:
The current unseasonable cold across northwest Europe is not the only place where the arctic hound is calling as yet another blast of reality gets lobbed into the base camp of agenda driven warmingistas, who of course refuse to see anything that could possibly challenge their false idols. I will not say that the cold that has been occurring is a sign an ice age it is on the way, but it is a sign that people worldwide had better wake up to the idea that the “science is in” crowd does not want them to see facts.
First of all, cries out of the U.S. government-based NOAA of “Here comes El Nino” are 5 months late to a party I starting throwing last winter. They are out of touch on this being a warm year unless of course they get to skew the data worldwide. The satellites which measure temps without instrument bias have been seeing the cooling. But here we find the private sector saying something 5 months before, and now the U.S. government mets are suddenly seeing it and issuing a) el nino watches and then b) taken the nonsensical step of saying we will have a hot time because of it. The El Nino is coming while the PDO is cold, and a winter more harsh than last year may be shaping up for Europe.
And from an AccuWeather article on lightning, Joe says parts of the US may have a year without a summer”:
According to Long Range Expert Joe Bastardi, areas from the northern Plains into the Northeast will have a “year without a summer.” The jet stream, which is suppressed abnormally south this spring, is also suppressing the number of thunderstorms that can form.
Yikes!
The NOAA Climate Prediction Center 8-14 day forecast says it is already shaping up to be a cold June:
and the 30 day CPC forecast here
Pearland Aggie (08:53:50) :
It happened 193 years ago, and it was thusly penned.
So too was the Vampyre written in that year by Lord Byron’s physician Dr. Polidori.
What’s being written today?
AGW Horror Stories.
Be afraid. Be very, very, afraid.
Officially, the period 2001AD – 4000AD is called the Age of Aquarius. What a strange name for an age of death. Perhaps the Age of Cerberus would be more apt?
Flanagan (07:05:14) :
Well, the post is about a recent cooling, isn’t it? This is why I posted a recent trend. Actually, any trend over a relatively acceptable period gives warming.
Sure. Just as any trend over a “relatively acceptable period” could show cooling. http://www.woodfortrees.org/plot/rss/from:1998/plot/rss/from:1998/trend
Which is why generating a linear trend for cyclic phenomena is nothing more than a peculiar form of mathematical [self pleasuring].
Do you know what a sine wave looks like? Can you figure out what the linear trend is over a “relatively acceptable period?” Can you understand why the linear trend gives you 0 (zero) information about the value of the signal or where it’s going?
If we on this blog behaved as you and the rest of the AGW crowd, we’d be predicting a “Snowball Earth” by 2100.
REPLY: With his post Flanagan has now lost the right to accuse others of cherry picking, since his was most extreme. Anytime he does so here, just refer back to that post of his in replies. – Anthony
I’ve been in northern San Diego County for five years now. This spring is without question the coolest I’ve ever experienced. We haven’t had a full day of sun for nearly two weeks. They are predicting showers today, which is rare for June. When I was living in San Francisco, they spoke annually of June gloom, which is when the fog comes in for days or weeks at a time. Well, June gloom is happening here for the first time since I moved down.
Gary Pearse-Huh? What gives you the impression that I am not skeptical of both long term models and seasonal models? I read about how these things work, and I have little confidence in them. That isn’t an “angry sound bite” and I’m not a “believer” anyway. Jeez.
John Egan-I always thought he cut off part of it first, then more later? No?
Why weather matters:
June 1st US wheat forecast:
“Winter wheat production is forecast at 1.50 billion bushels, down 20 percent from 2008. Based on May 1 conditions, the U.S. yield is forecast at 44.2 bushels per acre, down 3.0 bushels from last year.”
Down 20% and the only the crickets are singing about it.
Corn?
Date: 29-May-09
Country: US
Author: Mark Weinraub – Analysis
CHICAGO – Planting delays in key areas of the U.S. Corn Belt this spring could lead to tight supplies of corn during the next year, forcing prices higher and further threatening profit margins at ethanol plants and livestock companies.
The slow pace of corn planting east of the Mississippi River, including major production states such as Illinois and Indiana, could cut ending stocks by as much as 35 percent, according to Joe Victor, analyst for Illinois-based research company Allendale Inc.
“Our biggest concern right now is we do believe that USDA will have no choice (but) to reduce yield for the entire Midwest, reduce the planted acres (and) send stocks under 1 billion bushels,” Victor said. “Worst case scenario, maybe we get end stocks … more close to 750 to 800 million bushels.”
Watch that space as we near harvest time. Rising food prices in the middle of a severe recession? You can say good bye to the “recovery”.
gary gulrud (06:22:13) :
“Corn and ethanol here, as well as Canadian wheat, look to have an off year. ”
makes me wonder about rising gas prices as well.
also, should we be using corn for ethanol when we may have an off year as well for corn for food.
I agree with Caleb. I’ve been an Accuweather Pro subscriber for several years. JB is great at forecasting future trends and more far often than not, gets it right. When he is wrong, he admits it with no excuses, even re-posting his original, wrong prediction.
His singing though, … not so good! 🙂
Basil (07:29:16) :
Since climate, and temperatures especially, are hardly linear processes, fitting a linear line through data like you did is hardly “the big picture.” A more realistic view of the “big picture”:
http://i39.tinypic.com/o8xy5i.jpg
Indeed, using a line for any cyclical or, more likely, chaotic process says a lot about the understanding of the person that uses it. The “best” method is to apply a Kalman filter (or one of the variants) which results in something similar to your picture here. The Kalman is optimal (MMSE, ML, MAP) for most practical noise distributions. The “trend” is meaningless without a true understanding of the underlying function.
John W. (09:13:50) :
Which is why generating a linear trend for cyclic phenomena is nothing more than a peculiar form of mathematical [self pleasuring].
Yup. But, as you noted, pick some other time in the past, and we’re all headed for the deep freeze (well, we may be, actually, because another ice age is likely).
Mark
You can say good bye to the “recovery”.
With construction, oil(as ew-3 mentions) which kicked the bottom out of our subprime house of cards, and now farmers, we are definitely headed beyond Carter-era 11% unemployment. Next, rising interest rates kick foreclosures and bankruptcies up another notch. This is a very bad cycle we’ve entered, 18 months into a recession.
rbateman (09:11:02) :
I suppose I should have been more specific–I meant I’m skeptical of those that would use such an over-the-top phrase to predict the future or describe today’s events, not to deny that there was a very cold period in the early 1800s that was described as “the year without a summer.” I think we should be very careful with the language we use to describe the current cooling lest we close minds and ears with overhyped rhetoric. It seems very unlikely to me that the planet will descend into catastrophic warming or cooling in the near future and use of such language may relegate the skeptic community to “kook” status just like the pro-AGWers, regardless of whether or not the data supports our belief. Sorry if I caused any confusion…
timetochooseagain (22:24:51) :
I wouldn’t take those seasonal models to seriously. My understanding is that they have poor performance.
timetochooseagain
It depends on who makes them!
For examüle: The seasonal prognoses for the last winter made by Joseph D’Aleo and published in the Old Farmers Almanac were spot on.
The forecasts made by any Weater Organization cooperating with the World Meteorogical Organization (UN) only sell AGW BS.
There motto is to predict warm summers and warm winters and get it right when a warm winter or a warm summer actually happens.
I need some OT help! And you guys are the best of the best to ask:
I have been chosen to participate on national Danish TV in “Denmark Radio” in a documentary with one pro and one contra AGW. This is to be broadcasted in connection with the Copenhagen meetings. The pro AGW is a Professor from Denmarks Technical University, so this is slightly challenging, and im definetyly taking a change by accepting.
I just have one question, that i need some input on:
Solar theory.
I believe the connection between solar activity vs. low cloud cover is rather well documented:
http://www.newscientist.com/data/images/ns/cms/dn11651/dn11651-2_738.jpg
http://members.shaw.ca/sch25/FOS/SvensmarkLowCloudComicRaySMALL.jpg
http://members.shaw.ca/sch25/FOS/SvensmarkCosmicRay1700small.jpg
What i need is the best possible link between low cloud cover and global temperatures.
What graphic/article/knowledge is available in a form that can be used on TV in the brief time i have?
If there is indeed no link, thats nice to know too…
Very very sorry Anthony for OT, hope you can forgive me.
K.R. Frank Lansner
Recording for television will take place in 36 hours from now…
Anthony,
Did you kill my post?
Which one of these time periods is acceptable? Cycles within cycles within cycles…
Or is it more correctly stated that, “Any trend over a period that shows relative warming is acceptable”?
John Finn (03:40:05) :
Surely this is the bigger picture …..
How about a graph from the MWP? An even bigger picture? Or from the Roman Optimum? Or from the last 10000 years? What would you consider a suitable trend?
Mark T (10:16:41) :
Indeed, using a line for any cyclical or, more likely, chaotic process says a lot about the understanding of the person that uses it. The “best” method is to apply a Kalman filter (or one of the variants) which results in something similar to your picture here. The Kalman is optimal (MMSE, ML, MAP) for most practical noise distributions. The “trend” is meaningless without a true understanding of the underlying function.
I’m not sure a Kalman filter is the right approach, but now I’ll have to dig books and papers out to brush up on the technique and consider it.
Curse you! 8^)
Frank Lasner. For television i would reccommend charts that show the actual temperatures for Central England, with a relatively small scale, rather than anomalies, which make temps look to swing wildly. The decade to decade swings should be apparent, and the current temps. would not be particularly troubling. fm
This is a bit off the forecasting topic, but I simply have to comment on the ‘news’ item that preceded Joe Bastardi’s interview, namely the report by the American Academy of Pediatrics. This report claims that children will suffer more from global warming than adults, citing an inability to physically cope with the warmer conditions.
Since the expected warming of roughly 3 degrees C over the next 100 years would be equivalent to moving about 150 miles towards the equator (in the mid-latitudes), should not the AAP be warning parents about the dangers of such moves? Certainly an instant move of 150 miles to the south would be much more climatologically traumatic then moving just 1.5 miles south each year (the average impact of the forecast climate change), yet the AAP remains silent on this seemingly vital and deadly problem of the Equatorial Relocation of Minors (EROM) while promoting the much less serious issue of AGW!
If gradual global warming (which isn’t even happening), over the course of 100 years, is really a threat to minors, than parents guilty of EROM should be immediately arrested!
Personally, I am one of the lucky ones. Many years ago, I relocated nearly 200 miles south with two small children. Not only did my kids physically survive the abrupt climate change of roughly three degrees, they seemed to thrive. Additionally, they did not seem to be psychologically effected by the climate change, even though it took place over the course of 4 hours and not the 100 years; the psychological trauma induced change the pediatricians are so concerned about.
Even more amazing is that they also survived many trips to the pediatrician’s office. If pediatricians are really stupid enough to buy into such a ridicules report, then our children are much more physically at risk at the doctor’s office than they are at risk from climate change. There is also no doubt that the constant fear mongering in the news is much more psychologically damaging to our children than an imperceptible climate change. The AAP should be warning parents about the AAP!
There are two far more likely reasons that grain production is down – –
1) Prices have plummeted
2) Very scarce credit during planting season
rtgr (01:07:00) :
It is true that a cold period in June is not unusual in northern Europe (in Sweden it is called “järnnätterna”, the Iron Nights), but this year it is anything but normal, cold records are falling right left and center in Sweden.
Most remarkable is a new cold record for June for Västervik on the Baltic Coast (-0.1 degrees centigrade). Västervik has an unbroken temperature record since the 1850’s and the former record was from the legendarily cold and wet year 1867, when Sweden had its last actual famine.
SteveSadlov (09:11:18) :
Officially, the period 2001AD – 4000AD is called the Age of Aquarius.
“When the moon is in the seventh house,
and Jupiter is aligned with Mars,
then peace will guide the planets…”
Aquarius..aquarius
Pearland Aggie (10:21:35) I think that you’re spot on. Hyperbole does not serve the skeptical position any more than the alarmist. Blaming everything from the death spiral of the arctic to toe fungus on global warming has obviously lost the warmista movement considerable credibility. It is a good lesson to take to heart.
I know it doesn’t prove anything, but my boat just sits there this summer. No hot nights when a cool drive and maybe a dip beckon. I haven’t been fishing yet, since it is just too cold for me to enjoy. Our peak summer is about six weeks centered on July 4th, which is pretty much here, and… nothing.