excerpts:
From Joe’s European Weather Blog:
The current unseasonable cold across northwest Europe is not the only place where the arctic hound is calling as yet another blast of reality gets lobbed into the base camp of agenda driven warmingistas, who of course refuse to see anything that could possibly challenge their false idols. I will not say that the cold that has been occurring is a sign an ice age it is on the way, but it is a sign that people worldwide had better wake up to the idea that the “science is in” crowd does not want them to see facts.
First of all, cries out of the U.S. government-based NOAA of “Here comes El Nino” are 5 months late to a party I starting throwing last winter. They are out of touch on this being a warm year unless of course they get to skew the data worldwide. The satellites which measure temps without instrument bias have been seeing the cooling. But here we find the private sector saying something 5 months before, and now the U.S. government mets are suddenly seeing it and issuing a) el nino watches and then b) taken the nonsensical step of saying we will have a hot time because of it. The El Nino is coming while the PDO is cold, and a winter more harsh than last year may be shaping up for Europe.
And from an AccuWeather article on lightning, Joe says parts of the US may have a year without a summer”:
According to Long Range Expert Joe Bastardi, areas from the northern Plains into the Northeast will have a “year without a summer.” The jet stream, which is suppressed abnormally south this spring, is also suppressing the number of thunderstorms that can form.
Yikes!
The NOAA Climate Prediction Center 8-14 day forecast says it is already shaping up to be a cold June:
and the 30 day CPC forecast here
The colder weather in Europe is a normal thing and hase no infuence on the summer. because of heat building up in spring the atmosphere can’t handel it wich cause a low presure area on the continent of Europe. West of Europe you get a high presure area. The result is wind blowing from the much colder regions. Its comen for this to happen in June. But there is more going on this year. The jet stream is in the last 7 monts more offen going to the south than north. today I looked at a jet stream map and it was laying over spain. making it easy for low presure areas to go over the continent.
this link showes you the jetstream:
http://www.wunderground.com/data/640×480/2xeu_jt.gif
I can attest that so far in Central PA, it’s been a “year without a Summer”. I mean, other than the obvious fact that Summer only starts on June 21st (technically). 🙂
But we have had a number of cool days, lots of clouds, lots of rain, and generally poor growing conditions. I am being given the one-two punch this year, being both a solar energy contractor and a food producer. Both rely on the sun, and it has been conspicuously absent this year to date.
rgtr wrote: “This weather patern occurs because Europe`s mainland is warming up fast, but the ocean is still relatifly cold, causing a drop in pressure above the mainland, so that colder air from west /northwest flows into europe.”
How does the mainland heat up while the air is still cold and the region is cloud covered? And of course, as you state, the ocean is still relatively cold? The mechanism you propose makes no sense.
Joe:
“The current unseasonable cold across northwest Europe is not the only place where the arctic hound is calling as yet another blast of reality gets lobbed into the base camp of agenda driven warmingistas, who of course refuse to see anything that could possibly challenge their false idols.”
False idols? Idol worship explains the behavior whic I couple with sorcery.
We see clearly some emotional activity that was before called astrology. A lot of disclaimers and vague assertions just in case they are wrong.
On June 7th, Buffalo, Wyoming broke both its record lowest High temp and record lowest Low temp. The readings for June 7, 2009 were 41 and 32. The previous records were 46 and 33. It is rare for a single day to break both records – especially in late spring and summer. If one has a low high, it is because of overcasr/wet weather; thus, the low will be moderated. If there is a record low, it is usually because of clear, cold weather which will result in a sunny day.
Not only was 41 degrees a record low High for June 7th, it was a record low High for the entire month of June. A look around Wyoming and Montana would likely show similar data throughout the Northern Rockies. Weather not climate? Yes. But climate is a collection of weather observations over time. And there have been plenty of observations of late that AGW climate models are flawed.
Pofarmer
Year without a summer was 1816, the year Frankenstein was written. Combination of a cool period (Dalton minimum) and Mt Tambora blowing in 1815. In UK, 1814 was colder than 1816 (CET) so volcano not totally to blame.
Tax and control everything that exists and then apply retrotaxes on factories for having created vehicles, infrastructure and jobs in the first place!
http://news.bbc.co.uk/1/hi/sci/tech/8089722.stm
I tell you, I can see blood being spilled over this attempt to takeover, control and tax everything. It will only take a certain number of job losses to happen before the unemployed take to the streets and only a few of them need to get mad enough to assassinate any politician, journalist or activist who promoted these ideas in the first place.
(I am not advocating it, just saying)
For those on the blog who are weather nuts, I would highly recommend getting subscription to Accuwx pro – daily postings from Joe B included. No one works harder than Joe, as far as I can tell. He is obsessed with getting it right (not that he always does, but he will give you some great insights).
“David Walton (23:49:14) :
Half baked baloney from a trash talking simpleton. E.M.Smith, try doing science instead of spin.
timetochooseagain (22:24:51) :
I wouldn’t take those seasonal models to seriously. My understanding is that they have poor performance.”
In the last few cooling years, the rhetoric from the faithful has been reduced to grumpy, short “sound bytes”. There is no scientific countering of issues taken with the CO2 and warming. Why don’t they try doing science instead of spin? Why would modellers who are happy with predictions 100years hence be remarking on the poor performance of weather model predictions one month hence? The biggest problem of having the science all settled and done is well trained scientists are relegated to standing guard and parrying scientific questioning with insults. One reason the tide is beginning to turn and there are signs of desperation in the post scientific era of the consensus is that the wise ones among them realize that the only science being done is by those outside the consensus. The reason this blog is both the most popular of all the climate science sites (and the most pilloried by the “science is done” philistines whose contribution here is like that of an electronic virus) is that science is not settled. It is alive and exciting whichever way it takes us. The fact that this blog is open to the AGW side and they haven’t brought to bear their scientific might, makes one even more convinced that they’ve got it all wrong.
“Van Gough had many a summer without an ear.”
Ah, monsieur – but WUWT is a website devoted to accuracy.
Vincent van Gogh lost his ear in December of 1888.
He died in July of 1890.
Thus, van Gogh had only ONE entire summer without an ear.
(Not to mention that it was just the earlobe that he lost)
@Flanagan
Or since 2007?
http://www.woodfortrees.org/plot/rss/from:2006.9/plot/rss/from:2006.9/trend
Nice cherry picking. Anyone can do it.
Hmmm … the 8-14 day forecast shows over half the country to be at normal or above normal temps (Alaska is part of the US).
The 30-day map of the lower 48 shows over half the region to be warmer or at “equal chance above, below, or normal”.
The Gore Effect has disappeared from Wikipedia again, probably taken down by one of the cults that rule the roost on the Encyclopedia *anyone* can edit
Raven (01:08:19) :
Joe Bastardi reminds me of Nouriel Roubini
Priceless.
On Bastardi’s “NOAA late to the party”:
Central MN and south, in sharp contrast to the north, has been cool and dry this spring. Just had a couple days of drizzle and lower 50’s temps.
NOAA says we received 1-1.5 inches when our total was less than 0.5 inches after the driest May since 1934.
Corn and ethanol here, as well as Canadian wheat, look to have an off year. Soy in this area also seems late into the ground needing higher temps for germination.
To the north last year’s corn is still in the field; too much moisture then and now to get into the fields.
With PDO & AMO negative farming on the margin will require agility.
smallz79 (01:33:41) :
Unfortunately, main stream media (MSM) has their chips on the AGW bet line and will be very slow to cover the current reality. Not so many years ago the comment by Chris Wood (01:26:52) would seem to be extreme, but one has to ask is it poor journalism and reporting turned entertainment (for impact and ratings only) or is it agenda driven ?
OT… On Fox News this AM… New farm animal fart tax in USA… $175 for ea dairy cow $80 for each meat cow and $20 for each pig… I seem to recall that New Zealand’s put the kibosh on this vaporous tax… How did they do it? Maybe we need a good old fashioned cattle drive in the streets and offices in DC. Get ready for $8 milk and $10 Big Macs. The crazies have their panties in a wad again.
Maybe a fun post with appropriate cow fart jokes?
Summer without ears??
Pretty corny!
(sorry)
Bob Tisdale. You wrote most models are predicting a moderate El Nino. I believe those are the ” dynamic ” models. I believe the ” statistical ” models are predicting ” neutral “. Something i noticed at the NCDC weekly Enso update. fm
Adam in Kansas has asked which models, ( statistical, or dynamic), are more accurate. I have no idea. Perhaps Bob Tisdale or Bill Illis know. IMHO, dynamic implies the modeler is able to tweek the prediction based on an underlying comprehension of relative forcings. fm
Well, the post is about a recent cooling, isn’t it? This is why I posted a recent trend. Actually, any trend over a relatively acceptable period gives warming.
My meaning was to show that satellite temperatures are so fluctuating that they’re not really useful for short-term trends.
Chris Wood (01:26:52) :
Leon Brozyna- Not hysteria but a deliberate agenda to close down capitalism and stop
globalisation, encouraged by left wing governments which are seizing the opportunity to impose higher taxes and tighten their grip on the public.
Not sure what you mean here by the left trying to “stop globalization.” In political circles, globalization is something I associate with the left, trying to make the whole world over into one mold (think here “one world government” for a particularly paranoid view of “globalization”). Perhaps you mean “global economy.” Even that isn’t necessarily a goal of the left, to stop a global economy. Think, here, of the controversy over a North American trade union. Globalization of anything is probably antithetical to freedom, except the globalization of a democratic ideal. But how that ideal gets realized has to be left up to local choices and influences, or we are back to the authoritarian imposition of one region’s values on another.
Another example: where did the impetus for the European Union come from? The right, or the left? How’s that working out for freedom? The US was a unique, and for a long time successful, experiment as a national union precisely because of the diversity it enabled in how we govern ourselves at the state level. As “federalism” (an awkward term which today refers to what used to be called “states rights”) gives way to a national union dominated by the Federal government, we’re becoming a “globalized” polity on a national scale.
There is very little good I associate with the word “globalization.” Perhaps others have a different perspective. I wouldn’t insist on globalizing my understanding. 😉
Hold yer Palominos!
‘Year without a summer’ is not Joe B’s phrase (see his column today, if you are a subscriber to AccuWeather Pro), and it’s a bit over the top. What Bastardi has been saying for a few months now is that with a developing Nino in ENSO 3, 4 in the context of a negative PDO and an extended solar minimum, there is the possibility of a top 5 cold summer in the Great Lakes and Upper Mississippi Valley.
Glorious t-storm passed through my backyard (three miles from Newark Airport) about 4:00 this morning with a concerto for fortissimo thunder and car alarms. Half an inch of rain in fifteen minutes!
John Finn (03:40:05) :
Pauls (23:37:06) :
Flanagan, I suspect he’s looking at the bigger picture
Click Here
Surely this is the bigger picture …..
http://www.woodfortrees.org/plot/rss/from:1979/plot/rss/from:1979/trend
Since climate, and temperatures especially, are hardly linear processes, fitting a linear line through data like you did is hardly “the big picture.” A more realistic view of the “big picture”:
http://i39.tinypic.com/o8xy5i.jpg
There has been “recent cooling” and only those who willfully close their eyes to that fact can fail to see it. Serious questions do remain:
What has caused it?
How long will it last?
What does it imply (if anything) about AGW?
And reasonable minds can differ over how those questions are answered. But to deny the cooling itself is to remove oneself from the discourse of rational minds.
Flanagan. ” Relatively acceptable” ? To who ? …fm
It would be interesting to know whether the Department of Homeland Security
(which may turn out to be the most baleful legacy of Bush 43) has a scenario for persisting cold. Planting was late this year in the Upper Midwest, which means, presumably, thet harvest will be later than normal. What if there is a cold fall and an early freeze? What would that do to food prices?
Also, with petroleum up to 70 bucks the barrel, and the cap-and-trade tax on top of that, what would an abnormally cold winter in the populous Great Lakes and Northeast do the heating bills? I’m not talking Dalton Minimum here, just a winter as brutal as those of the late 1970’s.