excerpts:
From Joe’s European Weather Blog:
The current unseasonable cold across northwest Europe is not the only place where the arctic hound is calling as yet another blast of reality gets lobbed into the base camp of agenda driven warmingistas, who of course refuse to see anything that could possibly challenge their false idols. I will not say that the cold that has been occurring is a sign an ice age it is on the way, but it is a sign that people worldwide had better wake up to the idea that the “science is in” crowd does not want them to see facts.
First of all, cries out of the U.S. government-based NOAA of “Here comes El Nino” are 5 months late to a party I starting throwing last winter. They are out of touch on this being a warm year unless of course they get to skew the data worldwide. The satellites which measure temps without instrument bias have been seeing the cooling. But here we find the private sector saying something 5 months before, and now the U.S. government mets are suddenly seeing it and issuing a) el nino watches and then b) taken the nonsensical step of saying we will have a hot time because of it. The El Nino is coming while the PDO is cold, and a winter more harsh than last year may be shaping up for Europe.
And from an AccuWeather article on lightning, Joe says parts of the US may have a year without a summer”:
According to Long Range Expert Joe Bastardi, areas from the northern Plains into the Northeast will have a “year without a summer.” The jet stream, which is suppressed abnormally south this spring, is also suppressing the number of thunderstorms that can form.
Yikes!
The NOAA Climate Prediction Center 8-14 day forecast says it is already shaping up to be a cold June:
and the 30 day CPC forecast here
“Half baked baloney from a trash talking simpleton. E.M.Smith, try doing science instead of spin.”
A marvelously rational scientific statement!
APE (21:45:37) :
small typo thats year not ear without a summer
I think the warmista are aiming to have a summer without ears. They certainly don’t like hearing about June snows.
I like your site. Here in Berkshire UK it IS a cold June – not exceptionally so: temperatures will reach 16 centigrade today but it is overcast, damp and showery and this weather is set to stay for a week or so. Normally in UK we’d expect to be watching the exertions of the men on the cricket pitch whilst we sported sun hats and cooled ourselves with chilled strawberries and cream and not swathed in waterproofs scuttling from A to B between showers. Not so.
Would you care to comment on the recent tragic crash of the Airbus 300 (AF flight 447). It has been suggested that the weather had something to do with it …”unusual storm conditions” was the phrase the media used? Maybe it’s too early to comment but what concerns me is didn’t the departure airport know how bad the weather conditions were? Should the flight have been grounded? How much detail and over what distance of the flight path would the (any) departure airport have before its flights take off? Were other aircraft types flying similar routes at the same time? I think we need some input from the weather men here. I hope there will be some kind of memorial set up soon. Our hearts go out to the 228 deceased and their friends and families.
Anthony, these are another chilling news for the soon chilling world. Coming from the tropics and just north of the equator, the situation is not different from us here in the Philippines. Thick clouds or rains everyday for almost 2 weeks now, except last Saturday. The local tourism sector is affected. Many people stay in the cities and dont go out of town because of fear of flooding in some roads.
cold weather between 5 and 20 june is a normal phenomenon in NW Europe esspecially in germany and the netherlands . its called schafskälte or sheepherder cold
in this cool and rainy period sheepherders shave their sheep so they dont get burned by the sun.
Its also called European monsoon. This weather patern occurs because Europe`s mainland is warming up fast, but the ocean is still relatifly cold, causing a drop in pressure above the mainland, so that colder air from west /northwest flows into europe
Joe Bastardi reminds me of Nouriel Roubini:
.
“On Sept. 7, 2006, Nouriel Roubini, an economics professor at New York University, stood before an audience of economists at the International Monetary Fund and announced that a crisis was brewing. In the coming months and years, he warned, the United States was likely to face a once-in-a-lifetime housing bust, an oil shock, sharply declining consumer confidence and, ultimately, a deep recession.”
.
http://www.nytimes.com/2008/08/17/magazine/17pessimist-t.html
This quote from the article had me howling and seeing the parallel
When the economist Anirvan Banerji delivered his response to Roubini’s talk, he noted that *Roubini’s predictions did not make use of mathematical models* and dismissed his hunches as those of a career naysayer.
Leon Brozyna- Not hysteria but a deliberate agenda to close down capitalism and stop
globalisation, encouraged by left wing governments which are seizing the opportunity to impose higher taxes and tighten their grip on the public.
Can we get a link to news cast? I searched fox quickly I may missed it
Well, if you go to NCDC’s monthly temperature data site, you will find the following:
1. May was very much warmer than normal in the SW USA.
2. For the year to date, only one state in the extreme northern mid-west is below the 1971 – 2000 average, whereas most of the SW is above normal and the extreme SW (Arizona, New Mexico and Nevada) very much above normal. The rest of the country is around normal.
So I guess a cool June in the SW might just start to even up the score……….
Or is it just a blog? When will someone talk about it on the news? This is rediculous. Blogs are fine, but they do not reach far wide like the good ol’ TV/Radio, that by the way I watch very sparingly. I like to see things in print, but for the sake of arguing it would be nice to see something that has aired on public TV. Any that is my OT spiel(spell check)
Flanagan (22:39:49) :
For non-cherry picking analysis of long term temperature changes and their relationship to carbon dioxide, take a look at this:
http://www.climate4you.com/ClimateReflections.htm#20080927:%20Reflections%20on%20the%20correlation%20between%20global%20temperature%20and%20atmospheric%20CO2
I blame Mt Redoubt.
Re rbateman (23:04:05)
1816 was profoundly affected by the Plinian erruption of Tambora, of 10th April 1815, which lopped some 5,000 feet off the top of the mountain.
The intensity was some 4X that of Krakatau’s famed 1883 erruption.
Global temperatures dropped by 0.3C-0.5C the following summer.
I remember the big lightning we used to have 50 years ago in California. This year I am finally seeing the return of that. I wonder if there is historical data kept on big lightning storms?
Oh, an interesting chart on Wiki.
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/File:Greenland_sulfate.png
Shows the 1816-17 spike in sulphate particles, produced by Tambora, in the Greenland ice from http://www.agu.org/pubs/crossref/1991/91JD01634.shtml
from Dai et al, 1991.
Also shows a spike of similar amplitude, in 1810, from an unknown eruption, probably one of the remote, Andean, volcanos was responsible for that.
A “double -whammy” (Maybe triple, combined with the low solar activity?)
Two years ago in Kabul, Afghanistan the June temps hovered around 33°C.
Last year June hovered around 31°C.
Forecast through about 17 June we’re looking at about 27°C. Still getting rain…very unusual. Still snow in the higher elevations west of the city.
Today a lovely 24°C. I’ll enjoy it while I can.
pkatt: You wrote, “El nino is 5 overlapping seasons at or above +.5 .. Considering it hasnt even gone positive yet, and 4 out of 5 of the last ’seasons’ were La Nina conditions broken only by this last one at -0.1, isn’t it a little soon to be crowing about a El Nino this year?”
That’s for an El Nino to be considered “official” on ONI. Equatorial Pacific SST anomalies, however, have been working their way toward El Nino conditions. NINO3.4 SST anomalies (OI.v2 SST) have been positive for 6 weeks, though they haven’t crossed the threshold of 0.5 deg C yet. And most models are predicting a moderate El Nino for the 2009/10 season. Are the model predictions right? Sometimes.
There were several ‘years without a summer’ during the 14th century in Northern Europe. This led to widespread famine. The wether was wet and cold for many of the sumer months. For more information on this interesting century see Barbar Tuchmann ‘s ‘A distant Mirror’. This was the end of the medieval warm period.
If Joe B is right, what is the impact, if any, on the Canada + USA grain harvest this year?
Down by 10%, 20%, 30% or more?
Has Joe’s prediction had any effect on grain futures yet?
Place your bets, ladies and gentlemen, faites vos jeux.
“..ear without a summer”. Van Gough had many a summer without an ear.
Pauls (23:37:06) :
Flanagan, I suspect he’s looking at the bigger picture
Click Here
Surely this is the bigger picture …..
http://www.woodfortrees.org/plot/rss/from:1979/plot/rss/from:1979/trend
Flanagan (22:39:49),
You forfeit credibility when you use woodfortrees as an authoritative citation. It is the ultimate cherry-picking site — you can make a graph that shows anything at all.
I use WFT myself occasionally to verify facts for my own interest. It’s a fun site that lets a user create instant graphs. But as the authoritative source in your posted comment, all it shows is that you’ve lost the argument. Sort of like using the extremely biased Wikipedia to validate your runaway global warming arguments.
JLKrueger (02:18:24) :
Be careful over there JL… And enjoy the weather.
Here is the post I had on the accuweather,com pro site around 10 days ago
IS THIS A TOP 5 COLD SUMMER IN THE MAKING IN THE LAKES AND UPPER MISSISSIPPI
VALLEY.
Perhaps. The cold PDO is always a notorious threat for a core of cool
near the lakes, but other items have developed here that suggest that
we are off to a good start for that, a cool June. While it
certainly can turn around, the developing nino is not
favorable for that with a cold PDO. What happens is that this keeps
trying to push more than normal energy into the southern branch,
and with enough northern branch still around from the departing
colder signal, one sees the squeeze play on southern ridges. If one
looks closely at the ridge forecasted next week in the south, its
a ridge, but not with above normal heights. In other words, its there
because of what is going on around it, not because its there because
a major ridge position is there. The natural feedback in the
rockies as the summer heats up should pull the ridge back to
west again, and as the new affects of the neg SOI come east,
an eastern trough is liable to develop next week into the week after.
As you can see, the simplified version on the public site is really the tip of the iceberg at best. for the record, The UKMET and I are singing Cumbaya on the
Euro summer as I think much of eastern and central Europe is hot this summer, but
the winter could be alot of fun for lovers over colder and snowier weather.
Please remember that a public site as accuweather.com is, is not the same as
the complextities and the story I am weaving for our prosubscribers. For instance
you el nino neh sayers, its already here. Take a look at what has happened to the
Indian monsoon! Same as 2006 and same as all el nino years, it has crashed
in June. The past does have something to do with the future
ciao
JB
Wow…what a flip. Just a month or so ago the west was in for a warm summer to….I swear over the past few year NOAA has had quite the warm bias in the east and south when it comes to summer…sheesh…they need to get their facts straight.