Catlin Artic Ice Survey: An Annie Hall Moment

Guest post by Steven Goddard
http://img2.timeinc.net/ew/dynamic/imgs/080424/annie-hall_l.jpg
In Woody Allen’s classic 1977 movie “Annie Hall,” there is a wonderful scene in a theatre queue where he is having a heated argument with a Columbia University academic about the meaning of Marshall McLuhan’s writing.  His opponent is getting quite agitated, so Woody Allen pulls Marshall McLuhan out from behind a sign to prove his point.

Man in Theatre Line: Oh, really? Well, it just so happens I teach a class at Columbia called “TV, Media and Culture.” So I think my insights into Mr. McLuhan, well, have a great deal of validity!

Woody Allen: Oh, do ya? Well, that’s funny, because I happen to have Mr. McLuhan right here, so, so, yeah, just let me…

[pulls McLuhan out from behind a nearby poster]

Woddy Allen: come over here for a second… tell him!

Marshall McLuhan: I heard what you were saying! You know nothing of my work! You mean my whole fallacy is wrong. How you got to teach a course in anything is totally amazing!

Woody Allen: Boy, if life were only like this!

Sometimes life is like that.  Pen Hadow has been reported to be telling the press some interesting things this week :

Arctic explorer Pen Hadow has warned that the polar ice cap he has been examining to gauge the extent of climate change appears far thinner than expected after trekking more than 250 miles to the North Pole

and from the Catlin Web Site :

Expedition Leader Pen Hadow revealed that initial Survey results show the average ice thickness in the region to be 1.774m.

Fortunately, there is an expert standing behind the sign.  The Alfred Wegener Institute for Polar and Marine Research has just completed a much more expansive investigation of Arctic Ice, and yes they did actually make it to the North Pole – the old fashioned way – in an airplane.  Below is the original German text and the Google translation :
At the North Pole ice sheet is thicker than expected
Das Forschungsflugzeug “Polar 5” beendet am Dienstag in Kanada seine jüngste Arktis-Expedition.

The research aircraft Polar 5 “ended on Tuesday in Canada’s recent Arctic expedition.
Bei dem Flug haben Forscher die aktuelle Eisstärke am Nordpol gemessen, und zwar in Gebieten, die nie zuvor überflogen worden sind.
During the flight, researchers have Eisstärke the current measured at the North Pole, and in areas that have never before been overflown.
Das Ergebnis ist überraschend.
The result is surprising.
Das Meer-Eis in den untersuchten Gebieten ist offenbar dicker, als die Wissenschaftler vermutet hatten.
The sea-ice in the surveyed areas is apparently thicker than scientists had suspected.
Normalerweise sei neu gebildetes Eis nach zwei Jahren gut zwei Meter dick.
Normally, ice is newly formed after two years, over two meters thick.
“Hier wurden aber Eisdicken von bis zu vier Metern gemessen”, sagte ein Sprecher des Bremerhavener Alfred-Wegener-Instituts für Polar- und Meeresforschung.
“Here were Eisdicken up to four meters,” said a spokesman of Bremerhaven’s Alfred Wegener Institute for Polar and Marine Research.
Für die Wissenschaftler steht dieses Ergebnis derzeit noch im Widerspruch zur Erwärmung des Meerwassers.
For scientists, this result is still in contradiction to the warming of the seawater.

Another focal point of the campaign were large-scale measurements of ice thickness in the inner Arctic, which were conducted in close collaboration of the Alfred Wegener Institute together with the University of Alberta. An ice-thickness sensor, the so-called EM-Bird, was put into operation under a plane for the first time ever. To conduct the measurements, Polar 5 dragged the sensor which was attached to a steel cable of eighty metres length in a height of twenty metres over the ice cover. Multiple flights northwards from various stations showed an ice thickness between 2.5 (two years old ice in the vicinity of the North Pole) and 4 metres (perennial ice in Canadian offshore regions). All in all, the ice was somewhat thicker than during the last years in the same regions, which leads to the conclusion that Arctic ice cover recovers temporarily. The researchers found the thickest ice with a thickness of 15 metres along the northern coast of Ellesmere Island.

So the question is – why does the suspect Catlin data get unlimited press coverage, while the comprehensive data of the Wegener Institute gets buried by the press?  Is it possible that some members of the press have an agenda?
Woody Allen made some great movies in the 1970s, while the press was up to it’s usual antics – as reported by The Business and Media Institute.
The first Earth Day was celebrated on April 22, 1970, amidst hysteria about the dangers of a new ice age. The media had been spreading warnings of a cooling period since the 1950s, but those alarms grew louder in the 1970s.
Three months before, on January 11, The Washington Post told readers to “get a good grip on your long johns, cold weather haters – the worst may be yet to come,” in an article titled “Colder Winters Held Dawn of New Ice Age.” The article quoted climatologist Reid Bryson, who said “there’s no relief in sight” about the cooling trend.
Journalists took the threat of another ice age seriously. Fortune magazine actually won a “Science Writing Award” from the American Institute of Physics for its own analysis of the danger. “As for the present cooling trend a number of leading climatologists have concluded that it is very bad news indeed,” Fortune announced in February 1974.
“It is the root cause of a lot of that unpleasant weather around the world and they warn that it carries the potential for human disasters of unprecedented magnitude,” the article continued.
That article also emphasized Bryson’s extreme doomsday predictions. “There is very important climatic change going on right now, and it’s not merely something of academic interest.”
Bryson warned, “It is something that, if it continues, will affect the whole human occupation of the earth – like a billion people starving. The effects are already showing up in a rather drastic way.” However, the world population increased by 2.5 billion since that warning.
Fortune had been emphasizing the cooling trend for 20 years. In 1954, it picked up on the idea of a frozen earth and ran an article titled “Climate – the Heat May Be Off.”
The story debunked the notion that “despite all you may have read, heard, or imagined, it’s been growing cooler – not warmer – since the Thirties.”
The claims of global catastrophe were remarkably similar to what the media deliver now about global warming.
“The cooling has already killed hundreds of thousands of people in poor nations,” wrote Lowell Ponte in his 1976 book “The Cooling.”
If the proper measures weren’t taken, he cautioned, then the cooling would lead to “world famine, world chaos, and probably world war, and this could all come by the year 2000.”
There were more warnings. The Nov. 15, 1969, “Science News” quoted meteorologist Dr. J. Murray Mitchell Jr. about global cooling worries. “How long the current cooling trend continues is one of the most important problems of our civilization,” he said.
If the cooling continued for 200 to 300 years, the earth could be plunged into an ice age, Mitchell continued.
Six years later, the periodical reported “the cooling since 1940 has been large enough and consistent enough that it will not soon be reversed.
A city in a snow globe illustrated that March 1, 1975, article, while the cover showed an ice age obliterating an unfortunate city.
In 1975, cooling went from “one of the most important problems” to a first-place tie for “death and misery.” “The threat of a new ice age must now stand alongside nuclear war as a likely source of wholesale death and misery for mankind,” said Nigel Calder, a former editor of “New Scientist.”
He claimed it was not his disposition to be a “doomsday man.” His analysis came from “the facts [that] have emerged” about past ice ages, according to the July/August International Wildlife Magazine.
The idea of a worldwide deep freeze snowballed.
Naturally, science fiction authors embraced the topic. Writer John Christopher delivered a book on the coming ice age in 1962 called “The World in Winter.”
In Christopher’s novel, England and other “rich countries of the north” broke down under the icy onslaught.
“The machines stopped, the land was dead and the people went south,” he explained.
James Follett took a slightly different tack. His book “Ice” was about “a rogue Antarctic iceberg” that “becomes a major world menace.” Follett in his book conceived “the teeth chattering possibility of how Nature can punish those who foolishly believe they have mastered her.”
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Frank K.
May 18, 2009 10:05 am

George E. Smith (09:42:12) :
“A sheer waste of time and money; not to mention the public air waves.”
Actually not. This was a brilliantly executed marketing campaign to support sales of Catlin insurance products. And if you think about it, it has worked very well. Every time “Catlin” is mentioned in a newspaper or TV program around the world, it is essentially free advertising for the Catlin Group! How much would they have to spend to get this much advertising at standard rates? The “science” was just an afterthought, and as long as the Catlin Survey gets positive spin by the press, they will reap the benefits financially (from their cozy home in Bermuda).
Maybe for their next adventure, the Catlin Survey team can be sent to the beaches of the world to measure sea level rise using the same tape measure technique that proved so successful in the arctic!

David Ball
May 18, 2009 10:11 am

TonyB, I am pleased that you are optimistic that they will actually take questions “off the floor” after their lecture. I am somewhat skeptical that any questions will be allowed. If they utilize a screening process, it is highly unlikely that any questions that elude to duplicity will be accepted. If you are able to attend such a lecture, and are unable to ask questions, it will still be of value if you are able to report back what transpired.

Ron de Haan
May 18, 2009 11:00 am

Stefan (04:23:30) :
Regarding “agendas”, check out The State of the World Forum. http://www.worldforum.org/
It is an appeal to that demographic known as the Cultural Creatives, who are a growing segment of the voting public. The State of the World Forum’s members, including Gorbachev, appeal to Obama and other leaders, to drive forward the issue of climate change, because climate change is the one issue that can most appeal to the sensibilities of Cultural Creatives. Climate Change = Cultural Creatives. Cultural Creatives are the largest growing voting demographic. Any kind of change will require their support.
Now for my 2 cents. The leaders who are driving forward CC are not themselves CC. I think they know and understand the potential of CC and are simply using that issue with that demographic. The bigger (and real) issues are about global economic infrastructure and governance. CC is simply a way to package grand restructuring into something CC will feel for and vote for.
Cultural Creatives are not particularly concerned with the economy, and Obama knows this. But the power they will give him may give America sufficient power to lead through with other kinds of global changes. Read the chairman of The State of the World Forum’s ideas about how USA needs to be the “last empire”, by using its status and power to drive through a new structure for the world. No Cultural Creative would understand this nor be interested in such a project–it may even be anathema to them–but the “global” aspect of Climate Change is the necessary sexy voting issue to gain support for such shifts in global structure and power. Climate Change even has Cultural Creatives saying things like, “democracy is just greedy people voting for polluting industries” (words to that effect). CC are now in a trance and would accept anything.
One day Cultural Creatives will wake up and wonder what on earth happened.
Stefan,
The Cultural Creatives make an integral part of the UN/Club of Rome alarmist strategy to put us in “Green Shackles”.
There task is to provide humanity new targets in a “carbon poor world”.
If there is one person in the world who knows how to promote the collapse of a “World Power”, it is Gorbatchev and Obama knows all the tricks from their books.
This organization is a direct threat of the free world.
Visit http://green-agenda.com to get informed about their real objectives.

Steve H
May 18, 2009 11:05 am

Would it not be the case that drilling down to water is not in itself an indicator that one has reached the maximum thickness of the floating ice. After all, it appears to me almost trivially likely that the ice, often jumbled and multi-layered as it certainly is, must have pools or layers of water within its lower extent, such as would generate “false positives” for a pedestrian with a hand-drill?
That is unless they were, as has been suggested by an earlier poster, selecting only the FLAT stretches of ice, in which case the data is seriously corrupt in any case. I strongly suspect that the strongly subjective “I think I’ll drill a hole here” decisions made by a tired and half-frozen Penn Hadow would naturally tend towards selection of comparatively easy, flat, and therefore most likely thinner ice, than ridgy, boulder-strewn or uneven surfaces, which would be both harder to drill, and likely much thicker.

Steve H
May 18, 2009 11:12 am

With regard to that. I completely fail to see the scientific value of haphazardly drilled holes. Surely the ONLY useful dataset would be one drawn either continuously or else at precisely regular intervals, hand-drill or no. Clusters of holes, followed by long, irregular marches, with long periods sitting around potential airstrips, simply can’t provide a fair record of thickness across the walked section. The only meaningful dataset would have involved Penn drilling a hole exactly every 100 meters, or kilometer or similar.
I assume all can see the reason why this must be true.

Jack Green
May 18, 2009 11:43 am

We still don’t have any pictures or other evidence that the Catlin Arctic Survey ever happended. We have pictures of them on the ice but what proof do we have that the survey pictures aren’t from the practice run near the island? Still waiting.

alex verlinden
May 18, 2009 11:52 am

Gordon Ford (19:59:22) :
Claude Harvey (20:49:23) :
Jerry Gustafson (20:01:31) :
Bill (at various times) …
thanks for your comments …

May 18, 2009 12:05 pm

Ron De Haan
Did you ever see my long posting about Agenda 21 an organisation mentioned in Green agenda? I followed up the political motives of the various chairs of the committees, downloaded the minutes, explored their aims and generally put the fear of god into Smokey when I posted it!
Tonyb

May 18, 2009 12:11 pm

Ron and Smokey
Just to give Smokey another sleepless night, here are the minutes of the last Agenda 21 meeting held a few weeks ago which updates the post of mine that Smokey commented on.
http://unfccc.int/meetings/items/4381.php
TonyB

tomm174
May 18, 2009 12:50 pm

You should be ashamed of yourself – the institute’s research implies nothing like you suggest.
What is with you ~snip~. Is it that you don’t like the conclusion. Or you are sure that nothing ‘those kind of people’ (liberals?) say can be true. – Are you being paid ?
The basic mechanism (burning carbon -> increased CO2 -> increased heat retention -> global warming) is so obviously valid that it would require some very powerful opposing effect for it not to happen. You guys juggle with words, graphs, lie about what scientists say. – Why ?? You can’t bear someone else to be right ? You want your grandchildren to suffer ? You think it’s unAmerican to believe the energy technology our civilisation has developed might have bad effects.
Whatever your motive – unless you’re into punishing the next generation – you’re going to get something you don’t want.
It’s happening. It won’t be long. And you are going to be reviled – much good that’ll do anyone.
Doesn’t matter what your reason is

jack mosevich
May 18, 2009 1:07 pm

Frank K. (10:05:39) : In addition to benefiting Catlin Insurance, Pen and Ann will be in great demand as motivational speakers. You may recall that is what they were described as at the inception of the expedition.

May 18, 2009 1:08 pm

TonyB,
I can’t find where I commented on your post. Was it in this thread?

May 18, 2009 1:14 pm

tomm174 (12:50:45),
My advice: take an aspirin and lie down.

hunter
May 18, 2009 1:26 pm

tomm174,
You are right. AGW skeptics are evil misanthropes hoping to destory mankind and end its future.
I think you brave, enlightened AGW true believers ought to take up Hansen’s advice and rid the world of those who unworthy-to-live souls who risk all of humanity by daring to challenge the great truth you have discovered.
How dare skeptics point out that the Earth climate is not changing outside the MOE. How dare those wicked skeptics doubt such selfless souls as Hansen and Gore. How dare skeptics doubt such humanitarians as Lovelock.

May 18, 2009 1:57 pm

Smokey
No, it was several weeks ago following someones original post linking to this. Ring any bells?
http://www.foxnews.com/projects/pdf/032709_informationnote.pdf
Tonyb

Pragmatic
May 18, 2009 2:19 pm

“The verification of the calculated sea ice thickness using this equation indicates that the electromagnetic induction technique is able to determine reliable sea ice thickness with an average relative error of only 5.5%.”
This is the EM Bird towed by the Wegener mission.

Michael D Smith
May 18, 2009 2:30 pm

American Thinker has a good write-up of the Catlin trip, and even calculates their carbon footprint for them!
http://www.americanthinker.com/2009/05/the_catlin_ice_follies.html

neill
May 18, 2009 3:39 pm

tomm174 (12:50:45) :
“…The basic mechanism (burning carbon -> increased CO2 -> increased heat retention -> global warming) is so obviously valid that it would require some very powerful opposing effect for it not to happen…..”
Like:
* NSIDC reports unprecedented Arctic sea ice rebuild over the last 2 years.
NSIDC also claimed that the previous decline of Arctic sea ice occurred faster than natural causes can explain, so it must be due to global warming
Logically, NSIDC then must also state that the recent ice rebuild has also occurred faster than natural causes can explain. However, to my knowledge they haven’t yet managed to offer an explanation for the ice rebuild, only for the melting.
* NSIDC: Antarctica is an example of regional cooling.
* There doesn’t seem to be any debate that both the AMO and PDO have shifted into multi-decadal cooling phases.
* There also doesn’t seem to be any debate that the sun is quieter than it has been for almost a century, after having gone through an extremely active period in the latter part of the 20th century. I make no claims here as to causation of global warming or cooling, yet the correlation is certainly striking.
* As the globe cools and ice builds, atmospheric CO2 levels continue to rise per measurements at Mauna Loa.
What’s missing here…..?

Bill Jamison
May 18, 2009 4:25 pm

More lies from the Catlin team?
TORONTO – British explorers in northern Canada to measure the thickness of floating Arctic sea ice had to end their expedition this week, far short of reaching the North Pole due to an early summer ice melt.
“This year, the summer melt came a little early,” Hadow said during a Webcast conference from Resolute Bay in northern Canada. “We would have rather reached the Pole if we could have, but we’ve always regarded (getting there) as the cherry on the cake.”

http://www.msnbc.msn.com/id/30765212/
Yep I’m sure they would have made it to the North Pole if all of that thin first year ice they found hadn’t melted early!
They certainly don’t seem to let facts get in the way of their “science”…

David Ball
May 18, 2009 6:56 pm

I think an aspirin isn’t going to cut it. tomm174 [snip]. The Co2 THEORY has been found wanting, unless you TOTALLY ignore any evidence to the contrary. I have children, and they are going to have a bright future as will their children, for I will teach them to be adaptable, even if the temperatures begin to go outside of natural variance, WHICH IT HAS NOT!! The current cooling we are seeing negates any possibility that Co2 precedes temperature increase or affects temperature more than slightly. It is now AGW theorists who are in denial. Ignore any evidence contrary to your views. Utilize the precautionary principal. [snip]. It is quite funny to see the desperation in their posts, however. It gets more shrill every day. Grasping at straws when your beliefs do not stand under the light of truth. It must really hurt when mother nature won’t even play along. I spent 3 years living off the grid in Canada. Can you make that claim tomm174? I didn’t do it to save the planet. I did it to discover how difficult life would be without modern conveniences. Let me tell you, there is a reason life-span was so short as little as 100 years ago. Is this what you want for mankind? Technology is the path to enlightenment, as technology will find cleaner sources of energy in the near future. Not solar, not wind. Nuclear to start with and one day vacuum energy as Einstein and A.C.Clarke dreamed of. Going backwards will do more harm to “the children”. Do not attempt to force my children to have to live in the past. Life is brutal without technology. You are [snip] if you believe your view is the correct one.
Reply: Reign in the passion/insults David ~ charles the moderator

David Ball
May 18, 2009 7:27 pm

Will do. Thank you C -Mod ( your rapper name?) for letting this one pass.

David Ball
May 18, 2009 7:30 pm

If I may say so, it comes across more harshly with snips in. :^} Don’t you think?

neill
May 18, 2009 8:15 pm

tomm174?
and yeah, we’re all being paid by the letter to comment here. so we’re rollin’ in the clover big-time.
hee-hawww!!!!

Editor
May 18, 2009 8:42 pm

Charles the Moderator (aka Jeez in his off hours) please assure me that Tomm174 is really one of “us” engaging in sarcasm. If you can’t, I just might have to revise my views on eugenics.
Reply: Could you please not say things like that? It really is pushing it. ~ ctmakajinhoh

Barry Foster
May 19, 2009 1:05 am

The BBC has just interviewed the Catlin muppets on breakfast time TV – never said a word about the fact that they failed to even get halfway. But Pen Hadow did say they achieved all they set out to do, or somesuch.
I also had an email reply from BBC reporter, David Shukman, who was the ‘journalist’ who interviewed them as they packed it in. I berated him for failing to mention the halfway bit. He says he did state it in his report. He didn’t – until his later report. He also says, “I can’t answer for the biometric data on their website. A number of scientists have told me they value the data from the drill-holes. The expectation had been that there would be more multi-year ice.”
David Shukman (the same one who filed a TV report back in the summer that Tuvalu is still sinking) also stated that Mr Hadow said it was a “successful expedition”. I reminded him that a good journalist would question hadow’s definition of ‘successful’.
Woeful.