Guest Post by Steven Goddard
Last weeks’ top Antarctic AGW story was :
due to CO2, of course.
This week the #1 story is :
but the increase in size is due to “stratospheric ozone depletion” which is of course also caused by man-made gases.
So Antarctic ice is disappearing faster than expected due to man, and it is also expanding in size due to man. Meanwhile, the early autumn temperature in Vostok, Antarctica is a toasty -95F, a nice warm up from the -104F temperatures earlier this week.
Oh, and one minor problem with the ozone hole theory “The ozone hole occurs during the Antarctic spring, from September to early December” – but the positive ice anomaly occurred during the autumn and winter (March through July) as represented by the red line below.
http://arctic.atmos.uiuc.edu/cryosphere/IMAGES/current.365.south.jpg
And while the ozone hole was present, ice was normal. So the ice excess probably has nothing to do with the ozone hole.
http://www.cpc.noaa.gov/products/stratosphere/polar/polar.shtml
The AGW standard for broad acceptance of new theories seems to be “not completely implausible – if you avoid actually looking at the body of data or what you might have said last week.“
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SSSailor, fascinating article that you linked to. Thanks.
The Sun will expose them for the polyscience agenda they are running.
You can’t hide the Sun.
You cannot remodel it’s output that is seen & felt globally.
You cannot pass legislation or policy to force it to do something else.
You cannot blame the Sun on man.
You cannot explain the Sun’s behavior by CO2 levels on Earth.
You cannot squeeze blood out of a turnip any more than you can create Green Energy out of nothing while the Sun threatens to drop it’s output.
It’s the Sun, stupid.
Even the ancients knew better.
SSSailor,
That was a great article, plenty of food for thought and some cause for optimism.
“It is not unusual for decadent political arrangements to blaze brightly before their end.” -James V. DeLong
Bill Illis,
Do you have a website where I can download various ocean sst data that you’ve collected? Seems like the poles have longer cycles, but the data is too recent.
It’s pretty damn obvious to me that if you subtract the ocean sst cycles from the temp data, you’re left with primarily the solar signature (regardless of correlation or lack thereof as implied by others)…either way, certainly not the CO2 signature.
Hard to find ocean sst data that goes far enough back to cover more than 1/2-1 cycle though (other than PDO/AMO). Any links would be much appreciated.
Ed
Yeah and the sun will be part of that darwinian “squashing”….as it has done for billions of years BEFORE homo sapiens ever climbed out of the trees.
Well said, Rob.
From the essay linked by SSSailor, my favorite passage:
“Thus environmentalists claim not just a few million dollars for endangered species protection, but total control over all land use, and, most recently, over the entire economy in the interests of protecting the polar bear.”
Don Owen, from the same essay:
Despite 0bama’s slender majority, he clearly could not care less about what President Jefferson thought.
What was that I studied in Early Astronomy?
Oh, yes, the Mayan Rulers and their priests practiced a religion of control claiming to appease and guide the Sun & crops & Hero Twins with their sacrifice. Until they fouled up the very ecosystem they depended upon for thier bounty of Maize by overuse of fuels to make thier shiny lime plaster.
Nobody told them about energy conservation.
Nobody told them to stop doing things to the land.
It wasn’t the C02 from burning that destroyed them, it was the ecological system they wasted.
AGW is blowing smoke up tailpipes.
Go back to your superfund thing, it was working.
If it ain’t broke, don’t fix it.
Very enlightening article SSSailor. I bookmarked it for printing out and more careful reading tomorrow. But I like what I see already.
Slightly off topic but we can add Steve Benen’s ‘Political Animal’ at the Washington Monthly to the dishonest boards like Real Climate, Tamino’s Open Mind, Joe Romm’s Climate Progress, and Pharyngula. I’ve just had comments deleted over there. Pitiful. Interestingly, so far, Matt Yglesias has let my stuff stand. Kudos for that.
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Keith Minto (16:26:47) :
and a number of others of the faith
I see another climate trend in that as the twists and turns of desperation and model patching go on in the face of a cooling planet, the faithful at such posts as this avoid reference to the inconvenient mounting data of a cooling phase in the face of rising CO2 and avoid scientific debate of issues, perferring to adopt a derisive snarkiness as a diversion. Indeed, I never expected on this blogsite to be hearing about the psychosocial fantasies of “white working class (science hating) hunter’s” feeling the need to create unicorns and big foots etc… and associating this with skeptical scientists. Wow! I hope this elitist and racist swipe at white hunters and skeptics doesn’t get out of hand. Maybe this is what happens when good models go bad.
Com’on – I know you used to believe in CO2 and a warming planet but I know from your invoking of unicorns and the like that you don’t believe all this malarky about AGW causing record ice development in Antarctica, farting lazy fat people (another elitist notion) exacerbating the AGW, etc. In fact I believe many of the less zealous among the establishment are downright embarassed and the rest are like the emperor penguin, clustering together in the dark antarctic cold with egg on feet and backs to the wind.
Ooh, look, a CO2 meteor !
The Ocean of model Earth is rising.
The melting ice is spreading ever farther and thicker.
Psst… hey buddy…want to buy a draft horse?
“Meanwhile, the early autumn temperature in Vostok, Antarctica is a toasty -95F, a nice warm up from the -104F temperatures earlier this week.”
Wow! That’s mind-numbingly cold!! Interestingly, CO2 freezes at -110F. That must be why the ice extent is increasing in antarctica – all of the CO2 is turning into dry ice…
I’ve also been pondering why we see so many inane and conflicting AGW alarmist stories in the media. It seems that some group or other has a global warming-based press release almost every day. Well, I’ve concluded that it is all due to the *** billions *** of dollars being poured into the Global Warming Industry by governments (i.e. your tax money) and private benefactors. It has become the modern academic/scientific gravy train. The antics of the Catlin Survey stunt team are a prominent example this connection between the money and the AGW industry…BTW, guess who’s going to get rich when Cap and Trade is enacted…
With reference to pft (17:07:20), here is the full passage from Eisenhower’s Farewell Address – read and weap for science.
“Akin to, and largely responsible for the sweeping changes in our industrial-military posture, has been the technological revolution during recent decades.
In this revolution, research has become central, it also becomes more formalized, complex, and costly. A steadily increasing share is conducted for, by, or at the direction of, the Federal government.
Today, the solitary inventor, tinkering in his shop, has been overshadowed by task forces of scientists in laboratories and testing fields. In the same fashion, the free university, historically the fountainhead of free ideas and scientific discovery, has experienced a revolution in the conduct of research. Partly because of the huge costs involved, a government contract becomes virtually a substitute for intellectual curiosity. For every old blackboard there are now hundreds of new electronic computers.
The prospect of domination of the nation’s scholars by Federal employment, project allocations, and the power of money is ever present – and is gravely to be regarded.
Yet, in holding scientific research and discovery in respect, as we should, we must also be alert to the equal and opposite danger that public policy could itself become the captive of a scientific-technological elite.”
Also, I believe the capture of government/science/media by the left has advanced to the point where cognitive dissonance among the AGW crowd is creating the sort of incoherence displayed in Steve Goddard’s example at the top of the post, and especially in Ms Stroeve’s remarks. It’s as if people like Stroeve only understand one thing: the consensus must be preserved no matter how ridiculous it may sound to folks like readers of WUWT.
Smokey (20:59:21) :
Don Owen, from the same essay:
As Thomas Jefferson said, “Great innovations should not be forced on slender majorities.”
Despite 0bama’s slender majority, he clearly could not care less about what President Jefferson thought.
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While I am not a fan of young Barack due to his complete lack of experience (President of the USA seems a rather big step for his first real job), I am very concerned because:
1. He will ultimately be humiliated by all this climate alarmist foolishness, and this is not good for the Office of the President, the USA or the American people.
2. His foray into CO2 reduction could drag the US economy down to great depths, such that it will take a decade or more to recover. It also seems probable that the USA will never regain its global prominence. Raising the cost of energy, the lifeblood of any economy, based on bogus climate science will pretty well seal this fate. If other countries become the dominant global powers, don’t expect the world to become a kinder, gentler place. Even those who suffer from Pavlovian Anti-American Syndrome will long for the “good old days” of Pax Americana.
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A President is no better these days than his advisers.
Still, he seems a lot smarter than most we’ve had in a long time.
Perhaps if we keep up the WUWT AGW lid prying, it will come off with sufficient force to capture the attention of our President.
He’s got to know something is up.
What’s Up With the Sun is a powerful argument, Mr. President.
It Eclipses everything, including global warming.
And that’s What’s Up With That.
Unless the cold dip gets stronger this winter, freezing lakes not frozen since the LIA, I see no way to stop this runaway cover for political decisions. Logic and scientific proofs are not at the intelligence level of mobs, and people are being manipulated into a mob. The people who are doing the manipulation ( manipulators believe their spin, otherwise they would be no good ) have to awake, and they will not, unless they hit something drastic.
I relax taking the long view. Western society is developing according to Darwin filling up the niches available. If it comes up to a survival of the fittest test, as this AGW stampede is, and fails, it is all for the good of humanity. The Chinese and the rest of the 5billion humans are there to pick up the slack and fill the niches. Humanity survives and will be better longterm for the lesson.
I propose a balanced ice budget. Let’s move ice from the South Pole to the North Pole. Except that the North Pole doesn’t need any more ice.
http://nsidc.org/data/seaice_index/images/daily_images/N_timeseries.png
Perhaps we can send the extra 630,000km2 of global ice to Venus? They need it more than we do.
http://arctic.atmos.uiuc.edu/cryosphere/iphone/images/iphone.anomaly.global.png
Ice seems to be the only thing running a surplus these days. No wonder governments choose to focus on the imaginary ice economy – instead of something real.
Ah… anyone want to place bets as to what day next week the Arctic daily ice graph for this month will intersect and exceed the average? It’s getting reeeeeeeeeally close! …and the recovery of ice is doing just fine since the cyclic 2007 melt (just like previous times like the 1930s, etc.) Check it out at the NSIDC. http://nsidc.org/data/seaice_index/daily.html
Yeah! Hah! Can’t wait to send those graphs to the EPA for their hearings on CO2 as a pollutant.
You can not stop the intersection…the Arctic Ice is now part of the sea ice collective and the Ice Borg!
The ultimate Ponzi ripoff, $50B has nothing on the AGW crowd.
Allan M R MacRae (21:31:49) : “It also seems probable that the USA will never regain its global prominence.”
The people of the USA — via government, non-gov organizations, private labors and donations – have made a tremendous effort since the end of WW2 to improve the well being of many people and their countries. Much of this effort has been wasted but much has worked. It should be no surprise if the US is not quite as primary over the next 30-50 years as it was in the past 50. We call some of these countries friends. They and others need to share more of the burden of raising standards all over the world. Instead there seems to be a collective rush to the 1800s.
slowtofollow (17:41:41) :
BAS press release:
http://www.antarctica.ac.uk/press/press_releases/press_release.php?id=838
Thanks for posting this. The BAS scientists are clearly clutching at straws. If as they say the Antarctic cooling is due to the ozone hole, why not the Arctic also? (there’s no hole at the north but the ozone layer is considerably thinner).
Oooo this is something important I haven’t seen mentioned here previously:
Apr 21, 2009. The Fraser Institute: New Report Details Over-Looked Scientific Evidence Against Simplistic Climate Alarmism
VANCOUVER, BC—A 110-page report by an international team of climate experts published today by the independent Fraser Institute examines critically-important scientific evidence that has been overlooked or omitted in government reports that blame climate change on carbon dioxide emissions.
The new peer-reviewed report’s seven chapters investigate published scientific literature on issues such as the effects of ocean oscillations and solar variations on climate, historical climate variability, statistical challenges in climate analysis, uncertainties in climate modeling, and quality problems in temperature measurement systems. The report leaves no doubt that the science is far from “settled” on climate change.
For the complete article: http://www.fraserinstitute.org/newsandevents/news/6629.aspx
http://www.geosc.psu.edu/~pwinberr/Site/J%20Paul%20Winberry_files/WinAnanGeology.pdf
Interesting reading about the Antartic rift.
The EcoInquirer had posted a funny article about this increase and decrease of Antarctic ice some time ago…
http://www.ecoenquirer.com/antarctic-ice.htm
Now it is predicting the conclusions of the 10th Bali Conference on Global Warming (2027). Some bits are just priceless… “Today, we have continued the long tradition of cooperation that has maintained agreements enabling negotiations which provide a basis for future talks” lol
http://www.ecoenquirer.com/Bali-global-warming-2027.htm
I hope the links pass the filter…