The Left Hand Knows Not What The Right Hand is Doing

Guest Post by Steven Goddard

confusion

Last weeks’ top Antarctic AGW story was :

Antarctic ice melting faster than expected

due to CO2, of course.

This week the #1 story is :

Antarctic ice spreading

but the increase in size is due to “stratospheric ozone depletion” which is of course also caused by man-made gases.

So Antarctic ice is disappearing faster than expected due to man, and it is also expanding in size due to man.  Meanwhile, the early autumn temperature in Vostok, Antarctica is a toasty -95F, a nice warm up from the -104F temperatures earlier this week.

Oh, and one minor problem with the ozone hole theory  “The ozone hole occurs during the Antarctic spring, from September to early December” – but the positive ice anomaly occurred during the autumn and winter (March through July) as represented by the red line below.  

http://arctic.atmos.uiuc.edu/cryosphere/IMAGES/current.365.south.jpg

http://arctic.atmos.uiuc.edu/cryosphere/IMAGES/current.365.south.jpg

And while the ozone hole was present, ice was normal.  So the ice excess probably has nothing to do with the ozone hole.

Antartic Ozone Hole 2008 - from NOAA Climate Prediction Center

Antartic Ozone Hole 2008 - from NOAA Climate Prediction Center

http://www.cpc.noaa.gov/products/stratosphere/polar/polar.shtml

The AGW standard for broad acceptance of new theories seems to be “not completely implausible – if you avoid actually looking at the body of data or what you might have said last week.

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Bill Illis

You can see what part of the year the Antarctic ice extent is increasing through these two charts.
September anomalies trend.
ftp://sidads.colorado.edu/DATASETS/NOAA/G02135/Sep/S_09_plot.png
March anomalies trend.
ftp://sidads.colorado.edu/DATASETS/NOAA/G02135/Mar/S_03_plot.png

anubisxiii

This is what happens when everything can be laid at the feet of AGW.
Pretty soon, all sorts of contradictory things are a result of the same thing.
Ice increase=AGW
Ice decrease=AGW
More hurricanes=AGW
Less hurricanes=AGW
More snow=AGW
Less snow=AGW
Fortunately, there is a Computer Model for every iteration and possible scenario.

Leon Brozyna

If they’re not cooking the books, they’re spinning the facts.

And of course, it is the minor trace gas CO2 that causes the AGW.
That’s why the alarmists can not let go of CO2, despite the clear lack of causation.

Mike Bryant

AGW is like BEER… It’s the cause of, and the solution to, all of mankind’s problems.
-Homer Simpson (except for the “AGW is like” part)

Jack Green

I remember during the Clinton Gore campaign the quote: “Everything that should be up is down and everything that should be down is up”.
This applies here.

Clarity2009

And notice the solution is always more government in some way. New programs, new regulation, more spending.
During the boom times we could afford to spend so government expands. When the economy contracts the government has to spend because “no one is will” so government expands. When the AGW crowd manages to get enough politicians onboard to further the climate hysteria, government expands.
I’m beginning to notice a pattern here!

Juraj V.

Based on climate models, ozone forcing should cause no change in polar lower troposphere temperature:
http://joannenova.com.au/globalwarming/hot-spot/Fingerprints%20of%20warming%20v5%20flat.jpg
Latest experiment by NASA has also found, that speed of the chemical reaction between the freon molecules with ozone in simulated “real” conditions is by magnitude lower than expected. A bit humble conclusion was “we do not have mechanism for some 60% of the ozone depletion”. This freon-ozone chemistry was much simpler than climatic stuff and still “science is not settled”.

Ray

I have my own model to predict what the AGWholics will do next…
It is shaped like a little cube and has dots on each face (i.e. 1, 2, 3, etc). In order to do the right prediction of how many degrees the earth will warm up in the next few years, you throw the little cube in the air and wait until it stops once on the table (or ground, or whatever horizontal flat surface). The you count the number of dots facing the face facing up, et voila! You now have a number with high confidence of the temperature rise.

George M

Ray (16:10:21) :
I have my own model to predict what the AGWholics will do next…

That is certainly a robust method. And a good proxy for their approach.

Cathy

Hey! Let’s give Julienne Stroeve some respect here! (weeks #1 story)
What’s not to believe when dealing with concise, articulate comments (spin) like this:
” . . . but there’s regional differences that are quite different from different regions and we have to deal with what we know about . . .”
Pathetic.

Bill Illis

They could be arguing that the Ozone Hole increases the polar vortex year-round so that there is less melting in the sea ice minimum period (February-March) but there is no increase during the sea ice maximum period (September) since the ice extends well beyond the vortex at that time of year.
But if the polar vortex has increased since the Ozone Hole formed (didn’t really get going till around 1980) then it should have expanded to cover the Antarctic Peninsula as well and we shouldn’t have seen increased warming and increased ice-shelf melt in the Peninsula (which is just at the edge – sometimes in – sometimes outside of the vortex).
Ozone Hole trend since 1979.
http://ozonewatch.gsfc.nasa.gov/statistics/meteorology_annual.png

John H

“So Antarctic ice is disappearing faster than expected due to man, and it is also expanding in size due to man.”
What if everything stayed the same? Nothing changed?
It would be really weird for them to blame mankind for that?
I feel like I’d have to agree with them.
What a twist.
I guess they’d be warning of dire consequences of no change?
The AGW crusade has the world so screwed up I can’t tell whether to laugh or cry. I tried doing both at the same time but I felt nuts.

Keith Minto

Good topic, as I am reading the April 4 edition of New Scientist,in particular an article ‘Fuming-Is the anti-smoking lobby going too far’ in which the medical science of second hand and third hand(lingering smoke particles) smoke is departing from extremist attitudes……..sound familiar?
Meanwhile in the same edition,the esteemed Editor reviewed two books,one on the Natural History of Unicorns and another on the life and times of Bigfoot. Nothing to do with AGW I would have thought….but wait. It appears that belief in Bigfoot dwells in ‘white working class men’ that hunt and ‘the hunters desire to be scientific while simultaneously disparaging the scientific establishment makes for thought provoking reading:there are obvious parallels with the attitudes of intelligent design enthusiasts and climate change sceptics’.
So scepticism is a cultural attitude rather than a scientific position. How on earth do you counter that typecasting?

Mike Bryant

F. Scott Fitzgerald said that “the true test of a first-rate mind is the ability to hold two contradictory ideas at the same time.”
I think that F. Scott may have been right if he was talking about the creative mind. In fact the creative mind probably can hold even more than two or three contradictory ideas. But I don’t want a novelist, or an actor, or an artist or any person of a creative bent handling scientific enquiry, data or other real things like my money.
I guess that’s why there is such a gulf between the liberal arts and the hard sciences. Sadly, it seems that the gulf has frozen over and the creatives have skated into a new and exciting universe where they believe anything is possible…

kim

Cognitive dissonance is expected when paradigms shatter. What saddens me is that this hoax of exquisite climate sensitivity to CO2 couldn’t be repudiated by honest science, without a perilous period of cooling intervening. Why, oh why has science been so inadequate to the task good policy demands of it? We need to answer that question, and soon, because climate isn’t going to be the only example of science becoming perverted.
======================================

Fred from Canuckistan . . .

The Global Warming Emperor is beyond naked . . .more like a porn star.

Rick

I’m waiting for the press release that says “Temperatures have been dangerously close to average this year. Man made global warming may be to blame.”

Based on ERSSST.v3b data, the majority of the Southern Ocean appears to have a ~100 year cycle.
http://i41.tinypic.com/qsjwwp.jpg
The portion of the Southern Ocean south of the Southeast Pacific (red curve) represents about 20% and is impacted by ENSO. The remaining 80% (green curve) has what appears to be a long cycle.
Somewhat on topic, the SSTs of the Southern Ocean surrounding the Wilkins Ice Shelf has a negative trend for the past 150+ years.
http://i44.tinypic.com/a331xv.jpg
The rest of that post on the ERSST.v3b data of the Southern Ocean is here:
http://bobtisdale.blogspot.com/2009/04/closer-look-at-ersstv3b-southern-ocean.html
Regards

Ray

“Antarctic ice is disappearing faster than expected due to man, and it is also expanding in size due to man.”
So that could equal something close to zero net effect… just like it was thousands and millions of years ago.
So, they have found the solution… emit more CO2 to get more snow and emit more CFCs to get less ozone. Why are we cutting emissions again?

Ron de Haan

Here is a good advice:
Ignore the press! Why? Because all the evil and disasters that would happen to man kind predicted thirty years ago, did not happen.
http://www.ihatethemedia.com/earth-day-predictions-of-1970-the-reason-you-should-not-believe-earth-day-predictions-of-2009

Keith Minto

Mike Bryant (16:32:19), that is a thoughtful quote but new ideas in science have to come from somewhere and I guess that distillation of ideas collected in ones scientific study could be called creativity.
Think of Henrik Svensmark’s creative leap after years of data observation to form an hypothesis connecting TSI, cosmic rays and cloud formation.
Acceptance of new ideas comes later after multiple testing, peer approval and the passage of time, but the seed is creativity.

Pamela Gray

Off topic and at the other end, but has anyone looked at the “tale of the tape” recently?
http://arctic.atmos.uiuc.edu/cryosphere/IMAGES/sea.ice.anomaly.timeseries.jpg
Is that a tipping point I see? Is it just a matter of time before something is said about pollution causing more ice in the Arctic as well?

pft

kim (16:39:41) :
“Cognitive dissonance is expected when paradigms shatter. What saddens me is that this hoax of exquisite climate sensitivity to CO2 couldn’t be repudiated by honest science, without a perilous period of cooling intervening. Why, oh why has science been so inadequate to the task good policy demands of it? We need to answer that question, and soon, because climate isn’t going to be the only example of science becoming perverted.”
Actually, Eisenhower warned us in his last speech about the dangers of the MIC which most people remember, but he also he warned us in the same speech about the danger of government funding of science which was increasing and could result in the perversion of science you now see. DDT, CFC’s, AGW are all examples of promoting unwarranted fears to regulate beneficial products or emissions. Peak Oil, Vaccine safety, GM food safety, etc., are examples where government funding of research controlled by regulators who have a conflict of interest and are pro-industry help promote that which is harmful to people.
It all leads to more government control, and lower living standards, and what will soon be shorter life expectancy rates, and fewer social security checks.
Anyways, George Orwell says hi. Winston says the memory hole is filling up and he is working way too much and Big Brother won’t let him retire, since if you don’t work, you won’t eat.

A.Syme

I had totally forgotten about the ozone hole! It’s so 1980ish. Well time to revive it! And here to think that there was a time when I actually built ozone generators (for water treatment)

Joseph

Oh Steve, Steve, Steve,
You said:
“Oh, and one minor problem with the ozone hole theory ”The ozone hole occurs during the Antarctic spring, from September to early December” – but the positive ice anomaly occurred during the autumn and winter (March through July) as represented by the red line below.”
Isn’t it obvious that this was due to “cooling in the pipeline”?
Try to keep up.
/sarc

Philip_B

Bill Illis, interesting. Those graphs say the sea ice increase is a summer phenomena, ie less melt when the ice margin is closer to Antarctica. Note, there is no sea ice around the peninsula in summer. Which says it is probably caused by a colder Antarctica.
Kim, I agree completely. It is indeed shocking that it is taking a period of natural cooling to puncture the CO2 hoax. Imagine what would have happened if we had continuing natural warming?

April

It’s amazing that the one story expects us to be alarmed that the Antarctic Peninsula has lost 27,000 km of ice over 50 years while the other story essentially dismisses 100,000 km per decade of ice growth (over 30 years) as inconsequential.

Skeptic Tank

Well, we had better do something soon before everybody figures out that we really don’t have to do anything. If the AGW goes away, it’ll prove we were right and if it doesn’t go away, it’ll prove we haven’t done enough and we have to do more before it’s too late again.

slowtofollow
layne Blanchard

Anthony, Steve,
Thanks for this site. Your work here rests at the forefront of awareness on this issue critical to economies worldwide. As this site grows in popularity, it educates everyone. It’s one of the most important sites on the web in my opinion. I’m armed to the teeth for any discussion on AGW because of data presented here.

Robert Bateman

So Global Warming causes everything and everything causes Global Warming.
The Perfect Feedback.
Grab a Duff today. It causes Global Warming which causes more Duff beer.
You can get really drunk on AGW.

fuuuuuu

You know, the more paranoid people believe that hoaxes such as global warming pushed by government agencies such as a the UN are a pretext to controlling the thoughts and actions of the global population so that they can establish a global monetary system and global government

As far as we know the “ozone hole” has always been there and always will be. Discovered in the mid 1950s, there was a step change in the min 1980s, which sure doesn’t look like a slow increase in CFCs, and then virtually no change since then, regardless of the banning of CFCs.
http://junkscience.com/Ozone/plot9552.gif
There’s no evidence that CFCs are the cause of the “hole”. And why would CFCs concentrate on the southern pole anyway?

And…do you know how is it called the left hand in latin? Sinistra (the one sinister)

groweg

Kim
is so on target in his post about how amazing it is that science is being used by the AGW believers to impose on society a falsehood no less preposterous than phrenology and bloodletting to treat illness. Apparently at least a good section of modern mankind is not so enlightened after all. Even with an array of arguments disproving to any rational person that CO2 causes global warming presented on websites like this one and an obviously cooling climate over the past several years they still can’t get to the truth on this issue.
I wonder if the AGW crowd in government will be able to enforce their beloved carbon emission limits assuming the climate cools due to solar influences over the next several decades. It may be akin to the Prohibition era.

Adam from Kansas

And the next story on the front page would be breathing causes Global Warming or yo-yo’ing a yo-yo causes Global Warming, just stating the belief that CO2 is the magic gas that can cause your pencil to sharpen by itself.
Enough of the silly talk, Arctic Ice extent remains higher than 2003, Antarctic ice is above average, and there’s the possible implications of the SOI now about at +9 after rising since April 1st and should hit +10 tomorrow at the current rate. NOAA’s SST chart hasn’t been updated today, breaking the 3-4-3-4 day pattern of updates (they were kind of late with their last update too), I wonder what’s going on?

John H

Skeptic tank
“Well, we had better do something soon before everybody figures out that we really don’t have to do anything”
Unfortunately that won’t be the case regardless of how AGW goes.
Waiting in the wings is ocean acidification they can still blame on human CO2 emissions.
And there’s peak oil, endangered species, habitat loss, public health, reliance on foreign energy, public health and safety, land use and transportation agenda’s and about 50 other causes to cling to and to promote nearly all of the same sweeping policies.
It’s a tyranny of left wing activism run wild. All feeding off each other’s cause while emitting a disdain for human beings enjoying a modern world.
Here in Portland, Oregon we get it all. And the whole state is on the brink of being diagnosed as insane.
Other than that things are looking up. 🙂

Steven Goddard

layne Blanchard,
Thanks for the kind words.
Suffice it to say, anyone in the running for Miss America (or Vice-President of the US) would be well advised not to answer any global warming questions based on information gathered at WUWT. Real Climate would be a much better site for aspiring beauty queens and politicians to study up on this important issue.
———————————————————–
Q. If it was in your power, what would you do to stop Global Warming?
A. First, I feel so badly for all the Polar Bears and Penguins that are drowning. We all need to drive hybrids and use those new curly light bulbs. If I win, I will fly all over the world and bring the important message that we need to stop making so much carbon – which is killing our planet. I want to leave a carbon-free planet for my grandchildren. It is the only planet we have.
Thunderous applause from the audience

Hmmmm so why is the hole bigger now? We’ve banned CFCs for over 20 years, we should be seeing some attenuation in the ozone hole by now if that was the cause.

Dave Middleton

If she weighed the same as a duck… she’s made of wood.
If everything anti-correlates…Climate is man-made.
And therefore…
And therefore anthropogenic global warming…
…A witch!
…Is settled science

Jeff, its not that the CFCs are concentrating over the pole, they aren’t, it is that the south pole has the coldest high altitude temperatures. Ozone depletion is a function of temperature AND chlorine concentrations. Some folks have argued that greenhouse effects keep heat low in the troposphere and makes the stratosphere, where the ozone is, colder than normal. Increased cold in the stratosphere causes increased ozone depletion with the same CFC concentrations. So expect to see the AGW cultists claiming CO2 is making the ozone hole worse than it would otherwise be.

Oh BTW: MY personal pet theory for why CO2 is increasing: bigger ozone hole allows more UV to hit the oceans, which kills plankton, reducing the amount of CO2 being sequestered by plankton and incidentally reducing the krill food source for many ocean species, which is why various fisheries have crashed in recent years. Also, increased UV in Antarctica would explain why the penninsula is warming.

Mike

Good comments all. Would someone get to Ms. Stroeve and tell her she sounds like a junior high valley girl with all those “you know”s? Even in casual conversation it’s irritating. From someone who’s suppose to be a scientist, it’s downright disturbing. But I guess that’s par for the course.

barbee butts

Anthony, Sweetheart-you know I love you.
But this repetitive insistance of yours that modern scientists must have some credibility is just…. sad.

SSSailor

Anthony
And fellow travelers,
A bit tangential to the topic yet pertinent to subject at hand, is an insightful piece by James V. DeLong 04/21/2009 at The American; http://www.american.com/archive/2009/april-2009/the-coming-of-the-fourth-american-republic. Mr. DeLong Contemplates the under the radar conflict (war?) brewing among the special interest entities that influence the governance of our (US) society. Specifically, The Climate Changers v Financiers v Industrial Interests.
Meanwhile the natural world pays scant attention the scurrying about of emotion driven fools.
Truly, we live in interesting times. More fun ahead.

John H

I nominate Goddard for quote of the week.
Steven Goddard (18:27:24) :
“Suffice it to say, anyone in the running for Miss America (or Vice-President of the US) would be well advised not to answer any global warming questions based on information gathered at WUWT. Real Climate would be a much better site for aspiring beauty queens and politicians to study up on this important issue.”

Philip_B

Steven Goddard, AGW Global Warming has become so debased that it is little more than what people say to get jobs/grants/elected and fulfill their need to conform, which in this day and age means to be PC.
I’ve conclude that 9 out of 10 AGW believers are either plain ignorant like our Miss America or paying lip service.
Which is not to say there aren’t capable scientists that believe in AGW (as a problem serious enough to require action). Although, I think there are far less than claimed.

savethesharks

April (17:39:06) : Wrote “It’s amazing that the one story expects us to be alarmed that the Antarctic Peninsula has lost 27,000 km of ice over 50 years while the other story essentially dismisses 100,000 km per decade of ice growth (over 30 years) as inconsequential.”
Money!
Also…Julienne Strove, by her embarrassing American colloquial English: Scientist or MTV hostess??
Like” well, she like, you know, did not say very much…..you know…..like full on..OMG….you know I don’t now…..I know, right?
Your TAX dollars at work folks.
When will this AGW heist of science end??
Will they be squashed in a darwinian whimper in the name of better science, or will Mother Nature do something more drastic?
Chris
Norfolk, VA, USA

Mike Bryant

“Keith Minto (17:04:26) :
Mike Bryant (16:32:19), that is a thoughtful quote but new ideas in science have to come from somewhere and I guess that distillation of ideas collected in ones scientific study could be called creativity.”
True, to look at all the data that everyone else has looked at and to come to a different conclusion is creative. The proving of the hypothesis is the hard part. The new science gets the star on the report sans proof. If it makes you feel good, it’s gotta BE good enough! 🙂