Following up on the cold spring story from Friday, one of the favorite mantras of the global warming community has been that global warming brings earlier spring seasons. If a bird shows up earlier than someone in Yorkshire expected, a news story often appears at The Guardian or BBC explaining that it is due to “man made global warming.” A Google search of “global warming early spring” produces more than 300,000 hits.
So what happens when nature refuses to cooperate? Below are some claims from the top ten, interspersed with recent observations from the cold spring season of 2009.
Today’s NCEP forecast for the US – cold across the entire country + Canada + Mexico
Accuweather spring snow forecast through today. I’m guessing that no one is planting crops in Nebraska today.
Global warming causes quakes, early spring
Earthquakes?
Global warming brings early spring to Arctic
Three people based their spring backpacking trip on that theory:
Catlin Arctic Explorer Martin Hartley
Current spring conditions in the Arctic
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-35°C℃ |
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Mild winter rattles Russians : Psychiatrists warn lack of cold, sun, snow lead some into depression
Today’s NCEP forecast for Russia – severe springtime cold
Perhaps all that extra CO2 is being affected by the global recession, and is unable to find employment in it’s normal line of work – trapping heat.
Protesting snowmen on the unemployment lines – H/T to Jennifer Marohasy
gvheard said:
Got a link for that? Sounds interesting.
OK, I have found a reference: Arthur C Clarke.
Some of his predictions are off … who knows.
The one problem with most predictions is the assumption that the good times will continue and scientific progress will continue. That may be an invalid assumption.
VG:
I downloaded Dr.Theon´s speech and saw it. For me the central issue is, when referring to JH he said that JH had some very “powerful political friends”…
Now, how does it work?, at least since the french revolution practically ended all monarchies in the world:
Some “secret”or rather, “esoteric” society, choose, among middle class men, a not too clever guy (being clever would be dangerous indeed), then through well concocted “ceremonies” of theirs, convince this not so clever guy, that he is becoming “initiated” in such a way that he is progressing or developing a certain degree of elevated consciousness which places him above we, common mortals.
In order to make possible to this individual to be useful for this secret society goals, he is conveniently helped and promoted in his personal social and business life by their secret comrades.
In one of the latest degrees this so exaltated individual is secretly informed the organization´s most altruistic goals for mankind, and how HE has been chosen by God himself to cooperate toward the fulfillment of His work on the earth. He is instructed of how humanity and the world will and must be, with no differences whatsoever among men, how God wants us humans to be organized as in a honeycomb or in an anthill.
I was trying to find the British Met Office’s verdict on March’s weather here in the UK and it would seem they have not seen fit to update from February to March: http://www.metoffice.gov.uk/weather/uk/uk_latest_weather.html
Maybe they are still debating what to show. Note February’s reference to:
“A cold first half of the month followed by a mild second half resulted in mean temperatures for the whole month being close to the 1971-2000 normal over most of the UK”. No verdict as to actual average February temperature and exactly how that compared with “1971-2000 normal”. I would have thought that to verify to their strong AGW stand February ought to have been above average.
I live in Arkansas. We are indeed blessed with the normal spring blossoms, redbud trees are in full bloom with some dogwoods just beginning to show their flowers. I got out and mowed the lawn for the first time this year. But I sit in my house with my jacket on contemplating whether or not to turn the heat back on.
It’s chilly and blustery outside. It’s supposed to go back down into the twenties Monday night. I’m worrying about when to plant my garden. Frosts in April are not uncommon, of course, but what I’m saying is that IT IS NOT GETTING WARMER! Certainly not. Y’all, I just upgraded my propane furnace ’cause the old one just wasn’t getting it done. Ya get that? I’m not concerned with upgrading my AC. Last Summer was easy goings. But I did get cold a few times this last Winter, even with the fire insert and gas furnace.
Who knows if an ice age is coming? All I know is that “global warming” is not something that alarms me in the least. I’m certainly not seeing it on my end.
I’ve noticed, from living in Illinois, that it seems like our fall season goes a bit later and our spring starts later. For the past couple years especially, our spring in Chicago seems to have started much later…and looking at your map of the U.S., Chicago’s smack dab in the middle of the colder temperature differences.
http://chicagoismynewblog.wordpress.com/
4-8 inches of snow expected here in southeastern Michigan tonight. That’s certainly not unheard of, but on the other hand it doesn’t sound much like warming either.
It’s too late for us in the UK. Our “government” has already passed a ‘Climate Change Bill’ which is going to beggar the country, despite their best Hansenesque massaging of the figures given in this article.
http://www.telegraph.co.uk/comment/columnists/christopherbooker/5105923/Yet-more-mind-boggling-figures-on-global-warming.html
Count ye not your spring chickens. And always remember old country sayings; they are the product of far more solid evidence than anyone can produce in a lab or a computer. My favourite, in the context of spring, is “for every fog in March there’ll be a frost in May”.
A foggy March would cause the rural folks to delay planting-out delicate seedlings until the end of May, a non-foggy March and they would do it in the middle of May to get an extra couple of weeks of flowering/cropping. They knew things change from year to year and that certain physical phenomena in one period of the year were a very strong indicator of others a little while later.
A widespread practice in the south of England is to plant main-crop seed potatoes on Good Friday. That can mean a difference of a month between the earliest and latest plantings because the dates of Easter and, therefore, Good Friday are set according to a particular phase of the moon. Perhaps the olde worlde potato growers were satisfied of a connection between the moon and optimum growing conditions.
We appear to be falling into the Mole Whacking game Alarmists accuse us of using against their “Science”. Take a look at any of the stories over the past two years and you will find Empirical data such as species behaviors, sea level rising, fish stocks falling, coral bleaching, snow caps melting. Virtually all of these phenomenon are uniquely linked to AGW and imminent global disaster. It reminds me of the comic headline “Scientist Say World Will End Tomorrow – The Poor Will Suffer Most”.
Has anyone seen any news media coverage of the gross discrediting of Mann’s Hockey Stick? Has anyone seen a story questioning why it’s getting colder when it’s supposed to be getting warmer (except those few that attribute the decline over the past six years to AGW)?
While scientific refutation must continue, we also need to recognize and fight the political element of this era. All AGW solutions require government control of every facet of the private lives of individuals. Fear is the only motive that can bring this about. Fear can rationalize behavior modifying taxes and regulations. Fear, as history shows, justifies any form of dealing with opposition from censorship and ridicule to fines and imprisonment.
As noted in the Guest Post by Steven Goddard, Tipping Point In The Media, 31 03 2009, we are approaching a time where fear of economic ruin that we can all see too well is trumping any ginned up fear of Armageddon. We need to flood the local papers with letters, articles, and links to the latest evidence of global warming chicanery. Anthony, Steve McIntyre, Steven Goddard, et al have the global audience. It’s up to us lurkers to create and develop local audiences. Sooner or later the media will follow the subscribers or fail (hopefully to be bought by more balanced interests).
I’m not a climate scientist, not a scientist at all in fact, but I never miss a posting on this and several other blogs. I often read every response in awe and wonder of the incredible scientific and philosophical resources displayed, only to wonder if they are limited to these sites that most of the world has ever seen nor heard of. Don’t let that be so.
.
>>Our “government” has already passed a ‘Climate Change
>>>Bill’ which is going to beggar the country.
And it will do nothing to reduce CO2 emissions. What Britian has done over the last 20 years is to export its manufacturing to China, because it is cheaper. But China does not give a fig about any type of emissions (or worker standards), and so the net result is we have doubled or trebbled the amount of noxious emissions per unit of manufacture – but just transferred them to the other side of the world. Brilliant. So much for Kyoto Protocols and the like.
In fact, on a social level, we have also re-invented slavery in the 21st century, but our neo-slaves live at the other end of the world instead of across the street. Its amazing what Liberal politicians will turn a blind eye to, as long as it keeps our inflation low and the proleteriat happy and quiescent.
However, this is not a situation that will last, because the USA and UK have not even bothered to pay for all these cheap imports from our Chinese slaves (hence our huge balance of payments deficits, and China’s vast stock of US bonds), and China will soon grow tired of giving us goods for free. Stand by for a large cut in our standards of living, as we have to cut our imports to pay back China.
Only then will CO2 emmissions reduce, as manufacturing slowly returns to the West, where there are stricter emissions limitations.
Conclusion – politicians are doing nothing to cut CO2.
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Pierre Gosselin (08:00:47) :
The cold spring was also the order of the day here in Western Europe, that is until only a few days ago when spring finally made its debut.
I still have about 1m of global warming around my house (60N). Granted… some of that is leftover after clearing the roof twice this winter, in fear of structural damage, but not all. We moved here in 1993, and although there have been winters before with significant snow, this winter had more than I have seen here since we moved.
I expect several more weeks to melt the garden snow.
Ah so carbon trading was stolen from Arthur C Clarke’s concept of the mega-watt hour! The big difference is that carbon credit trading is based on baloney science and requires heavy .gov monitoring and a complete invasion of privacy.
John Peter — for what it’s worth, the CET figure for February was 4.1C which was 0.1C below the 1971-2000 average and 0.2C above the average for the whole series. The March figure is 7.0 (Philip Eden in the Telegraph is quoting it as 6.9; not sure why there is a difference) which is 0.7C above the 1971-2000 average and a massive 1.7C above the average for the series.
It’s also sixth warmest of the last 10.
No Wonder Climate Alarmists Refuse to Debate
http://www.americanthinker.com/2009/04/no_wonder_climate_alarmists_re.html
When you hear the names Al Gore and James Hansen in the same sentence you immediately assume the subject to be manmade global warming panic. But there’s another distinction which links these two – they both steadfastly refuse to defend their positions in formal debate. And a recent performance by one of their own in just such a venue reminds us why.
RC TV – Green Politics – pt 1
http://www.rollcall.com/multimedia/tv/33727-1.html
On our current emissions path we are going to warm the United States 10-15 degrees Fahrenheit by the end of the century and sea level rise will be 5 feet or higher and a third of the planet will be desert.”
RC TV – Green Politics – pt 2
http://www.rollcall.com/multimedia/tv/33726-1.html
And so it went — virtually every cogent point made by Morano was met not with reasoned retort but rather polemical blather and name calling. And from Dr. Joseph J. Romm — one the alarmists’ most revered minds.
“The alarmists claim all the evidence supports their theory, but the only way they can prove that is to actually show up for a debate and win. If they are afraid to publicly debate and scientifically defend their assertions, it is a good indication who they fear will win the debate.”
According to Wikipedia, fresh snow has the highest albedo. Looks as though this week will not be nice for the alarmists. I am curious, with all of the snow still on the ground (more so than in recent years I believe) if there is enough additional albedo to actually influence global temperatures short term. Obviously would need global data. Nevertheless could be an interesting impact to watch, particularly in light (npi) of reduced solar irradiance.
There is a saying in the south that you dont plant anything till “after” Easter. That has been proven right more often than not. Low temps here in southern Georgia(50 miles from Florida) tues morning are predicted to hit 28 degrees…a new record low since records have been kept!
Tanner Waterbury (08:04:29) : Washington State spring . . .
Don’t miss it. Set to last all of five days!
WEST
ANOTHER COOL UPPER LEVEL TROUGH BEGINS DIGGING OFF THE COAST ON WEDNESDAY WITH MOST SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT OVER THE AREA. TROUGH CONTINUES TO DIG OFFSHORE ON THURSDAY AND FRIDAY LEAVING WESTERN WASHINGTON IN A COOL SHOWERY PATTERN.
EAST
CLOUDY AND SHOWERY CONDITIONS WILL MEAN TEMPERATURES WILL BE ON A COOLING TREND AFTER ONE MORE DAY OF ABOVE NORMAL READINGS ON WEDNESDAY.
Far off-topic, but someone brought up Sci-fi writers (one of my favorites, Arthur C. Clarke).
If it ever really comes down to it, and we (mankind) need to maintain Arctic ice, here is a blue-sky idea:
What would be the effect of filling in the Arctic Ocean, so that warm ocean currents could not melt away the ice. Would this produce a polar region similar to Antarctica, with a permanent ice cap? Or, would the obvious difference of Antarctica being surrounded by ocean make a difference?
Has anyone heard of such a proposal?
vg, thanks. Theon’s significant speech is now quoted from and hyperlinked in my Primer.
D. King (08:57:39) : wrote . . .
“The silent shriek, of the disappearing Cascade snowpack, is deafening!
Didn’t someone lose their job over that?”
Yes, but I’m not sure exactly what sort of a job it is or was. He did not lose his real job. Since this happened we have had snow up to our …..
http://www.heartland.org/policybot/results/21207/Associate_State_Climatologist_Fired_for_Exposing_Warming_Myths.html
ralph ellis :
Your “pseudo” chinese slaves can do the following: (this is political-economical fiction)
1.Start selling, in all markets, their US Treasure Bonds.
2.Issue Chinese bonds at the same time.
How long will this take? Not longer than 5 minutes.
It would be worst than LIA^2
We have had a normal to mild winter in Greece, but the swallows have not arrived yet. They usually come end of March. Folk wisdom has it that if they swallows are late, there is more cold coming. We shall see. The forecast is for cooling by next weekend.
Reply: Folk wisdom has swallows returning to Capistrano on my birthday. ~ charles the moderator
I am in Nebraska and, no, I am not planting crops today. I am however stoking the fire. It’s nice and warm.
What would be the effect of filling in the Arctic Ocean, so that warm ocean currents could not melt away the ice. Would this produce a polar region similar to Antarctica, with a permanent ice cap? Or, would the obvious difference of Antarctica being surrounded by ocean make a difference?
Has anyone heard of such a proposal?
You mean a floating artificial island that regulates the temperature of polar ice that forms on top of it. Good idea. Much cheaper than forcing a decarbonisation on humanity.