Guest Post by Steven Goddard
As reported by Anthony, RSS satellite temperature data is out for March. And as the Catlin adventurers have discovered, it has been “stupidly cold” in the Arctic. March was the second consecutive month of below normal Arctic temperatures, and the continuation of a four year cooling trend – as seen below. Google’s linest() function shows that since the beginning of 2005, Arctic temperatures have been cooling at a rate of 1.8 degrees C per decade, or 18C per century ( see comments). Also note that Arctic monthly temperature anomaly now is about three degrees lower than in January, 1981.
That short term trend isn’t meaningful, except in the context of the Catlin Expedition and the cold they are experiencing.
http://spreadsheets.google.com/pub?key=pj0h2MODqj3gAmFVOnSFEWQ
Note in the graph below, the huge drop in temperatures since the Catlin expedition started two months ago. Is this another example of The Gore Effect? Or, perhaps it is the “observer effect‘? Humor aside, the graph below tells the story of the cold the Catlin Expedition must be experiencing.
http://spreadsheets.google.com/pub?key=pj0h2MODqj3gAmFVOnSFEWQ
This cooling is reflected in increasing amounts of winter ice since 2005. Not surprisingly, as the temperature gets colder, the amount of ice increases.
http://www.ijis.iarc.uaf.edu/seaice/extent/AMSRE_Sea_Ice_Extent.png
Below is a longer term view of Arctic temperatures, as measured by Dr. Hansen’s GISS at Godthab, Greenland. The warmest years were the 1920s through 1940s.
How long before we start seeing stories like this one from Time Magazine again?
Another Ice Age?
Monday, Jun. 24, 1974
In Africa, drought continues for the sixth consecutive year, adding terribly to the toll of famine victims. During 1972 record rains in parts of the U.S., Pakistan and Japan caused some of the worst flooding in centuries. In Canada’s wheat belt, a particularly chilly and rainy spring has delayed planting and may well bring a disappointingly small harvest. Rainy Britain, on the other hand, has suffered from uncharacteristic dry spells the past few springs. A series of unusually cold winters has gripped the American Far West, while New England and northern Europe have recently experienced the mildest winters within anyone’s recollection.
As they review the bizarre and unpredictable weather pattern of the past several years, a growing number of scientists are beginning to suspect that many seemingly contradictory meteorological fluctuations are actually part of a global climatic upheaval. However widely the weather varies from place to place and time to time, when meteorologists take an average of temperatures around the globe they find that the atmosphere has been growing gradually cooler for the past three decades. The trend shows no indication of reversing. Climatological Cassandras are becoming increasingly apprehensive, for the weather aberrations they are studying may be the harbinger of another ice age.
There are 10^11 stars in the galaxy. That used to be a huge number. But it’s only a hundred billion. It’s less than the national deficit! We used to call them astronomical numbers. Now we should call them economical numbers.
UPDATE: In response to questions in comments, Steve Goddard located this graph from the Danish Meteorological Institute.
Calculation of the Arctic Mean TemperatureThe daily mean temperature of the Arctic area north of the 80th northern parallel is estimated from the average of the 00z and 12z analysis for all model grid points inside that area. The ERA40 reanalysis data set from ECMWF, has been applied to calculate daily mean temperatures for the period from 1958 to 2002, from 2002 to 2006 data from the global NWP model T511 is used and from 2006 to present the T799 model data are used.
The ERA40 reanalysis data, has been applied to calculation of daily climate values that are plotted along with the daily analysis values in all plots. The data used to determine climate values is the full ERA40 data set, from 1958 to 2002.
So it is a model, not an observation.
Adolfo,
President Obama explained the economic crisis to The Guardian here. Worth a read.
http://www.guardian.co.uk/world/2009/apr/03/g20-barack-obama-nick-robinson-question
But if the Greens and the Climate Doom-mongers are so concerned about man’s impact on the environment, then why do they not campaign against population increase??
They do! Not just verbally but through campaigning against living essentials.
-Banning DDT. Result – millions dying.
-Banning BFRs. Result – fires and explosions.
-Campaign to ban chlorine. Result – millions without drinkable water, disease, death.
-Campaigns against consuming meat and milk. Result, nutritional deficiency among the poor.
-Campaign against CO2. Result, global cooling and death of plant life which results in death of all species. Planet saved!
“Climatological Cassandras”? I like it! Had to look her up though.
http://www.loggia.com/myth/cassandra.html
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Cassandra
Remember the movie 12 Monkeys? It was about a time traveller from a freezing future who has come to prevent the catastrophe that killed most of humanity. To do it, he has to stop a gang led by a rich young eco-warrior from unleashing apocalypse. Won’t post spoilers but there’s a mad James Hansen-like scientist with a briefcase who is infatuated by the idea of a holocaust.
ron (09:41:09) :
Hilariously Channel 4 UK is tonight showing The Day After Tomorrow followed immediately by An Inconvenient Truth.
I’ll buy a big bag of Doritos and popcorn for this sci-fi horror double bill.
True. However, I’ve got the entire box set of Buffy The Vampire Slayer to get through.
Let’s see. Sci-Fi with Al Gore or Sci-Fi with Sarah Michelle Gellar. Tough one that!
Anthony,
I think the DMI T799 temperature data uses an averaging model based on a grid of measured temperatures.
Military buoys show that Arctic temperatures have been steadily going down since July.
http://imb.crrel.usace.army.mil/buoy_plots/met2006C.gif
Anthony,
I think the DMI T799 temperature data uses an averaging model based on a grid of measured temperatures.
Military buoys show that Arctic temperatures have been steadily going down since July.
http://imb.crrel.usace.army.mil/buoy_plots/met2006C.gif
PS: Forgot to mention great post!
Anthony and Steven: Thanks. I just got back from an errand and was about to try to track down the temperatures for the Catlin expedition. Glad I stopped back here first.
The actual drops in temperature at the locations of the Catlin expedition are much more impressive and factual than the implied impact of a decrease in anomaly for the entire Arctic.
Regards
Most of the news agencies are reporting a massive ice shelf broke off in Antarctica.
Channel 4 says An Inconventient Truth, which starts after the break, is “riveting but never patronising”.
Now I’ve seen everything. Channel 4 has sunk to the depths by saying a politician isn’t patronising.
Catlin has covered 23.5% of the distance and has 42 days more walking to do (being generous: 778/17 pace over the last couple of days – not the 118 days on 778/6 average to date).
“Ann is also feeling the effects of 2 weeks relentless trekking, and today is feeling physically utterly exhausted”
And Martin has frostbite and Pen maybe has hypothermia.
http://www.catlinarcticsurvey.com/live_from_the_ice.aspx
Good news they have some carbon-fuelled supplies coming in
” Steven Goddard (09:32:57) :
Arctic summers ice-free ‘by 2013′
By Jonathan Amos
Science reporter, BBC News, San Francisco”
I’ve had a few emails with Jonathan Amos and he really believes this stuff. He took a course on climate science at the OU and seems to have bought it hook line and sinker. Either that or he just milking the cow like everyone else in the AGW community. We will need to bring back the free milk soon (I was a milk monitor and proud of it) else the AGW community will be malnourished.
A discussion in a recent WUWT thread discussed that post El Nino events the warm water spreads and at extreme lattitudes the heat is lost to space (at least I hope that quick synopsis is correct). Would anyone care to speculate how long the heat is retained in the arctic waters, before being lost completely?
What I am wondering is, for the super El Nino of 1998, how long did the heat it take to get to the arctic? Could we assume that the higher than normal temperatures persisted for a few years, perhaps up to 2004?
Slightly off topic, but Steve’s use of the Sea Ice Extent graph raised a question that has bothered me for quite a while. It strikes me that using sea ice extent as measure of Arctic climate is inherently biased to overemphasize any drop in summer ice extent. Since the Arctic is bounded by land masses to large degree and it takes fairly extraordinary conditions to expand the ice beyond normal conditions in the unbounded areas the upside of ice extent is up against a fairly hard limit, which means that any increase in summer melting can’t be balanced by rebound in winter freezing. It’s kind of an inverse of the argument about the expanding income gap, which always grows because $0 is always $0. Or am I missing something here?
Getting sick of watching AIT now. Got that acidic vomity feeling in my throat. Every scene looks like an Apple advert and has a couple of scientific errors. Just Al Gore’s way to make money out of carbon trading and increase the value of his remaining Apple shares (he sold a massive chunk just before the bottom fell out of the market)
There was no disclaimer at the start as there was for Durkin’s documentary despite the high court ruling.
“Paraphrasing Brasil´s President Lulla, about the current economic crisis, as having being originated by ‘blue eyed people’, it seems that all this funny “climate crisis” has the same origin
I agree. This has always been about leukophobia.
“many climate scientists believe this [Redoubt] will result in a temporary negative feedback on the climate”
How long before the warmers fall back on this to support their case (it would have got warmer, but for the volcano..)?
Re: MikeN (07:31:54) :
“>as the temperature gets colder, the amount of ice increases.
This isn’t true, and you shouldn’t state this without qualification.
For example in Antarctica, with global warming, you get more ice,
because it is still too cold to melt the ice, but the surrounding warmer waters produce more precipitation. ”
Anthony is correct. In the Arctic, it’s the sea that freezes — the ice is not coming from precipitation, as in the Antarctic — so yes; in the Arctic, the colder it is the more ice is formed.
Regarding extreme extrapolations from few points or a relatively short time period:
An intelligent collegue (my office mate at the time) had data for an additive he invented at 0 and 3 percent (2 ponts). He extrapolated to 70 percent and concluded he had invented the next big thing. I was incredulous that he should do that.
He wrote the report for publication saying so — the boss rejected it — there was a fistfight in the hallway with blood drawn — my office mate was “let go”. And, yes, time proved him wrong (not that it wasn’t obvious).
Its amazing how subjective some scientists can be.
I’ve been studying the phenomena of leukophobia for quite a few years but never had a word for it until now. Thanks for the links. It’s the same inverted racism expressed by the Suzanne Goldenberg article we discussed.
Ellie in Belfast: You asked, “What I am wondering is, for the super El Nino of 1998, how long did the heat it take to get to the arctic?”
In “Oceanic and atmospheric transport of multiyear El Nino–Southern Oscillation (ENSO) signatures to the polar regions”, Jevrejeva et al (2004) write in their abstract, “The 2.2, 3.5 and 5.7 year signals detected in the Arctic are generated about three months earlier in the tropical Pacific Ocean.”
Then in the conclusion they clarify it: “We provide evidence of ENSO influence on the winter climate variability in NH during the last 150 years via signals in the 2.2, 3.5, 5.7 and 13.9 year bands. The contribution from the signals to the total variance is relatively weak, varies considerably with time, but is statistically significant. Phase relationships for the different frequency signals suggest that there are different mechanisms for distribution of the 2.2–5.7 year and the 13.9 year signals. The 2.2–5.7 year signals are most likely transmitted via the stratosphere, and the AO mediating propagation of the signals, through coupled stratospheric and tropospheric circulation variability that accounts for vertical planetary wave propagation.”
Back in the abstract Jevrejeva write, “In contrast, we show that the 13.9 year signal propagates eastward from the western Pacific as equatorial coupled waves (ECW, 0.13-0.15 ms-1), and then as fast boundary waves (1-3 ms-1) along the western margins of the Americas, with a phase difference of about 1.8-2.1 years by the time they reach the Arctic.”
And they explain in the conclusion, “The delay of about two years in the 13.9 year signals detected in polar region can be explained by the transit time of the 13.9 year signal associated with ECW (0.13–0.17 ms_1) propagation in the Pacific ocean, KBW (1– 3 ms_1) propagation along the western margins of the Americas and by poleward-propagating of atmospheric angular momentum [Dickey et al., 2003]. This mechanism is supported by similar features in the Pacific sector of the Antarctic SST field.”
FYI, ECW = equatorial coupled waves and KBW = Kelvin boundary waves.
In “The interdecadal variation characteristics of arctic sea ice cover-Enso-East asian monsoon and their interrelationship at quasi-Four years time scale” (How’s that for a paper title?), [2007], Congwen et al found sea ice lags ENSO event by 6 to 9 months.
http://www.iapjournals.ac.cn/aas/ch/reader/create_pdf.aspx?file_no=990413&flag=1&journal_id=aas
You asked, “Could we assume that the higher than normal temperatures persisted for a few years, perhaps up to 2004?”
In addition to the Jevrejeva paper, refer to my post “The Lingering Effects of the 1997/98 El Nino.” I illustrated how the SST anomalies for the East Indian and West Pacific Oceans dropped very little in the years afterwards. Then the 2002/03 El Nino bumped the SST anomalies for that area back up again. Could the same lingering effects apply to the Arctic? Possibly.
http://bobtisdale.blogspot.com/2008/12/lingering-effects-of-199798-el-nino.html
I also prepared a post on the effects of volcanic eruptions and ENSO events on high latitude temperature volatility.
http://bobtisdale.blogspot.com/2009/01/enso-and-volcanic-aerosols-explain-most.html
Hope that helps.
USA: 358 lowest temps and 409 snowfall records broken for week ending Apr 2, 2009
http://mapcenter.hamweather.com/records/7day/us.html?c=maxtemp,mintemp,snow
(are some of the red dots UHI? You can mouse over the dots for data)
Sorry for the OT, I found a healthy problem with RegEM in the antarctic paper.
http://noconsensus.wordpress.com/2009/04/04/whats-wrong-with-regem/
I had a look at the article cited by JohnH, (09:19:35) :
” This is a keeper. The claims in the article are hilarious.
http://www.nzherald.co.nz/climate-change/news/article.cfm?c_id=26&objectid=10482139
”
Truly absurd, but then it is from Reuters who recycle every Press release.
One glaring idocy in the above article, ” … where for the first time in recorded history, ships sailed across the Arctic Ocean in water that had been part of the polar ice cap, said Donald Perovich of the US Army Cold Regions Research and Engineering Laboratory in New Hampshire.”
Must be a pretty small recorded history.
Looking at the Hansen’s Godthab graph one could conclude that ice extent at the North Pole is dependent on more than just surface temperature. When I compare Godthab to Arctic sea ice extent since 1900I don’t see much of a correlation.
As compassionate beings we must wish these three zealots a safe return.
Because we are only human, I’ve indulged myself with conjecturing on what their approach to ice will be whence they are back in good old carbon-spewing civilization:
1. They’ll never put ice in their highballs, again – ever.
2. They’ll put their freezers in permanent defrost mode.
3. “White Christmas” will be banished from their song books .
4. . . . . . I’m working on others . . . . ;0)
John H (09:59:31) :
“The Inconvenient Day After Truth”
You, sir, will be hearing from my attorneys. Someone has to pay to clean this cola off my monitor, and surgically repair the nostril that ejected it. J/k, of course. Funny stuff.