Guest post by Steven Goddard
Weather is not climate, but 49 out of 50 states agree – spring is getting off to a cold start.
How will these blue states vote on “cap and trade?” Someone needs to take responsibility for this runaway global warming, which is purported by a top scientist from the University of Colorado to be killing off the ski industry .
Tuesday, December 16, 2008
DENVER – A study of two Rocky Mountain ski resorts says climate change will mean shorter seasons and less snow
Winter 2007-2008 was the snowiest ski season on record in Colorado.
Eight Colorado ski resorts see record snow
Silverton Mountain, which stopped running lifts Sunday, reported the greatest record-breaking snowfall, with 550 inches. Steamboat came in second, with 489 inches.
January, 2008 was the snowiest month on record in the Northern Hemisphere, with nine out of the last eleven January’s above normal.
Source: http://climate.rutgers.edu/snowcover/png/monthlyanom/nhland01.png
So how is the current ski season looking? Wolf Creek ski area in southwestern Colorado has received a paltry 10 metres of snow so far this winter.
Summit Base Depth : 110 inches
Last 24 Hours : 1 inch
Last 48 Hours : 2 inches
Last 72 Hours : 2 inches
Midway Base Depth : 105 inches
Last 7 Days : 20 inches
Latest Storm : 2 inches
Year to Date : 398 inches
with lots more snow on the way.
Accuweather snow forecast for this weekend
But remember – weather is not climate. and computer models should always supersede observation.
@crosspatch & Roger Sowell
Following is an internal “pat ourselves on the back” news release at our company. I have no idea if a similar study would reveal problems in California’s modeling.
BC STUDY LEADS NEBRASKA OFFICIAL TO REVERSE WATER USE DECISION
4/2/2009
The director of the Nebraska Department of Natural Resources Brian Dunnigan announced on March 30 that he would reverse his decision to restrict water use in the lower Platte River Basin. Earlier in the year, the department had issued a preliminary determination that the river was “fully appropriated,” which would limit use and prohibit any additional surface water rights, well permits or new irrigation in the region.
Hundreds of farmers and others criticized the ruling, as it would severely limit water supply that reaches approximately one third of the state. The state’s Natural Resources Districts called for a technical and regulatory review of the data, methods, approach and modeling used to support the preliminary determination. Brown and Caldwell was awarded the project, and the findings led to the reversal of the preliminary determination. The review was led by Julie Wright (Phoenix), Matt Lindburg (Denver) and Brent Cain (Sacramento) with assistance from national modeling expert Frank Schwartz of Ohio State University.
The team found several misapplications of the rules and regulations, a misinterpretation of the method for calculating crop water needs and a gross over-estimate of groundwater pumping that was carried forward 25 years into the future in the groundwater model. A report was submitted as evidence and Julie Wright presented the findings at a public hearing, after which the state corrected the errors in calculations, re-ran the model and re-evaluated the water supplies in the basin.
The chairman of the Nebraska Legislature’s Natural Resources Committee agreed with the ruling, saying, “Information questioning the accuracy of the scientific methodology used was provided at the hearings. The Director should be commended for considering and using that information to reverse his decision, which was based on an erroneous method in the initial study.” This marks the first time the state has reversed a preliminary determination.
Snow Depth at Alta Ski Resort(Today 3 April) in Utah has a base at midmountain of 162 inches of snow, with 13 inches additional in the last 24 hours and 27 inches for the last 48 hour. This season will probably not set a record, but will be near the record (70 year data base).
Last year Steamboat set their all time record snow fall: 489 inches. They average 331, so that represents 50% over average. They are sitting at 389 inches this year, 58 inches over average, only three years out of a very severe drought. They’ll surely break 400 inches.
I’m going up to Copper Mountain Sunday. They’re 11 inches over average with another foot expected this weekend.
Breckenridge, right on the other side of the mountain from Copper Mountain, is at 269 inches, about 10% below average for them, but they still have a few weeks to go, so they’ll probably hit their average.
Wolf Creek is at almost 400 inches as noted, but they are actually a bad example to use as snowfall variance in the southern mountains is very high. Wolf Creek average 465 inches, too. Last year was over 500 though they stopped adding to the total at 492 or so (not sure why). The year before was under 400, and the year before that 540 inches.
Every indication I have from people that have been here for a long time is that I picked a good time to learn. 😉
Mark
crosspatch,
By some accounts, the California population grew by 9 million people since 1990, which is almost a 1/3 increase. We know for a fact that the water supply has not grown by 1/3. Therefore, when snowpack is at less than 100 percent of normal, we have a problem. There are some water conservation measures, such as low-flow shower heads and low-flush toilets, and those have worked to some extent. But the limits of conservation are to be reached soon.
I continue to advocate the transport of excess water (from flooding areas) to dry areas (Southwest states). It seems a shame to watch all that perfectly good river water do flood damage, then run out into the ocean, when 1/3 of the land area of the U.S. could really benefit from having it.
http://energyguysmusings.blogspot.com/2009/02/wind-water-farms-and-power-generation.html
Oh, and Loveland and Arapahoe Basin both compete to be the first resort to open every year. They typically both get cold enough to start making snow in September, with opening dates in mid-October. A-Basin, however, often stays open well into June and even closed on July 4th several years ago. It was, fittingly enough, snowing the day they closed that year.
Mark
Here in the Roaring Fork Valley, five ski resorts, Aspen, Highlands, Buttermilk, Snowmass, and Sunlight we have plenty of snow. The lowest resort, Sunlight will close after two more weekends with its highest base for the season. I went out at 7:30 am to get the papers, it was snowing harder than it has all season. We have had at least an inch of moisture in the past seven hours, its has ben a mix of rain and snow for a few hours now in the valley floor. I turned on the NOAA report to see what was up weather-wise. We are to expect a storm tonight with 8-18″ of new snow from 6pm tonight until 6pm Saturday, with highs in the 50s and the possibility of rain showers during the day today. Problem is it will never reach 40, the heavy snow blocked satellite internet reception for six hours, as well as DirecTV reception. When the storm gets here tonight it should be interesting… Anyone using water from the Colorado River should have plenty this year. Aside from the forecast being off today, actually an unusual event, the long range forecasts are consistently too high in temperature. The front range, Denver area, is naturally a desert. Before watering and irrigation, there was nothing other than some sage brush, pear and barrel cactus, and the occasional cottonwood tree only along river banks. The whole buildup of the front range was done in unusually wet conditions for a few decades, which seem to be over. The mountains usually suck all the moisture out of weather systems, dumping it on the western slopes. It is snowing like hell again now, I hope I get to post this.
Since we’re being anecdotal today.
Here in Western Colorado, the question the last few years is WHEN are we going to lose all our fruit. Last year it was April 13, and we lost EVERYTHING, peaches, plums, apples, pears and of course, the apricots, even the lilacs! This year it was last week, hopefully just the apricots.
Last year we were skiing at Beaver Creek with 17 inches of new snow mid April. So we leave the studded tires on now til the end of April. We had to buy an SUV last January because we just couldn’t get over the mountains without 4wd and studs. This year we put studs on two vehicles. In 25 years here we got by without studded tires, (except for totaling two cars on ice and another on an elk).
I wouldn’t say the CLIMATE here has really changed, the four seasons are still Cold, Wind, Dust, and Hunt. but the WEATHER matters and it has been miserable. So many cloudy days! (Cosmic Rays from the quiet sun?
I see that the good professor (in the original article) is hedging his bets, though…
“professor Mark Williams said Monday that the resorts should be in fairly good shape the next 25 years, but after that there will be less snowpack”
In 25 years, most of his critics will either be dead or will be wrestling with Alzheimers!
How fascinating… In my country, temperatures are now 10 deg Centigrades above average. Can anyone tell me what’s the point in publishing this stuff?
J Frey,
Thank you for that. Unfortunately, California decision makers have far too high an opinion of themselves to ever reverse a decision. (the word hubris comes to mind). The fiasco that led to the passage of AB 32, and the subsequent Scoping Plan (road map for implementation) demonstrates this. Every outside expert pointed out that the Scoping Plan was fundamentally flawed and hopelessly optimistic, yet it was adopted unanimously by the Air Resources Board. The Scoping Plan states that every $1 invested will produce $2 in benefits.
The Low Carbon Fuel Standard is about to be adopted next in the chain of AB 32 disasters, even though the ARB stated in the LCFS introduction that ethanol does not reduce CO2 emissions, instead it increases them. (btw, this will likely be a smoking gun in the lawsuit against ARB by Tesoro, on this very issue of ethanol in gasoline).
AB 32’s Tire Pressure Regulation is another fiasco waiting to happen. It was adopted very recently despite heavy criticism from industry experts. see my entry on this one at
http://sowellslawblog.blogspot.com/2009/04/tire-inflation-rule-causes-liability.html
California is not a place that should be looked to for leadership, on anything. I always knew Nebraska had a better handle on things. There is just something about agriculture and modern farmers who live close to the land that provides sound judgement. (not that everyone in NE is a farmer, of course).
At Snoqualmie Pass Summit (Elv 3020 ft, I-90 in WA) there was about 100″ of uncompacted dry snow on the ground in mid-December 08. Then 19″ of rain fell in 36 hours causing massive flooding throughout western WA. The snow depth was reduced to about 40″. Now there is 114″ of compacted wet snow on the ground following several feet if new snowfall in the past 5 days with no end in sight.
As a long time skier (65 years) I know that the current weather conditions parallel those during the late 60s and early 70s when it was really cold and snowed like hell all winter. We skied top to bottom of the International Run at Alpental Ski Area (Snoqualmie Pass) on 7/4/73 a 2200 vertical feet descent to the base area at 3150 base elevation. There was still 5 feet of snow at the bottom of the run.
Somebody will be fired at NOAA for not changing the color cartridge…
dkemp (08:27:19) :
If you really want to confuse the AGW people, simply learn and start using the correct terminology. God knows they don’t. For instance, “impacts or doesn’t impact long-wave radiation”. Long-wave tells me absolutely nothing, long compared to what? Microwave? I don’t think so. Try “CO2 absorption/emission characteristics in the IR spectral region”. Instead of “three limited ranges of long-wave”, try “three (really? I thought it was only 2) discreet IR wavelengths”. Instead of “water vapor overlaps with CO2” try “H2O interferes with the CO2 absorption frequencies”.
BTW, water liquid and water ice are also present in the atmosphere with varying temporal and spatial distributions, and they also absorb in the IR region, which only serves to multiply the number of IR absorption bands for atmospheric water, which, as far as I know, have not all been identified positively yet. And don’t forget about temperature shifting of absorption frequencies and pressure broadening. And if water has condensed around a nucleus of some other molecule or particle, you have even more absorption frequencies.
By this point in the conversation they should already being calling you names and/or running away to sulk.
And early this week Spokane WA officially recorded their snowiest winter ever with a total snow fall of 93.7″ Last year was the third snowiest with just over 92″
Gordon
Yes I do, but it will take me another 15-20 years to make it happen ;). However, if the Sun stays in its current quiet mode, it might take me a little longer.
Bill
LOL! Some funny stuff posted here, using wonderful sarcastic logic. The one that really got me LingOL was “If it didn’t happen, GW prevented it from happening.” That’s so darn funny, cuz when you think about it, sometimes we don’t know what didn’t happen, ya know? That makes GW into a deity, since it knows all before we even know it “didn’t happen!” Thank you, DontGetOutMuch!
Oh man, and this one: “Compter models should always supercede observation.” I’m cryin’ over here! thank you, Bobby Lane!
Flanagan (11:20:48) :
“How fascinating… In my country, temperatures are now 10 deg Centigrades above average. Can anyone tell me what’s the point in publishing this stuff?”
The same point that AGW true-believers have when publishing their “stuff.”
What is good for the goose, surely is good for the gander?
To those university of Colorado “researchers” Wanna bet?
I particularly like the claim in the article of 10.4 degrees warming. What fantastic precision on a number that is a wild guess based on garbage.
This is just plain embarassing.
Who you gonna believe, the computer models or your lying eyes?
crosspatch (08:42:43) :
When you choose to live in the desert you should expect to have dry weather.
The water projects that made the deserts bloom in CA were never intended to supply 30+ million people living in large urban centers, yet that is now the expectation of politicians.
If new reservoirs are built it will have impacts on streams that many influential environmentalists consider taboo. If the reservoirs can be built with little or no impact to the streams, the same environmentalists will oppose them because someone might be able to build and expand communities (another taboo).
I would suggest you Californians move to place with either more water or less environmentalists, but that would place an un-necessary burden on the water supplies and people who already have too many ex-Californians there (or too many environmentalists).
That leaves you Californians with only two options: 1- stop voting in idiots who cave to the environmentalists, or 2- stop watering your lawns and get used to desert living.
Off Topic
Link at: http://hotair.com/archives/2009/04/03/cap-and-trade-gets-big-pushback-in-senate/
Cap and trade gets big pushback in Senate
Barack Obama suffered a major defeat in his quest to impose a cap-and-trade system on the US energy sector last night, as the Senate formally rejected any attempt to pass such a scheme through budget reconciliation rules. In fact, two-thirds of the Senate voted against such a move, with 26 Democrats crossing the aisle to protect the filibuster for cap-and-trade legislation (via The Corner):
Please pass Al Gore a Valium — and better make it a double — because his cap-and-trade dreams just took a dive in the U.S. Senate. In a vote late Wednesday, no fewer than 26 Democrats joined all 41 Republicans to insist that any new cap and tax on carbon energy would require at least 60 votes.
Tennessee Republican Lamar Alexander called it “the biggest vote of the year” so far, and he’s right. This means Majority Leader Harry Reid can’t jam cap and tax through as part of this year’s budget resolution with a bare majority of 50 Senators. More broadly, it’s a signal that California and East Coast Democrats won’t be able to sock it to coal and manufacturing-heavy Midwestern states without a fight. Senators voting in favor of the 60-vote rule included liberals from Wisconsin, Michigan and West Virginia. Now look for Team Obama to attempt to impose cap and tax the non-democratic way, via regulation that hits business and local governments with such heavy costs that they beg Congress for a less-harmful version
WakeUpMaggy (11:05:16) :
We’re spending Memorial weekend in 11-mile Canyon, and I’m worried we might still be dealing with snow, hehe. We were going to go down to the 30-mile Campground (outside of Creede), but can’t get there till Saturday, and they won’t let you book for only 2 days that weekend. 30-mile will definitely still have snow on the ground as they did down to 10000 feet last JULY!!!
And 30-mile is a southern mountain (also near Silverton). 11-mile Canyon is only an hour from CO Springs, however.
Mark
As I’m sure the pro-AGW mantra will claim that above average snow is consistent with the models, can we get them to show this as a benefit for AGW as Australians who are visiting the Rocky Mountains/Alaska (me in May) rarely have the opportunity to see snow.
Ok who is the wise guy who sent us snow today??? Hmmm maybe Gore was flying over or something:) Its been a cold wet winter here in Idaho. I would say though that it has been more of a normal winter then in any way abbynormal. I wonder what is the effect of all of this relocated moisture? But its gonna be a steamy spring probably followed by a forest fire summer, complete with orange sun.
Im wondering if we arent feeling the Redoubt erruption, the weather has been sort of freeky this past week or so.. rain in the sun, hail ect.. I know its supposed to be a localized effect being so far north but if you looked at the dispursal pattern that space weather had… (its gone from there but can be seen here http://www.komonews.com/weather/blog/42202637.html?blog=y ) it got dispursed pretty nicely and has blown since.
For you folks in CA our canal to CA is already up and running.. (dont you folks worry, we send you most of ours even though they swear they dont.
Flanagan (11:20:48) :
How fascinating… In my country, temperatures are now 10 deg Centigrades above average. Can anyone tell me what’s the point in publishing this stuff?
To bug you, Flanagan, why else? Reading comprehension is a good skill to have. Try it sometime.