Spring voting chooses Blue States/Red States

Guest post by Steven Goddard

Weather is not climate, but 49 out of 50 states agree – spring is getting off to a cold start.

NCEP temperature forecast - click image for source

How will these blue states vote on “cap and trade?”  Someone needs to take responsibility for this runaway global warming, which is purported by a top scientist from the University of Colorado to be killing off the ski industry .

Tuesday, December 16, 2008

DENVER – A study of two Rocky Mountain ski resorts says climate change will mean shorter seasons and less snow

Winter 2007-2008 was the snowiest ski season on record in Colorado.

Eight Colorado ski resorts see record snow

Silverton Mountain, which stopped running lifts Sunday, reported the greatest record-breaking snowfall, with 550 inches. Steamboat came in second, with 489 inches.

January, 2008 was the snowiest month on record in the Northern Hemisphere, with nine out of the last eleven January’s above normal.


Source: http://climate.rutgers.edu/snowcover/png/monthlyanom/nhland01.png

So how is the current ski season looking? Wolf Creek ski area in southwestern Colorado has received a paltry 10 metres of snow so far this winter.

Summit Base Depth : 110 inches

Last 24 Hours : 1 inch

Last 48 Hours : 2 inches

Last 72 Hours : 2 inches

Midway Base Depth : 105 inches

Last 7 Days : 20 inches

Latest Storm : 2 inches

Year to Date : 398 inches

with lots more snow on the way.

Accuweather snow forecast for this weekend

But remember – weather is not climate. and computer models should always supersede observation.

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Don B
April 3, 2009 6:14 am

The anamolies are from 4/3 to 4/9; is this a forecast?

Dell Hunt, Michigan
April 3, 2009 6:18 am

Unfortunately that storm hitting the plains this weekend is headed our way on Monday and Tuesday.
Oh Well.

Mike from Denver
April 3, 2009 6:34 am

I just got back form 4 days of spring break in Steamboat Springs, CO. 🙂 They had 33 inches of now this past Sunday and Monday.
Current season is in the top 5 of the past 15 and local weather forecaster said the storms in the Pacific are lined up like planes headed for DIA (Denver International Airport).

Ryan Welch
April 3, 2009 6:35 am

I am snowboarding in Utah and there has been so much snow that all the ski resorts are still open even though the season is over. Also the locals are worried about flooding when the snow finally melts. Today the forcast is for another 3 – 7 in. So I should have plenty of fresh powder.

Bobby Lane
April 3, 2009 6:44 am

Yes, Don, it is a forecast. Note that the graphic says “Temperature FORECASTS from the National Centers for Environmental Prediction” (caps mine). The set up is…here is how it’s looking, and here is how it’s been. But “remember – weather is not climate. And computer models should always supercede observation.”

April 3, 2009 6:53 am

In New Hampshire, local media gave up reporting that stuff in December 2007. I had 52.5 inches of snow that month, and the state had more snow for the season than any in the previous 100 years or more.
See http://wermenh.com/sdd/ne-0708.html

Frank Mosher
April 3, 2009 6:56 am

I look at this web site daily. The 7 day forecasts tend to be fairly accurate. Interestingly almost all the continental land areas are forecast to see substantial precipitation, in general. The Amazon Bassin has seen huge rainfall over the last few months, which is forecast to continue. fm

April 3, 2009 6:56 am

Until Wednesday, we had winter in Czechia. Now we have summer (although some people around are still skiing today) and it is beautiful. 😉

Douglas DC
April 3, 2009 6:57 am

Getting the best snow yet here in NE Oregon- http://www.anthonylakes.com/pin/
and Oregon state says-no more snow tires….

April 3, 2009 6:58 am

This is starting to become the normal every year. where it gets cold again on april and it’s been a cool spring so far .One off topic issue I just saw on accuweather global warming blog is that they say the beginning of Artic ice melt season has started.Two thing that i’m unsure of is since we saw the faulty equipment on Anthony Watts site that showed the big drop in ice and then to find out the ice was indead still there .The other is they say the end of ice season is Feb 28th.So does that mean on March 1st ,which by the way there was a large southeast and east coast snowstorm,the ice starts leaving????? RIGHT I BELIEVE THAT TOO.

April 3, 2009 7:06 am

The future historians will name this era as :
The decline and fall of the western civilization.
Chapter I: The Global Warming Hysteria.
Chapter II: Cap and Trade systems and its economic consequences

April 3, 2009 7:08 am

This post should note, also, that, while weather is not climate, weather is what actually matters. Not to mention that it is the individual values which determine the mean, not the other way around.

April 3, 2009 7:10 am

I am looking forward to my drive to work in the snow on Sunday morning, could be worse I could be in norfolk, NE instead of Omaha

April 3, 2009 7:13 am

A cold start and also a late start…following the lunar calendar.

April 3, 2009 7:15 am

Its been a cool spring in Texas though we had a sunny winter.
One of our engineers spends summer in Alaska and he said this spring has reminded him of last summer in Alaska – cool and clear.
Our average last frost is the 13 th of March, but we had a heavy frost last week – very late. And the models are showing a possible hard freeze for the 7th.

P Folkens
April 3, 2009 7:19 am

I remember back in the mid-70s amongst the concerns about a new ice age coming. I worked in a mountaineering shop then and was quite pleased that the ski season would be long and cold. It warmed going into the 80s instead.
Now, amongst the concerns about global warming, ski resorts fear the worst—warm trend. However, it appears the trend is cooling.

April 3, 2009 7:29 am

I suspect the NH will begin to experience cool weather events later and later in the year. Try as they may the AGW crowd will have a hard time explaining cold and snow events not seen so late in the year for a very long time. Maybe even into early summer. Thanks Anthony for staying on top of things.

Leon Brozyna
April 3, 2009 7:33 am

Yeah, I know, it’s all global warming.
More snow than ‘normal’? — it’s global warming.
Less snow than ‘normal’? — it’s global warming.
Colder than ‘normal’? — it’s global warming.
Warmer than ‘normal’? — it’s global warming.
Interesting forecast. The way I treat forecasts is that anything more than 24 hours out is a curiosity; if the forecast is right, they got lucky. And sometimes they can’t even get the next day’s forecast right!
But what about climate forecasting models? If they get a large enough super computer, won’t the forecast get better? Doubt it. It’s just a larger trash compacter; what comes out is still trash, just more of it.

Mark Wagner
April 3, 2009 7:34 am

computer models should always supersede observation.
I like the way you just kinda ease that in at the end. almost blew tea out my nose.

April 3, 2009 7:38 am

North Dakota and northern Minnesota (my area of coverage) is going on our 5th straight month of well below average temperatures. We have seen below average temps for 12 out of the last 16 months in an already cold climate. A pattern shift can’t come soon enough. Plus we have a second crest of the Red River coming to Fargo in about 10 to 20 days depending on the weather.

April 3, 2009 7:39 am

Computer models are not science. They are mathematics and theoretical exercises at best.
Engineers know models are not reality, else why would they need to test the bridge components … LOL.

April 3, 2009 7:54 am

Did you mean Jan 09???
“January, 2008 was the snowiest month on record in the Northern Hemisphere, with nine out of the last eleven January’s above normal.”
Mt Redoubt may bring colder ’09-10 winter

Gordon Ford
April 3, 2009 7:56 am

Thanks to AnthropogenicGlobalWarming (and the PDO) here on the Wet Coast of Canada the local ski resorts are extending the ski season to late April and indeed Blackcomb will be open year round for skiing. For the last several months the daily temperatures have been running about 3 to 4 decrees C below “normal” and April snow storms are becoming the norm.
Oh! for a horrid El Nino.
Does anyone know how to switch the PDO back to warm?

April 3, 2009 8:02 am

“But remember – weather is not climate. and computer models should always supersede observation.” I m beginning to see this sort of humour appearing in many different places. Surely, when this starts, it cannot be too long before AGW simply disappears.

April 3, 2009 8:04 am

I have for sale excellent plans for igloos: singles, duplexes, and four-plexes.
Looks like we’re gonna need ’em.

April 3, 2009 8:05 am

“is this a forecast?”
Yes. We expect lows in the 20s here in NC next week….

John H.
April 3, 2009 8:06 am

The warmers are right…
One year anomaly means little to an environmental pattern. You must look at temperature and environmental changes on a decadel basis to understand the warming trend.
Problem is.. We have seen a different trend now for 10 years.
Sun is still silent, means more cloud cover. Means cooler planet. CO2 means plants grow faster.

April 3, 2009 8:08 am

California continues to face snow shortage:
“The Department of Water Resources’ (DWR) fourth snow survey of the winter season indicates snowpack water content is 81 percent of normal for the date, statewide.“A below-average snowpack at this time of year, especially following two consecutive dry years is a cause for concern,” said DWR Director Lester Snow. “Our most critical storage reservoirs remain low, and we face severe water supply problems in many parts of our state. Californians must continue to save water at home and in their businesses.” ” — this from 02 April 2009

Jean Meeus
April 3, 2009 8:10 am

Again those “anamolies”!
Don, it’s anomalies. Think about the word ‘abnormal’.

Mike Kelley
April 3, 2009 8:20 am

Our Beartooth Mountains here in Southern Montana are as white as I have seen them in many years. The runoff will probably be spectacular. It is still snowing every few days down here in the foothills, too. I hope it quits by Memorial Day.

April 3, 2009 8:23 am

Keep up the good work! It’s a shame the politicians wont see sense, or would that stop the ‘green’ taxes?

April 3, 2009 8:27 am

Anthony –
You’ve had a number of articles on some of the basic science behind the climate change issue, but one that i either missed or maybe you haven’t had is on the chemistry and/or physics of carbon dioxide and how it, impacts or doesn’t impact long-wave radiation – for example – i understand that C02 absorbs heat energy across three limited ranges of long-wave, radient energy and that within one of energy ranges, water vapor overlaps with C02
It seems to me that skeptics should be hammering on this one issue as often as possible

April 3, 2009 8:31 am

Snow is predicted for Baseball opening day in Chicago on Monday 4/6. Local elections are on Tuesday.

April 3, 2009 8:35 am

What all of you stick your head in the sand (desertification caused by global warming) people fail to understand is that all of the record cold, record snowfall, and cooling going on does not invalidate AGW. In fact it proves AGW. Remember the rules. If it is hot -> global warming. Cold -> global warming. Dry -> global warming. Wet -> global warming. If something, anything, happens, it was caused by global warming. If it doesn’t happen -> global warming prevented it from happening.
Now that we’ve got that cleared up. To save the planet from yourselves, please stop all activities at once, up to and including breathing. (You are killing the planet by living after all) Oh yes, before you do the moral thing by holding your breath for eternity, please send all of your worldly goods (check, money order, cash, credit card, we’ll take it all) to AsuckerIsBornEveryMinute@BuyMyFakeCarbonOffsets.com. Have a nice day.

April 3, 2009 8:36 am

Nashville, TN forecast is calling for possible snow flurries on Monday and Tuesday of next week. Snow in Tennessee in April? Huh? Where’s that Globull Warming? We need some!!!

April 3, 2009 8:42 am

“California continues to face snow shortage:”
We have an interesting situation here. Two years of 85% snowpack basically results in a “critical drought”. Every year there is a ballot initiative for more money for water projects that never get built. Who knows where the money goes but we haven’t built a major reservoir in a long time. We are pretty much in a situation where we need 100% of “normal” precipitation every year or else the politicians start “regulating” our water … which out here means development, industrial production, agricultural production, etc. We keep voting in more water projects and they keep not building them.
Lord help us if we actually had adequate water and there was no need for state regulation of who does what. Why, that would probably cost legislators millions in campaign donations that would no longer be needed to get your project approved.

April 3, 2009 8:42 am

Looking at the map I have one question – cooler spring mean later planting of crops, right? Lots of dark blue in the corn and wheat belts. Nobody in the media equates colder weather with smaller harvests. Watch that space.

April 3, 2009 8:51 am

dkemp (08:27:19) :
Anthony –
You’ve had a number of articles on some of the basic science behind the climate change issue … water vapor overlaps with C02 ..

I would also recommend that you (and everyone else) take a peek at the article over on the Jennifer Marohasy Site. It talks about water vapor and CO2 and specifically the positive/negative feedback effect. I particularly like this writing because he points out a very fundamental and testable case by which to test the theory that CO2 leads to a strong positive feedback with water vapor. Its really simple. If you take any two places on the planet, with one being very dry (desert) and the other very moist (tropical), both being at same or similar latitude and both being same or similar altitude, which one is going to be consistently hotter than the other? The desert (dry climate) will always be hotter (during the mid-day sun). Granted, this an over simplification of this test, as other factors need to be made similar so you are left with a strong comparison between just the level of water vapor in the air, but, the idea is that you can very simply demonstrate how water vapor is NOT a strong POSITIVE feedback mechanism, but in fact it is a NEGATIVE feedback mechanism that causes not heating, but cooling. Further, if water vapor were a strong positive feedback, then would not all of our tropical zones experience runaway warming on a daily basis?
Anyway, I encourage a glance at the article as he illustrates this point rather well (I think) and sends a pretty clear message how runaway global warming induced by CO2 (or any other gas for that matter) is absolutely impossible (as I believe it is as well).

April 3, 2009 8:52 am

I live in Austin which is pretty far south. I have not run my AC since we bought the house in October, and it looks like at least another week of AC-free living.

April 3, 2009 8:57 am

Oh, and the thing is you very rarely have a “normal” year. “Normal” is just an average over some period of time. You are pretty much as likely to get below “normal” as you are to get above “normal” precipitation and it tends to run in cycles with several years of “below normal” followed by periods of “above normal”. So expecting “average” precipitation and doing any kind of planning around that is just nuts. California can and has had droughts that last for several YEARS at a time and we also have periods when we have flooding for several years in a row.
To get an idea of Sierra snow pack, check the Tioga Pass Road (Yosemite Park) opening dates. You can tell the years when we had massive amounts of snow because the road didn’t open until late June. “Normal” would probably be a May opening and a dry year, an April opening. The opening date has more to do with the disappearance of the avalanche hazard than actually plowing the road surface and that depends on the snow pack in the areas above the road.
1988 is the earliest opening since 1980 on April 29. That was during a multiyear drought period. We had several consecutive years where it opened before the end of May. 1998 was a very wet year and it didn’t open until July. We also had a lot of flooding that winter.
What they should really do is plan for median rainfall, not “average”.

April 3, 2009 9:00 am

We had a frost this morning north of Seattle. Normally everything has been in bloom for a couple weeks. And our Photinia, which is an evergreen in this climate, dropped all its leaves this winter. It’s recovering, but this is the first winter since I’ve been here (2002) that it’s ever dropped more than just a few leaves. And our Camelias still haven’t bloomed, they’re usually done by now.

April 3, 2009 9:02 am

When it’s a warm year, it’s global warming and when it’s cold, it’s part of a normal seasonal variation or incertainty. For them warmer is certainly global warming and cold is squat.
Are you sure they don’t use the Absolute Function in their models? A negative anomaly will always show as a positive anomaly.

April 3, 2009 9:06 am

Jean Meeus (08:10:21) :
Again those “anamolies”!
Don, it’s anomalies. Think about the word ‘abnormal’.
Could it be “analies”? Think of ‘anal’. A good definition could be:
analies: which referers to the pain induced by reading bad climate change science.

matt v.
April 3, 2009 9:08 am

I recently commented on a similar claim for Canada that winter sports were going to have a meltdown in Canada due to global warming. Here is a summary of what I said. Similar argument may apply in parts of US.
This report clearly illustrates the classic mistake of predicting long term climate trends based on picking the current highest short term temperature trend and the worst case scenario of future carbon dioxide trends to predict the entire future climate and ignoring all the past valleys or natural climate temperature lows.[Cool periods]
Predicting that the average cross-country ski season in Quebec will be cut in half in only 10 years and a complete wipe out by 2050 is very unlikely. So are most of the findings of this report. http://www.theglobeandmail.com/servlet/story/LAC.20090330.BCGREEN30/TPStory/Environment
Even European skiers in the Alps find this projection hard to swallow http://news.bbc.co.uk/2/hi/europe/4905666.stm
While it is true that Canadian winters have been warmer than normal for 11 years, what is being totally missed is that the factors that contributed to the warmer Canadian winter climate in the past have changed during the last 3 winters. http://www.msc-smc.ec.gc.ca/ccrm/bulletin/figchartt_e.html?season=Winter&date=2009
Canadian winters during the recent past global warming period [1976-2007].were warmer than normal [25 years out of 33] when both PDO and AMO were both positive and warm. However there were cooler temperatures in 2008 and 2009 when PDO went negative late 2007 and AMO went negative in JAN/2009. Now in 2009 we have the climate situation like that which existed in the past, namely 1964-1976
. Between 1964 and 1976, 8 out of 12 winters were below normal. This type of cooler winters are projected for the next 20-30 years http://www.heartland.org/bin/media/newyork09/PowerPoint/Don_Easterbrook.ppt
So there is likely going to be more snow and ice during the next 2-3 decades if PDO and AMO cycles repeat and hopefully lots of snow for skiing.

Adam from Kansas
April 3, 2009 9:12 am

I think you could take a little stock in that model because it only predicts a week ahead and not 10 to 100 years like the IPCC’s, and the model’s not basing on possibly flawed data either.
It looks like a cold one, but remember it’s just temperature departure, so areas usually in the 80’s may just be at a still warm temp. in the 70’s, but even then it should make a dent in the monthly global temp. anomaly if it’s enough below average.

gary gulrud
April 3, 2009 9:38 am

“It seems to me that skeptics should be hammering on this one issue as often as possible”
Skeptics are overwhelmed with target opportunities, AGW is wrong at every turn. Skeptics should eschew appeasment of warmeners which only incites internecine quarrels and just go for the political kill.

April 3, 2009 9:42 am

It does not matter how much you heat CO2 or whatever gas in the atmosphere, it can not hold it enough time, it goes up and gives its heat off to the space.
May I remember that the earth it is not “closed” not covered with a ceiling?

April 3, 2009 9:48 am

Here on mid-Vancouver Island we had snow on the mornings of April 1 (my wife thought I was playing an April Fool joke when I reported what I saw out the window) and April 2. Nearby Mount Washington Resort (named after Admiral Washington, not George) has 59 of 60 ski runs open, and snow: New 24 Hrs – 2 cm, New 48 Hrs – 19 cm and Mid Mountain Base – 228 cm. I don’t think the ski industry is in trouble on this Pacific island. The ski is falling, the ski is falling, I mean sky…

April 3, 2009 10:03 am

Well Loveland ski area (just west of Denver near the continental divide) is currently posting an expected closing date of May 4, it will be fun to watch when it actually closes.
I remember a decade or so ago they were still doing some unofficial skiing near Loveland basin in June and July. The resort was officially closed but you could hike into snow fields and get in a short run in the height of the summer. I also have a friend that got caught in a blizzard on Loveland pass on July 4 weekend years ago, so it can snow any day of the year above about 8000 ft altitude here.
Latest historical snow fall here in Denver metro is the first week of June, and earliest is the first week of September so the snow free window here in the city is only about 8-9 weeks a year. The way these little snow storms have been rolling through every few days lately we might have a good chance of moving those dates a few days.
Snow from the last storm is still melting, and we expect the next to arrive this evening or tomorrow.
Lack of snow here and in Utah has more to do with drought than heat. If the wind patterns do not carry moisture into the intercontinental mountains we can have very dry winters. Sometimes they are very dry and very cold, and other times they can be very dry and warm.
This news piece is attaching global warming to an issue that has been well known since the 1970’s. The ski areas already are doing artificial snow making on the lower slopes (and have been for decades) and have been talking about local water storage and recycling that snow melt with impoundment ponds for years. I see that “study” as a fishing expedition for funding for more studies or to justify plans already in place to store water, and just make it easier to get it past the local governments and water law folks.

John H.- 55
April 3, 2009 10:27 am

Just like last year I’ll be using my season ski pass at Ht. Hood’s Timberline Lodge well into May.
Of course we have the Palmer lift on the upper glacier open all summer.
About this time last year the most measured depth was 246 inches on the ground.
212 now.
April 3rd, 2009 Updated 10:00 AM
18 degrees Snow Showers
NEW SNOWFALL (in past 24 hours): 12 in.
SNOWFALL (in past 72 hours): 26 in.
BASE DEPTH: 212 in.

J Frey
April 3, 2009 10:42 am

@crosspatch & Roger Sowell
Following is an internal “pat ourselves on the back” news release at our company. I have no idea if a similar study would reveal problems in California’s modeling.
The director of the Nebraska Department of Natural Resources Brian Dunnigan announced on March 30 that he would reverse his decision to restrict water use in the lower Platte River Basin. Earlier in the year, the department had issued a preliminary determination that the river was “fully appropriated,” which would limit use and prohibit any additional surface water rights, well permits or new irrigation in the region.
Hundreds of farmers and others criticized the ruling, as it would severely limit water supply that reaches approximately one third of the state. The state’s Natural Resources Districts called for a technical and regulatory review of the data, methods, approach and modeling used to support the preliminary determination. Brown and Caldwell was awarded the project, and the findings led to the reversal of the preliminary determination. The review was led by Julie Wright (Phoenix), Matt Lindburg (Denver) and Brent Cain (Sacramento) with assistance from national modeling expert Frank Schwartz of Ohio State University.
The team found several misapplications of the rules and regulations, a misinterpretation of the method for calculating crop water needs and a gross over-estimate of groundwater pumping that was carried forward 25 years into the future in the groundwater model. A report was submitted as evidence and Julie Wright presented the findings at a public hearing, after which the state corrected the errors in calculations, re-ran the model and re-evaluated the water supplies in the basin.
The chairman of the Nebraska Legislature’s Natural Resources Committee agreed with the ruling, saying, “Information questioning the accuracy of the scientific methodology used was provided at the hearings. The Director should be commended for considering and using that information to reverse his decision, which was based on an erroneous method in the initial study.” This marks the first time the state has reversed a preliminary determination.

Douglas Taylor
April 3, 2009 10:54 am

Snow Depth at Alta Ski Resort(Today 3 April) in Utah has a base at midmountain of 162 inches of snow, with 13 inches additional in the last 24 hours and 27 inches for the last 48 hour. This season will probably not set a record, but will be near the record (70 year data base).

Mark T
April 3, 2009 10:59 am

Last year Steamboat set their all time record snow fall: 489 inches. They average 331, so that represents 50% over average. They are sitting at 389 inches this year, 58 inches over average, only three years out of a very severe drought. They’ll surely break 400 inches.
I’m going up to Copper Mountain Sunday. They’re 11 inches over average with another foot expected this weekend.
Breckenridge, right on the other side of the mountain from Copper Mountain, is at 269 inches, about 10% below average for them, but they still have a few weeks to go, so they’ll probably hit their average.
Wolf Creek is at almost 400 inches as noted, but they are actually a bad example to use as snowfall variance in the southern mountains is very high. Wolf Creek average 465 inches, too. Last year was over 500 though they stopped adding to the total at 492 or so (not sure why). The year before was under 400, and the year before that 540 inches.
Every indication I have from people that have been here for a long time is that I picked a good time to learn. 😉

April 3, 2009 11:00 am

By some accounts, the California population grew by 9 million people since 1990, which is almost a 1/3 increase. We know for a fact that the water supply has not grown by 1/3. Therefore, when snowpack is at less than 100 percent of normal, we have a problem. There are some water conservation measures, such as low-flow shower heads and low-flush toilets, and those have worked to some extent. But the limits of conservation are to be reached soon.
I continue to advocate the transport of excess water (from flooding areas) to dry areas (Southwest states). It seems a shame to watch all that perfectly good river water do flood damage, then run out into the ocean, when 1/3 of the land area of the U.S. could really benefit from having it.

Mark T
April 3, 2009 11:02 am

Oh, and Loveland and Arapahoe Basin both compete to be the first resort to open every year. They typically both get cold enough to start making snow in September, with opening dates in mid-October. A-Basin, however, often stays open well into June and even closed on July 4th several years ago. It was, fittingly enough, snowing the day they closed that year.

Steve Keohane
April 3, 2009 11:04 am

Here in the Roaring Fork Valley, five ski resorts, Aspen, Highlands, Buttermilk, Snowmass, and Sunlight we have plenty of snow. The lowest resort, Sunlight will close after two more weekends with its highest base for the season. I went out at 7:30 am to get the papers, it was snowing harder than it has all season. We have had at least an inch of moisture in the past seven hours, its has ben a mix of rain and snow for a few hours now in the valley floor. I turned on the NOAA report to see what was up weather-wise. We are to expect a storm tonight with 8-18″ of new snow from 6pm tonight until 6pm Saturday, with highs in the 50s and the possibility of rain showers during the day today. Problem is it will never reach 40, the heavy snow blocked satellite internet reception for six hours, as well as DirecTV reception. When the storm gets here tonight it should be interesting… Anyone using water from the Colorado River should have plenty this year. Aside from the forecast being off today, actually an unusual event, the long range forecasts are consistently too high in temperature. The front range, Denver area, is naturally a desert. Before watering and irrigation, there was nothing other than some sage brush, pear and barrel cactus, and the occasional cottonwood tree only along river banks. The whole buildup of the front range was done in unusually wet conditions for a few decades, which seem to be over. The mountains usually suck all the moisture out of weather systems, dumping it on the western slopes. It is snowing like hell again now, I hope I get to post this.

April 3, 2009 11:05 am

Since we’re being anecdotal today.
Here in Western Colorado, the question the last few years is WHEN are we going to lose all our fruit. Last year it was April 13, and we lost EVERYTHING, peaches, plums, apples, pears and of course, the apricots, even the lilacs! This year it was last week, hopefully just the apricots.
Last year we were skiing at Beaver Creek with 17 inches of new snow mid April. So we leave the studded tires on now til the end of April. We had to buy an SUV last January because we just couldn’t get over the mountains without 4wd and studs. This year we put studs on two vehicles. In 25 years here we got by without studded tires, (except for totaling two cars on ice and another on an elk).
I wouldn’t say the CLIMATE here has really changed, the four seasons are still Cold, Wind, Dust, and Hunt. but the WEATHER matters and it has been miserable. So many cloudy days! (Cosmic Rays from the quiet sun?

James P
April 3, 2009 11:06 am

I see that the good professor (in the original article) is hedging his bets, though…
“professor Mark Williams said Monday that the resorts should be in fairly good shape the next 25 years, but after that there will be less snowpack”
In 25 years, most of his critics will either be dead or will be wrestling with Alzheimers!

April 3, 2009 11:20 am

How fascinating… In my country, temperatures are now 10 deg Centigrades above average. Can anyone tell me what’s the point in publishing this stuff?

April 3, 2009 11:20 am

J Frey,
Thank you for that. Unfortunately, California decision makers have far too high an opinion of themselves to ever reverse a decision. (the word hubris comes to mind). The fiasco that led to the passage of AB 32, and the subsequent Scoping Plan (road map for implementation) demonstrates this. Every outside expert pointed out that the Scoping Plan was fundamentally flawed and hopelessly optimistic, yet it was adopted unanimously by the Air Resources Board. The Scoping Plan states that every $1 invested will produce $2 in benefits.
The Low Carbon Fuel Standard is about to be adopted next in the chain of AB 32 disasters, even though the ARB stated in the LCFS introduction that ethanol does not reduce CO2 emissions, instead it increases them. (btw, this will likely be a smoking gun in the lawsuit against ARB by Tesoro, on this very issue of ethanol in gasoline).
AB 32’s Tire Pressure Regulation is another fiasco waiting to happen. It was adopted very recently despite heavy criticism from industry experts. see my entry on this one at
California is not a place that should be looked to for leadership, on anything. I always knew Nebraska had a better handle on things. There is just something about agriculture and modern farmers who live close to the land that provides sound judgement. (not that everyone in NE is a farmer, of course).

April 3, 2009 11:34 am

At Snoqualmie Pass Summit (Elv 3020 ft, I-90 in WA) there was about 100″ of uncompacted dry snow on the ground in mid-December 08. Then 19″ of rain fell in 36 hours causing massive flooding throughout western WA. The snow depth was reduced to about 40″. Now there is 114″ of compacted wet snow on the ground following several feet if new snowfall in the past 5 days with no end in sight.
As a long time skier (65 years) I know that the current weather conditions parallel those during the late 60s and early 70s when it was really cold and snowed like hell all winter. We skied top to bottom of the International Run at Alpental Ski Area (Snoqualmie Pass) on 7/4/73 a 2200 vertical feet descent to the base area at 3150 base elevation. There was still 5 feet of snow at the bottom of the run.

April 3, 2009 11:36 am

Somebody will be fired at NOAA for not changing the color cartridge…

Larry A. Shaffer
April 3, 2009 11:49 am

dkemp (08:27:19) :
If you really want to confuse the AGW people, simply learn and start using the correct terminology. God knows they don’t. For instance, “impacts or doesn’t impact long-wave radiation”. Long-wave tells me absolutely nothing, long compared to what? Microwave? I don’t think so. Try “CO2 absorption/emission characteristics in the IR spectral region”. Instead of “three limited ranges of long-wave”, try “three (really? I thought it was only 2) discreet IR wavelengths”. Instead of “water vapor overlaps with CO2” try “H2O interferes with the CO2 absorption frequencies”.
BTW, water liquid and water ice are also present in the atmosphere with varying temporal and spatial distributions, and they also absorb in the IR region, which only serves to multiply the number of IR absorption bands for atmospheric water, which, as far as I know, have not all been identified positively yet. And don’t forget about temperature shifting of absorption frequencies and pressure broadening. And if water has condensed around a nucleus of some other molecule or particle, you have even more absorption frequencies.
By this point in the conversation they should already being calling you names and/or running away to sulk.

Richard Patton
April 3, 2009 12:03 pm

And early this week Spokane WA officially recorded their snowiest winter ever with a total snow fall of 93.7″ Last year was the third snowiest with just over 92″

Bill Yarber
April 3, 2009 12:17 pm

Yes I do, but it will take me another 15-20 years to make it happen ;). However, if the Sun stays in its current quiet mode, it might take me a little longer.

April 3, 2009 12:19 pm

LOL! Some funny stuff posted here, using wonderful sarcastic logic. The one that really got me LingOL was “If it didn’t happen, GW prevented it from happening.” That’s so darn funny, cuz when you think about it, sometimes we don’t know what didn’t happen, ya know? That makes GW into a deity, since it knows all before we even know it “didn’t happen!” Thank you, DontGetOutMuch!
Oh man, and this one: “Compter models should always supercede observation.” I’m cryin’ over here! thank you, Bobby Lane!

April 3, 2009 12:30 pm

Flanagan (11:20:48) :
“How fascinating… In my country, temperatures are now 10 deg Centigrades above average. Can anyone tell me what’s the point in publishing this stuff?”
The same point that AGW true-believers have when publishing their “stuff.”
What is good for the goose, surely is good for the gander?

Wondering Aloud
April 3, 2009 12:41 pm

To those university of Colorado “researchers” Wanna bet?
I particularly like the claim in the article of 10.4 degrees warming. What fantastic precision on a number that is a wild guess based on garbage.
This is just plain embarassing.

John Galt
April 3, 2009 12:47 pm

Who you gonna believe, the computer models or your lying eyes?

April 3, 2009 12:47 pm

crosspatch (08:42:43) :
When you choose to live in the desert you should expect to have dry weather.
The water projects that made the deserts bloom in CA were never intended to supply 30+ million people living in large urban centers, yet that is now the expectation of politicians.
If new reservoirs are built it will have impacts on streams that many influential environmentalists consider taboo. If the reservoirs can be built with little or no impact to the streams, the same environmentalists will oppose them because someone might be able to build and expand communities (another taboo).
I would suggest you Californians move to place with either more water or less environmentalists, but that would place an un-necessary burden on the water supplies and people who already have too many ex-Californians there (or too many environmentalists).
That leaves you Californians with only two options: 1- stop voting in idiots who cave to the environmentalists, or 2- stop watering your lawns and get used to desert living.

April 3, 2009 12:51 pm

Off Topic
Link at: http://hotair.com/archives/2009/04/03/cap-and-trade-gets-big-pushback-in-senate/
Cap and trade gets big pushback in Senate
Barack Obama suffered a major defeat in his quest to impose a cap-and-trade system on the US energy sector last night, as the Senate formally rejected any attempt to pass such a scheme through budget reconciliation rules. In fact, two-thirds of the Senate voted against such a move, with 26 Democrats crossing the aisle to protect the filibuster for cap-and-trade legislation (via The Corner):
Please pass Al Gore a Valium — and better make it a double — because his cap-and-trade dreams just took a dive in the U.S. Senate. In a vote late Wednesday, no fewer than 26 Democrats joined all 41 Republicans to insist that any new cap and tax on carbon energy would require at least 60 votes.
Tennessee Republican Lamar Alexander called it “the biggest vote of the year” so far, and he’s right. This means Majority Leader Harry Reid can’t jam cap and tax through as part of this year’s budget resolution with a bare majority of 50 Senators. More broadly, it’s a signal that California and East Coast Democrats won’t be able to sock it to coal and manufacturing-heavy Midwestern states without a fight. Senators voting in favor of the 60-vote rule included liberals from Wisconsin, Michigan and West Virginia. Now look for Team Obama to attempt to impose cap and tax the non-democratic way, via regulation that hits business and local governments with such heavy costs that they beg Congress for a less-harmful version

Mark T
April 3, 2009 12:56 pm

WakeUpMaggy (11:05:16) :
We’re spending Memorial weekend in 11-mile Canyon, and I’m worried we might still be dealing with snow, hehe. We were going to go down to the 30-mile Campground (outside of Creede), but can’t get there till Saturday, and they won’t let you book for only 2 days that weekend. 30-mile will definitely still have snow on the ground as they did down to 10000 feet last JULY!!!
And 30-mile is a southern mountain (also near Silverton). 11-mile Canyon is only an hour from CO Springs, however.

John Trigge
April 3, 2009 1:03 pm

As I’m sure the pro-AGW mantra will claim that above average snow is consistent with the models, can we get them to show this as a benefit for AGW as Australians who are visiting the Rocky Mountains/Alaska (me in May) rarely have the opportunity to see snow.

April 3, 2009 1:12 pm

Ok who is the wise guy who sent us snow today??? Hmmm maybe Gore was flying over or something:) Its been a cold wet winter here in Idaho. I would say though that it has been more of a normal winter then in any way abbynormal. I wonder what is the effect of all of this relocated moisture? But its gonna be a steamy spring probably followed by a forest fire summer, complete with orange sun.
Im wondering if we arent feeling the Redoubt erruption, the weather has been sort of freeky this past week or so.. rain in the sun, hail ect.. I know its supposed to be a localized effect being so far north but if you looked at the dispursal pattern that space weather had… (its gone from there but can be seen here http://www.komonews.com/weather/blog/42202637.html?blog=y ) it got dispursed pretty nicely and has blown since.
For you folks in CA our canal to CA is already up and running.. (dont you folks worry, we send you most of ours even though they swear they dont.

Bruce Cobb
April 3, 2009 1:28 pm

Flanagan (11:20:48) :
How fascinating… In my country, temperatures are now 10 deg Centigrades above average. Can anyone tell me what’s the point in publishing this stuff?
To bug you, Flanagan, why else? Reading comprehension is a good skill to have. Try it sometime.

John F. Hultquist
April 3, 2009 1:29 pm

It is still snowing on the Cascade Mtns. Link to The Summit at Snoqualmie and other resorts is here:
Snow in the past 24 hrs. 48 hrs. 72 hrs.
12 in. 22 in. 33 in. Cumulative depth = 113 in.
I prefer horses to skis – not much riding weather so far this year.

April 3, 2009 1:30 pm

Despite another big snowfall year and cold spring here in NH the voters have elected a complete slate of AGW alarmists to congress the senate and the governor’s office. Cognitive dissonance abounds.

April 3, 2009 1:31 pm

The water system in much of California was put into place by farmers and paid for by farmers.
The current population is > 50% urban and increasingly so.
However, the per capita level of investment in water has fallen off dramatically and most of the money now is spent maintaining the system built by and for farmers.
The fiscal and engineering structure of the current system is unsustainable by any measure.
In fact, most of the public institutions in California are suffering from the same issues – education, transportation, housing, tax base, business, you name it, are now all unsustainable because debt is being used to finance consumption/maintenance rather than adding new capacity or increasing efficiencies.

Bill Illis
April 3, 2009 1:39 pm

A near miss – the Gore effect nearly gets Vegas in April.
Snow hit parts of southern Nevada this aft (and not far from Las Vegas according to the radar).
Yup, Gore was in town today.

April 3, 2009 2:00 pm

Thinking….when “fatty goree” refers to global warming, is he not unconsciously trying to let us know he is suffering of burning hemorrhoids?

April 3, 2009 2:03 pm

“University of Colorado-Boulder geography professor Mark Williams said Monday that the resorts should be in fairly good shape the next 25 years.”
Really, quoting CU professors on anything serious is the moral equivalent of beating up on women and small children.
We can’t even get rid of Ward Churchill, after 6 or 7 faculty committees found him guilty of plagiarism and deliberate falsification of history (not to mention his phony claim to be an Indian).
As elsewhere, the ski resorts are in great shape and a major storm is moving in now (Friday pm), with blizzard conditions fcst for Denver.

Mr Green Genes
April 3, 2009 2:18 pm

One wonders which country Flanagan views as his. It’s clearly not the US, as most people on here (I guess) are posting from there right now and it seems a little on the chilly side from what they are saying.
It’s clearly not the UK either (at least not England) as that’s where I am. Here the temperature has been around 13 -16 C for the last few days, little rain, quite high pressure (no wind so no “alternative energy” from that source) and some morning mist and fog coming in from the North Sea, even where I am which is 70 miles west of London. Also, before driving to the station, I’ve been having to scrape global warming off my windscreen this year too, which is quite unusual for early April.
If it were 10C above normal here, that would imply that the normal for this time of year was approaching freezing point. Hmmm…
Funny old world, isn’t it?

April 3, 2009 2:23 pm

Al Gore:
“Without sustained action, he warned, temperatures could rise 11 degrees in the next 100 years with catastrophic results as ice and snow melt at unprecedented rates, raising the level of the ocean while creating droughts devastating to agriculture and promoting the spread of tropical diseases out of the tropics.”

Now its 11 degrees!? WUWT???
Gets better everyday… When does it finally get to a point where people just say “look, your out of your cotton pickin’ mind!” ??

April 3, 2009 2:26 pm

Bill Illis (13:39:05) : A near miss – the Gore effect nearly gets Vegas in April.
AH HA!!! I knew it! Tell him he missed:P

April 3, 2009 2:26 pm

Speaking of temperatures, Dr. Spencer posted the March update:

April 3, 2009 2:29 pm

It’s funny that skiing is not vilified by environmentalists. You drive up to the mountain, park, and go up and down all day then drive home. A lot of fossil fuels are burned to enable this.
On the other hand its fun. I went skiing at Eldora just up the road from CU Boulder today. The snow was great with 3-4″ of fresh powder and more on the way. If tonight’s and tomorrow’s storm is as expected, I might enjoy more than a foot of new snow on Sunday.

April 3, 2009 2:49 pm

Speaking of anecdotes, my informants tell me that business receipts are down 30% this winter at Aspen. It has nothing to do with the snow, and everything to do with the ECONOMY.
Someday soon, people will again vote their pocketbooks. I feel sure of that. When it happens, AGW will be consigned to the dustbin of history.

April 3, 2009 3:02 pm

Hot In Here is the theme song for Al Gore : The Movie
“(I said)
It’s gettin’ hot in here (so hot)
So take off all your clothes
I am gettin’ so hot
(uh uh uh uh)
I wanna take my clothes off
Oh it’s gettin’ hot in here (so hot)
So take off all your clothes
I am gettin’ so hot
(uh uh uh uh)
I wanna take my clothes off
Yeah yeah come on”

John F. Hultquist
April 3, 2009 3:50 pm

O/T Anthony
WSJ April 3, p. A17 Opinion piece by F. James Sensenbrenner (R., Wisc)
“Technology is the Answer to Climate Change” . . .
. . . as opposed to transfering our wealth to China, India, etc. as they are demanding if the world (UN) demands they cut CO2
It will be easier to say “let’s forget the whole thing!”

Adam from Kansas
April 3, 2009 3:59 pm

I looked at the temps in that link, expected it to come down somewhat because of a falloff in SST’s a few months earlier.
I want to see this month’s SST reading compared to last month’s and see if we can expect temps to go back up or keep going down a few months from now.
Meanwhile BOM.gov’s SOI index has risen very slightly again, too early since it hit 0 to make out where it will go though.

Mike McMillan
April 3, 2009 4:07 pm

But remember – weather is not climate. and computer models should always supersede observation.
Us Strunk & White grammer nazis love it when sombody spells “supersede” corectly.
Also, Galva, is finally up on the SurfaceStation gallery.

Mike McMillan
April 3, 2009 4:09 pm

Galva, is finally up on the SurfaceStation gallery.

April 3, 2009 4:19 pm

Squidly (14:23:23) : “…temperatures could rise 11 degrees in the next 100 years…”
Was that °C or °F?

John F. Hultquist
April 3, 2009 4:22 pm

dkemp (08:27:19) : Larry A. Shaffer (11:49:52) :
. . . the chemistry and/or physics of carbon dioxide
There is much out there to be read – if you can get through it – and what is frequently presented is clumsily presented and frequently not all helpful.
The bottom line, though, seems to be that the smart folks have studied this thoroughly and decided that the CO2 concentration is sufficiently high at 200 ppm or less that it makes little difference that more is added. Thus, the AGW crowd has been promoting and searching for a multiplying factor (various names are used) to the small amount of CO2 being added that it becomes significant. Climate sensitivity seems to be the umbrella under which this search goes on.
You can get an idea of the complexity of this by this:
The CO2 tag is used still because the MSM and most people now know about this. However, the “holy grail” issue is the multiplier.
For an easily readable presentation see Archibald: http://www.davidarchibald.info/papers/The%20Past%20and%20Future%20of%20Climate.pdf
Also, see the part in The Skeptics Handbook , part 4 for a discussion.

Mark T
April 3, 2009 4:26 pm

Randall (14:29:40) :
It’s funny that skiing is not vilified by environmentalists. You drive up to the mountain, park, and go up and down all day then drive home. A lot of fossil fuels are burned to enable this.

Oh my, the resorts go out of their way to make the case they are green. There are at least a few that are claiming 100% green powered, which basically means they pay more for the same electricity than the rest of us. Oh yeah…
Mike D. (14:49:41) :
Speaking of anecdotes, my informants tell me that business receipts are down 30% this winter at Aspen. It has nothing to do with the snow, and everything to do with the ECONOMY.

I did Aspen (Ajax mountain) a few weeks ago. The town was dead. The mountain was empty, though Ajax is apparently not the busiest anyway (it is very steep). On the bright side, we got into Ruth’s Chris for dinner without a problem and only had to pay one cover charge in all the bars we visited. That bar was the only one that had a crowd (they were packed… some hoosier bar with a band, can’t recall the name).

Steven Hill
April 3, 2009 4:29 pm

It’s a shame that we must deal with this cold due to the lack of sunspots.
There was a little black spot on the sun today
It was the same ole spot as yesterday
Where’s the spot NASA?
Could it be that the sun somehow effects the heating on the earth or does 300ppm of CO2 cause it all?
what a joke

April 3, 2009 4:29 pm

“When you choose to live in the desert you should expect to have dry weather.”
I live in Northern California. Not a lot of desert around here. But even so, looking over geological time, California has experienced droughts that have lasted for hundreds of years and we will again. Many Sierra Nevada lakes were tens of meters lower in level than they are today … and not so long ago, either. The wood is still there, thirty or more feet under water, still where it was growing when it was dry land and had been for the several hundred years those trees were growing there.
But you are right. Santa Cruz county wanted to build a desalination plant but it was not approved because it would “encourage development”. So the people deliberately hamstring the economy, prevent growth, and then complain that there are no jobs for their kids. It is just beyond belief.

April 3, 2009 4:37 pm

Maybe so, but we’ve had a heat wave in Siberia…….. oops we used last month’s temps….. oh never mind, just an honest mistake, Certainly you would not think we did this on purpose?

April 3, 2009 4:40 pm

I continue to advocate the transport of excess water (from flooding areas) to dry areas (Southwest states). It seems a shame to watch all that perfectly good river water do flood damage, then run out into the ocean, when 1/3 of the land area of the U.S. could really benefit from having it.

The problem is getting it there. We already use a huge amount of energy in this country to move water around. Water is pumped out of the ground, treated, stored, distributed and the waste treated and effluent disposed of using energy. How do you propose getting water from a flood area in one drainage basin to another without using energy to get the water over the drainage divide?
If we get serious with nuclear power, that might be an option but nuclear power might also allow desalinization on a massive scale and movement of that much water across land might not be needed. Water could be recycled easier if the salts can be removed. That is basically the problem with water treatment effluent; it might be clean enough to drink but it is also loaded with salts. Nuclear plants powering flash desalinization when load is low at night could generate quite a lot of fresh water for people and agriculture.

Ron de Haan
April 3, 2009 4:52 pm

Yes, Obama was right at his speech in Strasbourg today.
We have to act quickly to prevent Global Warming.

Mike McMillan
April 3, 2009 5:35 pm

MSM finally notices the sleepy sun, but it GHG are still 13 times more to blame.
David Hathaway even gets a quote.

April 3, 2009 5:41 pm

Mark T
High canyons might well be full of snow. Last year above 10000′ there was still old snow in unusual places in October. Maybe come out to the newly reserved Domiquez and Escalante Canyons Congress set aside forever this week, as if anyone but a few locals ever go there, only 4500′. Endless impenetrable wilderness here already, no people.
The western slope is headed for a deep depression again, with the slump in oil and gas, and the new rules accepted by the prissy Colo legislature. Sad. But the Western Slope has always been in a depression compared to the rest of the state, after the oil shale bust of 83. Here we go again. Took 20 years to recover. At least we’re used to it. Great survivalist country. People here can’t afford solar panels.
It’s raining red mud in Western Colorado, now that’s a NEW ONE! I suppose we will get some red snow tonight, wind, ssw, must have blown in from AZ. Terrible thick dust but little wind. Dropped 20 degrees in a few minutes. Snow any minute.
Another coal train just rumbled by out of Somerset. All day, all night, the lifeblood of the area. They average 110 cars and take 6 minutes to cross Highway 50. We do depression well.

April 3, 2009 5:53 pm

Yep….. here in the Southern Hemisphere. Tropical North Queensland, Australia to be exact.
The nights are cool, while the stars hang like crystal jewels in the black velvet of the heavens. The lazy days are warm and sunny, beneath the great blue bowl of the sky that streches overhead, from horizon to horizon….. A typical harsh Queensland tropical winter approches.
It’s tuff. But somebody has gotta live here 🙂

April 3, 2009 5:54 pm

I have to admire that way you guys, and especially Steven Goddard, keep putting new lipstick on the “Look, cold weather! How could Global Warming possibly be true?” pig.
It’s quite correct to disparage “alarmist” reports of warm weather as proof of global warming. Plenty of those comments here. But there is a curious, and disappointing, silence on the same illogic when presented in support of the “skeptical” position.
“What is good for the goose, surely is good for the gander?” is exactly wrong. Hold yourselves to a higher standard if you want respect.

April 3, 2009 6:01 pm

click on this link to see my proposed energy source.
Nuclear power is not the way to go for many reasons.

April 3, 2009 6:06 pm

Ron de Haan, re acting quickly to prevent Global Warming.
Apparently we already acted quickly enough. Seas have stopped rising, air temperatures are falling, ice caps are growing, so whatever Obama did just by getting elected must have done the trick.
Maybe it was California’s passing AB 32, perhaps that scared the climate into cooling itself off. “You be good or else, else we will grow CORN and make ETHANOL and tax COAL!”

April 3, 2009 6:13 pm

Here in Wisconsin I have recently found that even my personal friends who are global warming proponents are having a hard time arguing that AGW is real. There is nothing like the harsh reality of six months of colder than normal temperatures and above average snow fall to wake people up to the questionable tenants of AGW. Even the hot air of Al Gore is not going to be able to stop this avalanche of eye opening bad weather.

April 3, 2009 6:13 pm

I’ve lived in Breckenridge, CO since 2005, and we’ve had four long, cold, snowy winters in a row, with snowfall average to above average each season. I’ve had so many deep powder days I can’t remember all of them. We start skiing in September and when the lifts close in April we still have enough snow to ski backcountry until June/July. In May 2008 we received three major snowstorms and I skied waist-deep snow on May 13. In May 2007 I skied fresh powder several times. In Colorado, the ski seasons are not getting shorter, the average annual snow-pack is not shrinking, and snow-levels are not rising. Snow is lasting all summer long on the highest peaks, in fact. Last summer much of the snow didn’t melt in the shaded areas of forest until almst August. Furthermore, in Summit County, we received snowfall every month for AT LEAST the last 12 months.

April 3, 2009 6:26 pm

rss is also out!
looks like both satellites showed some drop this past month.

April 3, 2009 6:43 pm

Is it at all possible that the excess precipitation is a symptom of cooling? It makes sense to me that it would precipitate more after such a warm period. All that evaporated water comes back down when the cooling starts. Hope it’s not a severe cooling…

Nick Stokes
April 3, 2009 6:59 pm

Seems to me the pic only says 47/48. But Steve, I thought you were writing from Europe? That’s looking balmy.

April 3, 2009 7:06 pm

Posted on Real climate… Ironically these april foolers don’t seem to realize how close to reality this is going to be soon LOL… Word for word (except last silly little arguments re severity of AGW)… they are actually correct, and this will most likely happen…. they will be saying farewell (guess next year or after) HAHA
Farewell to our Readers
Filed under:
* Climate Science
— group @ 11:22 AM
“We would like to apologize to our loyal readers who have provided us so much support since we first went online in December 2004. However, after listening to the compelling arguments of the distinguished speakers who participated in the Heartland Institute’s recent global warming contrarian conference, we have decided that the science is settled — in favor of the contrarians. Indeed, even IPCC chair Rajendra Pachauri has now admitted that anthropogenic climate change was a massive hoax after all. Accordingly, RealClimate no longer has a reason for existence. The contrarians have made a convincing case that (a) global warming isn’t happening, (b) even if it is, its entirely natural and within the bounds of natural variability, (c) well, even if its not natural, it is modest in nature and not a threat, (d) even if anthropogenic warming should turn out to be pronounced as projected, it will sure be good for us, leading to abundant crops and a healthy environment, and (e) well, it might actually be really bad, but hey, its unstoppable anyway. (Can we get our check now?)”

Steve Keohane
April 3, 2009 7:17 pm

WakeUpMaggy (17:41:21) I noticed the same muddy red rain this evening, and still ongoing, apparently on the otherside of McClure Pass from you. Actually, I have never seen it for more than a few minutes, when it has been really dry and then it starts to rain. In the past the rain has cleansed the atmosphere in short order. Today, is by no means dry, 10″ of wet snow 6am-1pm, then four hours of rain snow mix, with a 20 minute break. Then tonight it has been a muddy rain for almost three hours. Just drove 5 miles on paved country roads, windshield wipers moved muddy water with each stroke, pickup looks like it was on muddy dirt tracks. My leather jacket has streaks of dirt rolling off the shoulders from being in the rain for a couple of minutes. Seems unusual, even the amount of water.

April 3, 2009 7:19 pm

Glaciers overrunning lifts and lodges will negatively affect the ski industry, especially in the Alps.

April 3, 2009 7:31 pm

Has anyone noticed that the “0” line on these RSS (graphs see TLT TMT graphs below at BOTTOM of web page), left side “0” are NOT on the same level as right side “0” giving the impression that the trend is much greater than should be? Note that the higher troposphere graphs are in sync (where there is no trend). Test it yourselves with a ruler. See what RSS has to say about that!

April 3, 2009 8:03 pm

” Ben Lawson (17:54:37) :
“I have to admire that way you guys, and especially Steven Goddard, keep putting new lipstick on the “Look, cold weather! How could Global Warming possibly be true?” pig.”
That’s an insult right there, we are here for a little careful cameraderie, a lot of hypothesis plural, tons of data and common sense from Anthony and his contributors and not so much verbal violence and judgment. These people don’t have a position except curiosity! Anthony is curious, so are we. Are you?
“It’s quite correct to disparage “alarmist” reports of warm weather as proof of global warming. Plenty of those comments here. But there is a curious, and disappointing, silence on the same illogic when presented in support of the “skeptical” position.”
As you and many others, including Obama, do not seem to understand, SCIENCE IS SKEPTICISM! That’s what IT IS and it is lovely in its infinity and the beautiful drive of the human mind to keep pursuing the incredibly complex details.
“What is good for the goose, surely is good for the gander?” is exactly wrong. Hold yourselves to a higher standard if you want respect.”
If you want to get into childrens’ literature and wisdom go read some fairy tales. Aesops Fable’s, the Dog and the Bone, Chicken Little, The Blind Men and the Elephant, The Emperor Has New Clothes, The Pied Piper of Hamelin. The Sky is not falling. Read that stuff over and over for 17 years to preschoolers and maybe you will absorb the wisdom of your many elders who are dead now for many hundreds of years.
Oh I forgot, regular, liberal people don’t HAVE children anymore and there’s no one to read to, or pay taxes in the future. No wonder they want us all to drive tiny electric cars with rules about safety seats for babies, explosive airbags in the front seats. Parents have to buy SUVs if they live in Red States where it snows. You can’t even put a kid in the front seat anymore thanks to Elizabeth Dole and the ridiculous airbag laws. 3 kids+ SUV.

April 3, 2009 8:05 pm

“Nuclear power is not the way to go for many reasons.”
Well, I believe wind definitely isn’t the way to go for any reliable energy. Wind potential is vastly overrated for one thing. You are going to need something that can move HUGE amount of water. You aren’t going to get wind power to move enough water to make a difference.
A nuclear plant could use a three-stage cooling system with the tertiary coolant being the very water you are moving. It could run 24x7x365 in any weather conditions. You don’t have to worry about ice, wind, tornadoes, or long periods of calm taking our your ability to pump water.
But if you REALLY want to produce something that could make a huge difference in this country, I have an idea for a “load leveling” system that makes a house or a commercial building appear as a constant load. You would basically design it with a storage system as you would an off-grid building but the storage doesn’t need to be as large. When load comes up during the day and exceeds your charging current, you begin to draw from battery to make the difference up. When load comes back down below the charging current, the batteries begin charging. It also lends itself well to auxiliary power input from local wind or solar sources. But the idea is a constant current load on the grid 24×7 so the building appears as a “base load” rather than a “peak load”. It also gives you some insulation against brief outages. The storage shifts a portion of the daytime peak into the overnight hours. This allows base load plants to work at peak efficiency without needing to bring less efficient “peaker” plants online during the day. It also allows you to store nuclear and hydro generated power at night for use during the day but doesn’t need to be as large as a completely off-grid system.

John H.- 55
April 3, 2009 8:20 pm

The snow was so deep at Mt. Hood Meadows last year that trenches has to be dug in many places for the lift chairs to pass through.
It was a record snow year.
Almost as much this year .

April 3, 2009 8:23 pm

Steve Keohane (19:17:06) :
WakeUpMaggy (17:41:21) I noticed the same muddy red rain this evening, and still ongoing, apparently on the otherside of McClure Pass from you.
We were searching for a forest fire as we had never EVER seen such a thick occlusion from anything but a big fire before, without a huge west wind. But of course, we are so isolated and so poor there is no local news available on radio or tv.
All that dirt is cloud seeding the blizzard for Denver tomorrow. A few days ago the winds of 75mph blew all the dirt off my field. Today I got a little of Arizona’s dirt for my garden.
I was hoping the jet stream dumped some Redoubt ash on us but it was just Arizona.:)

April 3, 2009 8:24 pm

Remember folks, climate doesn’t kill, weather does.

John F. Hultquist
April 3, 2009 8:26 pm

Ben Lawson (17:54:37)
Calling someone you admire a pig is quite strange.
Seriously, you must be a dour sort. Sense of humor?
Appreciation of irony? Apparently not.
Disappointing and curious, I think.

April 3, 2009 8:27 pm

vg (19:31:32) :
Has anyone noticed that the “0″ line on these RSS (graphs see TLT TMT graphs below at BOTTOM of web page), left side “0″ are NOT on the same level as right side “0″ giving the impression that the trend is much greater than should be?

They display on the same level on my monitor.
Try viewing the page and then change the size of the window by grabbing the lower right corner of your browser window and sliding the bottom of the frame up as a ruler.
When I do that on my system it comes out exactly the same on both sides. Your monitor might be skewing the display slightly.

April 3, 2009 9:22 pm

Ben Lawson.
“(quoting me) “What is good for the goose, surely is good for the gander?” is exactly wrong. Hold yourselves to a higher standard if you want respect.”
Respect is something one earns. Wanting it or craving it is never the way to earn it. It is earned by doing the right thing and the right time, without regard to the consequences or the cravens who take potshots from the sidelines, especially those who hide behind a sorry excuse for science.
Practicing proper science, as Dr. Richard Feynman so eloquently stated it, would go a long way toward earning some respect for your side, the AGW proponents. That would include such things as carefully measuring the data, providing all the data in a completely transparent manner, drawing logical and supportable conclusions based on sound physics and math, stating the areas of uncertainties, and how those would impact the conclusions.
And yes, what is good for the goose is good for the gander. Why shouldn’t WUWT or any other blog publish cold events as they occur? Are you advocating censorship?
Speaking (writing, actually) only for myself, I could care less if anyone respects me or not. My concern is keeping the policy-makers from heading down the wrong path, wasting trillions of dollars (and other currencies) on a ideologically-driven, scientifically-unsupportable movement to punish affluent Western societies for having had the resources and opportunities to build a better world.
As I wrote elsewhere, Western man has done more good in this world with energy and ingenuity than the liberal idealogues will ever admit. Obama got one thing right thus far, and that is that we should be willing to extend a helping hand to others. But that help is provided by energy, and comes in the form of using energy. As E.M. Smith wrote on his chiefio blog, there is and never will be a shortage of energy. He is right.
And because there will never be an energy shortage, if and when the Earth is ever in dire need of reducing excessive air temperatures, or the opposite, severe cold, the engineers will step up and get the job done. If the AGW proponents turn out to be correct in their position, in perhaps 10 or 20 or 30 years, there will be plenty of time to make adjustments. As I have written before, there is no technical challenge to adjusting the atmosphere’s composition with respect to any component gas. We have all the knowledge we need, right now, to remove 100 ppm or more of CO2 or any other gas within a very short time frame.
When (I should say, IF) the first non-floating polar ice slides off into the ocean, and the sea level rises that first centimeter, call me. Let me know. At that point, the engineers will stop the ice slides and fix any other problems that require fixing, and nobody need panic. Impossible, you say? Hardly. Talk to some engineers sometime.

April 3, 2009 9:30 pm

I try to stay out of nuclear power debates on WUWT, but if you want to read my writings on the subject, do a search on my blogs for “nuclear.”
http://www.sowellslawblog.blogspot.com, and
And wind does and will work. Have a little faith in the engineers!

John F. Hultquist
April 3, 2009 9:35 pm

O/T The News Release of the USGS doesn’t include a time frame but
the dates 1940-2005 should ring bells.
HEADLINE: New USGS Study Documents Rapid Disappearance
of Antarctica’s Ice Shelves
TITLE: “Coastal-Change and Glaciological Map of the Larsen Ice Shelf Area,
Antarctica: 1940-2005”
See here: http://www.usgs.gov/newsroom/article.asp?ID=2186

John F. Hultquist
April 3, 2009 9:42 pm

More O/T
No report for the Caltin crew tonight yet — 10:40 Pacific time.
Usually there is an update on the stats by now.

Mr Green Genes
April 4, 2009 1:17 am

Roger Sowell (21:30:47) : –
“And wind does and will work. Have a little faith in the engineers!”
I’m not sure what you’re getting at here. I am quite happy to accept that engineers can make wind generation more efficient. However, even the most brilliant engineer in this field can’t make power when there is no wind at all and, at least here in the UK, the coldest parts of winter coincide with large steady high pressure areas sitting over the country.
Whilst I’m not particularly a cheerleader for nuclear energy but baseload has to be supplied from somewhere. Ideally it should come from a variety of sources. However, the problem we have here is that, whilst we are sitting on hundreds of years supply of coal, our government has been taking too much notice of Hansen and seems unwilling to allow us to start replacing our life-expired coal-fired generating capacity. Instead we are putting up gas-fired power stations which leaves us dangerously reliant on imports from Russia to keep our grid alive. If they turn the supply off (and history shows that that scenario is not that unlikely) we could be in trouble without another alternative.

Another Ian
April 4, 2009 1:59 am

Moderator – This may well get snipped here,but use it if fitting elsewhere
There is an Irish ditty along the lines of:-
“Pity the Englishman’s worship
And his protestations of faith
For the foundation stones of his temple
Are the bollocks of Henry the Eighth”
One might argue the firmness of the foundation stones of AGW relative to this scale
Reply: ‘Bollocks’ doesn’t have the emotional impact in the U.S. that it does in the U.K. Sort of like Fanny being just a woman’s name over here. ~ dbstealey, mod.

April 4, 2009 5:24 am

Warm=bad, cold=good.
Yesterday I watched a documentary entitled “Global Warming”. They have shown climatic changes throughout the Earth history and somehow managed to link every warming event with mass deaths of species and catastrophs. There was not a single mention of mature thriving under warm climate. There was not a single mention about the possible impact of glaciations or even Snowball Earth on species wellbeing.
When they got to the end of the last ice age (11.500 yrs ago), it was linked to the death of big mammals and woolly mammooths. There was a guy in the cave showing, that the pre-11.500 layers were full of bones and teeth and after there was nothing. And another guy talked about corals growing quicker in the warm periods and showed (IMO quite shamelessly) that in 1725 (LIA, anyone?) the corals grew much slower and implied, that the recent quick growth is a very bad thing… I waited for some more coral info, perhaps about the time of Medieval optimum, but nothing was given.
And as an icing on the cake, there was Lonnie Thompson darkly musing about these pesky Chinese, who abandoned their bicycles and now aspire to drive cars on 6-way highways…

April 4, 2009 5:29 am

@Tom in Texas (16:19:15) :
“Squidly (14:23:23) : “…temperatures could rise 11 degrees in the next 100 years…”
Was that °C or °F?”
It’s degrees of arc. Al’s always been known to list to port ;o)

Steven Goddard
April 4, 2009 7:21 am

As predicted by top scientists, more bad news for the Colorado ski industry due to global warming. After yesterday’s dump, Wolf Creek Ski Area now has received 410 inches of snow with only 10 feet of snow on the ground. Sweltering spring time temperatures are kicking in at 10F (-12C.)
We know from official reports that the Arctic melt season has begun at -38C, so imagine how fast the snow must be melting in the Rockies at -12C!

April 4, 2009 9:04 am

Mr Green Genes (01:17:18) :
“. . . I am quite happy to accept that engineers can make wind generation more efficient. However, even the most brilliant engineer in this field can’t make power when there is no wind at all and, at least here in the UK, the coldest parts of winter coincide with large steady high pressure areas sitting over the country.”
My experience with wind and other renewables is that each has its place, each has a degree of reliability. With proper storage, wind can be made reliable for a few days; with longer storage increasing the average cost. On another thread, I advocated for wave power and ocean current power for the U.K., as there is plenty of both and they are much more reliable than wind.
As for natural gas dependency, has U.K. considered importing LNG, from various countries? If it were up to me, I would not rely on one foreign source of energy, even if it is cheap and convenient via pipeline.
The proper solution (IMHO), is to elect MPs who will promote coal.

April 4, 2009 10:02 am

“I am quite happy to accept that engineers can make wind generation more efficient. However, even the most brilliant engineer in this field can’t make power when there is no wind at all and, at least here in the UK”
That is one of the problems. The other problem is that the estimated energy potential has been hyped beyond all possible reality by the wind power advocates to the point where most wind generation hasn’t approached even 10% of promoted “potential”.
Notice that you can not find figures for actual wind generated kilowatt hours anywhere. You CAN fund numbers for “capacity” installed. But the “capacity” numbers have been inflated to garner support for the projects and are falling well short of those numbers in actual generated power.
If you are going to start pumping water around, people are going to start to rely on that supply. If people are relying on the supply you need a reliable way to provide it. Wind is not reliable.
I could provide a reasonable estimate of what grid demand for power is going to be next Thursday at 3pm. I can NOT give a reliable estimate of what wind generation will be providing next Thursday at 3pm. I can give an estimate of the nuclear generation next Thursday at 3pm. Wind can never be relied upon to give any predictable amount of energy to the grid at any specific time. Wind is a “nice to have” addition to the grid when it is available that can allow us to reduce fossil fuel use when it is available but it is not a replacement for the fossil fuel plants that must still be available when wind is not.
How many windmills does it take to power a single electric steel mill?

Ellie in Belfast
April 4, 2009 10:12 am

Mr Green Genes (01:17:18) :
Actually wind does work well in the UK, it is just that we tend to pay attention more to the (all too rare) times when we have calm high pressure and the blades are not turning. The wind maps (speed, frequency) for UK and Ireland that the wind industry uses (and on which the finance of each project is based) show just how much time you can expect good levels of power and that is a very high % of the time in the UK.
Rodger is also correct in advocating increased gas use for the UK. At the moment we have more energy than you would suppose being generated from landfill gas and sewage gas. Biogas is set to joint these in the coming years (again more is possible than you would think). At present these renewable gases generate electricity directly, but are compatible with LNG after upgrade. Direct use in fuel cells is also possible, which will increase efficiency of production. Wave turbines and marine currents are set to become big.
In Ireland where there is high agricultural production we have the potential to generate 20% of current (non-transport) energy needs from biogas, even without growing energy crops. Another point too is that the feedstocks for biogas production are currently wastes which if we do thisngs wrong, we will end up injecting energy into their treatment instead of using a net-energy-positive process such as biogas.

April 4, 2009 10:19 am

Wow this is working into a monster storm. Here in East Nebraska we have winds from the East averageing in the 20mph range and some gusts hitting 60. I was looking at the map and noticed that this stom has 4 total fronts, and it apears to have a second swirl like there was a second smaller low pressure system nestled into the first.
I did save the picture and I imagine the link will change over time

April 4, 2009 10:27 am

Just to aid in answering my question above:

Modern steel mills comprise of two arc furnaces of 100 MW or more each

Nucor (used to be Nuclear Steel Corp) uses electric furnaces exclusively and is the largest steel producer in the United States.
One plant would require a minimum of 200MW of power 24×7. (1,747,200 MWh per year … almost two billion kilowatt hours. I still can find no documentation of actual power generated by wind. I can find articles that tell how much “capacity” is installed, how many kilowatt hours are “estimated” to be produced in the future … but ACTUAL generation numbers seem to be a closely guarded secret. I wonder why.

Mr Green Genes
April 4, 2009 10:28 am

Roger Sowell (09:04:51) :
“My experience with wind and other renewables is that each has its place, each has a degree of reliability. With proper storage, wind can be made reliable for a few days; with longer storage increasing the average cost. On another thread, I advocated for wave power and ocean current power for the U.K., as there is plenty of both and they are much more reliable than wind.”
Very true – the river Severn for example has one of the largest tidal differences in the world. Unfortunately the same people who argue against almost any kind of development of alternative energy sources also argue against harnessing this as it may have an adverse impact on wading birds etc.
“As for natural gas dependency, has U.K. considered importing LNG, from various countries? If it were up to me, I would not rely on one foreign source of energy, even if it is cheap and convenient via pipeline.”
Recently the first major shipment of LNG came into port, to a chorus of disapproval from … guess who – see above!
“The proper solution (IMHO), is to elect MPs who will promote coal.”
We have many MPs (particularly in the governing Labour Party) who, one might consider, should be supportive of a thriving domestic coal industry. Sadly, they have more interest in toeing the party line and keeping their jobs than in doing the right thing. Also, of course, successive governments have handed over more and more of our decision making powers to an unelected dictatorship (aka the European Union) which certainly doesn’t have our national interests at heart.
PS If I could only master the art of italics on here this would be a whole lot easier to read, so apologies to all.

April 4, 2009 10:28 am

“we have the potential to generate”
And I say those “potential” numbers are bogus. I am not aware of a single “potential” number that has proved out in practice.

Mr Green Genes
April 4, 2009 10:40 am

Ellie in Belfast (10:12:48) :
I’m sorry but I simply do not buy your argument about wind power. The point I was making is that the times of high pressure in the winter are the times when the temperature is at its lowest and therefore when the power demand is at its highest.
Having considered further though, and taking Roger’s point about engineers in particular, if those guys could crack the storage issue, that would definitely make a difference. Moving lakes works – we should do more of that for example, but there will, I’m sure, be a more efficient solution along before too long.
As for gas – you’re right of course, it’s just that we in the UK don’t actually do much of that. In fact we don’t seem to do much of any of the other things you mention, all of which are good. We simply sign more contracts with foreign governments to import more energy, thus putting us in more peril for the future.

April 4, 2009 10:53 am

Ok, best I can find so far … US has 9,149 MW installed capacity. Actual generation is between 10% and 35% of capacity. So erring on the optimistic side, we are looking at about 3,202 MW of actual generation while the best actual numbers I have seen are closer to 10% or 915MW … so all the wind power in the US replaces the output of 1 or 2 coal power plants.

April 4, 2009 11:20 am

“California continues to face snow shortage:”
The way I understand it, even if California had adequate snowpack, they do not have enough catchments and reseviors to store the extra water -much of the snowmelts will end up in the Pacific. The Greenies have made sure of this.
Also, Senator Boxer and Feinstein have put the kabosh on using the Mohave for solar panels and windmills. So much for alternative energy. Hope there are not any heatwaves in Cali this year.
The Left does a lot of talking, not much else.

April 4, 2009 11:47 am

Some hard numbers on wind are available from California:
This shows 6,802 GWhrs in 2007 (works out to roughly 25 % of installed capacity running 24/7)
The percentage is expected to increase as new technology replaces the old, probably maximizing at around 35 percent of capacity. That all depends on the wind, though.
Offshore Corpus Christi, Texas, the generation as percent of capacity is likely to be more than 50 percent. That wind is very steady.
Also, the US Dept of Interior, Minerals and Mining Service (MMS) is to offer leases for wind, wave, and current power systems in the Outer Continental Shelf. Their current assessment shows there is a great amount of power available from these renewables:

Wind Energy Resources: The U.S. Department of Energy (DOE) estimates that more than 900,000 megawatts (GW), close to the total current installed U.S. electrical capacity, of potential wind energy exists off the coasts of the United States, often near major population centers, where energy costs are high and land-based wind development opportunities are limited.
Wave Energy Resources: The total annual average wave energy off the U.S. coastlines, calculated at a water depth of 60 meters, has been estimated at 2,100 Terawatt-hours (TWh).

MMS has not published the potential for power generation due to ocean currents, but states the greatest potential is 8 miles off the coast of Miami, FL, in the Gulf Stream. That ocean current is huge, consistent, and we have the technology. Companies are jumping at the chance to bid on those leases.
see pg. 13 of This document
Mr Green Genes,
I too had trouble with italicizing, so perhaps this may help.
Type (without the spaces and “then”) before the italicized portion, then to close, type .
Can also do bold by substituting b for i.
I agree that tidal power systems are blocked by the enviros, but ocean current and river current systems are gaining traction. We have river current systems underway in New York, I believe in the Hudson River.

April 4, 2009 11:54 am

Mr. Green Genes,
LOL… that did not work! re the italicizing and bold.
maybe this link will explain better: (see Physical styles)

Ellie in Belfast
April 4, 2009 12:00 pm

Mr Green Genes, you are absoulutley right that calm days are a problem especially in winter, however they are less of a problem than most people imagine simply because extended periods of completely calm weather are quite rare in the UK. Averaged over 10 years calm days are about 8% in the south west, less in the north. October to March provides 60% of the wind.
Grid management and the generation mix for the future will be very different, and yes there will have to be spare capacity for those cold calm days, however I think this is percieved to be more problematic by those who don’t realise the current power difficulties we live with everyday in some parts of the UK where the grid and transmission system requires updating too.
Wind turbines are designed to reach rated power (installed MW) at a hub height wind speed of 12-18 m/s (33-40 mph). The percentage of continuous output at maximum capacity actually achieved (capacity factor) for UK wind projects is typically about 25-35%. Figures of approximately 35-40% are achievable on some offshore sites and in exposed UK northern locations.

April 4, 2009 12:26 pm

JPK (11:20:35) :

“California continues to face snow shortage:”
“The way I understand it, even if California had adequate snowpack, they do not have enough catchments and reseviors to store the extra water -much of the snowmelts will end up in the Pacific. The Greenies have made sure of this.
Also, Senator Boxer and Feinstein have put the kabosh on using the Mohave for solar panels and windmills. So much for alternative energy. Hope there are not any heatwaves in Cali this year.
The Left does a lot of talking, not much else.”

The subject of new dams in California is given much study, and apparently there are few suitable canyons available that can be dammed and used as lakes. The ideal canyon is deep and wide, with a narrow mouth, and extends for miles.
Hence, my proposal to pump water from the Missouri River and Mississippi River during spring flooding, uphill and into the Colorado River tributaries. The existing lakes Powell and Mead can store a lot of water, and generate power when the water is released.
Even without the Mojave desert, there is a lot of land available for solar power plants. There are two other major wind corridors in Altamont Pass, and near Palm Springs. Tehachapi is near Mojave, but it is unclear to me how much of that is off-limits to windmills.
Our last critical heat wave was Sept 2 and 3, 2007. We were lucky, as that was Labor Day weekend and the system made it through ok. Had that been on normal work days, we would have had trouble. Since then, the weather has cooperated, and we have built more power plants. We are in pretty good shape for this summer, according to our utility planners. Also, the recent rains and snows in the Northwest have added to the hydroelectric availability, from where we import power.
The situation in three or four years may be grim, though, given a new development in obtaining permits to build new power plants. A state judge ruled late in 2008 that the pollutant permit system is invalid in the Los Angeles area (SCAQMD) and new power plants are on hold until this is resolved. The case is being appealed, and new legislation will be introduced to allow critical public services to be constructed.
The greenies are livid. Their attorneys (NRDC, National Resources Defense Council) filed the lawsuit; while they are ecstatic that they won, they are plenty unhappy that the realists are appealing and seeking legislative solutions. NRDC also filed a similar lawsuit in Federal court, and that one has not been decided.

Mr Green Genes
April 4, 2009 2:31 pm

Roger Sowell (11:54:07) :
Mr. Green Genes,
LOL… that did not work! re the italicizing and bold.
maybe this link will explain better: (see Physical styles)

You mean like this, I hope.
(Mods, please feel free to delete, I’m just testing)

Mr Green Genes
April 4, 2009 2:33 pm

Roger, many thanks.

April 4, 2009 2:39 pm

There is a great deal of weather information on:
This site compiles and updates weather and snow conditions form ski areas in western states from the Rockies to the Pacific and BC and Alberta. Check it out.

April 4, 2009 3:49 pm

Mr. Green Genes,
You are welcome. Smokey and E.M.Smith and others showed me how to do this stuff a few months ago when I first discovered WUWT. Happy to pass it on.

April 4, 2009 4:04 pm

Roger Sowell
What about the comparative cost per kwh?, What about the replacement of thousand of spare parts for those “windmills of your mind”?
I think we should have to send the “El Quijote” to fight against those windmills.:)

April 4, 2009 4:39 pm

Adolfo Giurfa
Costs per kwh are interesting, and debatable. They also change over time with several factors (fuel price changes, plant is paid for, maintenance costs increase, etc).
But, typically we see at the moment that unsubsidized, new, nuclear is the most expensive at 30 to 40 cents, wave is too early to tell (has not yet entered the mass production and economy of scale effects) but will likely come in around 10 to 12 cents, wind is around 4 to 9 cents depending on how steady the wind is, solar may be 20 to 30 cents, natural gas is around 7 to 9 cents (with natural gas at $7), and coal is around 8 cents unless carbon capture and sequestration is required, then it is around 12 cents.
All these are subject to great debate, as I said. The utility or generating plant owner may have higher or lower requirements for borrowing money, debt and equity financing, for example.
I try to use consistent financial criteria, such as capital cost, historic construction time, construction loan interest rate, debt/equity financing ratio, cost of debt (long-term bond interest rate), cost of equity (preferred stock paying a consistent annual dividend), then adjust each technology’s output according to realistic and not optimistic percentages.
On that basis, nuclear generates at around 90 percent on-stream, but cannot follow the load.
Natural gas generates at around 95 percent, but must be reduced as it is one of the few that can follow the load.
Coal runs very high also, at more than 90 percent for a baseload plant.
Solar thermal can only generate around 25 percent, perhaps 40 to 50 percent with thermal storage.
Solar photovoltaics generate only about 25 percent.
Wind in California generates about 25 percent, other areas may have higher or lower depending on the wind.
Wave is expected to generate at around 75 percent, again depending on location.
Ocean current is expected to generate close to 95 percent, but no one really knows yet how corrosion and maintenance will impact that figure.
Geothermal runs at high capacity in California, typically over 90 percent.
Bio-mass power can run at 90 percent or more, and does in California.
I recommend Severance’s paper on nuclear plant costs, and for a methodology for evaluating all power generation projects on a consistent basis.
see This Link

April 4, 2009 6:38 pm

Roger Sowell (and others)
very interesting discussion. thanks
a bit ago there was a mention of micro-nuclear power plants. is there anything more for or against that you could recommend? or I am I just making too much of popular reporting.

April 4, 2009 8:52 pm

@Mark_0454 (18:38:49) :

“a bit ago there was a mention of micro-nuclear power plants. is there anything more for or against that you could recommend? or I am I just making too much of popular reporting.”

Any micro-nuclear power plant must be approved and receive a license for construction and operation from the NRC. From NRC’s website,
“The U.S. Nuclear Regulatory Commission (NRC) was created as an independent agency by Congress in 1974 to enable the nation to safely use radioactive materials for beneficial civilian purposes while ensuring that people and the environment are protected. The NRC regulates commercial nuclear power plants and other uses of nuclear materials, such as in nuclear medicine, through licensing, inspection and enforcement of its requirements.”
“The Atomic Energy Act of 1954, as amended, requires that civilian uses of nuclear materials and facilities be licensed, and it empowers the NRC to establish by rule or order, and to enforce, such standards to govern these uses as “the Commission may deem necessary or desirable in order to protect health and safety and minimize danger to life or property.” ”
Getting a micro-nuke design approved and licensed would take years, if such approval were ever issued, and ensuring the public safety from one of those would pose serious problems. IMHO, about the only good thing about a 1200 MW nuclear power plant is that it is huge, heavy, all in one place, and can be guarded fairly easily. The suitcase-sized micro-nukes are likely never to meet the NRC standards, and as such are very likely just a dream. I may be proven wrong, but nuclear fissionable materials are just too dangerous to ever be allowed to proliferate as micro-nuclear proponents would like.

Rhys Jaggar
April 4, 2009 11:46 pm

Come over to Europe – we seem to be having a milder, warmer start to spring.
We’ve had a coolish winter, but 1947 was a very cold one and the summer after was warm and sunny.
Odds on the same happening again?

Ellie in Belfast
April 5, 2009 3:52 am

as usual lots of interesting information to digest.
Thanks too for the html primer. I must have a go at bold and italics from your easy link. Lack of time (to find out/understand how) has been a problem but seems easy.

Pamela Gray
April 5, 2009 6:37 am

Weather IS climate. Weather pattern variations are the basis of the range of temperature extremes, plus everything in-between, that bracket zonal climate ecosystems. This is why plants are rated for frost and heat kill by climate zone. As long as you buy plants that tolerate your particular weather pattern variation extremes in your climate zone, you have a plant that will survive the 30 or more years that it can live. Why do plants include this information but everyone else says that weather is not climate? Because agriculture understands that weather patterns vary within climate zones, including hitting the extremes on multi-decadal scales. What we grow requires a large initial investment, then yearly costly care, that cannot be redone every few years without us going out of business. I know of several newby farmers that put spring wheat in a notoriously cold wind-swept mesa in Wallowa County. It has frost-killed every year for the past 3 years. Yet they still re-plant. I guess they don’t know that winter red wheat is hardy and is much more suited to our climate zone, especially in open places like flat high mesas. Weather defines climate in agriculture and will always do so.
Anyone who does not know the weather extremes of the climate area they wish to farm is simply playing Russian roulette with their farm investment.

April 5, 2009 8:56 am

Ellie in Belfast,
Top o’ the mornin’ to you, lassie! (I know, it’s afternoon in the Emerald Isle, but we are still shaking off the early morning freeze here on the Left Coast! )
That little html primer is a gem. I love the words across the top: “Print it, fold it, put it in your pocket.”
Here is another favorite website, for Irish sayings:

April 5, 2009 9:55 am

Ellie in Belfast,
Just re-read your comments from above. Very astute observations; are you in the energy business? (was going to write “energy field,” but that just does not look right).

Ellie in Belfast
April 5, 2009 11:27 am

Roger, I’m not in the energy business but work on the periphery of it and sometimes know where to put my hands on useful facts. I’ll drop you a direct email with more information if you like.

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