Guest post by Steven Goddard
The UK Met Office forecast last Autumn “the coming winter suggests it is, once again, likely to be milder than average. ” We have now passed the 2/3 mark of the meteorological winter, and it is time for another report card to send home. Yesterday’s press release was titled “Wintry start to February” which stated “So far, the UK winter has been the coldest for over a decade” and “Met Office forecasters expect the cold theme to the weather to continue well into next week with the chance of further snow.”
The UK is expecting the heaviest snow in about 20 years tomorrow. “Snow and freezing weather threaten to shut down Britain Arctic blizzards are set to cause a national shutdown on Monday as forecasters warn of the most widespread snowfall for almost 20 years.” “Now is the time you’d expect to see the daffodils coming out but we’re not expecting them for two or three weeks at best if it warms up.“
So why is this important? Climate is not weather, after all. The Met Office is one of the most vocal advocates of human induced global warming, and they have gotten into a consistent pattern of warm seasonal forecasts which seemingly fall in line with that belief system. Is it possible that their forecasts are unduly influenced by preconceived notions about the climate? It is worth remembering that London had it’s first October snow in 70 years this past autumn.
Or perhaps they know exactly what they are doing, and are just having a several year run of extremely bad luck with their long term forecasting.
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That famous brass statue might be getting a bit nervous right now!
Hey, win a few, lose a few, no big deal. We’ll just keep plugging away forecasting warmer than average and sooner or later we’ll nail it! Works for NOAA.
Time for “The Day After Tomorrow”?
Earlier this week, some artists floated an iceberg and polar bear down the Thames to highlight “the problem of the melting ice caps.” Art imitates life, or vice-versa.
http://www.timesonline.co.uk/tol/news/environment/article5590775.ece
Given that Britain is forecast to run short on electricity within five years because of a lack of power plant construction, perhaps people should think twice before bringing the Arctic to London.
Could this be connected to the recent (current?) Stratospheric Warming spike? As I recall the theory is that tjhey indirectly effect lower latitude tropospheric temperatures by steering (?) Arctic Air south. Is that was is happening in the UK?
Very likely Garaka.
I predicted extreme cold to my friends last week on the strength of that.
They stopped laughing at me a long time ago.
DaveE.
The historic problem in Europe is not the severe cold, but the cool & wet summers that rot the crops in the fields.
The severe cold is the red warning light of what may follow.
Well I’m taking my camera and spare batteries to work with me tomorrow. Should be an interesting day, that is if the trains find it the right type of snow to run in and don’t cancel themselves.
Its interesting how the Met office is consistently wrong these days and how our perceptions can be at odds with official figures. I thought that this last summer was the worst I had experienced in the 30 years I have lived in the UK. Even the the wet 2007 was not as bad. And in the southeast summer has declined since the summer of 2003 where we had no rain from July to November. That was the year the water companies told us that rationing of water was here to stay. It almost seems as if it has not stopped raining since.
Garacka (16:31:11) :
Could this be connected to the recent (current?) Stratospheric Warming spike? As I recall the theory is that they
indirectly effect lower latitude tropospheric temperatures by steering (?) Arctic Air south. Is that was is happening in
the UK?
Maybe.
http://bunik.blogspot.com/2009/01/stratospheric-warming-may-mean-mid.html
another predictive body with less than Vegas odds
“Or perhaps they know exactly what they are doing, and are just having a several year run of extremely bad luck with their long term forecasting.”
Well…, Umm…, I guess that might be it. Or maybe their models need a bit bit more tweaking.
Looks like maybe they’ll be able to have those winter carnivals on the Thames again, just like during the little ice age.
I think this just shows how very ** bad ** the climate models are at forecasting near-term (6 – 12 months) climate. I suppose we need bigger computers, right??
They claim that they were absolutely correct with 2008 winter projection of a very mild winter. True or false?
I thought one of the common predicted outcomes of global warming is that the arctic melt would destroy heat current flows in the atlantic ocean, wouldn’t a cold UK winter confirm that?
MattN,
The Met Office did get their warm winter 2007-2008 forecast partially correct – if you ignore the fact that Scotland had one of their best skiing years in recent memory and England had a very rare Easter snowstorm. But the Met Office’s last two summer and the current winter forecasts all missed badly. They also forecast that 2007 would be the hottest year ever globally.
“Or perhaps they know exactly what they are doing, and are just having a several year run of extremely bad luck with their long term forecasting.”
There should be NO luck involved, it’s a future prediction based on extensive research and meticulous modelling. Something is seriously wrong if they consistently get it wrong year after year.
Justin Ritchie,
Global warming theorists have forecast every imaginable change in UK weather at one time or another – hot/cold/wet/dry/mild/Mediterranean/Desert/etc.
I’m guessing though that there isn’t much melting going on the Arctic during the winter with temperatures averaging -30C.
Al Gore spoke to the Senate Committee on Foreign Relations today about the impending doom of human-induced climate change. I could only bear listening for about 15 seconds. Every word that comes out of that man’s mouth is a misconception, lie, farce or fallacy. I laughed when he mentioned James Hansen’s scientific findings, but this really isn’t a laughing matter. The politicians backed by their corrupt “scientists” are perpetrating the biggest scam in history right before our eyes.
Justin: as I recall, the theory of “the day after tomorrow” was that the hypothetical melt would shut down the gulf stream causing catastrophic cooling of the northern hemisphere. I think that’s what you’re referencing.
(hard to say which is worse in that movie – the acting, the writing, or the science. They hit the trifecta with that one)
The gulf stream is still alive and well and chugging away – that can be very easily measured. This current temperature drop is atmospheric, not oceanic.
It had good FX tho.
Speaking of arctic weather, did anyone notice that Cryosphere Today recently changed the color scheme for the northern hemisphere snow cover on the comparison graphic? Someone over there got tired of looking at all the snow cover from the satellite shots and decided to change the snow to an unobtrusive gray color. If you don’t like what reality gives you, just photoshop your way into ignorant bliss.
Steven Goddard (19:41:09) :
I’m guessing though that there isn’t much melting going on the Arctic during the winter with temperatures averaging -30C.
I would think not. My son works for a geo-imaging outfit, and last year they had to wait more than a month for the thaw than usual, and he told me that the Arctic melt didn’t get as far as it did the previous year.
It’s much colder in the Arctic this winter than last, so I would imagine that breakup will occur even later.
It is interesting to note that the Climate Change supporters in Australia were predicting an increase in the number of cyclones and also cyclones of greater intensity so far we have had a only 3 this year and they have only category 1 and 2 cyclones. But we have had a lot of rain in the north which is to be expected in the rainy season. The south-east has been hot and dry -it is summer afterall and after the hottest spell since 1908 Penny Wong climate change minister said this what we can expect in the future with climate change. I wonder what the reason was in 1908! They did get their record we had the warmest nights since record began in 1855 as proof of climate change. With such meagre records they are really grasping at straws to back their pseudo science.
Joel zblack,
The snow is apparently back at Cryosphere Today as of 2/1/2009.
Mike