I can just see the reaction of scientists seventy years from now, shaking their heads in amazement at the silliness of the whole AGW phenomena, the never-ending series of tipping points, the thoughts of shooting sulphur into the atmosphere, and the whole notion of a minor trace gas being a climate driver. Perhaps by then they will have learned that a model is no good if it’s programmed with preconceived theories and speculation.
Steven Hill
December 12, 2008 6:41 pm
More warming news just came in for the NorthWest
Temperatures will drop to the teens in most of western Washington by Monday and remain below freezing through the middle of the week, said Kirby Cook, a weather service meteorologist.
Some lowland areas in western Washington may have temperatures in the single digits, he said, while lows on the east side were forecast below zero.
The temperatures could be the coldest in the region since 1990, Cook said.
Heavy snow was forecast for all mountain passes Friday night and Saturday. The state temporarily closed Cayuse and Chinook passes near Mount Rainier and the North Cascades Highway. Crews will decide after the weekend whether they’ll remain closed for the winter.
MattN
December 12, 2008 7:01 pm
I didn’t realize “climate change” was already in the vocabulary back in ’38. We ARE sure this this article is legit, right?
Meanwhile, somewhere on another plane of existence, the unborn Al Gore shrieked unheeded…
Aviator
December 12, 2008 8:39 pm
NEWS FLASH – SNOW FALLS ON PACIFIC ISLAND! I thought I would put out a typical hysterical headline to announce that it snowed on Vancouver Island today. It is, after all, a Pacific island. A climatologist (by his own claim) working as a meteorologist back in the 1970s told me that we were one missed summer away from a new ice age. I wonder what his position is today? I hope it wouldn’t depend on who is paying him as seems to be prevalent in climatology at present. Back to topic, it seems the Russians have switched sides and are now for global cooling.
deadwood
December 12, 2008 8:40 pm
RH:
You are reading them wrong. The first link compares 2006, 2007 and 2008 while the second link compares this and last year to the average for 1979-2000.
Look at them again and you will see that 2007 and 2008 in the right-hand graph on the first link matches the second link.
I just finished a post which is actually on topic here. I have been studying sea ice for a bit and calculated my own NH anomaly. I don’t understand why yet but it is quite different from the standard ice anomalies you see around the web. http://noconsensus.wordpress.com/2008/12/13/problems-in-the-nh-sea-ice-anomaly/
If someone has an idea as to why my calcs don’t match I would be interested.
BTW: I read the entire article Anthony, I don’t know how you find this stuff.
Very nice.
Jim Arndt
December 12, 2008 9:42 pm
I like it the 70th anniversary of my birthday. Too bad I’m not that old……. LOL
Oscillations are that bomb. Tammy wouldn’t like this data and call it NOISE?!?!?
Shawn Whelan
December 12, 2008 9:49 pm
From NSIDC
“The 1930s to 1940s saw significant high latitude warming and therefore it is important to document accompanying changes in ice conditions for comparison with those of summers since 1990.” http://nsidc.org/research/projects/Barry_Eurasian_Arctic.html
Page 673– even Hansen says there is unexplained warming in the ’40’s Arctic
“The model’s fit with peak warmth near 1940 depends in
part on unforced fluctuations, e.g., the runs of Hansen et al.
(2005b), with nearly identical forcings to those in this
paper, appear to agree better with observations. As expected,
the runs in which the solar forcing includes only the
Schwabe 11-year solar cycle (Fig. 4), available on the
GISS web-site and included in Table 2 as AltSol, do not
produce peak warmth near 1940. AltSol also differs from
the standard ‘‘all forcing’’ scenario in having the sulfate
forcing reduced by 50%, thus yielding an 1880–2003 global
warming of 0.64C.
It may be fruitless to search for an external forcing to
produce peak warmth around 1940. It is shown below that
the observed maximum is due almost entirely to temporary
warmth in the Arctic. Such Arctic warmth could be a
natural oscillation (Johannessen et al. 2004), possibly unforced.” http://pubs.giss.nasa.gov/docs/2007/2007_Hansen_etal_3.pdf
Gus
December 12, 2008 9:53 pm
RH, the Arctic ROOS is comparing the present with an average of 1979-2007. While NSIDC compares it with an average of 1979-2000.
April E. Coggins
December 12, 2008 10:11 pm
deadwood, what’s your point? Is it warmer over Chinook Pass or is there some other reason it stays open longer?
What is the averaged opening date and what are the anomalies?
crosspatch
December 12, 2008 10:35 pm
“it seems the Russians have switched sides and are now for global cooling.”
Russia has much more at stake from cooling than any other country on the planet considering the amount of land area in extremely cold regions and given the importance of those regions to Russia’s economy. Canada would also have a lot at stake as would the US concerning resources in Alaska.
Consider all the untapped mineral resources we currently have access to in Alaska but are off limits due to “conservation” requirements. Should another glaciation begin, those resources would likely be inaccessible for over 100,000 years. There would be no more Alaska oil or other minerals. The next glaciation will start rapidly. By the time we realize what is going on, it will already be too late to change policy to get those resources.
I suspect that is why Russia is making a grab for Arctic resources right now … while she still can.
hunter
December 12, 2008 11:25 pm
Shawn,
Hansen has nothing to contribute to the understanding of climate.
Hansen’s interest lies elsewhere.
E.M.Smith
Editor
December 12, 2008 11:35 pm
TWC having a segment called “Arctic Shock And Awe” describing the blizzard conditions, snow, ice, arctic air et. al. hitting a state near you now…
Alex
December 13, 2008 12:02 am
At least in this article they have enough common sense to link the warming to the sun and ocean currents (ie Natural causes!).
Gone are the days when science was about telling the truth!
ElphonPeedupon
December 13, 2008 1:49 am
. . . I rather think that this ‘article’ has been invented. It’s by Harold Denny. Harold DENY? It features Professor Berg. IceBerg? The ‘facts’ are a summary of many of the major contemporary arguments against global warming; including references to the Antartic. The ship the scientists are on is almost at the North Pole, but, bearing in mind that it’s 1938, they’re somehow providing detailed data to Berg and Zupoff (can’t say I get that one) with sufficient detail for these guys to predict global trends. And it’s being reported in the NY Times – not that I could find a reference to the particular article myself on their website. Finally, there’s a reference to a guy being made Chief of Artic Aviation of the Northern Sea Route Administration (AKA: the NorthWest Passage). 1938? I don’t think so.
Chris Schoneveld
December 13, 2008 1:59 am
Leon Brozyna writes: “shaking their heads in amazement at the silliness ….. the whole notion of a minor trace gas being a climate driver.”
Even skeptics accept that the trace gas CO2 affects the climate and particularly so at low concentrations even more “tracy” than they are now: the introduction of CO2 in our atmosphere from 0-50 ppm has had a much greater impact on global temperatures than the greater human induced rise from 280-380 ppm.
I always balk when I hear people using the trace gas argument to debunk AGW. Lead poisoning also occurs at trace levels, yet it has a serious impact on health. There are enough legitimate arguments to debunk AGW but the trace gas argument is not one of them.
Nansen refers to 1979-2007. NSIDC refers to 1979-2000.
Rossa
December 13, 2008 3:07 am
The UK Met office has now revealed that the first third of December was only 1.7C compared with the long-term average of 5.2C. No wonder they don’t want to include this in their average for the year. This is the coldest start to winter for 30 years. Ironically the coldest start to winter was in ’76 the year we had a “drought”, the hottest summer I can remember (only 50, so you may know different).
The Met office of course has to revert to type and say that they had predicted this cold start in their seasonal forecast with milder conditions expected during Jan/Feb although they concede that there is still a chance of cold weather. They obvioulsy need to cover all the bases so that they can say “we told you so”.
This coincides with our true government meeting in Brussels to agree new global warming targets to 2020, which will become law. So any future government in the UK will not be able to reverse this law if the cooling trend continues….effectively another stitch up.
On a lighter note, bookies are not only taking bets on a White Xmas but also that the Thames will freeze over!!
I can just see the reaction of scientists seventy years from now, shaking their heads in amazement at the silliness of the whole AGW phenomena, the never-ending series of tipping points, the thoughts of shooting sulphur into the atmosphere, and the whole notion of a minor trace gas being a climate driver. Perhaps by then they will have learned that a model is no good if it’s programmed with preconceived theories and speculation.
More warming news just came in for the NorthWest
Temperatures will drop to the teens in most of western Washington by Monday and remain below freezing through the middle of the week, said Kirby Cook, a weather service meteorologist.
Some lowland areas in western Washington may have temperatures in the single digits, he said, while lows on the east side were forecast below zero.
The temperatures could be the coldest in the region since 1990, Cook said.
Heavy snow was forecast for all mountain passes Friday night and Saturday. The state temporarily closed Cayuse and Chinook passes near Mount Rainier and the North Cascades Highway. Crews will decide after the weekend whether they’ll remain closed for the winter.
I didn’t realize “climate change” was already in the vocabulary back in ’38. We ARE sure this this article is legit, right?
Speaking of Arctic ice, there seems to be a discrepancy between http://arctic-roos.org/observations/satellite-data/sea-ice/ice-area-and-extent-in-arctic and http://nsidc.org/arcticseaicenews/. Is it just me?
Chinook pass is usually closed by the middle to end of November. We are getting a bit of late start to winter this year in the PNW.
Meanwhile, somewhere on another plane of existence, the unborn Al Gore shrieked unheeded…
NEWS FLASH – SNOW FALLS ON PACIFIC ISLAND! I thought I would put out a typical hysterical headline to announce that it snowed on Vancouver Island today. It is, after all, a Pacific island. A climatologist (by his own claim) working as a meteorologist back in the 1970s told me that we were one missed summer away from a new ice age. I wonder what his position is today? I hope it wouldn’t depend on who is paying him as seems to be prevalent in climatology at present. Back to topic, it seems the Russians have switched sides and are now for global cooling.
RH:
You are reading them wrong. The first link compares 2006, 2007 and 2008 while the second link compares this and last year to the average for 1979-2000.
Look at them again and you will see that 2007 and 2008 in the right-hand graph on the first link matches the second link.
This is a good thread to drop this URL. http://www.businessandmedia.org/specialreports/2006/fireandice/FireandIce.pdf
It doesn’t reference this story, but does mention oth warming reports around then.
RH,
They are using different baseline periods.
I’m predicting a period of continued cooling for the next 4-5 months.
I just finished a post which is actually on topic here. I have been studying sea ice for a bit and calculated my own NH anomaly. I don’t understand why yet but it is quite different from the standard ice anomalies you see around the web.
http://noconsensus.wordpress.com/2008/12/13/problems-in-the-nh-sea-ice-anomaly/
If someone has an idea as to why my calcs don’t match I would be interested.
BTW: I read the entire article Anthony, I don’t know how you find this stuff.
Very nice.
I like it the 70th anniversary of my birthday. Too bad I’m not that old……. LOL
Oscillations are that bomb. Tammy wouldn’t like this data and call it NOISE?!?!?
From NSIDC
“The 1930s to 1940s saw significant high latitude warming and therefore it is important to document accompanying changes in ice conditions for comparison with those of summers since 1990.”
http://nsidc.org/research/projects/Barry_Eurasian_Arctic.html
Page 673– even Hansen says there is unexplained warming in the ’40’s Arctic
“The model’s fit with peak warmth near 1940 depends in
part on unforced fluctuations, e.g., the runs of Hansen et al.
(2005b), with nearly identical forcings to those in this
paper, appear to agree better with observations. As expected,
the runs in which the solar forcing includes only the
Schwabe 11-year solar cycle (Fig. 4), available on the
GISS web-site and included in Table 2 as AltSol, do not
produce peak warmth near 1940. AltSol also differs from
the standard ‘‘all forcing’’ scenario in having the sulfate
forcing reduced by 50%, thus yielding an 1880–2003 global
warming of 0.64C.
It may be fruitless to search for an external forcing to
produce peak warmth around 1940. It is shown below that
the observed maximum is due almost entirely to temporary
warmth in the Arctic. Such Arctic warmth could be a
natural oscillation (Johannessen et al. 2004), possibly unforced.”
http://pubs.giss.nasa.gov/docs/2007/2007_Hansen_etal_3.pdf
RH, the Arctic ROOS is comparing the present with an average of 1979-2007. While NSIDC compares it with an average of 1979-2000.
deadwood, what’s your point? Is it warmer over Chinook Pass or is there some other reason it stays open longer?
What is the averaged opening date and what are the anomalies?
“it seems the Russians have switched sides and are now for global cooling.”
Russia has much more at stake from cooling than any other country on the planet considering the amount of land area in extremely cold regions and given the importance of those regions to Russia’s economy. Canada would also have a lot at stake as would the US concerning resources in Alaska.
Consider all the untapped mineral resources we currently have access to in Alaska but are off limits due to “conservation” requirements. Should another glaciation begin, those resources would likely be inaccessible for over 100,000 years. There would be no more Alaska oil or other minerals. The next glaciation will start rapidly. By the time we realize what is going on, it will already be too late to change policy to get those resources.
I suspect that is why Russia is making a grab for Arctic resources right now … while she still can.
Shawn,
Hansen has nothing to contribute to the understanding of climate.
Hansen’s interest lies elsewhere.
TWC having a segment called “Arctic Shock And Awe” describing the blizzard conditions, snow, ice, arctic air et. al. hitting a state near you now…
At least in this article they have enough common sense to link the warming to the sun and ocean currents (ie Natural causes!).
Gone are the days when science was about telling the truth!
. . . I rather think that this ‘article’ has been invented. It’s by Harold Denny. Harold DENY? It features Professor Berg. IceBerg? The ‘facts’ are a summary of many of the major contemporary arguments against global warming; including references to the Antartic. The ship the scientists are on is almost at the North Pole, but, bearing in mind that it’s 1938, they’re somehow providing detailed data to Berg and Zupoff (can’t say I get that one) with sufficient detail for these guys to predict global trends. And it’s being reported in the NY Times – not that I could find a reference to the particular article myself on their website. Finally, there’s a reference to a guy being made Chief of Artic Aviation of the Northern Sea Route Administration (AKA: the NorthWest Passage). 1938? I don’t think so.
Leon Brozyna writes: “shaking their heads in amazement at the silliness ….. the whole notion of a minor trace gas being a climate driver.”
Even skeptics accept that the trace gas CO2 affects the climate and particularly so at low concentrations even more “tracy” than they are now: the introduction of CO2 in our atmosphere from 0-50 ppm has had a much greater impact on global temperatures than the greater human induced rise from 280-380 ppm.
I always balk when I hear people using the trace gas argument to debunk AGW. Lead poisoning also occurs at trace levels, yet it has a serious impact on health. There are enough legitimate arguments to debunk AGW but the trace gas argument is not one of them.
And it’s the coldest start to winetr for 30 years here in the UK. But, of course, the good old met office has to remind us it’s the 10th warmest year on record!
http://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-1094190/Flood-warnings-issued-Britain-shivers-coldest-start-winter-30-years.html
RH (19:04:15) :
Speaking of Arctic ice, there seems to be a discrepancy between http://arctic-roos.org/observations/satellite-data/sea-ice/ice-area-and-extent-in-arctic and http://nsidc.org/arcticseaicenews/. Is it just me?
Nansen refers to 1979-2007. NSIDC refers to 1979-2000.
The UK Met office has now revealed that the first third of December was only 1.7C compared with the long-term average of 5.2C. No wonder they don’t want to include this in their average for the year. This is the coldest start to winter for 30 years. Ironically the coldest start to winter was in ’76 the year we had a “drought”, the hottest summer I can remember (only 50, so you may know different).
The Met office of course has to revert to type and say that they had predicted this cold start in their seasonal forecast with milder conditions expected during Jan/Feb although they concede that there is still a chance of cold weather. They obvioulsy need to cover all the bases so that they can say “we told you so”.
This coincides with our true government meeting in Brussels to agree new global warming targets to 2020, which will become law. So any future government in the UK will not be able to reverse this law if the cooling trend continues….effectively another stitch up.
On a lighter note, bookies are not only taking bets on a White Xmas but also that the Thames will freeze over!!