Tesla Shares Dive as Republicans Move to Abolish $4 Billion Green Tax Breaks

Tesla Share Price (Source Google Finance)
Tesla Share Price (Source Google Finance)

Guest essay by Eric Worrall

Tesla share prices have crashed in the wake of news that President Trump’s Republican administration is introducing a bill to abolish Federal tax credits for electric cars worth $7,500 per vehicle.

Tesla share crash amid Republican bid to kill off electric car tax break

Didn’t help that the automaker’s financial results also sucked

By Kieren McCarthy in San Francisco 2 Nov 2017 at 18:47

Tesla’s share price took a dive Thursday morning as Republicans in Congress revealed they were planning to kill off a US federal tax credit for electric vehicles.

The proposed House tax bill calls for an immediate repeal of the $7,500-per-vehicle credit: something that would have an immediate knock-on impact for Tesla given that it only produces electric cars.

Its share price fell more than seven per cent to about $296 apiece from Wednesday’s $321. The draft law emerged as the Elon-Musk-led automaker announced its worst-ever quarter, recording a $671m loss and admitting it had not met its production target for its new Model 3 car, producing just 220 of them against its 1,500 target.

Economists believe that the tax credit is a key driver for electric car sales, and cite the example of when the state of Georgia cut its $5,000 tax credit and saw sales of electric cars slump from 1,400 a month to just 100 a month in response.

Scrapping the leccy car deal will increase US tax revenues by $4bn, it is estimated. That’s a good saving seeing as the Republicans are desperate to balance America’s books while cutting things like the corporate tax rate.

Read more: https://www.theregister.co.uk/2017/11/02/tesla_share_price_drop_tax_break/

Its a little early to call the end of Tesla – Elon Musk over the years has demonstrated a rare genius for wheedling corporate welfare out of green politicians. Tesla shares have regained some of the ground they lost.

But this move could be the start of a larger trend. As I predicted in October, generous green subsidies are an obvious soft target for cash strapped governments.

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November 3, 2017 7:24 pm

Title should have read:

Tesla Shares Dive as Republicans Move to Pull the Plug on $4 Billion Green Tax Breaks

Reply to  Eric Worrall
November 4, 2017 5:51 am

I either lost a comment post to WP ether or it went into the spam bucket. Please delete duplicates.

And there is a long path before the decline falls below Tesla’s 2017 stock price increases; making the current dive just a road bump.

One notes that TSLA stock rose yesterday. Perhaps analysts will provide some explanations; e.g short covering, bargain hunters, taking advantage of a dip, etc. Tesla shares are still incredibly over valued.
Negative earnings per share, currently estimated at –2.73 Q4 2017.
Negative Price to Earnings ratio, currently at -35.57.
comment image?dl=0

Here’s a on target plug from an interesting web comic.
http://www.sandraandwoo.com/comics/2017-11-02-0934-call-me-a-skeptic.png

Reply to  Eric Worrall
November 4, 2017 11:00 am

ATheoK – lovely!

Auto

Reply to  Eric Worrall
November 5, 2017 8:38 am

ATheoK – you wouldn’t believe how true that comic is, especially that last frame.

Reply to  Eric Worrall
November 7, 2017 4:16 pm

leowaj, I had an instructor once who related a story of his early (DOS) days in computing. His boss (think Dilbert’s boss) had seen a bar moving across the screen indicating the progress of some function. He demanded he and his friend make one indicated the progress of…some process that needed to be run periodically. They both ended up in that last frame.
Then, one day, his friend came up with the solution that satisfied their boss.
He wrote a little program that started a progress bar that started when that process was initiated. It was completely unrelated to the progress of the process but the boss got to see the bar move across the screen and was satisfied.

Todd Dickerson
November 3, 2017 7:42 pm

The stock drop was directly attributable to earnings, and production delays. Headline is very misleading.

I understand that folks aren’t a big fan of the tax credit. Otherwise I have zero understanding of ill will towards Tesla. American cars, American workers, cool cars, fast cars. If you’re willing to pay $100K for a car, your willing to pay $107.5K.

Craig
Reply to  Todd Dickerson
November 3, 2017 8:01 pm

Ok Todd,

If I gave you 50,000 grand and told you to buy Tesla shares, what is the relationship between revenue earnings and subsidy’s and would you still waste 50,000 grand now understanding how the companies fundamentals work? Don’t go into your own business Todd, you’ll lose your home pretty quick.

Sceptical Sam
Reply to  Craig
November 4, 2017 5:30 am

Craig, you’re an apologist.

If you gave Todd $50,000 to do as you require, then it’s you who has little business acumen.

Todd is spot on. If a person can afford to pay $100,000 for a Tesla then that person can afford to pay $107,500.

Why do greenies always want a leg up on the back of the honest, hard working taxpayer?

Reply to  Craig
November 4, 2017 7:46 am

Craig,

If you have 50,000 grand to give Todd, that is $50 Million. If you have $50 Million, you would be willing to pay $107.5K for a car.

Craig
Reply to  Craig
November 4, 2017 1:09 pm

Sam, read my post again, you’ve missed the connection between the company’s business model and subsidies, so I’ve actually asked Todd to think about why he would invest 50,000 in a company whose business model requires subsidies to stand up. I would invite you to read the companies financials and see when they last made a profit from sales (hint, never). This means Tesla, now has to sell MORE cars by either dropping the price per vehicle and rely on volume or RAISE the price per vehicle and hope that Musk has something special the competitors don’t have, can’t source, can’t make etc etc (another hint, Musk has got nothing special). Sorry your reading comprehension is not up to it. Moving on……

Bob M, what?

Sceptical Sam
Reply to  Craig
November 4, 2017 8:02 pm

OK Craig.

Your writing skills are opaque. Revenue earnings? Really? What other sorts of earnings are there in your fuzzy accountancy land?? 50,000 grand? Really? Are you innumerate as well as illiterate?

Notwithstanding your bleating, Todd is still correct.

If you can afford $100,000 for a motor vehicle you can afford $107,500. And you can afford to pay for the electricity too.

Reply to  Todd Dickerson
November 3, 2017 8:31 pm

I heard he’s planning on moving production to China…unless other rumours are true and he’s actually going to build the cars on Mars.

Robert in Busan
Reply to  Charles Gerard Nelson
November 3, 2017 11:55 pm

Don’t be so judgmental. Gravity on Mars is on 38% of that on earth so repetitive stress injuries on the assembly line will likely be reduced. 😉

Non Nomen
Reply to  Charles Gerard Nelson
November 4, 2017 4:50 am

Buy one Tesla and get a lifelong supply of Mars bars…

Steve from Rockwood
Reply to  Charles Gerard Nelson
November 4, 2017 6:07 am

Starting new production in China to take advantage of the market there, not moving existing production there.

David A
Reply to  Todd Dickerson
November 3, 2017 10:12 pm

Todd you are wrong. Whenever the subsidies cease the sales have dropped 90 percent plus. Now make them pay another x cents per mile for the roads, and pay for their own charging stations and the decline in sales would be over 95 percent.

Sceptical Sam
Reply to  David A
November 4, 2017 5:36 am

Evidence to a greenie is a work of fiction.

Citation please.

Gamecock
Reply to  Todd Dickerson
November 4, 2017 4:12 am

“I have zero understanding of ill will towards Tesla.”

They are crony capitalists in an unseemly partnership with government. Few would resent them if they stood alone.

Reply to  Todd Dickerson
November 4, 2017 5:46 am

Only managing to cobble together 145 Model 3’s in October, announcing that full Model 3 production won’t be achieved until sometime next year, announcing that Model 3 production will cut into S and X production and delay all of Musk’s other Walter Kitty’s and Rube Goldberg’s… were much larger factors than anything Congress might do.

Tesla’s $7,500 tax credit was already going to begin phasing out next year, when they delivered their 200,000-th EV.

Tsk Tsk
Reply to  David Middleton
November 4, 2017 7:08 am

Shhh! You’re ruining the narrative of Komrad Kieren. He’s the hyper-socialist that the Reg hired to replace their previous stalin apologist (which is saying a lot because the Reg is a brit site — apologies to those brit commentators who remain trapped behind enemy lines).

The fact is that Tesla started bombing well before the tax plan was announced but by pure coincidence immediately after earnings announcement. Even worse was his cash burn rate. He’s going to have burned through his bond offering in less than a year. This one is becoming so obvious that even the stupid market may be waking up.

Tsk Tsk
Reply to  David Middleton
November 4, 2017 7:09 am

Oh, and the tax credit phaseout is slooooooooooow. 18 months.

Don K
Reply to  David Middleton
November 4, 2017 10:08 am

That’s correct David. I’m not entirely clear on the $7500 going away. Not all that simple I think. I think it was scheduled to drop to $3500 after the quarter in which Tesla delivers its 200,000 vehicle (probably early next year) then to $1875 six months after that. But I could be all wrong. And there are state level subsidies (bribes) to consider.

In any case, I think the drop in Tesla’s absurdly high stock value was more related to the reportedly massive battery and Model 3 production problems than to the vanishing tax credit. But I could be wrong about that also. See https://seekingalpha.com/article/4120093-conference-call-confirms-teslas-model-3-faces-huge-problems

MarkW
Reply to  David Middleton
November 5, 2017 12:33 pm

The other Tesla subsidy is the ridiculous CAFE standards, that force companies that make cars that people want to buy to buy “credits” from companies like Tesla.

Reply to  Todd Dickerson
November 4, 2017 6:33 am

Regardless of apparent logic, this is what happens when a subsidy is removed. Please note that this happened months ago.
https://www.utilitydive.com/news/georgia-electric-vehicle-sales-shrink-80-in-wake-of-tax-credit-repeal/434092/

Old England
November 3, 2017 7:44 pm

I wonder if Tesla has received the $1.8 Billion from Nevada yet?

At present this is not a ‘real’ business – insufficient market place to succeed without sweetening buyers with subsidy, inability to achieve production levels and it reminds me of the dot come bubble and crash.

Dave Fair
Reply to  Old England
November 4, 2017 1:22 pm

Actually, OE, the knockout blow to Tesla will be delivered by the large auto manufacturers’ massive distribution and marketing muscles. One of them may buy Tesla for their niche market.

Amber
November 3, 2017 7:45 pm

Making people poor ensures they will never have the means to save the planet or buy a Tesla .
We are rapidly hollowing out the middle class and governments everywhere know it .
President Trump did exactly the right thing cut the subsidy to not iust electric cars but to every other corporate welfare cause .
Tesla might make it by just selling to the rich 1 percent . Especially in China which is likely where this boondoggle is headed now that Uncle Sam has pulled the make it competitive plug .
Next up, the feed in tariffs that prop up bird blenders and uncompetitive solar panel companies .
Man I hope the security detail is solid . The alligators are going to be PO ‘d .

Duncan Smith
November 3, 2017 7:48 pm

I agree, electric motors are wonderful creations, I size them all day. Problem is with the batteries, would love if there was a break through. Then there is the other problem, even with perfect batteries, where does all the electricity come from? Nuclear is the logical solution, but that is not on the table.

Reply to  Duncan Smith
November 3, 2017 8:55 pm

The best EV would be a small engine driving enough of a generator to sustain freeway speeds with batteries for handling peak acceleration and stop and go traffic. Best of all worlds. Good gas mileage, good range and good, green CO2 emissions.

Roger Knights
Reply to  Duncan Smith
November 3, 2017 9:44 pm

“The best EV would be a small engine driving enough of a generator to sustain freeway speeds …”

This is another item in Mazda’s pipeline (in conjunction with Toyota): It will use a small, low-weight rotary engine running constantly at its optimum speed, hence no seal-leakage problem to power a hybrid.

I Came I Saw I Left
Reply to  Duncan Smith
November 4, 2017 3:50 am

Someone posted this link recently, and I think it bears repeating. 182 Teslas with collapsed suspensions sitting in junkyards. I didn’t go through every one, but those that I did, the car was written off as totaled. It really is astonishing. There’s other interesting info on that site as well.

http://teslabears.club/t/new-thread-keefs-complaints-with-photographs/107/69

i
Reply to  Duncan Smith
November 4, 2017 4:00 am

Don’t know how my comment ended up in this comment string. WordPress is weird.

I Came I Saw I Left
Reply to  Duncan Smith
November 4, 2017 4:03 am

Didn’t mean for my comment to be in this comment string.

Gamecock
Reply to  Duncan Smith
November 4, 2017 4:05 am

“Nuclear is the logical solution”

Solution to what? What pray tell needs a “solution?”

Reply to  Duncan Smith
November 4, 2017 5:48 am

co2isnotevil – that is exactly how the Chevy Volt works.

Reply to  Duncan Smith
November 4, 2017 11:31 am

co2isnotevil, if you want to do that, why not simplify & get rid of all the batteries, electric wheel motors, generator, etc, and just run the wheels off the little IC engine?

Patrick MJD
Reply to  Duncan Smith
November 4, 2017 8:29 pm

“beng135 November 4, 2017 at 11:31 am”

Because it’s the best way to extract as much energy from the fuel as possible and send it to the wheels.

cloa5132013
November 3, 2017 7:52 pm

Cutting the corporate rate is also a good way to balance the books as it increases the federal tax income. Loads of companies pay little tax and cutting the rate reduces their incentive to “cheat” the tax system.

Reply to  cloa5132013
November 3, 2017 11:59 pm

Yes. Imagine what we could have if there were no business taxes. All income and taxes personal. Well, I can dream can’t I? End double taxation.

Dav09
Reply to  Gladys Knight
November 4, 2017 1:52 am

Well, I can dream can’t I? End double taxation.

FTFY. Your dream is too small. As L. Neil Smith put it:

No one in 1687 could imagine freedom from the constant threat of death by starvation, exposure, or disease, which characterized those times. Few in 1987 [or now] can visualize a future of vastly greater wealth, world peace, & no bureaucrats to pry into every moment of their daily lives. Historical blindness works both ways, of course. Those born in the future will react with a mixture of embarrassment & amusement when we try explaining to them. The insane were once beaten, tortured, & chained, a practice that seems ludicrous & terrible to us. The IRS will seem equally barbaric to our grandchildren. We’ll try to tell them, but they’ll attribute it to senile dementia & never really believe us.

With taxation gone, not only will we have twice as much money to spend, but it will go twice as far, since those who produce goods & services won’t have to pay taxes, either. In one stroke we’ll be effectively four times as rich. There’s no simple way to estimate the cost of regulation. Truckers say they could ship goods for one-fifth the present price without it. Many businesses spend a third of their overhead complying with stupid rules & filling out forms. The worst damage it does is to planning. Since you don’t know what next year’s whim of Congress will be, how can you plan? Plans that require ten, twenty, fifty years to nature? Might as well forget them.

Let’s figure that deregulation will cut prices, once again, by half. Now our actual purchasing power, already quadrupled by deTAXification, is doubled again. We now have eight times our former wealth!

Tom Halla
November 3, 2017 7:56 pm

This is the inevitable result of building a business model on subsidies. The government might change, and not follow the policy of those who started the subsidies. It is not that much of a decline, though, less than 10%, which looks much larger on a cut-of graph.

Tom Halla
Reply to  Tom Halla
November 3, 2017 7:58 pm

Cut-off graph, dammit

Ken Mitchell
November 3, 2017 8:01 pm

A drop from $325/share to $305 is hardly a “crash”, especially since the price stabilized at $305 for the remainder of the day. We’ll have to see what happens to Tesla shares next week and next month, but considering the manufacturing problems that Tesla is having, the loss of a government subsidy is hardly crippling.

Especially since Tesla gets to retain it’s “green” cachet, and its ability to act as a virtue-signal.

Craig
Reply to  Ken Mitchell
November 3, 2017 8:11 pm

Ken, yes it will. Donald is creating uncertainty in the EV market. Losing billions per qtr is not reassuring for any investor and not paying any dividends is not going to attract many new investors seeking income. This is an increadibly risky stock with a pe to the never never, both negative and positive and Future growth is not assured at 70,000 dollars per car when there are cheaper options available and sales are falling.

Non Nomen
Reply to  Craig
November 4, 2017 4:47 am

The signal DJT gives is pretty clear: disinvest from future technologies that have no future in the forseeable future.

Steve from Rockwood
Reply to  Craig
November 4, 2017 6:17 am

It was a very risky stock before the threat of cancelled subsidies. The market cap is more than 5 times revenue.

Crispin in Waterloo
Reply to  Ken Mitchell
November 3, 2017 8:13 pm

Ten per cent down is considered a crash for a major listing.

Steve from Rockwood
Reply to  Crispin in Waterloo
November 4, 2017 6:26 am

Tesla dropped from $321.08 to $294.24 (down 8.4%) on Nov-02 (Thursday) and then rose the following day to $306.09 (up 4%) to close the week. Not much of a crash. Tesla believers probably have faith in the Model 3 production forecasts longer term. Tesla is a form of religion, not to be bet against.

Tsk Tsk
Reply to  Crispin in Waterloo
November 4, 2017 7:13 am

So you’re saying CEOs and shareholders should be happy with a 4-6% drop, a $1BB+/qtr cash burn, missed production targets of more than 80%, AND a ~10% reduction in the next qtr forecast of sales for existing “cash cow” (in quotes because TSLA is FCF negative)? SIgn me up.

Steve from Rockwood
Reply to  Crispin in Waterloo
November 4, 2017 8:37 am

Tsk Tsk, I wouldn’t buy or short the stock.

Craig
Reply to  Crispin in Waterloo
November 4, 2017 1:11 pm

Jesus Steve, I’m just sweating bullets thinking about shorting this stock, be increadibly stressfulll

Bill Illis
Reply to  Ken Mitchell
November 4, 2017 3:52 am

But it is still up by 50% over the past year without any positive news driving that. If anything, the stock should have pulled back over the past year with all the poor financial and operational results especially when the story came out that it has more market cap than Ford and other car-makers.

Apple goes up when it announces it made $11 billion in the quarter and has $250 billion in cash, while Tesla goes up when they lost $600 million and burned through over $1 billion in cash.

Sceptical Sam
Reply to  Bill Illis
November 4, 2017 5:40 am

Which demonstrates that, like Craig, the greenie supporters of Tesla have little business acumen.

Craig
Reply to  Bill Illis
November 4, 2017 1:20 pm

Sam, you have COMPLETELY missed my point and that is because you did not comprehend my original post. Your post is so far off track that I’m bewildered to how you have linked greenies, Tesla and my support for them? I have no time for Musk, greenies or your illogical post, please take the time to read comprehensively before posting next time.

Sceptical Sam
Reply to  Bill Illis
November 4, 2017 8:09 pm

Mate, if you wrote clearly we would all understand where you’re coming from, as I point out above.

OK, so you’re not a greenie. That’s a good start. But one’d never know from reading your erroneous earlier post.

And Todd is still correct. That’s what you need to address.

Reply to  Ken Mitchell
November 4, 2017 5:58 am

Tesla has dropped 25% since September when Model 3 production issues were suspected. In September TSLA hit an all-time high of about $380/share. In less than 2 months it has dropped 25%, down to about $305/share.

Musk is still blithely claiming that Model 3 production will reach 5,000/week by March 2018.

Steve from Rockwood
Reply to  David Middleton
November 4, 2017 7:14 am

In other words, $7.5 B in Model 3 revenue to justify a $40 B market cap.

Reply to  Steve from Rockwood
November 4, 2017 7:35 am

The only metric that supports Tesla’s market cap is the price-to-unicorn dust (PUD) ratio. (Oil industry pun unintended, but on target.)

MarkW
Reply to  David Middleton
November 5, 2017 12:37 pm

What about the FUBAR ratio?

Reply to  MarkW
November 6, 2017 3:24 am

Not realizing that welding is an important auto industry skill, definitely falls under FUBAR.

Phil Rae
November 3, 2017 8:10 pm

Fully agree with most of the comments above. Electric cars may be cool but the ludicrous push they are being given by governments, in terms of subsidies and declarations to ban conventional ICE-vehicles over the next 20 years, is outrageous. Power supply limitations, with ever-greater government-mandated, intermittent wind & solar replacing reliable coal & nuclear, grid infrastructure shortcomings, battery costs and environmental consequences all undermine the case for EVs. Hybrids are the sensible way to go in terms of improved efficiency while still enjoying the wonderful benefits & convenience of hydrocarbon fuels.

commieBob
Reply to  Phil Rae
November 3, 2017 10:00 pm

They want to use electric cars to stabilize the grid. link If the wind stops blowing and the sun stops shining, the power to run the grid will come from everyone’s electric cars and nobody will be able to drive to work that day. That has to be great for the economy.

Reply to  commieBob
November 4, 2017 12:07 am

If EVs had their own portable source of electricity production, I might consider buying Tesla and getting off the grid.

Mark T
Reply to  commieBob
November 4, 2017 3:18 am

They can, but there’s a carch… it requires gas.

John Hardy
Reply to  Phil Rae
November 4, 2017 12:38 am

Phil Rae – I don’t disagree with much of what you say but long term a hybrid car makes as much sense as a hybrid wristwatch: 2 of veryting so inevitably more complex and more expensive than either EV or ICE

MarkW
Reply to  John Hardy
November 5, 2017 12:39 pm

It makes sense if you want an EV that’s actually usable.

Non Nomen
Reply to  Phil Rae
November 4, 2017 4:43 am

AFAIK Tesla has a 8-year ‘unlimited warranty’ for the battery. Problem #1: Tesla will be out of business in 8 years, Problem #2: it does not cover normal wear and tear. So don’t expect a full refund if a failure occurs after 6 or 7 years. Problem #3: Tesla cars are open to manipulations of all kind due to its interconnectivity to the manufacturer. The battery problem is absolutely crucial and far from reasonable solutions.

Marcos
November 3, 2017 8:14 pm

The tax credit is *up to* $7500. If you don’t owe $7500 in taxes, you don’t get the whole.amount

Kenji
Reply to  Marcos
November 3, 2017 8:24 pm

If you afford a Tesla (even a model 3) … then you owe a lot more than $7,500 in Federal Taxes. In fact, I expect most Tesla buyers actually receive their Tax CREDIT in the form of a REFUND check from the IRS … since their taxes were likely withheld for the prior year. Here’s your shiny new Tesla Ms. RICH! … and here’s your CASH bonus for being “green”! Thanks middle class Taxpayers! Suckers!

Tsk Tsk
Reply to  Kenji
November 4, 2017 7:15 am

Bingo. I’m getting tired of that little red herring.

MarkW
Reply to  Marcos
November 5, 2017 12:40 pm

1) Just more evidence that the subsidy is for the rich.
2) You can carry over excess credits to the next tax year.

Kenji
November 3, 2017 8:18 pm

There are two stock issues in America whose share cost/value makes no logical sense … Tesla … and Chipolte. Share prices driven entirely by wishful-thinking Progs. Signaling their virtues by investing in eco-autos, and Mexican infectious disease.

Michael Jankowski
Reply to  Kenji
November 4, 2017 11:06 am

Amazon was the most prominently-attacked stock I can remember when it came to share cost vs earnings (or losses). Shares are worth 10 times what they were at its dot-com peak, and close to 100 times what they were when Amazon was getting ragged-on after the bubble burst. Here’s a nice example. http://www.barrons.com/articles/SB927932262753284707

Marty
Reply to  Kenji
November 4, 2017 11:44 am

Kenji, don’t ignore Bitcoins! People are actually paying real money to buy imaginary money. If I read about Bitcoins in a novel, a work of fiction, I would probably say that’s too ridiculous to happen in real life. When I look at Bitcoins I can’t get over how incredibly stupid people can be. But just when I think that people can’t possibly get any dumber, I look at how many people believe in global warming without any real evidence.

Mat
November 3, 2017 8:41 pm

Electric Aeroplanes? Only if that electricity is used to power an imaginary anti gravity device. Ever heard of Maximum Take off weight vs Maximum Landing Weight? The diff with a 747-8 for instance is 300,000lbs, a A380, 400,000lbs. So even if the power to weight ratio of a battery were the same as kerosene, you lose that much cargo for the same size plane. Moronic is a kind work for this idea…

jorgekafkazar
Reply to  Mat
November 3, 2017 11:11 pm

You should see the power cord on those electric airplanes!

brians356
Reply to  Mat
November 4, 2017 12:04 am

You’re assuming an electric airplane must carry significant cargo economically. Confine your context to a small electric sport aircraft, experimental examples of which are already flying.

Reply to  Mat
November 4, 2017 2:11 am

Mat,

You always loose that much cargo, even with kerosene, as you need to take off with all kerosene necessary. Thus even if you loose weight when flying, that doesn’t help in maximum cargo…

The Solar Impulse 2 weights 1.6 tons empty and can take off with 2.0 tons weight, quite a good ratio. Main drawback: cruise speed is only 70 km/h…

If they can increase the kWh vs. weight/volume ratio from the batteries to about what currently is delivered by fuel, it will get interesting, as they don’t need solar power anymore…

Looks more like a huge glider than an airplane, but still an enormous technical performance of the engineers involved:
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Solar_Impulse

schitzree
Reply to  Mat
November 4, 2017 2:18 am

Ah, so we are only talking about planes with no Comercial or practical use.

This really does sound like flying Tesla’s.

^¿^

Bill Marsh
Editor
Reply to  Mat
November 4, 2017 4:43 am

Well, if it can’t carry cargo, i.e., passengers/luggage or actual cargo doesn’t that make it just a rich person’s toy? It certainly doesn’t have practical value.

Tsk Tsk
Reply to  Mat
November 4, 2017 7:02 am

Ferdinand said:

If they can increase the kWh vs. weight/volume ratio from the batteries to about what currently is delivered by fuel, it will get interesting, as they don’t need solar power anymore…

That would be called gasoline (kerosene, JP-X, etc.). If they invent Mr. Fusion, then they can carry the sun with them too.

Don K
Reply to  Mat
November 4, 2017 10:31 am

There are supposedly a couple of schemes for electric airplanes under development. Seems nutty to me. But what do I know?

The one idea I’ve heard that might — and I emphasize might — be viable is electric aircraft powered by hydrogen fuel cells. Liquid Hydrogen requires an insulated fuel tank and is bulky. But it isn’t very heavy. Maybe the concept pencils out somehow.

RACookPE1978
Editor
Reply to  Don K
November 4, 2017 11:25 am

No, the extreme expense and difficulty of [welding] and fabricating hydrogen tanks (and their huge volume and intricate cryogenic requirements) are fruitful ONLY in the upper stages of VERY EXPENSIVE, single use space rockets. Von Braun used kerosene for example in the lower stages with liquid oxygen. Multi-use hydrogen systems (space shuttle is the only example that “worked” required weeks of rework after each flight, days of intricate “dances” to refuel systems. The rockets could “get by” with the air resistance problem (large volume) because of the low weight of the fuel, but the rockets left the atmosphere quickly – so air resistance didn’t matter so much once they were above 60,000 feet or so. Airplanes? Have to stay in the heavier atmosphere of 35,000 to 45,000 feet. Have to be able to refuel in 20 minutes at any airport.

Sure. Want to fly in daytime with one pilot in calm air at 30 knots? Run your solar-powered kite. But using a bicycle may be more efficient if yo ant to carry anything more than a water bottle. 8<)

brians356
Reply to  Mat
November 4, 2017 11:03 am

Guys, my comment about a battery-powered sport plane was to refute the original derisive suggestion that an electric airplane was a ludicrous fantasy. Yes, currently they are toys, but there is a huge experimental home-built aircraft hobby for folks who simply love sport flying, building, and experimentation. Search “EAA” and marvel at what is being done, and not for practical commercial ends.

Tom Halla
Reply to  brians356
November 4, 2017 11:19 am

A fair baseline for a “real” electric aircraft would be matching the performance of a 1938 DC-3. My understanding is that was the first actual revenue producing aircraft, i.e. the airlines could operate it without a subsidy.

Rob Bradley
Reply to  Mat
November 4, 2017 11:51 am

The Space Shuttle was not a “mulit-use” hydrogen system. The tanks and plumbing using liquid hydrogen were not “reworked” in the Space Shuttle. The external tank burned up when it re-entered the atmosphere. The orbital maneuvering system was hypergolic liquid based and did not use liquid hydrogen.

HAS
Reply to  Mat
November 4, 2017 11:58 am

See https://www.victoria.ac.nz/news/2017/06/wellington-scientists-getting-hybrid-planes-off-the-ground as an example of the effort going into hybrid electric aircraft, including NASA. For more on what makes it all viable, dealing with the issues raised above, download the following paper iopscience.iop.org/article/10.1088/1361-6668/aa833e/pdf (2.4MB). Regional hybrid aircraft possible by 2030.

Reply to  Mat
November 4, 2017 7:06 pm

Rob Bradley

The Space Shuttle external tank was not reused however the heart of the system the Space Shuttle Main Engines were reused multiple times and will be used again on NASA’s new heavy lift vehicle.

GREY LENSMAN
November 3, 2017 8:46 pm

74 MPG, Who needs a Tesla or electric car

http://www.bbc.com/news/business-11301831

MarkG
Reply to  GREY LENSMAN
November 3, 2017 10:19 pm

Someone who wants to actually carry some luggage, or be comfortable while travelling, or not get killed when they’re hit by a truck that didn’t even see them?

The lack of doors will also be great when it’s raining or snowing and the seats get soaked before you can even get into them.

Kenji
Reply to  MarkG
November 4, 2017 10:23 am

Ha! And every time I see some (admittedly beautiful-“looking”) gull wing door, or tilting hatch like this … I think of just how awkward and clumsy it must be to get in and out of these contraptions. Looking kewl, and being “different” doesn’t always make the idea “better”. Sometimes, things have remained unchanged (like side-hinged doors) for a reason … like they simply work best.

Kurt
Reply to  GREY LENSMAN
November 3, 2017 10:41 pm

The original Honda Insight got that kind of mileage on the highway, without the electric battery assisting it. But government regulations put an end to their lightweight design.

Mark T
Reply to  Kurt
November 4, 2017 3:48 am

Um, no. Poor sales were the source of it’s demise.

Kurt
Reply to  Kurt
November 5, 2017 2:40 am

Didn’t say that the model was shelved due to regulations, I said that current government regulations preclude the use of the same design.

The car had poor sales and they discontinued it after the the second generation, but the first generation design (2000-2006) they used to get that mileage wouldn’t fly in the U.S. anymore for newly manufactured cars. I seem to recall that the aluminum/plastic construction they used to keep the weight down (even a plastic gas tank) is a no-go for current regulations.

edi malinaric
Reply to  GREY LENSMAN
November 4, 2017 12:11 am

Hi Grey Lensman – so what’s new? In the 60s I owned a Fiat Cinquecento. Fabulous little car – enough room for burly two mountaineers and two rucksacks. After some modification it would puff along at 130 kph on the straight and level – but not much faster off a cliff! However the brakes. half-shafts and lights were inadequate for that level of performance – but tremendous fun. cheers edi

Dsystem
Reply to  edi malinaric
November 4, 2017 2:19 am

Fiat 500 – classic. But 130 kph? 130 kilo pico hours? Should be 130 km/h.

Mark T
Reply to  edi malinaric
November 4, 2017 3:49 am

kilometers per hour.

Gamecock
Reply to  edi malinaric
November 4, 2017 4:16 am

I knew Al Cosentino.

Russ Wood
Reply to  edi malinaric
November 4, 2017 4:28 am

Yeah – Fiat 500 Giardiniera in 1963. With just me up, 60 miles an hour downhill with a following wind, and sounding like a neurotic sewing machine. But I did once carry Fiji Airways chief engineer back to his hotel, with the car leaning at about 30 degrees from the vertical! Big guys, those Fijians!

AndyG55
Reply to  edi malinaric
November 4, 2017 8:37 pm

Dsystem, “kph” is standard use in many countries.

F. Leghorn
Reply to  GREY LENSMAN
November 4, 2017 5:43 am

That was seven years ago. How many of these wonderful, green unicorns have you seen on the roads?

Kenji
Reply to  GREY LENSMAN
November 4, 2017 10:30 am

Yes … what a massively good-looking (gas powered) golf cart. The only problem being that I usually need to get in and out of my golf cart … about 6-times per hole as I chase my ball down the course. Or in the case of this urban assault vehicle … chase down my multiple urban errands. This thingy makes getting in and out appear a little … difficult.

AndyG55
Reply to  GREY LENSMAN
November 4, 2017 8:35 pm

Hey, how can anyone claim that seating arrangement as “intellectual property”
comment image

Been around for ages. !

AndyG55
Reply to  AndyG55
November 4, 2017 8:39 pm

From 2008. only difference is how you get in, and 2 wheels at the front.

http://motorcycletestdrive.com/stallion2008/stallion%20motorcycle.jpg

AndyG55
Reply to  AndyG55
November 4, 2017 8:42 pm

or if you want enclosed, Even the Philippines is there to help

http://northboundasia.com/wp-content/uploads/2016/08/08-06-danny-bubble-trike.jpg

Dave Fair
Reply to  AndyG55
November 6, 2017 12:39 am

The driver doesn’t value his life, heh, Andy?

Bob boder
Reply to  GREY LENSMAN
November 5, 2017 6:50 am

Ha love the name, great stories for a kid way back when.

Clyde Spencer
November 3, 2017 9:28 pm

I guess I should hurry up and buy my electric ATV while I can still get a rebate!

commieBob
November 3, 2017 9:38 pm

I note that the Chevrolet Bolt outsold Tesla in October. link

I would be pleased to see Tesla fail because Elon Musk is a rather nasty, arrogant guy who mistreats his workers. link He’s a great example of the Democrat party’s liberal elite. They believe they got where they are because they are, in all ways, superior to the rest of humanity. They believe that the poor and middle class don’t deserve anything, including decent working conditions. link Some folks think they are fascists. link

Kurt
Reply to  commieBob
November 3, 2017 10:40 pm

Don’t believe that stuff – it smacks of the unions playing hardball.

commieBob
Reply to  Kurt
November 4, 2017 12:18 am

The former industrial middle class is in real pain. President Trump got elected because the Democrat party had thrown those people, who Trump called the forgotten people, under the bus.

commieBob
Reply to  Kurt
November 4, 2017 12:26 am
Mark T
Reply to  Kurt
November 4, 2017 3:56 am

Tessa is non-union.

Sceptical Sam
Reply to  Kurt
November 4, 2017 5:52 am

“Mark T November 4, 2017 at 3:56 am

Tessa is non-union.”

Good.

That’s the only thing Tesla has got going for it.

Kurt
Reply to  Kurt
November 5, 2017 2:16 am

“Tessa is non-union.”

Exactly. The unions don’t like this so they find people to push allegations like this to drum up pressure to unionize.

Jeff Labute
Reply to  commieBob
November 4, 2017 6:14 am

That’s a tough one. I hate to see any American company fail and have slack taken up by foreign competitors, even if they green. Better battery tech will help a lot and engineers are working overtime on the next Gen batteries. It appeared to me Tesla is having production issues and the model 3 is far from reaching quotas is why the stock dropped. No tax credit makes it doubly worse.
Perhaps if Tesla needs money, they could plug in all their excess solar panels, and power some computers to generate bitcoins 😉 see how well that works 😉

CapitalistRoader
Reply to  Jeff Labute
November 4, 2017 4:50 pm

Better battery tech will help a lot and engineers are working overtime on the next Gen batteries.

And have been since 1903.

Kenji
Reply to  commieBob
November 4, 2017 10:38 am

Yes … you’d think Marxist sympathizers like Musk would embrace his workers (certainly by UNIONIZING them) rather than EXPLOITing their labor for a pittance like all those evil capitalist corporations. I suspect the only salvation for Tesla will be to nationalize it. For our own creeping-Marxist Federal Government to take-over the means of production by seizing Tesla and “liberating” the workers. Then, government-Tesla motors can mandate eco-saloons in every garage to go along with 2-bunches of Kale in every healthy salad bowl.

Reply to  Kenji
November 4, 2017 11:33 am

Hey, kale is not bad, occasionally.
When added to white bean and kale soup, by choice.

By choice.

Auto

Bob boder
Reply to  Kenji
November 5, 2017 6:53 am

We can rename it voltswagon

Bob boder
Reply to  commieBob
November 5, 2017 6:52 am

Dido on Musk, biggest flimflam man of our age

Patrick MJD
November 3, 2017 9:48 pm

It’s OK, South Australian taxpayers will bail him out. He’s a smart man! Convinced a whole state Govn’t they need his technology.

michael hart
November 3, 2017 10:02 pm

I do hope the BBC pension scheme sees this as a buying opportunity. 🙂

David A
November 3, 2017 10:07 pm

If they make it on their own great. But for now a Tesla is a rich man’s car paid for by the middle class, driven by a rich man for free on roads paid for by the middle class, often charged for free via public charging stations paid for by the middle class.

Kurt
November 3, 2017 10:38 pm

The $7,500 tax credit phases out for each manufacturer once they hit a certain number of vehicles sold, and as I recall Tesla was getting close to that number anyway. Counter-intuitively, this may help them competitively; if no one is allowed to take the credit, other electric vehicle manufacturers who haven’t sold as many vehicles to date won’t have a competitive advantage over Tesla.

Mark T
Reply to  Kurt
November 4, 2017 4:07 am

200,000 as I recall. Based on sales, he’s got a way to go.

Kurt
Reply to  Mark T
November 5, 2017 2:57 am

“200,000 as I recall. Based on sales, he’s got a way to go.”

Tesla had over 100K deliveries in the U.S. by the end of 2016. As of October 5, 2016 and based on deliveries in the U.S. to that point, the expectation was that Tesla would add another 50K in 2017. So Tesla should be hitting it’s 200K next year and entering the phase out period during which EV competitors (none of which have total sales approximating Tesla’s) would have gained a competitive advantage from the subsidy.

If the subsidy goes away, Tesla’s EV market share should benefit.

Reply to  Kurt
November 4, 2017 4:30 am

Initial reports have also suggested the bill hurts automakers, particularly Tesla, but the story there is more complicated. The bill does eliminate a $7,500 tax credit for new electric vehicle purchases. Tesla buyers have long benefited from that provision. But the benefit begins to phase out once a car maker sells 200,000 cars, a threshold that Tesla is likely to hit in the coming months.

[ … ]

In fact, the elimination of the credit could be spun as a positive for Tesla, since General Motors and Nissan were just getting started with their own electric efforts — with the Chevy Bolt and Leaf, respectively. For the Bolt, which starts at $37,500 the tax credit represents a 20% savings off the list price. Without that benefit, the company will face a tougher task selling the car.

http://www.barrons.com/articles/actually-eliminating-the-ev-credit-could-help-tesla-1509737765

Qualified Plug-In Electric Drive Motor Vehicle Credit (IRC 30D) Phase Out
The qualified plug-in electric drive motor vehicle credit phases out for a manufacturer’s vehicles over the one-year period beginning with the second calendar quarter after the calendar quarter in which at least 200,000 qualifying vehicles manufactured by that manufacturer have been sold for use in the United States (determined on a cumulative basis for sales after December 31, 2009) (“phase-out period”). Qualifying vehicles manufactured by that manufacturer are eligible for 50 percent of the credit if acquired in the first two quarters of the phase-out period and 25 percent of the credit if acquired in the third or fourth quarter of the phase-out period. Vehicles manufactured by that manufacturer are not eligible for a credit if acquired after the phase-out period.

https://www.irs.gov/businesses/plug-in-electric-vehicle-credit-irc-30-and-irc-30d

So the story is that Tesla was about to lose the benefit anyway and it is their competitors that have a benefit to lose.

SteveT
Reply to  rovingbroker
November 4, 2017 6:31 am

The way I read the tax credit rule, it applies to each manufacturer separately. So Tesla will soon lose that advantage but other manufacturer’s tax credits will continue until their sales reach 200,000 or until the proposed bill removes everyone’s tax credits.

Is there an estimated date for the new bill? How long will/can it take to pass both houses?

SteveT

Tsk Tsk
Reply to  rovingbroker
November 4, 2017 7:22 am

Now they weren’t about to lost the benefit. They are about to START losing that benefit. The phaseout takes a year (I thought it was 18 months, still a year).

The qualified plug-in electric drive motor vehicle credit phases out for a manufacturer’s vehicles over the one-year period beginning with the second calendar quarter after the calendar quarter in which at least 200,000 qualifying vehicles manufactured by that manufacturer have been sold for use in the United States (determined on a cumulative basis for sales after December 31, 2009) (“phase-out period”). Qualifying vehicles manufactured by that manufacturer are eligible for 50 percent of the credit if acquired in the first two quarters of the phase-out period and 25 percent of the credit if acquired in the third or fourth quarter of the phase-out period.

Yes, this still hurts TSLA.

Admin
November 3, 2017 10:39 pm

There are additional reasons the company is having a bad week.

https://dailykanban.com/2017/10/source-tesla-responsible-model-3-production-hell/

EW3
Reply to  Charles Rotter
November 3, 2017 10:48 pm

bingo!

I Came I Saw I Left
Reply to  Charles Rotter
November 4, 2017 5:20 am

That article proves Musk is desperate and doesn’t know what he’s doing. That approach will eat you alive. I knew he was in trouble when he met with the Japanese automakers and rejected their methods.

Amber
November 3, 2017 11:01 pm

Like to know what snack bracket the average Tesla buyer is in . Got a feeling they can easily pop for the $7500 to save the planet . Think of it . No government subsidy how smug will they feel now ?
Tesla can move to China , hire slave wage employees and sell to all those corrupt bureaucrats laundering their money in casino’s and real-estate . A win -win .

Lil Fella from OZ
November 3, 2017 11:33 pm

Oh no! Not cutting green subsidies. Welcome to the real world.

November 3, 2017 11:46 pm

Elon Musk dumped all his Tesla shares recently, like a month ago.. obviously he knew these cuts were coming. during the next economic downturn Tesla will go bankrupt completely, they have overspent trying to make this bad technology-the rechargeable car viable by placing ‘Free Superchargers’ all over the place; It still sucks and no-one is buying this crap-what dumbass wants an expensive car that is clearly inferior to an ICE car which can be ‘recharged’ anywhere, anytime in a few minutes. What’s ridiculous about the entire company is- If you are going to do it with an electric-motor car-which are pretty coo after all considering their speed, FUELCELL technology is the way to go. A fuelcell powered electric car has no emissions and can be refueled in just a few minutes like an ICE car; AND can even be fueled upto 1000’s of kilometers with a single refueling-making it even better than an ICE car not worse like a crappy battery powered car.

John Hardy
Reply to  Sam Khoury
November 4, 2017 1:20 am

Sam: fuel cells? You have to be kidding. It has been tried and predictably bombed. I can recharge my car from any electrical outlet but I’ve yet to see a hydrogen station. Besides compressed hydrogen is nasty and unruly stuff to handle

Dsystem
Reply to  John Hardy
November 4, 2017 2:32 am

JH, I agree. Hydrogen is everywhere, but it has to be mined at huge cost usually using large amounts of electricity which defeats the purpose.

Reply to  Sam Khoury
November 4, 2017 8:22 am

Sam Khoury wrote, “Elon Musk dumped all his Tesla shares recently, like a month ago.”

Wrong.

Elon Musk [ … ] owned a stake in Tesla worth about $10 billion as of Friday.
http://time.com/money/5009277/elon-musk-tesla-net-worth-stock/

John Hardy
November 4, 2017 12:34 am

Forrest – fair enough, but did you take the same view of the GM bailout?

andy in epsom
Reply to  John Hardy
November 4, 2017 3:22 am

All of the bailouts should not have happened. If true capitalism was followed it was natural for those companies to fail. They should never have been propped up.Iceland let their banks fail and now look at them with their well regulated banks that know they cannot push their luck. The banks did not close and move and should have been the blueprint for the rest of the world.

Reply to  John Hardy
November 4, 2017 5:39 am

I was even more hostile to the GM and Chrysler bailouts, than I am toward EV corporate welfare.

Tsk Tsk
Reply to  John Hardy
November 4, 2017 7:02 am

Yes.

MarkW
Reply to  John Hardy
November 5, 2017 12:25 pm

They weren’t bailing out GM, they were bailing out the UAW.