The Sea Ice Prediction Network (SIPN) announces the call for contributions for the Sea Ice Outlook August report.
The Sea Ice Outlook provides an open process for those interested in arctic sea ice to share ideas about the September minimum sea ice extent. The monthly reports contain a variety of perspectives—from advanced numerical models to qualitative perspectives from citizen scientists. A post-season report will provide an in-depth analysis of factors driving sea ice extent this summer as well as explore the scientific methods for predicting seasonal ice extent.
For the August Outlook report, we particularly encourage regional Outlooks and spatial forecasts and maps; both regional and pan-Arctic outlooks will be accepted.
We also welcome any field- or ship-based updates on ice conditions in the different regions and input on which observations are most useful for improving models. Sea ice scientists, volunteer observers and oceanographers are collecting observations routinely by ship throughout the Arctic Ocean. Such observations include sea ice morphology (e.g., concentration, ice type, floe size, thickness, snow, melt pond characteristics, topography), meteorology (surface measurements) and oceanography (temperature, salinity, upper ocean temperature). Which observations are most useful to improving model predictions or validating these models? Are there particular in-situ observations that we should highlight in our efforts to coordinate data collation?
To help with ship-based observations, a SIPN-related effort, IceWatch, provides a framework and a software tool (ASSIST) to help with standardized, ship-based ice observations. Detailed information and data from past and ongoing cruises can be accessed at http://www.iarc.uaf.edu/en/icewatch
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Due to the Heartland Conference in early July, we missed be able to poll readers during that time. The July SIPN report is here and the graph from it below.
Figure 1. Distribution of individual Pan-Arctic Outlook values (July Report) for September 2014 sea ice extent (labels on the bar graph are rounded to the tenths for readability. Refer to the Individual Outlooks at the bottom of this report for the full details of individual submissions).
The contest is to forecast the September monthly average Arctic sea ice extent (in million square kilometers). NOTE: Not the minimum, the average.
For a primer, see the WUWT Sea Ice Reference Page
This year, a model forecast from NOAA CFSv2 says that we might see a minimum something around 6.0 million square kilometers, however that is not a validated model.
![sieMon[1]](https://wattsupwiththat.files.wordpress.com/2014/08/siemon1.gif)
JAXA Arctic Sea Ice Extent -15% or Greater:
Japan Aerospace Exploration Agency (JAXA) – International Arctic Research Center (IARC) – Click the pic to view at source
Arctic temperature is running slightly below normal:
Arctic Temperature:
Mean Temperature above 80°N
Danish Meteorological Institute – Click the pic to view at source
My best guess is about 5.6 million sq km for the September average. You can add your prediction to the poll. Few seem to think it will be a repeat of 2012, and the only issue now would be if we have some inclement weather like that year that broke up the ice.
The poll runs 24 hours and closes at 9AM PDT Tuesday, as the deadline is close of business that day. The average of the top 5 responses (which usually exceeds 50% of the vote) will be submitted as WUWT’s estimate, unless there is a single number voted in that exceeds 50% of the vote.
6.1
I’m feeling optimistic this year, so I go for 5,8 million. Look at the sea ice volume anomaly change during July, according to PIOMAS…
Yes, it is calculated, not measured, but still it looks promising.
Both area and extent are slightly above last year’s values by this date, and more or less by the same ammount, so the ice seems similarly packed, and if volume is greater…
I’m in for 5.5.
NOTE: Not the minimum, the average.
average = mean ??
The mean is biased by the outliers that, in this case, will be the minimum. Thus, go low.
5.3
5.5 and I haven’t been right yet.
Meier was quoted recently as saying the ice was thin and spread out, and thus could drop noticeably if it got blown around.
“This year, a model forecast from NOAA CFSv2 says that we might see a minimum something around 6.0 million square kilometers, however that is not a validated model.”
Not only is it not validated, it seems to have been performing quite poorly this year. Until recently, the model was still predicting above average summer minimum. It continued to do so well after a naked-eye test indicated that above average was absurd.
5.5 with minimum of 5.0. Unit = Gm²
4.875
Sorry, correct unit is Mm².
“Arctic temperature is running slightly below normal”
A couple of things that I think are worth pointing out about the DMI temperature plot:
1) It only analyzes temperatures above 80 deg latitude. Even as we near the summer sea ice minimum, a substantial amount of ice exists below 80 deg: http://www7320.nrlssc.navy.mil/hycomARC/navo/arcticicennowcast.gif Local weather conditions can easily make for above average temperatures at those lower latitudes
2) They mark 0 deg C on the plot. As everyone knows, this is the freezing point of pure water. However, seawater’s freezing point is a couple degrees lower due to the salt content, so don’t expect the melt to stop when the red line drops below the “freezing” line in the next couple of weeks.
3) I recall reading at one point (although I can’t find the source, maybe somebody else can locate it?) that the DMI plot uses lat/long-weighted averaging rather than area-weighted averaging. The result is that it places undue weight on the far north latitudes, where it is undoubtedly cooler, skewing the whole plot towards a cold bias in terms of absolute temperature.
In short: by all means use the DMI plot as a tool to help guide your guestimate of sea ice minimum, but please use with care and do not simply assume that since it says the arctic temperature is about to drop below freezing that we are essentially at the annual minimum.
Back in June, the UK Met Office were forecasting 4.1.
Given more multi year ice this year, and below average temps, I go for slightly higher than last yr, around 5.4
A couple of tenths below the 2000’s average is my call – about 5.2 mk squares
I recommend the following article at http://hockeyschtick.blogspot.co.at. “… The graph of the Five year moving average of the Arctic Sea Ice Index [red line] is inversely correlated to the Atlantic Multidecadal Oscillation [AMO] five year moving average shown in green….
Arctic sea ice could continue to recover for next 30+ years of negative AMO
The natural ~60-90 year Atlantic Multidecadal Oscillation [AMO] has been in its positive warming phase since 1976 and after ~30+ years of warming is “pausing” and transitioning to its ~30-45 year negative phase [cooling]:…”
I remember earlier this year a study that said they could predict the final ice total based on the number of melt ponds by a certain date (I think it was July). I never heard anything after and wonder if they made a prediction or not and, if so, how accurate it is.
1.5Pi
I’m sticking with 5.2 just like I said back in June when the WUWT consensus was 6.0 IIRC.
BTW JAXA have a data file at http://www.ijis.iarc.uaf.edu/seaice/extent/plot.csv , which used to be up to date, but it does not have 2014 data. Does anyone know if their 2014 data are available to the public?
Rich.
The NSIDC September average is tracking to 5.4M km2. [NSIDC does some post-processing to this number which adjusts it by +/- 0.1M].
http://s21.postimg.org/ovc7z47lj/NSIDC_Sept_SIE_Proj_Aug10_14.png
OK, I can answer my own question: http://www.ijis.iarc.uaf.edu/seaice/extent/plot_v2.csv .
Rich.
I doubt that it gets below 5 million square km, but it’s always possible since the wind and currents will determine the final number. The multi-year ice growth looks good though, and if it continues for another year or two there should be steady recovery. It’ll be interesting to see how the alarmists explain a pause in their only tangible indicator that the Earth is warming.
Does anyone else imagine Hannibal Lecter calling NSIDC and asking “Well Serreze, has the ice stopped screaming?”
in Figure 1. there exists a clear prediction breakpoint between 5.1 and 5.4. I say 5.3 million square km (5.25 rounded up).
Accuweather September forecast for Arctic Bay, Canada, shows the average temp drops to minus 1 degree on the 7th, and steadily drops for the rest of the month. Does anyone know how this compares to other years?
For that matter, does anyone know of research comparing Arctic ice melt to temperature?
It’s not the coverage area, it’s the thickness!
*ducks and runs*
5.5 million km2