Another massive cold wave headed for Eastern US next week to put temperature 20 degrees below normal
Senior WeatherBell Meteorologist Joe Bastardi commented:
I am 58.. never seen anything close to this for late March.
and
[The] pattern next week has as much extreme potential for the time of the year as I can find. Coldest opening to calender spring in 50 yrs at least.
Weather forecast models such as the ECMWF and NCEP, both of which have had good track records this year in identifying polar vortex outbreaks in advance, are now forecasting a massive cold blast for the beginning of spring. See maps:
Dr. Ryan Maue commented on this forecast from ECMWF:
ECMWF 12z (WMO-Essential) 850-hPa temperature + wind streams. Final 10-day outcome after 2nd Arctic blast. Brutal.
He added:
Canadian ensemble system looks like other guidance at 7-days as well. This cake is baked. Arctic blast to end March
…
If Lake Michigan can open up a bit, then this cold could drop enormous amounts of Lake Effect snow on Lower Peninsula of Michigan.
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CO2, eh?
Question for Aanyone at Weatherbell: Because tornadoes are intensified by the clash of cold and dry vs warm and moist, could we expect a more active tornado season?
Um … trying to say this nicely .. having an interesting title day …
[So, what title is more clear? … “Likely to be the Coldest Spring Equinox in the Past 50 Years” … instead? Mod]
That first one from Ryan Maue would imply the possibility of some rain in California.
Well, Kerry did say Global Warming was the most important weapon of mass destruction a week or so ago. Meanwhile, the Malaysian jet and Putin kinda showed amateur hour very nicely. Now here comes the next Arctic front as if slapping Kerry upside the head all over again. Karma brother, karma.
Can I vote for the one that’s furthest from where I live?
(Maybe if I burn a couple of tree rings….?8-)
News like this leaves me conflicted. On the one hand I like to see the cold prove that CO2 does not drive climate and that the “we will all burn” scare is just a scam — but on the other hand I like warm and would love to see about 4C of warming over then next few decades.
Mankind’s tiny, meager yearly addition to a tiny trace gas has nothing to do with the climate. But the climate will cause increases in CO2 as it warms. What I am not conflicted on is that I would love to see the CO2 levels hit 1500 ppm and help green the planet.
I guess I am one of those that the philosophy professor in the news wants to round up and execute. 🙁
Jim Steele
“Question for anyone at Weatherbell: Because tornadoes are intensified by the clash of cold and dry vs warm and moist, could we expect a more active tornado season?”
This requires warm air from somewhere!
I live in Wisconsin. All three of those forecasts suck.
I dunno, weather report tor the next 10 days is in the low to high 40’s (F) in my area (New Jersey). Two days will tap the 30’s. Weatherbell map says (if I read correctly) about -17C, or about -1.4F. How is the 850 hPa related to surface temps?
I use oil to heat my house.
This year has been %#@&*1!!! expensive.
I finished insulating my basement this fall. $1600.00. Based on what my neighbors have spent on energy, as a percentage over last year, I saved no money. The energy demand for my house was up about $1600.00 this year.
Some neighbors have energy increases of 20-40% this year. I am at about 0% having insulated 163 feet of basement wall.
The roads here in SE Michigan are just shredded after this winter, I need some warm weather!!
So global = central and northeastern North America?
Thanks for clearing that up.
Gerry and Mod,
Gerry says:
March 17, 2014 at 2:40 pm
Um … trying to say this nicely .. having an interesting title day …
[So, what title is more clear? … “Likely to be the Coldest Spring Equinox in the Past 50 Years” … instead? Mod]
__________________________
How about… Beware the Ides of March.
D.J. Hawkins says:
March 17, 2014 at 3:08 pm
“How is the 850 hPa related to surface temps?”
—————————————
850 hPa is on average about ~ 5000 ft a.s.l.
Average lapse rate ~ 3.5 deg F per 1000 ft.
NJ elevation – 500 ft (for the puposes of this exercise
Surface temp ~ 16 F warmer than 850 hPa
So, about -1.4 F + 16 = ~~ + 15 F
…. lots of assumptions in this little calculation, but that will get you in the range
D.J. Hawkins says:
March 17, 2014 at 3:08 pm
This is a really good site :
http://wxweb.meteostar.com/
Type in your location, and go to the 16-day forecast. It prints out a table showing predicted temperatures at different levels in the atmosphere. That should answer your question.
yer all gonna die!!!!
can we have your water? 😉
“If Lake Michigan can open up a bit, then this cold could drop enormous amounts of Lake Effect snow on Lower Peninsula of Michigan.”
1. You don’t need open water for lake effect. It’s just a little better with 32 degree water than 32 degree ice.
2. Lake Mich lake effect in the fingers of the LP is pretty wimpy compared to the lk erie and — even worse — lk ontario lk effects, both going the long ways of the lakes.
You people have it all wrong. Global warming is still with us. This has been the 50th warmest opening of Spring in the past 50 years.
Anthony Fyi – Typo
[Done. Thank you. Mod]
D.J. Hawkins says:
March 17, 2014 at 3:08 pm
I dunno, . . . ”
Anomaly in Celsius; 1 C. degree = 1.8 F. degree [ 9/5 ]
Charts show the departure from “normal” temperature. So, what’s “normal” or “climatology” for your local site?
@Anything is possible says:
March 17, 2014 at 3:19 pm
Way cool, thanks! I have no idea what I might need it for, but that one is getting bookmarked! They’re showing slightly lower temps than AccuWeather, so I guess it’s wait and see.
Related to my comment just above —
In these charts, “normals” are in green:
http://www.wrh.noaa.gov/climate/temp_graphs.php?stn=KYKM&wfo=pdt
“Temperature & Anomoly” if I read the chart heading correctly. It appears the colors are the temperature, the iso-lines are the anomaly.
Magma says:
March 17, 2014 at 3:16 pm
http://quadrant.org.au/opinion/doomed-planet/2014/03/guessing-games-climate-science/
Back at you.