Lake Superior sets a new record for winter ice cover, other lakes are icing up fast.
Lake Superior is 92 percent frozen on the surface, breaking a 20-year-old record of 91 percent set on Feb. 5, 1994. Temperatures continue well below freezing. Have a look at this graph:
As far as all the lakes go, here is the plot of historical maximums:
![IceCoverAvg1973_2013[1]](http://wattsupwiththat.files.wordpress.com/2014/02/icecoveravg1973_20131.jpg?quality=83)
The number to break is 94.7, set in 1979, which is also a year of some of the worst winter weather ever in the USA, and coincidentally, the peak year year when Arctic sea ice trends were begun via satellite measurements. Right now we are at 78.5%. Just a week ago the ice cover was 66 percent.
Source image (click for update) http://www.glerl.noaa.gov/res/glcfs/glcfs.php?lake=l&ext=ice&type=N&hr=00
UPDATE: this graph from the Canadian Ice Service shows how much above the median the Great lakes have been:
![20140203180000_CVCSWCTGL_0007500871[1]](http://wattsupwiththat.files.wordpress.com/2014/02/20140203180000_cvcswctgl_00075008711.gif)
This graph shows by year, 2014 is now in third place:
![20140203180000_CVCHDCTGL_0007500868[1]](http://wattsupwiththat.files.wordpress.com/2014/02/20140203180000_cvchdctgl_00075008681.gif)
References:
Great Lakes Environmental Research Laboratory
http://www.glerl.noaa.gov/data/ice/
Modis Imagery:
http://coastwatch.glerl.noaa.gov/modis/modis.php?region=g&page=1
Canadian Ice Service:
http://iceweb1.cis.ec.gc.ca/Prod20/page2.xhtml?CanID=11080&lang=en
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I try to keep track of the ice coverage, and here are the numbers for Feb 4:
http://lenbilen.com/2014/02/05/the-great-lakes-ice-cover-now-at-77-the-most-since-1996/
I will update when this coldsnap is over. It has been cold and nasty, even in Pennsylvania.
And my propane gas costss over $4 per gallon!!
from a Michigan news site:
“The ice cover should continue to grow at a rapid rate based on temperatures expected in the next few weeks. You may not want to hear this, but I don’t see several days in a row cracking the freezing mark until at least February 21. There could be a few hours above freezing late next week, but that won’t slow the ice growth. Also, the weather pattern is going to be fairly quiet in the next two weeks. This means lower wind speeds around the Great Lakes, which should help accelerate ice cover growth.
It is going to be close, but we may be living in a historic winter with regards to amount of Great Lakes ice.”
http://www.mlive.com/weather/index.ssf/2014/02/great_lakes_added_11_percent_i.html
Just yesterday we had WUWT reporting “Over two-thirds of the contiguous USA covered with snow“, and now this. Some ski resorts in Scotland have had more snow than the winter Olympics and the Alps have had yet more snow. Can I say that the climate is changing?
Great lakes ice is doomed for the rest of the 21st century.
Total Ice cover 79% as of yesterday.
Better Color map of the ice cover. First time on this map they put ice coverage on it.
http://coastwatch.glerl.noaa.gov/webdata/cwops/webdata/glsea2/glsea_cur.png
If you like so see and track the ice this NOAA link is one to bookmark.
http://www.glerl.noaa.gov/res/glcfs/
BTW, I have posted info about how NOAA’s Lake Ice model is a complete failure. no one seemed to care or notice my findings.
Last week in a 2 day period NOAA’s Great Lakes Ice model for Lake Superior showed ice decreasing but is gained ice. Was off by 33% in coverage in 48 hour forecast period.
I have been watching their models for a month and every forcast for each lake and run has been so off I can not understand how it can even be shown to the public. Here is one of my tweets on the model and bust.
https://twitter.com/NJSnowFan/status/429189145458507777/photo/1
-7 F where I am in western New Hampshire right now. Definitely one of the coldest winters we’ve had in recent years.
There are a couple benefits to all this extreme cold:
– kills off a chunk of the wintering insects
– shuts down the lake effect snow machine … at least for Erie; Ontario’s still open for business … prevailing winds are also a factor, such as when the winds came out of the north and dumped snow on Indiana from the still open waters of Lake Michigan.
Great Stats on the ice cover here. Article from 02/06
http://www.mlive.com/weather/index.ssf/2014/02/great_lakes_added_11_percent_i.html
Take a long, hard look at this picture. Chances are, that it may take a loooong time, until we will see open water in the Great Lakes again – as in hundreds and thousands of years. Catastrophic, non-anthropogenic Ice Age – anyone?
Jimbo says:
February 8, 2014 at 5:50 am
“Just yesterday we had WUWT reporting “Over two-thirds of the contiguous USA covered with snow“, and now this. Some ski resorts in Scotland have had more snow than the winter Olympics and the Alps have had yet more snow. Can I say that the climate is changing? ”
Hold on there Kimosabe. Are you forgetting the drought and very low snow pack in the western U.S.? More likely just weather from a chaotic system.
@njsnowfan
So true, and the Canadian Ice Service switched their map legend from fractions of lake ice to human descriptions on Feb. 5th so you couldn’t compare it to past years. But they must of had so many complaints they have now switched it back. It was alarming (pun intended) because it looked so obvious that they wanted to minimize what was happening with jargon and new terms. Here is a link to their western Great Lakes ice coverage map; http://iceweb1.cis.ec.gc.ca/Prod20/page3.xhtml
According to http://iceweb1.cis.ec.gc.ca/Prod20/page2.xhtml?CanID=11080&Lang=en
this is the third most extensive ice cover in the recent past. Lake Ontario is the one to watch. It is deep and south.
to Tom in Florida – of course it’s just weather, but it IS so much fun to say it’s “climate change” for two good reasons, both of which I think are worthwhile: 1) it drives the warmists crazy, and makes them swallow their tongues every time someone says it, and 2) it serves as an inoculation (you know, give a little bit of the disease to cure the disease) against any of the warmists saying “see! It’s Global Warming!!!” the instant we have one new high temperature anywhere in the northern hemisphere next July.
Beat the whole idea into the ground now, and make them be the ones who do it, and even they won’t be able to bring it up again – and if they do make those claims again next summer, at least the whole sad affair of shrieking “CLIMATE CHANGE” will have sunk into a nonsensical cacaphony that the public will tune out for good.
on second thought, I think that has already happened.
Some local observations. I live on the southern shore of Lake Superior (the western part of the Upper Peninsula of Michigan, at the base of the Keweenaw Peninsula). The winter weather came early, with very low temperatures and early ice formation. The mechanism seems to be self-reinforcing: Cold weather brings more ice cover, ice cover brings colder ambient temperatures (less moderating effect from open water), which brings more ice formation. If you look at a graph of percentage of Lake Superior ice cover, you’ll see that the slope is increasingly steep, particularly in late January. Very little snow now, just hard, bitter cold — the high temps in the middle of the afternoon are rarely above single digits (F).
Here is some media take on this great global warming event.
Seems like the graph of temperatures in the middle of Lake Superior should have a scale lower than 0F in case it freezes over early.
Anyone Notice This..
Record Ice years on the Great Lakes and Cold winters in CONUS have all come at or near Bottom of Sun Spit Cycles. Warm winters and low concentrations of Ice on the Great lakes have come at or near the peak of solar cycles.
2013-2014 is at the Peak of Solar Cycle #24 that is the weakest in over 100 years.
Can stick this to the Climate Scientists like M. Mann that say the sun has little effect on temperatures.
If Lake Michigan freezes over (likely with weather forecasts) that will be very historical … and somehow I don’t think it was thought possible for 2014 in 1990s AGW conferences. They would have almost surely said it was hysterical, and laughed you out of the room – but my old, childhood friends along Lake Michigan are not laughing this winter!
Global Warming causes more snow because warmer air holds more moisture.
Antarctic sea ice increases by extra snow melt and thus sea water dilution/freezing.
Climate Change causes more extreme weather events, such as lakes freezing over.
There is no hiatus, official government graphs clearly show warming trend.
It’s only weather. mwahahaaa
A few notes…
1) The overview graphic image http://coastwatch.glerl.noaa.gov/cwdata/lct/glsea.png seems to be running several days behind
2) You can get more up-to-date images for the individual lakes…
* Huron http://www.glerl.noaa.gov/res/glcfs/hicecon+01.gif
* Michigan http://www.glerl.noaa.gov/res/glcfs/micecon+01.gif
* Erie http://www.glerl.noaa.gov/res/glcfs/eicecon+01.gif
* Ontario http://www.glerl.noaa.gov/res/glcfs/oicecon+01.gif
3) It’s not just in Antarctica that ships are getting stuck in the ice (Akademik Shokalskiy). It’s also happening in the Great Lakes. This story from Januray 29…
http://www.cbc.ca/news/canada/windsor/stranded-ships-on-great-lakes-create-icebreaking-logjam-1.2515257
> Stranded ships on Great Lakes create icebreaking logjam
> ‘It’s almost unmanageable,’ says freighter captain
> who was stuck twice in a day. Several freighters are
> stuck in ice on the Great Lakes.
>
> The list of frozen freighters in just the Lake St.
> Clair and Detroit River region stands at six.
>
> Lara Barrett, the commanding officer on the
> Canadian Coast Guard’s icebreaker Griffon,
> said the the vessel’s crew of 28 is running day
> and night, from Windsor, Ont., to Quebec City.
>
> “There’s been lots of requests for icebreaker
> assistance from ourselves and the American
> Coast Guard,” Barrett said. “There’s been
> some vessels stuck in the ice. They’re unable
> to move any longer.”
>
> Barrett said the icebreaker has been working
> all month. The hardest-hit region has been
> the western basin of Lake Erie, where ice is
> jamming up.
>
> The Griffon has been breaking ice in front
> of ships and escorting them out of the lakes,
> up toward the St. Lawrence River.
>
> Doug Ireland, captain of the cargo ship
> Algoway, and his crew were stuck in ice
> Toledo, Ohio, for nearly three days.
Leon Brozyna says: February 8, 2014 at 5:55 am “There are a couple benefits to all this extreme cold: – kills off a chunk of the wintering insects [ … ]”
Do you have an academic citation please? I ask for studying Ixodes hard-bodied ticks, that may have originated in the Palearctic Taiga, and are perfectly adapted to such conditions as we are enjoying now, here at the southern verge of the Nearctic Taiga. The tick studies out of Siberia are fascinating reading.
Local news has Algoway and Algowood delivering salt to southern Lake Michigan.
Locally, we use ‘dirty sand’. Recently I got a 5 gallon bucket full in preparation for my holding tank-pumper and truck’s arrival. I noticed that the shed is down to lass than a third of its capacity.
@Bryan Johnson
Enough of the empirical evidence and real world, observational data … you need to get back to computer modeling to understand how CO2 forcings will override that trivial stuff! LOL
…the wolves on Isle Royale are well pleased!
http://www.mininggazette.com/page/content.detail/id/532912/Ice-could-act-as-bridge-for-Isle-Royale-wolves.html?nav=5006
Doug Huffman says:
February 8, 2014 at 6:31 am
“…extreme cold– kills off a chunk of the wintering insects … ”
Do you have an academic citation please?
____________________
Need to add to the list (see above:) “Global Warming causes Pine Beetles to proliferate, thus causing massive die- offs of Northern Forests.”
Where exactly, is Hell, Michigan?
Hell, Michigan is in southeastern Michigan, just northwest of Ann Arbor. I just checked and the local temperature of 8 F so, yes, Hell has frozen over.
Doug Huffman says:
February 8, 2014 at 6:31 am
There are reports around that these low temperatures may kill off the Emerald Ash Borer (google that), a new pest that threatens about every fourth tree in the northern hardwood forests (Dutch Elm Disease is estimated to have killed about 250 million trees; chestnut blight is estimated to have killed 1.1 billion trees; EAB threatens many billions of trees (all forms of ash: black, white and green)).