From the soon to be a Climate Crock of the Week department, Barry Woods writes to me in an email:
One of the insights in the climategate emails was perhaps how poisonous Michael Mann’s involvement was, for the niche area of the paleo science community (ego due to IPCC and Hockey Stick)?
This tweet from earlier this morning (now deleted, only a text version survives -Anthony) shows the immediate labeling of “denier” for another scientist who disagrees with his paleo work.
Michael E. Mann @MichaelEMann
Closet #climatechange #denier Rob Wilson, comes out of the closet big time: http://www.bishop-hill.net/blog/2013/10/21/wilson-on-millennial-temperature-reconstructions.html … #BadScience #DisingenuousBehavior
Shortly afterwards, Mann got into a long and somewhat huffy discussion with Tamsin Edwards over that labeling, here’s the opening salvo:
Also in the feed earlier this morning, (though I can’t find it now) was a Tweet from Mann backing down saying he’d withhold judgment on Rob Wilson until he confirmed those words, suggesting that Andrew Montford (Bishop Hill) had misinterpreted Wilson’s words..
That Tweet apparently has disappeared too. (A WUWT commenter found it, see below, but the original “denier” tweet is still missing -A) I wasn’t going to bother with this article until Dr. Mann started disappearing his own words.
Awful blog piece (http://t.co/61oFMFD3Ho) may well have misrepresented Rob Wilson's views. I suspend judgment, pending his disavowal of it..
— Dr. Michael E. Mann (@MichaelEMann) October 21, 2013
Woods continues:
[About the same time] Rob Wilson, had just publicly confirmed (in comments at Bishop Hill) that he thought and had publicly told students, public, etc Mann’s recent work was a ‘crock of shit’… (his words)
“Lastly, the “crock of xxxx” statement was focussed entirely on recent work By Michael Mann w.r.t. hypothesised missing rings in tree-ring records (a whole bunch of papers listed below).
Although a rather flippant statement, I stand by it and Mann is well aware of my criticisms (privately and through the peer reviewed literature) of his recent work.
Rob”
in the comments
Here it is in full:
==================================================================
Greetings.
Although I vetted Andrew’s post, I want to clarify that my 2 hour lecture was, I hope, a critical look at all of the northern hemispheric reconstructions of past temperature to date. It was not focussed entirely on Michael Mann’s work. I described each of the major studies and tried to highlight both their strengths and weaknesses – they all have some useful information but it is important to understand the limitations of the studies as well. Of course Mann’s work was mentioned as several of his papers have been so prominent over the last 15 years but I actually spent substantially more time taking apart the D’Arrigo et al. (2006) study on which I did much of the analysis.
This was a session where I wanted the students to critically look at the different studies and specifically address what we can learn from them and how the science can move on over the next decade. Such large scale reconstructions are critically important for understanding the controls on large climate variability, but as yet, due to great uncertainties and large differences in reconstructed amplitude, they are not yet very useful at constraining modelled estimates of future temperature change.
Bar some personal comments, much of what I said is published (see papers below) and is in the public domain.
Lastly, the “crock of xxxx” statement was focussed entirely on recent work By Michael Mann w.r.t. hypothesised missing rings in tree-ring records (a whole bunch of papers listed below). Although a rather flippant statement, I stand by it and Mann is well aware of my criticisms (privately and through the peer reviewed literature) of his recent work.
Rob
I hope all the PDF links below.
NH RELATED PAPERS
Edwards, T.L., Crucifix, M. and Harrison, S.P., 2007. Using the past to constrain the future: how the palaeorecord can improve estimates of global warming. Progress in Physical Geography 31 (5), 481-500.
http://www.st-andrews.ac.uk/~rjsw/papers/Edwardsetal2007.pdf
D’Arrigo, R., Wilson, R. and Jacoby, G. 2006. On the long-term context for late 20th century warming. Journal of Geophysical Research, Vol. 111, D03103, doi:10.1029/2005JD006352
http://www.st-andrews.ac.uk/~rjsw/all%20pdfs/DArrigoetal2006a.pdf
D Frank, D., J. Esper, E. Zorita, R. Wilson. (2010). A noodle, hockey stick, and spaghetti plate: a perspective on high resolution paleoclimatology. Wiley Interdisciplinary Reviews Climate Change. doi: 10.1002/wcc.53.
http://www.st-andrews.ac.uk/~rjsw/all%20pdfs/Franketal2010.pdf
Trieste 2008 Paleoclimate Uncertainties Workshop, Final Report.
http://www.ncdc.noaa.gov/paleo/reports/trieste2008/trieste2008final.pdf
Esper J, Frank DC, Wilson RJS (2004) Climate reconstructions – low frequency ambition and high frequency ratification. EOS 85, 113, 120.
http://www.st-andrews.ac.uk/~rjsw/all%20pdfs/Esperetal2004.pdf
Esper J, Wilson RJS, Frank DC, Moberg A, Wanner H, Luterbacher J (2005) Climate: past ranges and future changes. Quaternary Science Reviews 24, 2164-2166.
http://www.geo.uni-mainz.de/Dateien/Esper_2005_QSR.pdf
MISSING TREE-RINGS AND MAJOR VOLCANIC EVENTS
Mann et al. 2012. Underestimation of Volcanic Cooling in Tree-Ring Based Reconstructions of Hemispheric Temperatures, Nature Geoscience, 5, 202-205.
http://www.meteo.psu.edu/holocene/public_html/shared/articles/MFRNatureGeosci12.pdf
Anchukaitis, K. et al. (2012). Tree rings and volcanic cooling. Nature Geoscience. 5: 836–837. doi:10.1038/ngeo1645
http://www.st-andrews.ac.uk/~rjsw/all%20pdfs/Anchukaitisetal2012.pdf
Mann et al. (2013). Discrepancies between the modeled and proxy-reconstructed response to volcanic forcing over the past millennium: Implications and possible mechanisms. JGR. 118, 14, p. 7617-7627.
http://www.meteo.psu.edu/holocene/public_html/Mann/articles/articles/MRSTF-JGRInPress.pdf
Esper J et al (2013) Testing the hypothesis of post-volcanic missing rings in temperature sensitive dendrochronological data. Dendrochronologia. 31 (3): 216-222.
http://www.blogs.uni-mainz.de/fb09climatology/files/2012/03/Esper_2013_Den.pdf
Esper J et al (2013) European summer temperature response to annually dated volcanic eruptions over the past nine centuries. Bulletin of Volcanology 75, 736, doi: 10.1007/s00445-013-0736-z.
http://www.blogs.uni-mainz.de/fb09climatology/files/2012/03/Esper_2013_BullVol.pdf
St. George et al. (2013). The rarity of absent growth rings in Northern Hemisphere forests
outside the American Southwest. Geophysical Research Letters 40, doi:10.1002/grl.50743
http://www.st-andrews.ac.uk/~rjsw/all%20pdfs/Stgeorge2013.pdf
D’Arrigo, et al. (2013). Volcanic cooling signal in tree-ring temperature reconstructions for the past millennium, Journal of Geophysical Research, doi:10.1002/jgrd.50692
http://www.st-andrews.ac.uk/~rjsw/all%20pdfs/D’Arrigoetal2013.pdf
Rob Wilson ==================================================================
It seems that Rob Wilson has some serious basis for the claim, and he’s sticking by it.
Ross McKitrick sums it up pretty well in a comment:
==================================================================
Mann’s tweet just reveals openly what has long been his working assumption. To Mann, a “skeptic” is anyone who doesn’t accept his work uncritically, and a “denier” is anyone who actually disagrees with him.
Ross McKitrick ==================================================================
This is Rob Wilson:
Rob Wilson Earth and Environmental Sciences – Senior Lecturer
School of Geography and Geosciences
Irvine Building
St Andrews
KY16 9AL
United Kingdom
It seems he is well qualified to spot paleo-crocks:
-
A tree-ring reconstruction of East Anglian (UK) hydroclimate variability over the last millennium
Cooper, R. J., Melvin, T. M., Tyers, I., Wilson, R. J. S. & Briffa, K. R. Feb 2013 In : Climate Dynamics. 40, 3-4, p. 1019-1039
Article
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Contrasting water-uptake and growth responses to drought in co-occurring riparian tree species
Singer, M. B., Stella, J., Piegay, H., Dufour, S., Wilson, R. & Johnstone, L. 2013 In : Ecohydrology. 6, 3, p. 402Article
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Orbital forcing of tree-ring data
Esper, J., Frank, D. C., Timonen, M., Zorita, E., Wilson, R., Luterbacher, J., Holzkämper, S., Fischer, N., Wagner, S., Nievergelt, D., Verstege, A. & Büntgen, U. Dec 2012 In : Nature Climate Change. 2, 12, p. 862-866
=====================================================================
Update: In case anyone doubts the “poisonous” nature of the rhetoric Dr. Mann uses, I’ll point out what he has begun labeling an Virginia Attorney General Ken Cuccinelli, who wanted to look at Mann’s UVA emails under FOIA.
Conservative @RTDNEWS refuses to endorse #Cooch for #VAGov, citing "divisive agenda..that was unbecoming in an AG" http://t.co/ggCl4RbNSz
— Dr. Michael E. Mann (@MichaelEMann) October 20, 2013
The definition of the slang word “cooch” is:
Source: http://onlineslangdictionary.com/meaning-definition-of/cooch
What a terrible misogynistic label to apply to somebody. You’d think with the recent sexual harassment scandal over Scientific American’s Bora Zivkovic and his actions, Dr. Mann would be a bit more reserved in such nasty labeling.
My advice to Dr. Mann: When you’ve tweeted yourself into a hole, stop tweeting.
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It looks like Mann is finally beginning to feel the burn.
The volcanoes ate the homework
Without intending to be rude to our host or Mr Wilson and with specific regard to the “crock” comment, my first thought was “tell us something we don’t already know”. Even Mann’s petulant behaviour when criticised is becoming incredibly passé and “old hat”.
Its true irony that thanks to Mann’s planet sized ego , he does much good work for the very people he hates as he attacks even those on his own side for the ‘crime ‘ of failing to appreciate his ‘god like powers ‘
Keep him ,under pressure keep him in the spot light and this will continue .
of course there’s missing tree rings after a volcano eruption…
….we all know temps are linear
The mann is cornered and getting more vicious as he loses ground.
I thought the word was “count”, or is that too upper class?
Mann (and his various henchmen) are powerful recruiting sergeants for the sceptic cause (*).
The trick will be to ensure that he is kept simmering nicely for long enough to p**s off everybody he comes into contact with, but without him completely exploding. So far, its working nicely. He’s on a rolling boil.
See, for example, LinkText Here for many testimonies to that effect.
I never (never ever never) thought I might defend Michael Mann but I really wonder if #cooch refers to the female anatomy since “cooch” is how you pronounce the first syllable of the attorney’s last name (Cuccinelli) and may be a common nickname for the candidate for governor. Well, maybe a common name for him among his liberal opponents, if not everyone.
There is so much for which to indict Michael Mann I would hate to include something that may not even be true.
–John Brosnahan
REPLY: I had considered this possibility before writing my update. A review of history on Dr. Mann’s Twitter feed shows a serial pattern of debasement of Ken Cuccinelli. Further, the hashtag could easily be #Cuccin or #Cuccinelli or #KenCucci or any derivative of his name. It isn’t. It’s a slang term with an entirely different meaning that simply sounds like his name.
An example of another tweet from Dr. Mann uses dual hashtags in the same tweet:
http://twitter.com/MichaelEMann/status/389881808667824128
Clearly to me the term is derogatory and Dr. Mann knows it is derogatory. If he doesn’t know it, he should. – Anthony
Surely after a volcanic eruption there are some missing trees 🙂
As long as journals keep publishing Mann’s papers and as long as the university keeps paying his salary, Michael Mann will be a blemish on the climate science community. But it appears they are starting to come to terms with Mann. About time!
Sometimes I think the Twitter bird should have a rope in its mouth for all the pleasure it affords.
It must be terribly frustrating to be the greatest climate scientist that ever was, and undoubtedly one of the top ten scientific minds of all time — and have to put up with colleagues who are Neanderthals who dare question your pronouncements. . . . . . .
I’ve noted that much of this terminology is now being said without regard to gender, indicating that the users might not understand their true meaning.
Having had the pleasure of meeting Rob Wilson from my old University, there are two things I can say about him:
1. Whilst he is willing to engage with us, he is not a sceptic and certainly not a denier
2. Even though I disagree with him, he was extremely pleasant and welcoming when I met him.
Mann has an incurable habit of falling on his own knife.
Barry,
I think you missed the best tweet of the bunch.
Michael E. Mann @MichaelEMann 6h
@flimsin Tamsin, I don’t need to be lectured on “tone” by you, of all people. Uninterested in a profile-raising twitter debate w/ you.
Collapse Reply Retweet Favorite More
6:20 AM – 21 Oct 13 · Details
I snorted with delight at his pompous “disavowal” tweet.
https://twitter.com/MichaelEMann/status/392311221371678720
And just in case:
http://i.imgur.com/7tjXGw8.png
One of the most important lessons that I take from watching people like Mann is that it is very important to consider each criticism of what I do carefully with a mind to whether it is a fair point or not. Shouting down people to shut them up is about the worst reaction one can have to well-deserved criticism, because the problems don’t go away but fester under the surface. By shouting them down, I can make my critics go away for a time, but the deficiencies they have observed will continue to exist. And if the conduct they are criticizing continue and even get worse, I would have to shout down more and more people. If I were to force people to choose between being true to their ideals and ideas and not being screamed at, people with integrity would be driven by me into having to be my enemies. The more I screamed and abused, the greater the number of people I would convert into my opposition.
If Mann had swallowed his pride and worked with Steven McIntyre to properly analyze his data, perhaps it would have resulted in a paper that said uncertainties are so high that the data doesn’t tell us anything, perhaps he would have missed out the celebrity status of having his work be front and center in an IPCC assessment, but he would have advanced human knowledge instead of corrupting it.
Rather than correcting the deficiencies in his work, Mann concentrated on maintaining a pretense that his papers are unassailable. I expect that the result is that in the long run his reputation will be in tatters and his work will be a cautionary tale of bad science with which professors hammer freshman science majors.
Mann unhinged, hilarious how angry these guys get when questioned.
DGH says:
October 21, 2013 at 1:03 pm
Pretty funny coming from a trickster who refuses to debate any D-word scientists at all, let alone those with higher professional standing than the sniveling, megalomaniacal coward.
Is there any way of setting up a vote or poll along the lines of …
is the paper a crock of ****
Yes
No
Dont Know
Then let the consensus decide then it will be a true AGW type test and Mann MUST go along with the consensus.
“The definition of the slang word “cooch” is: the female genitalia”
“When you’ve tweeted yourself into a hole, stop tweeting.”
——————————————-
Hah! 😉
…This was a session where I wanted the students to critically look at the different studies and specifically address what we can learn from them and how the science can move on over the next decade….
I congratulate Dr. Wilson, whose course seems to be packed with informative education. I believe that the lucky students on it will have had a superb introduction to a wide variety of academic experiences, many of which will be concerned with paleoclimatology. And many of which will be of wider application across science and human activity in general…
When a very small man puts on a very large hat, you see nothing but a pair of boots and a hat ricocheting about the room and crashing into the furnishings. Pretty entertaining to watch, actually.