Readers surely recall the wild claim yesterday made by researchers from Princeton University and the University of California-Berkeley who reported in the journal Science that even slight spikes in temperature and precipitation have greatly increased the risk of personal violence and social upheaval throughout human history:
Dr. Indur Goklany writes:
Regarding climate change and violence, here are a couple of slides you should link to on WUWT. Apparently, during the “hottest decades” as some claim the 1990s and 2000s have been, U.S. homicide rates dropped!
Figs. 1 and 2: Source: Claude Fischer, A Crime Puzzle, http://thepublicintellectual.org/2011/05/02/a-crime-puzzle/, May 2, 2011
Fig. 3: Indicators of homicides per 100,000 population in England, thirteenth to twentieth centuries. Note: Each dot represents the estimated homicide rate for a city or county for periods ranging from several years to several decades. Source: Michael Eisner, Long Term Historical Trends in Violent Crime based on Gurr (1981)
It seems that real world data doesn’t support the conjectures from the hallowed halls of academia.
- Scientists say global violence could rise with global warming (upi.com)
- Hot and bothered: Climate warming predicted to increase violent conflicts | @BobOHara & @GrrlScientist (theguardian.com)
- Climate change linked to violent behaviour (talesfromthelou.wordpress.com)
- Youth homicide rate hits lowest mark in 30 years (onlineathens.com)
- Gun Homicide Rate Down 49% Since 1993 Peak (ritholtz.com)
- Gun Homicide rates are actually down, not up (buyashotgun.wordpress.com)