Another inconvenient truth – 2012 US tornado count well below normal

The chart above shows that at this time in 2011, the annual running total was about 400 tornadoes *above* normal; a mirror opposite of 2012.
That is very interesting since global temperatures were very similar. With regards to Hadcrut4 for example, the average for the first ten months of the year is 0.443. This would rank 9th if it stayed this way. I do not see how it will get above 9th place since the average for the last two months would need to be 0.653 to rise to 8th place. The 2011 anomaly at 0.399 puts 2011 in 12th place. The other data sets show similar trends. How do the warmists explain this?

They’re going to say it anyway ! and will be believed by the obama drones.
When will you get it that facts dont matter anymore? The lefts answer to inconvenient facts is to just keep repeating the same emotional lies.-
Polar bears are dying, the seas are rising, its getting hotter, glaciers are almost gone.

@kadaka: RE: Heidi Cullen: US hit by record storms and rising oceans, ice sheets melting 20x faster…
Horse-Hockey-Stick!

I suppose many believe they need these kinds of prediction and perhaps they do. They are that and just that, predictions and no better then any other “educated guess”. We all need to step back a bit when using this kind of information in the first place. Almost all of these types of predictions are based on some science, some history and lots of assumptions. Unfortunately they are all to often used with an agenda. All to often that agenda is designed to assist this or that group to keep their lucrative jobs or by organizations such as insurance companies and the like to try and justify otherwise unjustified cost increases or better put unjustified additional profits.

Good thing real tornadoes are down, cause the usual suspects are spinning their propaganda so hard, they are generating mini storms of their own. Wonder if all the spin in Doha shows up on the Doppler radar? That would be unprecedented, and a cause for alarm.

Richard Holle says:
November 29, 2012 at 12:11 am
[Comment from over on the tail end the pineapple express thread, that still fits here, I would estimate fewer than 25 tornadoes generated , more in the 12 to 18 range if my forecast maps for the 2nd 3rd of December prove to be accurate]
News flash this is just another Lunar declinational surge in the global circulation, the moon is maximum North declination today, 11-29-2012, for this 27.32 day cycle. The real kicker that causes the extra rainfall and larger storm, greater wind intensity is that we are having a heliocentric conjunction with Jupiter on December 3rd, which is adding extra ionic energy gradient across the frontal boundary.
There is a charge up period for the five days before synod conjunction, that drives positive ions from the equator into the mid-latitudes, that peaks at maximum declinational extent, then as the moon starts to move South again, it drags in the (negatively – charged) cold polar air mass to wring the moisture out of the (positively + charged) fetch of tropical air giving rise to the enhanced rainfall rates and resultant totals.
As this system moves East, Texas will probably see some of this rainfall, and by the 2nd and 3rd the position of the tropical fetch of moisture will be poised over the Arkansas, Tennessee, Kentucky, Alabama, and Mississippi, area and spawn a winter outbreak of tornadoes, just as the synod conjunction with Jupiter passes peak alignment and enhances the effect, so expect the severe weather to extend on to the East coast the 4th and 5th as well.
Most extreme weather events are the result of these outer planet enhancements of the normal lunar declinational tidal effects, which is why we are having a lull in hurricanes (no conjunctions till fall, mid winter) and severe tornado outbreaks the past couple of years with Saturn synods with the earth in March 22 2010, April 3rd 2011, April 15th 2012, and April 28th 2013, driving the intense tornado outbreaks in the springs.
CO2 has nothing to do with it, check the dates for past severe weather events with the heliocentric (Synod) conjunctions with the outer planets, much is explained and it adds a lot to the ability to forecast severe weather years in advance, try it you will like it.

This is an EXTREME absence of tornadoes, so it’s perfectly consistent with AGW. Remember that a few years ago when Antarctica appeared to be losing ice mass, it was because of AGW. It was then determined that Antarctica was gaining ice, and that was explained by increased moisture and snowfall over the south pole caused by AGW. Now NSIDC has reported that Antarctica IS losing ice, and (again) it’s because of AGW. I know it’s a running joke that everything is due to AGW, but I wish they’d get their hysteria straight.
To borrow a line from A Man For All Seasons, one can only hope that when their heads stop spinning their face is to the front.

Tonight Shep Smith on Fox News reported that this was the third most active tornado year ever.
Apparently they don’t mind fudging the facts.

What this shows is that tornado frequency is not an indicator of any relevance to climate. Anyone that even mentions them is simply stating nonsense for political points. An honest scientist should look at this data, see the variability and pronounce it “non-definitive”. And ask “What else have you got?”

Is it just me, or is there a sad air of desperation and defeat about the spin-meisters of doom by weather? I sense they are not even making the effort, to at least sound plausible, anymore.

Thanks Bill McG
You were right in your comment at mid-year. As you are probably aware Joe Bastardi called it correct a few months earlier when things looked really different. Are you aware of his methods?
Holle has his own calculation approach and it seems to be able to predict things a year or more ahead. I am always impressed by robust predictions because I like engineering which is all about understanding the mechanisms and make reliable products.
A long time friend of mine who harasses me on another blog thinks that if we keep the CO2 level down to 350 ppm we will avert great and even humanity threatening disasters and I am really sure he got that idea from you.
I would like to know from you how you concluded that 350 is the right number. All available evidence suggests that lower CO2 means more frequent and more power tornadoes, especially the latter category. All records save property damage (for obvious reasons of an ever-advancing civilization) are in the past and we don’t even have a long set of records. All we know for sure is a warming world means fewer and less powerful hurricanes and storms and tornadoes. I am sure you have also seen the hurricane power chart.
So it will interest me to know how you came to the opposite conclusion. Any “model” that matched the past would not project a reversal in tornado numbers. In fact from a thermodynamic perspective the energy driver. – temperature gradients – are reduced in a warming world.
Thanks in advance.