Northern California’s coming super soaker event via the ‘Pineapple Express’

UPDATE: Added this HiDef imag showing a trio of lows (commas shaped clouds) in the Gulf of Alaska and southward:

Click image to enlarge to HDTV size

There’s lots of buzz here in Northern California about a series of upcoming storms starting today and through the weekend that are expected to bring gusty winds and significant rain. So much rain in fact, that there is likely to be flooding. Some reports have my area of NorCal getting as much as 20″ of rain (~75% of the normal seasonal total). I think that is over-forecasted, but it certainly is a possibility.

I remember one similar event in the El Niño years of the 1990′s, a “March Miracle” that dropped ~17″ of rain in a  24 hour period in the mountains just east of me at a DWR weather station called “Four Trees” above the Feather River Canyon. It was such an anomaly that former California State Climatologist Jim Goodridge and I set out to see if maybe the rain gauge had a urinal attached or some other such issue. It turned out that the station was fine.

The setup of this series of storm systems in not unlike that event though, a strong, deep, Arctic low will guide the storms with its rotation right into Northern California as an “Atmospheric River” (AR) or “Pineapple Express” as we often call it.

TWC writes:

Amazingly, according to NOAA’s Earth System Research Laboratory (ESRL), a strong AR can transport as water vapor up to 15 times the average flow of liquid water at the mouth of the Mississippi River!

Suffice to say, if an AR stalls over a particular area, significant flooding can be the result.  In fact, a study by Ralph et al. (2006) found ARs responsible for every flood of northern Calfornia’s Russian River in a 7-year period.

According to NOAA/ESRL, 30-50% of the average annual precipitation in the West Coast states typically occurs in just a few AR events. With that in mind, one such AR is poised to soak parts of the West Coast this week.

The Quantitative Precipitation Forecast (QPF) model for this event is quite striking, putting the most significant rainfall into Butte County (where I live), Tehama County, and Plumas County from about Midnight Thursday to 10AM PST Friday as seen in these two plots:

That works out to ~ 5 inches in a 12 hour period for those two hotspots in NE Butte County. This image below shows the 5 day total expected rainfall courtesy of the NOAA NWS Hydrometeorological Prediction Center.

That should place some significant strain on the Feather River and Russian River watersheds.

There’s also concern over burn areas from summer fires that may get so saturated that mud and debris flows might be issues:

NWS Sacramento has prepared a video briefing:

Note that no place does NWS say there’s any connection to climate, CO2, or global warming. But just watch, the first news report of some related event or disaster will likely prompt those political activists that want to make you believe things like this are “unprecedented” and exacerbated by “global warming” to make some connection for their purposes.

My local newspaper, the Enterprise Record has a good editorial today about preparedness and Hurricane Sandy. I especially liked this part:

Most of us live in an environment of asphalt and sturdy buildings, with nature tamed into lawns and shrubs and shade trees. Even our “natural” parks are pretty polite places. We throw the switch and the lights come on. We turn the tap, and water comes out of the faucet. Nature is distant and remembered through a romantic mist.

(Read it all here.)

Which is why when political activists like Bill McKibben try to stir up emotions over routine weather events, he is often successful at convincing the gullible that somehow, the weather has changed and turned more sinister, and that people are to blame.

That sort of “blame the witches” thinking went out with the middle ages.

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81 thoughts on “Northern California’s coming super soaker event via the ‘Pineapple Express’

  1. I forgot all about the “Pineapple Express”. Haven’t heard that term in a few rainy seasons. I was noticing that this storm is warmer than normal for this time of year, and a PE driven storm certainly explains it..

  2. Hi

    Thanks for the heads up. Is there any significant snow pack in the Sierras yet — e.g. at Donner’s summit?

    Jim

  3. Great article Anthony-puts things in perspective.Anyone who lives with nature just outside the
    door knows that it isn’t all Bambi and Thumper (and Bambi had to put up with the possibility of being venison chili or getting burned to a Deer fritter in a fire.). wife and I both have Appalachian
    (and Ozark) roots. being prepared is a way of life.BTW this is a fairly typical El Nino pattern is it
    not?
    One other thing the USFS used to replant with temporary grass seed when there was a big fire.
    to reduce the possibility of flooding-not being done any more?

  4. I remember the 1964 floods (the “thousand year” floods), so major flooding can happen from these type events. This doesn’t look to me like that class of event … at least I hope it doesn’t go that way :) :) :).

    For those who don’t know the history of N. Cal., there was flooding in 1955 that then gov. Brown (the elder) called the “hundred year floods”. Nine years later there were much worse floods which then gov. Reagan had to describe, hence the inflation of terms. Clearly there aren’t enough statistics to clearly describe the probability of either event.

  5. Clouds may be moving in but the ChicoER shines.

    It’s not just the individuals who need to prepare; using their own initiative! Too many local governments are so obsessed with planet saving that they are ignoring their own back yards. As a result, they can’t keep 20 inches of rain at bay in 24 hours; so there’s no hope they’ll be able to do anything about 20 feet of sea level rise in 90 years. ;-)

  6. Gotta marvel at all this rain.

    In Australia the whole AGW story a few years ago was all about incessant drought. It seems to barely stop raining here since then….. and most farmers are happy about that, in spite of occasional flooding.

  7. Lets hope its doesn’t match the sysetm that parked over California for 45 days, in 1861-1862.

    http://www.google.co.uk/url?sa=t&rct=j&q=&esrc=s&frm=1&source=web&cd=2&cad=rja&ved=0CDkQFjAB&url=http%3A%2F%2Fmeteora.ucsd.edu%2Fcap%2Fpdffiles%2FARkStorm_Summit_Handout_Final.pdf&ei=Kze2UMj8LpHo9gSA4YCYBA&usg=AFQjCNELeOSRSTc5uTcGJ2MCh9GTcf4viw&sig2=lLJg2K4ObpwI2RAej10jeg

    If it does, we will have Mckibben tring to sell a global warming sandwich, with Sandy on one side, California the other.

    Ah heck, why even try. Even it just rains, its the fault of AGW.

  8. Allways a good work, Anthony.

    Something similar is appening here in NW Italy, with a strong vortex centered on the Ligurian Sea (Northern Thyrrenian Sea).

    PS I’ve been there back in 1999, I remember Northern California as a very beautiful country; I’ve also spent a few hours in Sacramento at the Bureau of Mine and Geology…

  9. Your note about the potential for mass wasting a byproduct of forest fires is as real or perhaps even more real then the flood potential. That flood potential is increased by the lack of forest cover too. Lots of snow a higher elevations is good for skiing though.

  10. polistra says:

    Unsurprisingly, we’re still rerunning 1938.

    http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Los_Angeles_flood_of_1938

    (Checking these cycles is like shooting fish in a barrel. I simply googled ‘California 1938 rain’ and sure enough, a record-breaker. You don’t need theories when you’ve got cycles.)

    Indeed, the first thing I thought when I saw this was “global cooling”. As the atmosphere cools it will start dumping it’s water content.

    Start writing articles now debunking more claims “extreme weather” BS from weeping Bill & co.

    I’m sure they’re already writing some crap blaming this on global warming before the rain has even fallen.

  11. Reminds me that while I was driving through northern California on vacation in the mid 70s. I was driving down US101 after leaving Eureka when the highway took a more inland route. When coming around a curve there was suddenly a deep valley to the left. There was a sign on the right saying ‘High Water Mark’ for some floods maybe 10 years back or so. That valle’ was so deep I could barely see a small creek at the bottom. Must have been a couple 100 feet or more down to the creek. I think it was the Russian river? I grew up in western Oregon so the mountains on the west coast are familiar too me and that was no ravine, it was a deep valley. I still find it hard to believe.

    I wonder if that flooding was caused by the same kind of event described here.

  12. Jim Rose says:
    November 28, 2012 at 7:48 am

    Hi

    Thanks for the heads up. Is there any significant snow pack in the Sierras yet — e.g. at Donner’s summit?

    Jim

    Here in the Fresno / Yosemite area, the expected snow level from this storm is going to be only at 7500ft elevation. It’s a warm storm for this time of year. But the warm ones normally bring more rain, and hopefully this one will add a good amount of water to the reservoirs.

  13. Bob: I have relatives in the UK, so keep up with the new there. Saw the BBC news shouting about 2″ of rain in 24 hours, checked my weather station and on the sam day, we had 2.5″ … just a normal day in the life, here in sunny Oregon.

  14. So how much energy will be release into space?

    How much of that energy will be what could be considered more than normal?

  15. Anthony,

    Thanks for the heads up. I have lived in Northern California all my life and have experienced the periodic flooding brought on by these events. During the 12/96-1/97 event, the Feather River drainage received as much as 33 inches of rain in 6 days and 42 inches in 9 days. I remember one article that stated that the cumulative water flow of all Northern California stream gauges exceeded 3 million cubic feet per second at peak flow. Thank goodness for engineers, construction workers and dams. Otherwise it would have been 1862 all over again.

    See link for more information. I also remember the 1964 and 1986 floods quite well.

    If this type of event occurred in the “Sandy Zone”, what would the result have been with regard to flooding. It appears from the TV feeds that the river valleys in the east tend to be flatter with less ability to transmit water to the coast. Are there any studies / articles that comment on ability to handle massive, longer term rain such as we get here?

    file:///Users/paulbhull/Documents/Science/Floods/CNRFC%20-%20Storm%20Summaries%20-%20December%2026,%201996%20-%20January%203,%201997.webarchive

  16. There’s some prime Bigfoot habitat in the Trinity Mountains. Will the Greenies be mounting a rescue mission for this endangered species?

  17. I remember the New Year’s day flood in ’97 very well in greater Sacramento. Everyone was watching the American River, and the dang Cosumnes almost washed my neighborhood in the southern ‘burbs away.

    I also remember the ’86 storms when water was coming over the top at Folsom dam for at least a few hours. I was working downtown Sacramento at the time, and when I got out of town that day to go home, I said to myself if it was still raining in the morning, I wasn’t even going to try to go downtown, because even if I got in, I might not get out again.

  18. I read the book indicated below, and despite some issues, the author describes, in the opening chapter, the flooding and landslides at Rio Nido, CA (60 mi. NW of San Francisco) during a storm in early Feb., 1998. The book is now available at used book stores and, if you can find a copy, will give you something to read as the rain pours from the sky.
    Good Luck.

    El Niño: Unlocking the Secrets of the Master Weather-Maker
    J. Madeleine Nash (first published in March, 2002)

  19. Remind your neighbors not to purchase any property insurance, as the State of California can recoup any losses from the federal government by blaming man made Climate Change. I’m waiting for a tropical storm to come up the Gulf of California and inundate Arizona so that we can finally get the federal government to underground some our overhead powerlines. It appears New York City will get their infrastructure replaced by federal tax dollars thanks to Sandy, via man made Climate Change. Isn’t this how the new economy works?

  20. Les Johnson says:
    November 28, 2012 at 8:12 am

    …Ah heck, why even try. Even it just rains, its the fault of AGW.
    ____________________________________
    And if it is too dry it is the fault of AGW and if it is too cold it is AGW and if it snows it is AGW….

    Can we blame the stupidity of politicians on AGW too?

  21. Anthony: Must make you salivate. This is CALLED WEATHER! And being (at heart) a Weatherman…you should be having a BLAST over this.

    Make a final report would you? (He he he, it would be very interesting to compare predictions, warnings and reality in a week.)

    Max

  22. Hi Terry, Yep, the sign was from the ’64 flood. It was very impressive. All land routes were cut off for more than a month. The army had to create their own roads and temporary bridges to finally get in. It was a real challenge to get support back into the hill communities. There was an aircraft carrier offshore after a week or two, but it was longer before helicopters could fly. When they did finally reach some of the small communities they found that the local fixed wing aircraft had already gotten there (landing on a section of road).

  23. Terry

    Back in 1985 my wife and I came around that same turn. We saw the sign but had to look up to find the high water mark about 30 feet up a redwood tree. I then noticed all the trees had a brown stain up to the same level. Unbelievable! That was the 1963 Eel River flood. We were looking at moving to Ferndale, near the mouth of the Eel River and started having second thoughts.

    As far as I know nothing has been done to prevent the same thing from happening again.

    Dave
    Sacramento

  24. For those wondering about snowpack in the West, here’s the Snotel Narrative, which I consider one of the better references to track river basins on a state-by-state basis:

    http://www.wrcc.dri.edu/cgi-bin/sno_narr3_pl

    So far, it appears the northern tiers of lower-48 states (WA, OR, ID, MT, WY) are getting more than their fair share of the moisture so far, while the southern tier (CA, NV, UT, CO, AZ, NM) are not getting their fair share!

    Maybe we can ask the federal government to step in: Precipitation redistribution, anybody? *snort*

    For a color indexed visualization of snowpack, here’s another (with last year’s being the most recent, of course):

    http://www.wcc.nrcs.usda.gov/cgibin/westsnow.pl

    Interesting to see how the distribution of snow varies from year to year (just click on each of the “May” buttons).

  25. It certainly will be blamed on CAGW/CO2.

    Here in the UK the usual suspects are screaming “man made climate change is here!” and the MSM, especially the BBC is more than willing to help them.

    Those in the path of this storm – stay safe.

  26. a native of Mendoland I remember the ’64 rains, while the Eel River marks on 101 are impressive it is a rather narrow canyon – taking the road from Boont (Boonville) down the Navarro river watershed there are some areas where you can still see the mud on the trunks of the redwoods (most of the High Water markers have been stolen over the years) where it is the highest the valley is over a mile wide and the marks are 60′ or more above the normal river level – and the longer term cycle (geologic ages) there are sedimentary rocks that were laid down in the Pacific from periodic floods that have been twisted and now sit at 7,000′ on top of much younger formations, This is nothing new for NorCal

  27. Dave Trimble, Ferndale survived just fine. The bridge across to Ferndale was one of the few that didn’t wash out. The flooding was exacerbated by two things. First, there used to be a lot of clear-cutting back then, meaning that in some areas there wasn’t much to hold the runoff back. Second, the rivers tend to run parallel to the coast, so that with a large storm you get rainfall over the entire watershed at the same time. Flood waters come up fast. There’s no time for warnings and no time to decide to get out.

    A bit OT, but I remember as a kid spending the night in a pullout in the Big Thompson canyon in CO. My father, the next day, said that he couldn’t sleep for listening to the creek to see if it was rising. A couple of years later, a storm sat over the upper basin. The resulting rain overwhelmed the dam near Estes Park and a number of people in the canyon didn’t make it. Some were never found. The thought of being in a narrow canyon when the water’s rising is beyond scary.

    In the ’64 flood, all rivers north of S.F into western Oregon were like that.

  28. Dave Trimble says: “As far as I know nothing has been done to prevent the same thing from happening again.”

    What would you propose be done, Dave? This is the human mental fallacy that comes up over and over. That we can ‘do’ something about overwhelming forces of nature. Nothing can be done when it rains enough to send the river to 750,000 cubic feet per second as it did in 1964. That flow is enough to fill Lake Shasta, the largest reservoir in California, from dead empty to the top in just about 70 hours.

    So what would you propose should be done? I would propose nothing. It is often the answer, we are just not prone to accept it.

  29. Videodrone says:

    Video,

    Have you been partaking of the crop known locally as Mendocino Gold (or Green)? The Navarro River is less than 30 miles long with a watershed of +/- 315 sq miles. The Eel is over 300 miles long with a watershed of over 3,800 sq miles. The river valley of the Eel below the forks is quite wide with gently sloping sides. The width of the river at high water, near Ferndale was in excess of one mile.

    We need to read the history folks. The flood on your creek was not the biggest in the world.

  30. I’m currently in the San Francisco Bay Area.
    The main rain just finished coming through here.
    Brief heavy rain and a couple of gusts, now light rain.

    This is residual “Sandy Superstorm Hype” judging by what just came through.
    It didn’t even qualify as a “storm” in my book, just rain.

    I won’t be surprised to hear about something “unprecedented” about this weather in the local lefty news.

    Butte County looks to be getting a good wetting. But like here, it might not last very long.

  31. Get out the snorkels.

    (FEMA might just see fit to order in 100 trainloads of Brawny paper towels. Your tax dollars at work.)

  32. McComber, A suggestion for CA would be to not build in a flood plain. A lot of subdivisions down LA way are and will flood if there’s a repeat of ’38. A lot of the Sacto suburbs are completely dependent on the levees to protect them. Back in 1862, one of the reasons the flooding around Sacto was so bad was that there had been uncontrolled hydraulic mining in the Trinity Alps for a number of years prior. The resulting sediment runoff raised the level of the river beds in Sacto by quite a bit. After the flood, hydraulic mining was banned. IMHO Sacto is still quite vulnerable to any large-scale major rain event.

    In the north, there’s a subdivision called Shelter Cove that was created on a small peninsula, the only place the San Andreas comes ashore much north of SF. The soil is fine grind. The slopes are visibly sliding into the ocean.

    Just using some common sense in building locations and (simple!) land use rules would go a long ways.

  33. I’ve just seen the update. I remember much more impressive storm trains from when I was young. Maybe we’re entering a decade or two where such things will become common again? After all, the far north of CA was hit with significant flooding in ’55, ’64, and ’68. I remember that when growing up (’53-’72) it rained heavily every winter, a pattern that has certainly not continued after I left the region.

  34. Uh oh… the sun just broke through….

    Holes in the Clouds !!! Help !!

    Yes it’s a Rotten Pineapple Express full of holes !!

    “Unprecedented” after all.

    Since the sun is out, I’m going out for a walk to survey the damage…
    so far I’m not impressed. Too bad it stopped… we can use the rain.

  35. MComber,

    Sorry, no partaking of the local crop – I actually have to work for a living,
    What I was trying to point out (poorly I’ll admit) was not that the Eel was less of flood – as you correctly point out it’s 10 times the size of Navarro but the proportional amount of water flowing through that short watershed was “impressive” to say the least.

    anyway, as Kbray points out the sun is out and no one is at the range, think I’ll head over and punch holes in paper before the next wave

  36. > I remember one similar event in the El Niño years of the 1990′s, a “March Miracle” that dropped ~17″ of rain in a 24 hour period ….

    If that’s the March Miracle I remember, I was San Jose at an event called Connectathon. We were there for something like 12 days working on getting our computers to share files with other vendors (and arch-rivals in the marketplace). This was the tail end of a five year drought and people were wringing their hands about the lack of rain that winter. It rained 11 days of that trip and no one seemed apologetic. The convention hall (not the big one in SJ) roof leaked, I don’t think there were floods in the San Jose area, but some reservoirs filled and mud slides happened in the places where mud used to slide. I don’t think there has been as serious a drought since.

    It was probably 1991, wouldn’t be too hard to check.

    In another year, a series of storms from Alaska brought snow levels lower and lower and almost into Silicon Valley. Another rainy year raised the Guadaloupe River in San Jose from its normal “you call that a river?” state to flooding that threatened the convention hall. We had a group meeting to talk about the possibility of evacuation, but the water never reached the sand bags. I took photos at a “land office” that had a foot of water in it, and CNN had footage of the same spot that night on their programs.

    I haven’t been to a Connectathon in at least seven years, but I learned a lot about Northern California weather during them. They finally fixed the roof as part of the preparation for the 1998 El Nino. The weather for that week was pretty boring.

  37. This happens once or twice every couple of years.

    Two years ago the 14 inch bullseye was right over us….we got 21 feet of snow in 3 days. It was later season so there was already a good base too.

    I saved the qpf jpg and I have awesome pics from that one.

  38. “That sort of “blame the witches” thinking went out with the middle ages.”

    Yea, it went out, but came right back – rebranded.

    At one time we had indeed started moving away from mythical explanations for natural phenomena like rainbows and whatnot towards scientific explanations and reasoning, but just when one might have thought science and reason were dominating over mysticism and fear along comes global warming, radical environmentalism, and precautionism. Even some “scientists” are preaching the new religion and look at us now, on the verge of regulating CO2 as a pollutant. Some future school teacher will one day be lecturing on the rocky path to reason and point to this period as one of the back slides. Yes, I’m optimistic that we’ll get there one day. I’m sure I’ll be long gone by then.

  39. MikeP,

    I could agree with not building in a flood plain, however that would include the entire Central Valley of California, so probably not. During the 1862 floods a lake formed that was estimated to be from 300-400 miles long and 50-70 miles wide. While it is true that hydraulic mining exacerbated localized flooding, the floods of 1862/63 were caused by massive amounts or rain for a period of over four weeks.

    Are we still vulnerable? Certainly. The only reason we did not have catastrophic flooding in January 1997 was that the rain stopped. Oroville dam was within 8 hours of increasing releases from 160,000 CFS to 300,000 CFS when the rain stopped. Since Sacramento levees were already at the top, the additional water would most likely have resulted in widespread overtopping of levees in the region.

    Remember, all of the valley is filled with silt from storm run off! There is no really safe place when the pineapple express in running full from the west. It does make a great place to grow nearly any kind of crop you might desire though.

    PS: No water (or hydraulic mine tailings) from the Trinity Alps will reach Sacramento. The runoff from the Trinity Alps flows into the Trinity or Klamath Rivers.

  40. I’m disappointed – but not surprised – that snow levels will rise so high but at least this series of storms will do wonders for our water storage.

  41. Every year we hear the [snip] in California whining about the teeny, tiny bit of fluff they call rain they get each fall. Man up. Grow a pair and head north 1000 miles and see some real rain. Every year we get a couple of Kalifornians step outside at the wrong time. Single drop hits em and they drown less we start CPR.

  42. McComber, From Wikipedia:

    Many floods occurred later in the city of Sacramento and other low lying cities along the Sierra born rivers due to hydraulic mining at locations in the foothills e.g. malakoff diggings in which sludge runoffs purportedly raised the river beds in the valley below, an additional 2 ft.

    Hydraulic Gold mining became a hot topic for the time and was eventually stopped by Ca. Lawmakers. Malokoff diggings is now a State Park missing a whole mountain due to the massive water jets that can still be seen there. Well worth the visit. Camping allowed, the old city still stands.[4]

  43. I’m one of the few jumping up and down and cheering about this. I have been dying for some real weather.

    Mind you, some places (parts of Stockton and Sacramento) are not, shall we say, *ideally* sited for this kind of thing.

  44. I lived in Artesia (southern Cal) when I was 12 and I remember huge floods and people going down the streets in small fishing boats. I have a few peictures even.

  45. Superstorm Sammy? Anyway, what are the chances that this is the event that submerges Sacremento? That looks like a bit of rain; so I was curious. Then there’s the mudslides. Just figure an expectation is needed to inform beforehand, while expecting ‘climate change’ agitprop afterward. Well, that combined with every level of government incompetence in the reaction.

  46. News flash this is just another Lunar declinational surge in the global circulation, the moon is maximum North declination today, 11-29-2012, for this 27.32 day cycle. The real kicker that causes the extra rainfall and larger storm, greater wind intensity is that we are having a heliocentric conjunction with Jupiter on December 3rd, which is adding extra ionic energy gradient across the frontal boundary.

    There is a charge up period for the five days before synod conjunction, that drives positive ions from the equator into the mid-latitudes, that peaks at maximum declinational extent, then as the moon starts to move South again, it drags in the (negatively – charged) cold polar air mass to wring the moisture out of the (positively + charged) fetch of tropical air giving rise to the enhanced rainfall rates and resultant totals.

    As this system moves East, Texas will probably see some of this rainfall, and by the 2nd and 3rd the position of the tropical fetch of moisture will be poised over the Arkansas, Tennessee, Kentucky, Alabama, and Mississippi, area and spawn a winter outbreak of tornadoes, just as the synod conjunction with Jupiter passes peak alignment and enhances the effect, so expect the severe weather to extend on to the East coast the 4th and 5th as well.

    Most extreme weather events are the result of these outer planet enhancements of the normal lunar declinational tidal effects, which is why we are having a lull in hurricanes (no conjunctions till fall, mid winter) and severe tornado outbreaks the past couple of years with Saturn synods with the earth in March 22 2010, April 3rd 2011, April 15th 2012, and April 28th 2013, driving the intense tornado outbreaks in the springs.

    CO2 has nothing to do with it, check the dates for past severe weather events with the heliocentric (Synod) conjunctions with the outer planets, much is explained and it adds a lot to the ability to forecast severe weather years in advance, try it you will like it.

  47. H.R. says:
    November 28, 2012 at 12:19 pm
    Get out the snorkels.
    (FEMA might just see fit to order in 100 trainloads of Brawny paper towels. Your tax dollars at wor
    —————————————————————————————————
    Well H.R.. they will really save you when you find out Homeland security is transporting you to the same location where they shipped their millions of rounds of hollow point bullets.

  48. OssQss, Graeme M, more soylent green:
    Climate scientists don’t use the 14 or 15 C. or any other temperature for determining how much/how fast the world has warmed.

    What they use is deviations from a baseline in each measured location; the baseline is specific to the location; it is the average of temperatures at that location over an agreed-upon baseline period, e.g., 1950-1980. The deviations are called “anomalies.” In this context, “global mean temperature” refers to an anomaly, not a temperature; it is the average of current anomalies at all measured locations. It is a “temperature” in the sense that rising/falling anomalies imply rising/falling temperature, whatever the temperature may be. (There’s more to the averaging than I’ve indicated, but what I’ve indicated is the basic idea.)

    The fact that, in some other context, an actual temperature, such as 14 C. or 15 C. is called “global mean temperature” has nothing to do with this.

    I find it remarkable that anyone who didn’t even know this basic fact would have the nerve to write for publication, but this seems to me to be the situation with Kumar in American Thinker.

  49. Let me clarify something. I do not mean that anyone says that the global anomaly (of, say) 0.52 is the “global mean temperature.” It’s just that the term “global mean temperature” comes up in the context of talking about the anomaly.

  50. San Francisco Peninsula:
    2nd wave pineapple express:
    Just a trickle so far.

    At least 3 waves predicted.

    So far it’s been a Swiss Cheese Express, full of holes.
    For me anyway.

    This is not a typical California winter storm that rains solid for several days.
    Hoping for more solid continuous rain.

  51. Richard Holle says:
    November 29, 2012 at 12:11 am

    ============

    What you have written in your comment is interesting. I will be watching next weeks weather.

    Since the concept of the planetary alignments is somewhat beyond my reach, could you direct me to a more detailed description with some graphics for the “beginner” on this?

  52. UPDATE FROM NORTHERN CALIFORNIA:

    Human activities cause reduction in projected rainfall from Pineapple Expresses.

    Still not raining here. 9:53pm PST

  53. eyesonu says:
    November 29, 2012 at 9:13 pm
    What you have written in your comment is interesting. I will be watching next weeks weather.

    Since the concept of the planetary alignments is somewhat beyond my reach, could you direct me to a more detailed description with some graphics for the “beginner” on this?

    Links to part of 102 posts, of my and others blog comments, references, and four lengthy pages of charts, a couple of movies, and graphs that can be found here: http://research.aerology.com/

    http://research.aerology.com/lunar-declinational-affects-on-tornado-production/

    http://research.aerology.com/aerology-analog-weather-forecasting-method/

    http://research.aerology.com/natural-processes/galactic-perspective/

  54. It’s raining pretty hard outside my Elk Grove classroom at the moment, but as I can see from reading the comments, a lot of us have weathered similar and worse in our lifetimes, so…no bigs.

    And dang, there are a surprising many of us from the Sacramento area!

  55. My younger brother, (up in the north of California near the Oregan border,) emailed me this afternoon that his front yard rain gauge just set a record (for his yard) of 2.36 inches in an hour. He only got around 2 inches yesterday, but the wind has been very strong.

    I hope you can update this thread. It is sinking down pretty low below the “new news,” even though it is still happening.

  56. Brandy Creek, CA, got 23 inches from this “Pineapple Express”. The forecasters, who said up to 20 inches was possible, were right. Even Anthony’s expectations were exceeded!

  57. Thank God… We just got a good soaker in the Ozark Mtns. Lakes and ponds might get a raise. Man, do we ever need it, they were very, very low!!!!! Yesterday, I just removed drought killed shrubs and stuff from the summer 2011. South of Branson, MO in the Upper Buffalo River Wilderness area got much of the Oklahoma & Texas 2011 scorcher and a lot of the Kansas & Nebraska’s 2012 drought.

    Keep pumping rain this way!!!!!

    http://www.intellicast.com/National/Radar/Current.aspx?region=lit&animate=true

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