UPDATE: The NWS in Mt. Holly NJ has put out an extraordinary statement, dropping the typical “gov speak” and pleading to people in direct language. See below.
GOES-14 has been brought into service again on October 25th, 2012 for SRSOR imaging of Hurricane Sandy. (h/t to Al Lipton) Here’s a super high resolution visible light image of Sandy from today at 19:41UTC:
Click image to enlarge to 2400×1372 pixels
While there is no well defined eye, there is evidence of increased cyclonic vorticity and organization. Here are the current stats on Sandy from NHC:
BULLETIN HURRICANE SANDY INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY NUMBER 25A NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL182012 200 PM EDT SUN OCT 28 2012 ...SANDY EXPECTED TO BRING LIFE-THREATENING STORM SURGE FLOODING TO THE MID-ATLANTIC COAST...INCLUDING LONG ISLAND SOUND AND NEW YORK HARBOR... ...WINDS FORECAST TO BE NEAR HURRICANE FORCE AT LANDFALL... RE-TRANSMITTED SUMMARY OF 200 PM EDT...1800 UTC...INFORMATION ---------------------------------------------- LOCATION...32.8N 71.9W ABOUT 270 MI...440 KM SE OF CAPE HATTERAS NORTH CAROLINA ABOUT 575 MI...930 KM S OF NEW YORK CITY MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...75 MPH...120 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...NE OR 50 DEGREES AT 14 MPH...22 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...951 MB...28.08 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY... NONE. SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT... A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR... * CAPE FEAR TO DUCK NORTH CAROLINA * PAMLICO AND ALBEMARLE SOUNDS * BERMUDA IN ADDITION...HURRICANE-FORCE WINDS ARE EXPECTED ALONG PORTIONS OF THE COAST BETWEEN CHINCOTEAGUE VIRGINIA AND CHATHAM MASSACHUSETTS. THIS INCLUDES THE MIDDLE AND UPPER CHESAPEAKE BAY...DELAWARE BAY...AND THE COASTS OF THE NORTHERN DELMARVA PENINSULA...NEW JERSEY...THE NEW YORK CITY AREA...LONG ISLAND...CONNECTICUT...AND RHODE ISLAND. TROPICAL-STORM-FORCE WINDS ARE EXPECTED NORTH OF CHATHAM TO MERRIMACK RIVER MASSACHUSETTS...THE LOWER CHESAPEAKE BAY...AND SOUTH OF CHINCOTEAGUE TO DUCK NORTH CAROLINA...THE NORTHERN ENDPOINT OF THE TROPICAL STORM WARNING. OTHER COASTAL AND INLAND WATCHES AND WARNINGS ARE IN EFFECT FOR THESE AREAS. PLEASE SEE STATEMENTS FROM LOCAL NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORECAST OFFICES. FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA IN THE UNITED STATES...INCLUDING POSSIBLE INLAND WATCHES AND WARNINGS...PLEASE MONITOR PRODUCTS ISSUED BY YOUR LOCAL NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORECAST OFFICE. FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA OUTSIDE THE UNITED STATES...PLEASE MONITOR PRODUCTS ISSUED BY YOUR NATIONAL METEOROLOGICAL SERVICE. DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK ------------------------------ AT 200 PM EDT...1800 UTC... AT 200 PM EDT...1800 UTC...THE CENTER OF HURRICANE SANDY WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 32.8 NORTH...LONGITUDE 71.9 WEST. SANDY IS MOVING TOWARD THE NORTHEAST NEAR 14 MPH...22 KM/H...AND THIS GENERAL MOTION IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE TODAY. A TURN TO THE NORTH AND THEN THE NORTHWEST IS EXPECTED TONIGHT AND EARLY MONDAY. ON THE FORECAST TRACK...THE CENTER OF SANDY IS FORECAST TO BE NEAR THE MID-ATLANTIC COAST MONDAY NIGHT. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 75 MPH...120 KM/H...WITH HIGHER GUSTS. SANDY IS EXPECTED TO TRANSITION INTO A FRONTAL OR WINTERTIME LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM PRIOR TO LANDFALL. HOWEVER...THIS TRANSITION WILL NOT BE ACCOMPANIED BY A WEAKENING OF THE SYSTEM...AND IN FACT A LITTLE STRENGTHENING IS POSSIBLE DURING THIS PROCESS. SANDY IS EXPECTED TO WEAKEN AFTER MOVING INLAND. HURRICANE-FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 175 MILES...280 KM...FROM THE CENTER...AND TROPICAL-STORM-FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 520 MILES...835 KM. AN AUTOMATED STATION AT CAPE HATTERAS RECENTLY REPORTED SUSTAINED WINDS OF 49 MPH...80 KM/H...WITH A GUST TO 62 MPH...100 KM/H. TROPICAL-STORM-FORCE WINDS HAVE NOW REACHED THE MOUTH OF THE SOUTHERN CHESAPEAKE BAY. THE MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE RECENTLY REPORTED BY AN AIR FORCE RESERVE HURRICANE HUNTER AIRCRAFT WAS 951 MB...28.08 INCHES. HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- WIND...TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE ALREADY OCCURRING OVER COASTAL NORTH CAROLINA AND SOUTHEASTERN VIRGINIA. GALE FORCE WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO ARRIVE ALONG PORTIONS OF THE MID-ATLANTIC COAST LATER TODAY...AND REACH LONG ISLAND AND SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND BY MONDAY MORNING. WINDS OF HURRICANE FORCE COULD REACH THE MID-ATLANTIC STATES...INCLUDING LONG ISLAND...BY LATE MONDAY. STORM SURGE...THE COMBINATION OF AN EXTREMELY DANGEROUS STORM SURGE AND THE TIDE WILL CAUSE NORMALLY DRY AREAS NEAR THE COAST TO BE FLOODED BY RISING WATERS. THE WATER COULD REACH THE FOLLOWING DEPTHS ABOVE GROUND IF THE PEAK SURGE OCCURS AT THE TIME OF HIGH TIDE... NC NORTH OF SURF CITY INCLUDING PAMLICO/ALBEMARLE SOUNDS...4 TO 6 FT SE VA AND DELMARVA INCLUDING LOWER CHESAPEAKE BAY...2 TO 4 FT UPPER AND MIDDLE CHESAPEAKE BAY...1 TO 3 FT LONG ISLAND SOUND...RARITAN BAY...AND NEW YORK HARBOR...6 TO 11 FT ELSEWHERE FROM OCEAN CITY MD TO THE CT/RI BORDER...4 TO 8 FT CT/RI BORDER TO THE SOUTH SHORE OF CAPE COD INCLUDING BUZZARDS BAY AND NARRAGANSETT BAY...3 TO 6 FT SURGE-RELATED FLOODING DEPENDS ON THE RELATIVE TIMING OF THE SURGE AND THE TIDAL CYCLE...AND CAN VARY GREATLY OVER SHORT DISTANCES. GIVEN THE LARGE WIND FIELD ASSOCIATED WITH SANDY...ELEVATED WATER LEVELS COULD SPAN MULTIPLE TIDE CYCLES RESULTING IN REPEATED AND EXTENDED PERIODS OF COASTAL AND BAYSIDE FLOODING. IN ADDITION... ELEVATED WATERS COULD OCCUR FAR REMOVED FROM THE CENTER OF SANDY. FURTHERMORE...THESE CONDITIONS WILL OCCUR REGARDLESS OF WHETHER SANDY IS A TROPICAL OR POST-TROPICAL CYCLONE. FOR INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA...PLEASE SEE PRODUCTS ISSUED BY YOUR LOCAL NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE OFFICE. RAINFALL...RAINFALL TOTALS OF 3 TO 6 INCHES ARE EXPECTED OVER FAR NORTHEASTERN NORTH CAROLINA WITH ISOLATED MAXIMUM TOTALS OF 8 INCHES POSSIBLE. RAINFALL AMOUNTS OF 4 TO 8 INCHES ARE EXPECTED OVER PORTIONS OF THE MID ATLANTIC STATES...INCLUDING THE DELMARVA PENINSULA...WITH ISOLATED MAXIMUM AMOUNTS OF 12 INCHES POSSIBLE. RAINFALL AMOUNTS OF 1 TO 3 INCHES WITH ISOLATED MAXIMUM AMOUNTS OF 5 INCHES ARE POSSIBLE FROM THE SOUTHERN TIER OF NEW YORK STATE NORTHEASTWARD THROUGH NEW ENGLAND. SNOWFALL..SNOW ACCUMULATIONS OF 2 TO 3 FEET ARE EXPECTED IN THE MOUNTAINS OF WEST VIRGINIA...WITH LOCALLY HIGHER TOTALS TONIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT. SNOWFALL OF 1 TO 2 FEET IS EXPECTED IN THE MOUNTAINS OF SOUTHWESTERN VIRGINIA TO THE KENTUCKY BORDER... WITH 12 TO 18 INCHES OF SNOW POSSIBLE IN THE MOUNTAINS NEAR THE NORTH CAROLINA/TENNESSEE BORDER.SURF...DANGEROUS SURF CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE FROM FLORIDA THROUGH THE MID-ATLANTIC STATES FOR THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS AND SPREAD INTO THE NORTHEASTERN STATES LATER TODAY.
Dr. Ryan Maue has a summary on the Weatherbell Forbes blog:
Hurricane Sandy: Deadly Storm Surge Brewing For NY, NJ Coastline
It is important to take note of the unusually low atmospheric pressure of Hurricane Sandy. The Saffir-Simpson hurricane scale is based entirely on maximum sustained winds near the hurricanes center. However, Sandy’s structure is not typical of hurricanes that exist in the deep tropics. A typical category 1 hurricane would only have hurricane force extending several tens of miles from the center. Sandy’s wind field is not concentrated near the center and hurricane force winds extend over 200 miles from the eye. As a result, significantly more seawater that normal is being driven toward the coast. The central pressure of the storm would be more indicative of a Category 2 or Category 3 hurricane.
NOAA is forecasting over 10 feet of storm surge into New York Harbor. Keep in mind that the storm surge during Hurricane Irene was approximately 3.5-4.6ft. The graphic below depicts just how dire the situation will become.
Similarly, Stevens Institute modeling is also forecasting a historic storm surge for NYC.
Just a reminder, October hurricanes hitting the Eastern USA seaboard are not something new, and certainly not a result of “global warming”.
UPDATE: This from NWS forecast office in Mt. Holly, NJ, it is quite something, and I don’t think I’ve ever seen the NWS make a statement like this (h/t to Ryan Maue):
PUBLIC INFORMATION STATEMENT NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOUNT HOLLY NJ 241 PM EDT SUN OCT 28 2012 ...AN EXTREMELY DANGEROUS STORM TO IMPACT THE AREA... SANDY IS EXPECTED TO SLAM INTO THE NEW JERSEY COAST LATER MONDAY NIGHT, BRINGING VERY HEAVY RAIN AND DAMAGING WINDS TO THE REGION. THE STORM IS A LARGE ONE, THEREFORE DO NOT FOCUS ON THE EXACT CENTER OF THE STORM AS ALL AREAS WILL HAVE SIGNIFICANT IMPACTS. THIS HAS THE POTENTIAL TO BE AN HISTORIC STORM, WITH WIDESPREAD WIND DAMAGE AND POWER OUTAGES, INLAND AND COASTAL FLOODING, AND MASSIVE BEACH EROSION. THE COMBINATION OF THE HEAVY RAIN AND PROLONGED WIND WILL CREATE THE POTENTIAL FOR LONG LASTING POWER OUTAGES AND SERIOUS FLOODING. PREPARATIONS SHOULD BE WRAPPING UP AS CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO WORSEN TONIGHT AND ESPECIALLY ON MONDAY. SOME IMPORTANT NOTES... 1. IF YOU ARE BEING ASKED TO EVACUATE A COASTAL LOCATION BY STATE AND LOCAL OFFICIALS, PLEASE DO SO. 2. IF YOU ARE RELUCTANT TO EVACUATE, AND YOU KNOW SOMEONE WHO RODE OUT THE `62 STORM ON THE BARRIER ISLANDS, ASK THEM IF THEY COULD DO IT AGAIN. 3. IF YOU ARE RELUCTANT, THINK ABOUT YOUR LOVED ONES, THINK ABOUT THE EMERGENCY RESPONDERS WHO WILL BE UNABLE TO REACH YOU WHEN YOU MAKE THE PANICKED PHONE CALL TO BE RESCUED, THINK ABOUT THE RESCUE/RECOVERY TEAMS WHO WILL RESCUE YOU IF YOU ARE INJURED OR RECOVER YOUR REMAINS IF YOU DO NOT SURVIVE. 4. SANDY IS AN EXTREMELY DANGEROUS STORM. THERE WILL BE MAJOR PROPERTY DAMAGE, INJURIES ARE PROBABLY UNAVOIDABLE, BUT THE GOAL IS ZERO FATALITIES. 5. IF YOU THINK THE STORM IS OVER-HYPED AND EXAGGERATED, PLEASE ERR ON THE SIDE OF CAUTION. WE WISH EVERYONE IN HARMS WAY ALL THE BEST. STAY SAFE! $$ NWS MOUNT HOLLY, NJ
[snip – trolling, off topic (sea ice), typical snobbery of Günther Kirschbaum – Anthony]
My experience with Florida storms is the storm surge is consistent with the storm it once was. Not so much wind speed and the momentum as energy wanting a place to dissipate. In the Florida panhandle in tropical force winds, the once 3 Dennis was still sending waves 30 feet vertically where they just sliced into the dunes. Over and over for hours.
That’s a lot of force to go somewhere in Manhattan.
“Just a reminder, October hurricanes hitting the Eastern USA seaboard are not something new, and certainly not a result of “global warming”.”
I promise you that that fact will not stop them blaming it on a trace gas.
But this all depends on Sandy turning sharp left very soon now.
Check out this great animated shot of Sandy from GOES-14 in ‘rapid-scan’ mode:
http://rammb.cira.colostate.edu/templates/loop_directory.asp?data_folder=dev/lindsey/loops/goes14&image_width=1020&image_height=720&number_of_images_to_display=100
Courtesy of Dr. Maue’s Twitter feed.
I checked with friends on Long Island and they are staying in place, after having protected everything they can and laying in supplies for a week without power, water, and telephone. They live in the center of the island, so flooding is not as much of a concern for them. They do assume that some rain will blow in around the windows, though.
Catastrophic sea level rise?
Sorry to make light of a dangerous storm. We know what’s coming in thanks to Joe Bastardi and weatherbell. They have been telling us that this will be a multi billion dollar storm. Joe predicted a 940 at landfall. 5:00 update has it up to 952 but the models have it falling overnight. Yes it will be as bad as they have been saying.
Wind is beginning to build on Narragansett Bay and the surf is up on the outside – approaching double overhead in Newport as of noon. Fun to watch the weather…not so much fun to watch the consequences.
Stay safe.
Looking at that, I don’t know how anyone can think that our contribution to the climate amounts to anything more than pissing in the wind. It’s magnificent, glorious, and more frightening than anything I’ll see this Halloween.
Geoffrey Giraffe says:
But this all depends on Sandy turning sharp left very soon now.
That’s the part I’m wondering about. I’ve seen two predictions of that happening, and one of it just going along the initial track and out to sea. Would someone please be kind enough to explain, for those of us who are merely interested observes in the whole climate/weather thing, how this sharp left turn is supposed to happen?
Never ever take any chances in a storm!
After surviving a Cat 1 Hurricane in Cancun [ this was a warm weather/water storm], that was enough for me. Water blowing at 85 to 90 miles/hour gets everywhere; shorted out the condo electrical system, uprooted palm trees, and generally made a mess. In the dark with the howling winds was like Halloween on steroids.
Never want to do that again!!!
Would some kind soul please explain why a weak catagorie 1 hurricane is so much more dangerous when it hits New York than when it his Florida? I am having trouble with that — I figure I am missing something.
Yes. What are the mechanics of a left turn rather than arcing left out to open ocean? I know there’s a stationary front on-shore. And it appears that there is a pretty strong low mid-Atlantic due east of Cape Cod.
As TonyG and Geoffrey Giraffe note, the storm track is predicted to turn west in dramatic fashion in the next 24 hours. However, the 5 pm update of the model track ensemble from NOAA includes 5 model runs now predicting that the westerly turn will not occur. These model tracks are BAMS, BAMM, BAMD, XTRP and CLP5. Three of the models have the storm turning north and missing the major population centers on the east coast. Two of the models have Sandy continuing NE.
The winds will be dngerous but the storm surge will be the real killer. Best wishes from Queensland.
I sincerely hope everyone along the Atlantic seaboard is both prepared and prudent. I love looking at these wonderful satellite images but can’t get all those other images of Hazel our to my child’s mind. Some of us just never grew up I guess.
As blunt as this NWS warning is, it’s nothing compared to that given before Katrina hit land. For those interested, you can read the entire thing at http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/National_Weather_Service_bulletin_for_New_Orleans_region#Bulletin_text.
Here’s a sample for flavor:
…DEVASTATING DAMAGE EXPECTED…
.HURRICANE KATRINA…A MOST POWERFUL HURRICANE WITH UNPRECEDENTED
STRENGTH…RIVALING THE INTENSITY OF HURRICANE CAMILLE OF 1969.
MOST OF THE AREA WILL BE UNINHABITABLE FOR WEEKS…PERHAPS LONGER.
POWER OUTAGES WILL LAST FOR WEEKS…AS MOST POWER POLES WILL BE DOWN
AND TRANSFORMERS DESTROYED. WATER SHORTAGES WILL MAKE HUMAN SUFFERING
INCREDIBLE BY MODERN STANDARDS.
Still gives me chills to read it.
http://hint.fm/wind/
http://www.opc.ncep.noaa.gov/index.php
Wasn’t someone on Obama’s team boasting he did not miss handle a hurricane? blame them!
We had a little wind and some rain, but nothing to speak of. Late season grass seed embraced the moisture and is up 3 inches in three weeks. Thanks Sandy.
For those asking why a turn to the left, it is due to two factors:
1. A blocking High north of the storm.
2. The Jet Stream turns westward instead of eastward as it usually does.
High’s spin clockwise and when Sandy hits it, it will “steer” it westward where instead of the Jetstream running SW to NE it is running SE to NW. These two systems are expected to act like a vacuum sucking in Sandy in between them.
Anthony, do you as a long time meteorologist finding the coverage of this storm fishy? The phrase “mountain out of a molehill” comes to mind.
I thought the sharp left or westward turn was supposed to have something to do with the interaction of the two weather systems – Sandy and the strong cold front it’s combining with to make the “FrankenStorm.” Regardless, I hope everyone in harm’s way is either safely battened down or taking an extended vacation in another part of the country.
Anthony,
Is the ‘update’ about the candidly worded NWS statement on the Mt. Holly NWS website, or a different location? I couldn’t find it. Have done a few searches, and several ‘weather’ type website show it, yet I can’t find a 2:41pm update from Mt. Holly . . .
Please understand I am NOT trying to question the intensity and danger of the storm, and I agree with what is says – yet I wonder if it was done by someone to make it look like it came from the Mt. Holly NWS site . . ? both in a bit of fun, but also clearly a warning . I just wonder . . .
boballab says:
October 28, 2012 at 3:04 pm
Can you supply your sources for this info?