Below, you’ll find the latest update from NHC (as of this writing plus an animation from Dr. Ryan Maue that shows the details of the projected path and the meteorological variables as Sandy progresses.
BULLETIN HURRICANE SANDY INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY NUMBER 27A NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL182012 200 AM EDT MON OCT 29 2012 ...SANDY TURNING TOWARD THE NORTH...EXPECTED TO BRING LIFE-THREATENING STORM SURGE...COASTAL HURRICANE WINDS AND HEAVY APPALACHIAN SNOWS... SUMMARY OF 200 AM EDT...0600 UTC...INFORMATION ---------------------------------------------- LOCATION...35.2N 70.5W ABOUT 280 MI...455 KM E OF CAPE HATTERAS NORTH CAROLINA ABOUT 425 MI...685 KM SSE OF NEW YORK CITY MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...75 MPH...120 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...N OR 10 DEGREES AT 14 MPH...22 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...950 MB...28.05 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY... NONE. SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT... A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR... * NORTH OF SURF CITY TO DUCK NORTH CAROLINA * PAMLICO AND ALBEMARLE SOUNDS * BERMUDA IN ADDITION...HURRICANE-FORCE WINDS ARE EXPECTED ALONG PORTIONS OF THE COAST BETWEEN CHINCOTEAGUE VIRGINIA AND CHATHAM MASSACHUSETTS. THIS INCLUDES THE TIDAL POTOMAC FROM COBB ISLAND TO SMITH POINT... THE MIDDLE AND UPPER CHESAPEAKE BAY...DELAWARE BAY...AND THE COASTS OF THE NORTHERN DELMARVA PENINSULA...NEW JERSEY...THE NEW YORK CITY AREA...LONG ISLAND...CONNECTICUT...AND RHODE ISLAND. TROPICAL-STORM-FORCE WINDS ARE EXPECTED NORTH OF CHATHAM TO MERRIMACK RIVER MASSACHUSETTS...THE LOWER CHESAPEAKE BAY...AND SOUTH OF CHINCOTEAGUE TO DUCK NORTH CAROLINA...THE NORTHERN ENDPOINT OF THE TROPICAL STORM WARNING. OTHER COASTAL AND INLAND WATCHES AND WARNINGS ARE IN EFFECT FOR THESE AREAS. PLEASE SEE STATEMENTS FROM LOCAL NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORECAST OFFICES. FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA IN THE UNITED STATES...INCLUDING POSSIBLE INLAND WATCHES AND WARNINGS...PLEASE MONITOR PRODUCTS ISSUED BY YOUR LOCAL NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORECAST OFFICE. FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA OUTSIDE THE UNITED STATES...PLEASE MONITOR PRODUCTS ISSUED BY YOUR NATIONAL METEOROLOGICAL SERVICE. DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK ------------------------------ AT 200 AM EDT...0600 UTC...THE CENTER OF HURRICANE SANDY WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 35.2 NORTH...LONGITUDE 70.5 WEST. SANDY IS MOVING TOWARD THE NORTH NEAR 14 MPH...22 KM/H. A TURN TOWARD THE NORTHWEST IS EXPECTED TODAY...FOLLOWED BY A TURN TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST TONIGHT. ON THE FORECAST TRACK...THE CENTER OF SANDY WILL MOVE OVER THE COAST OF THE MID-ATLANTIC STATES THIS EVENING OR TONIGHT. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 75 MPH...120 KM/H...WITH HIGHER GUSTS. SANDY IS EXPECTED TO TRANSITION INTO A FRONTAL OR WINTERTIME LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM PRIOR TO LANDFALL. HOWEVER...THIS TRANSITION WILL NOT BE ACCOMPANIED BY A WEAKENING OF THE SYSTEM...AND IN FACT...A LITTLE STRENGTHENING IS POSSIBLE DURING THIS PROCESS. SANDY IS EXPECTED TO WEAKEN AFTER MOVING INLAND. HURRICANE FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 175 MILES... 280 KM...MAINLY TO THE SOUTHWEST OF THE CENTER...AND TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 520 MILES...835 KM. WEATHERFLOW STATIONS AT LEWES DELAWARE AND TUCKERTON NEW JERSEY REPORTED SUSTAINED WINDS OF 42 MPH AND GUSTS TO 52 MPH. AN AIR FORCE HURRICANE HUNTER AIRCRAFT RECENTLY REPORTED A MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE OF 950 MB...28.05 INCHES. HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- WIND...TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS...OR GALE FORCE WINDS...ARE ALREADY OCCURRING OVER COASTAL NORTH CAROLINA...SOUTHEASTERN VIRGINIA...THE DELMARVA PENINSULA AND COASTAL NEW JERSEY. GALE FORCE WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO ARRIVE ALONG OTHER PORTIONS OF THE MID-ATLANTIC COAST...LONG ISLAND...AND SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND...LATER THIS MORNING. WINDS OF HURRICANE FORCE COULD REACH THE MID-ATLANTIC STATES...INCLUDING LONG ISLAND...LATER TODAY. WINDS AFFECTING THE UPPER FLOORS OF HIGH-RISE BUILDINGS WILL BE SIGNIFICANTLY STRONGER THAN THOSE NEAR GROUND LEVEL. STORM SURGE...THE COMBINATION OF AN EXTREMELY DANGEROUS STORM SURGE AND THE TIDE WILL CAUSE NORMALLY DRY AREAS NEAR THE COAST TO BE FLOODED BY RISING WATERS. THE WATER COULD REACH THE FOLLOWING DEPTHS ABOVE GROUND IF THE PEAK SURGE OCCURS AT THE TIME OF HIGH TIDE... NC NORTH OF SURF CITY INCLUDING PAMLICO/ALBEMARLE SOUNDS...4 TO 6 FT SE VA AND DELMARVA INCLUDING LOWER CHESAPEAKE BAY...2 TO 4 FT UPPER AND MIDDLE CHESAPEAKE BAY...1 TO 3 FT LONG ISLAND SOUND...RARITAN BAY...AND NEW YORK HARBOR...6 TO 11 FT ELSEWHERE FROM OCEAN CITY MD TO THE CT/RI BORDER...4 TO 8 FT CT/RI BORDER TO THE SOUTH SHORE OF CAPE COD INCLUDING BUZZARDS BAY AND NARRAGANSETT BAY...3 TO 6 FT CAPE COD TO THE MA/NH BORDER INCLUDING CAPE COD BAY...2 TO 4 FT MA/NH BORDER TO THE U. S./CANADA BORDER...1 TO 3 FT SURGE-RELATED FLOODING DEPENDS ON THE RELATIVE TIMING OF THE SURGE AND THE TIDAL CYCLE...AND CAN VARY GREATLY OVER SHORT DISTANCES. GIVEN THE LARGE WIND FIELD ASSOCIATED WITH SANDY...ELEVATED WATER LEVELS COULD SPAN MULTIPLE TIDE CYCLES RESULTING IN REPEATED AND EXTENDED PERIODS OF COASTAL AND BAYSIDE FLOODING. IN ADDITION... ELEVATED WATERS COULD OCCUR FAR REMOVED FROM THE CENTER OF SANDY. FURTHERMORE...THESE CONDITIONS WILL OCCUR REGARDLESS OF WHETHER SANDY IS A TROPICAL OR POST-TROPICAL CYCLONE. FOR INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA...PLEASE SEE PRODUCTS ISSUED BY YOUR LOCAL NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE OFFICE. RAINFALL...RAINFALL TOTALS OF 3 TO 6 INCHES ARE EXPECTED OVER FAR NORTHEASTERN NORTH CAROLINA WITH ISOLATED MAXIMUM TOTALS OF 8 INCHES POSSIBLE. RAINFALL AMOUNTS OF 4 TO 8 INCHES ARE EXPECTED OVER PORTIONS OF THE MID ATLANTIC STATES...INCLUDING THE DELMARVA PENINSULA...WITH ISOLATED MAXIMUM AMOUNTS OF 12 INCHES POSSIBLE. RAINFALL AMOUNTS OF 1 TO 3 INCHES WITH ISOLATED MAXIMUM AMOUNTS OF 5 INCHES ARE POSSIBLE FROM THE SOUTHERN TIER OF NEW YORK STATE NORTHEASTWARD THROUGH NEW ENGLAND. SNOWFALL...SNOW ACCUMULATIONS OF 2 TO 3 FEET ARE EXPECTED IN THE MOUNTAINS OF WEST VIRGINIA...WITH LOCALLY HIGHER TOTALS TONIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT. SNOWFALL OF 1 TO 2 FEET IS EXPECTED IN THE MOUNTAINS OF SOUTHWESTERN VIRGINIA TO THE KENTUCKY BORDER... WITH 12 TO 18 INCHES OF SNOW POSSIBLE IN THE MOUNTAINS NEAR THE NORTH CAROLINA/TENNESSEE BORDER AND IN THE MOUNTAINS OF WESTERN MARYLAND. SURF...DANGEROUS SURF CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE FROM FLORIDA THROUGH NEW ENGLAND FOR THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS.NEXT ADVISORY ------------- NEXT COMPLETE ADVISORY...500 AM EDT.
==============================================================================
Here is a forecast animation from Dr. Ryan Maue which depending on your browser, may or may not animate until you click on it. It is 8.8MB in size and may take a couple of minutes to load on slower connections.
It depicts wind speeds and pressure. Not the the center of pressure (the eye) in this model NCEP is forecast to landfall in central new Jersey and cross into Southern Pennsylvania, passing almost directly over Philadelphia.
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Foof, this should be called Hurricane Ben, for Benghazi, because the media wants to scream about it until election day so that they can ignore Benghazi. I reckon its projected path is as much a political calculation as any other. But I admit I’m no weatherman.
Dr Maue, and his weatherbell colleagues have been right on Sandy at every turn. The eye in this animation makes landfall before midnight tomorrow.
At the 10/28 11 PM forecast discussion the NHC states, “THE FORECAST TRACK BRINGS THE CENTER NEAR OVER THE COAST OF THE MID-ATLANTIC STATES IN ABOUT 30 HOURS…
AND IT SHOULD BE NOTED THAT SOME OF THE GUIDANCE HAS AN EARLIER
LANDFALL TIME THAN THE OFFICIAL FORECAST.”
That would be 05:00 Tuesday. Surely the forecast is more accurate than a 6 hours at this point. That’s the rough difference between high and low tide, or incoming and outgoing. If the peak hits my town tomorrow night at 8PM Monday there will be water filled wazoos in low lying areas. But if it happens 6 hours later, this is a wind event with much less coastal flooding.
WUWT?
From the above article:
BULLETIN
HURRICANE SANDY INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY NUMBER 27A
HURRICANE FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 175 MILES…
280 KM…MAINLY TO THE SOUTHWEST OF THE CENTER…AND TROPICAL STORM
FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 520 MILES…835 KM. WEATHERFLOW
STATIONS AT LEWES DELAWARE AND TUCKERTON NEW JERSEY REPORTED
SUSTAINED WINDS OF 42 MPH AND GUSTS TO 52 MPH.
=====
The report from the NWS for Lewes, DE does not match:
HumidityNA
Wind Speed N 16 G 30 mph
Barometer 29.42 in (996.2 mb)
Dewpoint NA
Visibility 8.00 mi
Wind Chill 51°F (11°C)
Last Update on 29 Oct 1:54 am EDT
————
Anyone know whats going on with the reports?
The NWS current conditions for Tuckerton, NJ:
Humidity 89%
Wind Speed N 24 G 31 mph
Barometer 29.46 in (997.4 mb)
Dewpoint 50°F (10°C)
Visibility 5.00 mi
Wind Chill 47°F (8°C)
Last Update on 29 Oct 1:54 am EDT
———
Consider with my post above.
WUWT
What is remarkable is how the storm is NOT being attributed to AGW. The absence of truth is not enough to explain the absence of the claim.
Sandy has almost no outflow, that is the storm isn’t breathing well. There is dry air to south. Center circulation looks discombobbled the last few hours.
Sandy is still tracking north. Hard to tell exactly where the center is now, but it may have just turned NNW just as the center spread out.
It will still be a surprise to many folks living on the water. I hope they moved furniture upstairs and parked their cars uptown. Still looking at a lot of rain.
Sandy is now a large nor’easter.
Out on the earthquake shaken Canadian West Coast I am hoping that this will be a non-event. Wind, a fair bit of rain, a bit of flooding…we all hope and pray that the Frankenstorm predictions turn out to be more than was called for. Meanwhile, hunker down and know the rest of us are rooting for you.
“stacyglen says:
October 29, 2012 at 12:15 am”
Depends where you look; http://thinkprogress.org/climate/2012/10/28/1101241/cnn-bans-term-frankenstorm-but-its-a-good-metaphor-for-warming-driven-monster-largest-hurricane-in-atlantic-history/?mobile=nc
Some are attributing part of the hurricane to climate change:
Global climate change has contributed to the higher sea surface and ocean temperatures, and a warmer and moister atmosphere, and its effects are in the range of 5 to 10%. Natural variability and weather has provided the perhaps optimal conditions of a hurricane running into extra-tropical conditions to make for a huge intense storm, enhanced by global warming influences.
http://www.sbs.com.au/news/article/1706035/Hurricane-Sandy-mixes-super-storm-conditions-with
eyesonu says:
October 28, 2012 at 11:53 pm
The NHC report tells you that the information is coming from WeatherFlow stations, a private company not a NWS site.
http://www.weatherflow.com/coastal-weather-networks/why-choose-a-weatherflow-mesonet/station-siting-2/
So the question is, is the information NHC put in the report what WeatherFlow told them or do they have direct feed. I live just down the coast near Ocean City Md and this is what the Airport has (A NWS site)
Wind 22mph, Gust 40 and pressure at 992 MB as of 2:53 AM. However the gusts appear to be higher than 40 since they are stronger than they were back at 9 pm when the NWS had them as 44 mph. I’m sitting 3 feet from a Patio door and the sound of the wind and rain hitting it gives a good indication.
“stacyglen says:
October 29, 2012 at 12:15 am”
Also here:
http://thinkprogress.org/climate/2012/10/26/1097391/climate-change-frankenstorm-beyond-strange-unprecedented-bizarre/
http://tidesandcurrents.noaa.gov/quicklook/data/SANDY.html
NOAA Tide gauges, wind speed, pressure etc quicklook for stations affected by Sandy
Appears to be 4+ foot storm surge beginning and winds as high as 50mph in some onshore areas
Al Gore-ultrawarmists at HuffPo know it’s Climate Change. Astonishingly, rather a lot of skeptic comments, at least for now.
Nathan Currier.Climate Reality Project; Classical Composer
“Climate Change Sandy Says to US, ‘Take That, Idiots!’ ”
http://www.huffingtonpost.com/nathan-currier/climate-change_b_2032363.html
No, but you are pathetic.
Watching some of the still active webcams from the hotels down on the Boardwalk in Ocean City MD, you can see that the waves have completely covered the beach and are now crashing on the concrete barrier separating the boardwalk from the beach. Here is a site that links to different webcams:
http://oceancitylive.com/
I’m waiting for it not to turn to the west, and then we will hear for months about how we just avoided the biggest global warming disaster ever.
But it does seem to have started its turn west and the main surge will be along the Jersey Shore , which from memory was mostly sand dunes. Checking on Google Earth, those sand dunes are barrier islands.
Not much fun for Atlantic City, but the barrier islands will protect the mainland from the worst of the surges.
stacyglen says:
October 29, 2012 at 12:15 am
Maybe not, but that won’t stop them from doing so later & using it as an “example”! Remember, the warmists rarely claim that this or that event are direct evidence of AGW, they just say that this is what they expect to see as a result of it! It’s the “No it isn’t, but yes it is, answer”. 🙂
Remember, this is a political storm. And it’s caused by global warming, er climate change, er climate disruption, er climate propaganda.
More extreme weather from a Lance Armstrong climate.
And a taste of the problems rapidly accelerating sea levels cause.
And for a bit of levity, we return to 2005, epsilon and zeta. xkcd
As a Brit I was just trying to out this into some sort of context. Those of us that remember the “Great Storm of 1987” might want to be reminded of the details. The pressure dropped to 959mb. Continuous wind sustained wind speed was 81mph with gusts up to 120mph. The highest gust recorded was 122mph.
The highest storm surge recorded in the UK was in 1953 – a 10 foot storm surge.
We are in central Maryland watching this come in slow motion. It doesn’t feel like a tropical event as it was in the high 50’s yesterday, will be in the low 50’s today and down to the high 40’s tomorrow. Sunday was a day of intermittent light rain although about 75 miles to the east on Maryland’s eastern shore there was a line of thunderstorms that sat over the same general area for about 12 hours where the cold air met up with the tropical air. They got ~2.5″ of rain. My daughter and her new husband were scheduled to leave on a honeymoon cruise to the Bahamas but as we were taking the bags of of the car at the cruise liner terminal, the trip was cancelled by the coast guard. They made a spur of the moment decision to head to the Canaan Valley in West Virginia where 2 feet of snow is expected over the next 2-3 days. (They made it there safely last night.) Will be interesting to see how long it takes them to get out.
I don’t want to appear insensitive since I wouldn’t want to be in this things path and it has already killed but the latest update has sustained winds of 85mph (11am GMT), isn’t that ‘just’ a catagory 1 hurricane?
I realise its probably going to accelerate and there is some unknowns due to its collisions with two other weather fronts but apart from the obvious George Clunie reference how did this become a super-storm in the eyes of the media?
The cynical among those commenting, obviously don’t live near a coast which gets occasionally hit by a big storm. Yes the media does play it up, but the force of a large storm is mind boggling.
Ike hit Houston, and we were all glad it wasn’t any worse. 18 months later they were still finding bodies, after the storm surge took out a number of small settlements that had survived other hurricanes.
The upper right quadrant of the storm is where the most damage will occur from winds. If the storm does turn left, then NYC will get the “benefit” of those winds and the water they drive. It won’t be pretty.
J. Philip Peterson says:
October 29, 2012 at 2:55 am
“Remember, this is a political storm. And it’s caused by global warming, er climate change, er climate disruption, er climate propaganda”
You forgot climate chaos.