From NASA’s PR engine:
NASA Sees Hurricane Sandy as the “Bride of Frankenstorm” Approaching U.S. East Coast
NASA’s TRMM satellite revealed Hurricane Sandy’s heavy rainfall and the storm is expected to couple with a powerful cold front and Arctic air to bring that heavy rainfall to the Mid-Atlantic and northeastern U.S. Some forecasters are calling this combination of weather factors “Frankenstorm” because of the close proximity to Halloween. However, because Sandy is a woman’s name, the storm could be considered a “bride of Frankenstorm.”
NASA satellites have provided forecasters at the National Hurricane Center with rainfall data, infrared, visible and other data on Sandy and will continue to do so. Dr. Marshall Shepherd who works with TRMM data provided an insight into the storm’s development.
NASA’s TRMM Satellite Sees Sandy Drench Jamaica and Eastern Cuba
The Tropical Rainfall Measuring Mission (TRMM) satellite had a partial view of hurricane Sandy on Oct. 25 at 1425 UTC (10:25 a.m. EDT) after it had passed over Cuba and moved into the Bahamas. An eye was hard to find but TRMM’s Microwave Imager (TMI) data showed that a large area of intense rainfall was occurring around Sandy’s center of circulation. Hal Pierce of NASA’s TRMM Team at NASA’s Goddard Space Flight Center in Greenbelt, Md. used a GOES-13 satellite image captured at the same time to fill in the part of the image not viewed by TRMM to create a total picture of the storm.
TRMM rainfall totals were tallied for the seven-day period from Oct. 18-25, 2012. The heaviest rainfall occurred over open ocean where totals were as high as 325 millimeters. Rainfall amounts as high as 250 millimeters were measured over eastern Cuba and some extreme southern areas of Hispaniola. Hurricane Sandy’s track with appropriate symbols is shown overlaid in white. Credit: SSAI/NASA, Hal Pierce
With its combination of passive microwave and active radar sensors, TRMM is ideally suited to measure rainfall from space. For increased coverage, TRMM can be used to calibrate rainfall estimates from other additional satellites. The TRMM-based, near-real time Multi-satellite Precipitation Analysis (TMPA) made at NASA Goddard can be used to rainfall over a wide portion of the globe. TMPA rainfall totals were tallied for the seven-day period from Oct. 18-25, 2012.The heaviest rainfall occurred over open ocean where totals were as high as 325 millimeters. Rainfall amounts as high as 250 millimeters were measured over eastern Cuba and some extreme southern areas of Hispaniola.
› View larger image On Oct. 25 at 1425 UTC (10:25 a.m. EDT), NASA’s TRMM satellite saw that rain associated with Hurricane Sandy storm’s center, was moderate (in green and blue) and falling at a rate of 20 to 40 mm per hour. The heaviest rainfall at the time of this image was falling over the Dominican Republic at more than 2 inches/50 mm per hour (red). Credit: SSAI/NASA, Hal Pierce
Hurricane Sandy passed over the islands of Jamaica and Cuba causing at least 21 deaths. Extensive flooding and other damage were reported near the capital city of Kingston and other areas of Jamaica.
National Hurricane Center Rainfall Expectations
The heavy rainfall potential is evident in the National Hurricane Center’s (NHC) forecast on Oct. 26. The NHC noted that Sandy is expected to produce total rainfall amounts of 6 to 12 inches across Haiti and the Dominican Republic with isolated maximum totals of 20 inches possible. Rainfall totals of 3 to 6 inches are expected over portions of the Bahamas with isolated maximum amounts of 12 inches possible. Rainfall totals of one to three inches are expected across the Florida Keys into southeastern and east-central Florida with isolated maximum amounts of six inches possible. Rainfall totals of 4 to 8 inches are possible over far eastern North Carolina.
Interview with Research Meteorologist Dr. Marshall Shepherd
Dr. Marshall Shepherd, University of Georgia Professor and Research Meteorologist has worked with TRMM satellite data since its launch in 1997. Dr. Shepherd provided his take on the storm event. “Models are coming into consensus on a landfall, if you will, in the DelMarVa area. Comparisons are being made to the Perfect Storm of 1991, but many folks won’t remember that. Storm will bring very strong winds (hurricane force) over a strong area. Remember the Derecho of June 29, 2012. Expand that to the entire Delaware/Maryland/Virginia and New York/New Jersey region.”
Shepherd said that the event will bring significant rains and inland freshwater flooding , that he said was often the deadliest threat from tropical systems. He also cited concerns about the storm surge and coastal flooding as full moon will mean elevated water levels/tides coupled with the storm-induced surge. Finally, he noted, there is likely to be heavy wet snow into the inland and higher elevations of the effected region. “Pay attention to the cone or area of influence rather than a specific track as the storm will affect an area not a point,” he said.
“Advances from NASA satellites, aircraft, and models are essential for ingest into the models, assessing storm locations and intensity, and testing future modeling techniques. It may not be obvious to many, but our warning and prediction capability does have traceability to the NASA program in numerous ways and I have been happy to play some small role as a former NASA scientist and current member of the NASA Precipitation Science Team and Earth Science Subcommittee of the NASA Advisory Council.”
Where is Sandy on Friday, Oct. 26?
A Hurricane Warning is in effect for the Northwestern Bahamas Except Andros Island. A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for the Central Bahamas, Florida East Coast from Ocean Reef to Flagler Beach, Lake Okeechobee and Andros Island in the northwestern Bahamas. A Tropical Storm Watch is in effect for Savannah River to Oregon Inlet North Carolina, Pamlico Sound, the Florida east coast from North of Flagler Beach to Fernandina Beach, the Florida Upper Keys from Ocean Reef to Craig Key, and Florida Bay.
On Friday, Oct. 26, at 8 a.m. EDT, Hurricane Sandy’s maximum sustained winds were near 80- mph (130 kph). Sandy is a category one hurricane on the Saffir-Simpson Hurricane wind scale. Some weakening is possible during the next day or so, according to the National Hurricane Center. It was centered near latitude 26.4 north and longitude 76.9 west. Sandy is moving northwest near 10 mph (17 kph) and is expected to turn north and then northeast on Oct. 27, while slowing down.
Storm surge is expected to be big factor as Sandy approaches the Mid-Atlantic coast. Very rough surf and high and dangerous waves are expected to be coupled with the full moon. The National Hurricane Center noted that the combination of a dangerous storm surge and the tide will cause normally dry areas near the coast to be flooded by rising waters. The water could reach the following depths above ground if the peak surge occurs at the time of high tide. Some storm surge forecasts include: 5 to 8 feet in the hurricane warning area in the Bahamas and one to three feet along the Florida coast in the warning areas on Oct. 26.
GOES-13 Satellite Shows Sandy and Powerful Cold Front
NOAA’s GOES-13 satellite monitors weather over the eastern U.S. and the Atlantic Ocean. In a visible image taken from NOAA’s GOES-13 satellite on Friday, Oct. 26 at 1415 UTC (10:15 a.m. EDT) Hurricane Sandy’s huge cloud extent of up to 2,000 miles extended into the Atlantic, while its center was over the Bahamas. At the same time a long line of clouds associated with a powerful cold front approaching the U.S. east coast stretched from the upper Midwest to the Gulf coast. The image was created by the NASA GOES Project at NASA Goddard.
“Bride of Frankenstorm”
Hurricane Sandy is expected to mix with a powerful cold front approaching the east coast, and cold Arctic Air mass, setting up for a powerful storm, a “Bride of Frankenstorm.”
The cold front stretching from the upper Midwest to the Gulf coast is moving eastward and is expected to temporarily push Sandy away from the coast. However, the front is expected to break down as it moves toward the coast, allowing Hurricane Sandy to come back toward the coast.
As happens when any storm becomes extra-tropical, Sandy will go from a warm to cold core center and the strongest winds spread out and the storm will expand. According to the National Hurricane Center, hurricane force winds extend outward up to 35 miles (55 km) from the center and tropical storm force winds extend outward up to 275 miles (445 km). The wind field of Sandy is expected to grow in size during the next couple of days. The storm’s circulation almost reaches 2,000 miles.
Although landfall is expected in southeastern Delaware early Tuesday morning as a hurricane, the Mid-Atlantic is expected to start feeling the storm’s effect starting Sunday, Oct. 28.
For updates on Hurricane Sandy’s forecast, go to the National Hurricane Center: www.nhc.noaa.gov
For the GOES-R and JPSS National Centers Perspective Blog: http://goesrnatcentperspective.wordpress.com/2012/10/25/what-to-do-with-sandy-pt-ii/
Text credit: Rob Gutro/Hal Pierce/Marshall Shepherd
NASA’s Goddard Space Flight Center, Greenbelt, Md.
What are rules, regulations (and tradition) in case this were to significantly affect Election Day?
ps in the recent past, everything that has been pumped up so greatly has been a dud, Katrina aside perhaps
I worked as a poll watcher in South Carolina and endured Hurricane Hugo in September, 1989 non-coincidentally, and recall no particular on point statute. But I’ll rummage around and report back.
I worked as a poll watcher in South Carolina and endured Hurricane Hugo in September, 1989 non-coincidentally, and recall no particular on point statute. But I’ll rummage around and report back.
Sandy has eaten a chunk of dry air over the past 24 hrs.
I have reviewed South Carolina Code of Laws, Title VII, Elections, Chapter 13, Conduct of Elections and found no existing on point statute.
Unless it begins to “tighten up”, I’ve seen many storms like it come through Chicago.
Of course, not with its tropical moisture content.
It seems the predicted storm tracks, are getting further from the coast ?
It is getting harder to believe in that hard left turn ??
http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/graphics_at3.shtml?5-daynl#contents
Maybe New York ???
doughuffman,
Maybe you should move to North Carolina, people seem to live just about forever there:
http://silencedogood2010.wordpress.com/2012/10/20/massive-voter-fraud-in-nc/
Sandy Koufax says “Girl’s name what?”
What are the blue areas in the Bahamas that show up on sat pics? Very shallow water? Corral?
“Some forecasters are calling this combination of weather factors “Frankenstorm” because of the close proximity to Halloween.”
Or is it an attempt to hype up and subconsciously tie a storm near election day to Frankenstein as if manmade from global warming, with anti-technology and anti-mankind bias?
Judged from past experience on other matters (such as Hansen’s GISS), the NOAA and the terrestrial climate observations part of NASA has gotten infiltrated in recent decades by partisan environmentalist ideologues, who are largely the very opposite of what the spaceflight part of NASA has stood for at its best.
With that said, the vast bulk of the “Frankenstorm” references come from the news media with its usual bias and agenda, not so much from government sites in this particular case.
“Sandy is a woman’s name”.
In America, perhaps. It’s also been known to be applied to numerous hairy Scots.
“Sandy” can be male or female.
You just knew this would happen. An article in Grist claims this storm is “God’s revenge for the refusal of the U.S. government to take action on the climate crisis.”
http://grist.org/article/frankenstorm-gods-latest-warning/
It even quotes an unnamed NWS meteorologist as stating: “I’ve never seen anything like this and I’m at a loss for expletives to describe what this storm could do.”
Unbelievable! Perhaps he should study Hurricane Hazel in 1954 or the Long Island Hurricane in 1938 that produced a one minute wind speed of 130 mph with gusts to 180 mph in Rhode Island.
A “consensus” on where the landfall will be, huh? I skeptically assert that it is more likely to follow the usual path eastwards into the Atlantic, and head for a rendezvous with Castle Frankenstein in Germany.
I was asking about Sandy on the first thread Anthony posted the other day. Early, I was hearing conflicting reports. The next day the locals were really talking up the strength of the cold front coming through. It seemed to me that the cold front might bump Sandy far enough off the coast that the storm would be not all that terrific.
That satellite image above of the front and the storm is awesome! The front is very strong looking and the storm seems disorganized. I’m putting my 25-cents on the cold front. Still we’ll just have to wait and see.
“Comparisons are being made to the Perfect Storm of 1991, but many folks won’t remember that.” I remember that storm well. I had modest wind and decent rain where I live W of Boston. That was a nor’easter, plain and simple. It hung around for a day or two before it ingested Grace and flung that moisture into New England. Then it meandered over some warmer waters and became a bit tropical. But those are really just details. It was a nor’easter.
This storm is not a nor’easter although it is expected to morph into one (or more precisely it will be absorbed by a rapidly developing nor’easter). I think it will do that off the coast like most nor’easters so I would expect that it will get close to NJ, then stall for a while as it transitions, then take off into the ocean or up into New England. I base that on all the models trending east. That will be bad enough with prolonged coastal flooding but would not have much inland impact.
cjames, it will make him look (expletive) stupid.
Will forecasters be faced with an “Italian dilemma?” Damned if you play it down, or damned if you overstate the impact.
Disputin says:
October 26, 2012 at 4:26 pm
“Sandy is a woman’s name”.
In America, perhaps. It’s also been known to be applied to numerous hairy Scots.
================================
I agree. My Glasgow-native mother-in-law has quite the moustache ;o)
(I’m safe, ya’ll. She doesn’t read WUWT.)
This situation is weather, not climate change. It is a rare confluence of events. Living in Florida through 5 recent hurricanes, two of which were direct local hits (yes Virginia, a locally spawned tornado did go between our two buildings shattering cat 5 storm proof glass set into 1/4 inch thick aluminum frames that were ripped off their 4 inch deep concrete set anchors), and happening to have been in Chicago yesterday when the cold front passed through and the temperature dropped from 79F to 40F in less than two hours, I am concerned.
Better that the dangers be overplayed ( not likely given the facts) than there be much worse problems than Irene wrought last year.
This thing could be very bad, no matter whether Sandy is a male or female name. But has nothing to do with CAGW. Folks raise the level of your comments to something worthy of this important site.
My youngest sister is often called and uses the name Sandy (it’s officially Sandra), though for the first few years of her life I thought her name was Buba. If that’s not confusing enough, my twin brothers name is Dana.
Interesting graphic on landfall hurricanes and precipitation here: http://icons.wxug.com/hurricane/2012/heavyprecip_hurricanes.png
Figure 3. Time series of the 15-yr running average (plotted at the end point of the 15-yr blocks) of the tropical cyclone Heavy Precipitation Index (red) and the associated 15-yr total of U.S. landfalling hurricanes from Atlantic HURDAT hurricane data base, from 1895 – 2008 (blue). Note the steep rise in heavy precipitation events from tropical cyclones over the past 20 years, which has not been accompanied by a corresponding increase in landfalling hurricanes. Image credit: Kunkel et al., 2010, Geophysical Research Letters.
Great. A hurricane PREDICTED to be Category 1 (74 mph winds) when it reaches shore is big news. The standard Saffir-Simpson Hurricane Scale says “Minimal damage” and “approximately 4 ft. storm surge”. Of course, it could be worse or better, we’ll see. It could interfere with voting too.
How Sandy compares to other weather events
Farnell isn’t expecting the same outcome as 1954’s Hurricane Hazel, which left 81 dead and almost 2,000 families homeless as winds hit 124 kilometres per hour and rains flooded low-lying areas of southern Ontario after crossing the Caribbean and eastern U.S. However, he does note that both Sandy’s track and the interaction with a strong cold front is similar to that of Hazel.
http://www.globaltvedmonton.com/hurricane+watch/6442741824/story.html
Sandy Koufax – Baseball player
Sandy Duncan – Female actress
I wonder if they’re calling it a Frankenstorm with the insinuation that it’s man made.