After battling the “dry” tropical air along its route from Haiti, Cuba, Florida, to Louisiana, Isaac has finally become a hurricane with the required 64+ knots 1-minute sustained near-surface winds. Numerical models finally expressed some certainty on a Louisiana coastal landfall, but diverged significantly on intensity. There is also some question about the ability of Isaac to penetrate far inland away from the frictionally convergent swamps. A major flood event is underway.
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http://wattsupwiththat.com/reference-pages/tropical-cyclone/
They say three moves is as good as a fire. I submit the same can be levied (no pun intended) at a hurricane, particularly those heading to New Orleans.
It will arrive as a tropical storm. Even if it’s a cat 1 it will be ho-hum. It is no Katrina, that’s for sure. Too much hype.
J. Philip Peterson,
Even as a strong tropical storm or cat 1, the large extent with moderately strong inward winds, and long extensive heavy rain could result in huge problems. Probably not like Katrina, but the main problem with Katrina was a levy breach, not rain or wind. The long exposure and direction could produce very large storm surge, and numbers like 1 to 1.5 feet of rain could produce serious flooding in low areas.
My preference is to also show the initial track as a comparison of “computer modeling” accuracy … Remember, the model projections that our “climate experts” forecast to run right up the west coast of FL. 8<)
Actually, I am more interested in Typhoon Bolaven right now. My wife is Korean, and we’ve been watching the news on Korean TV (YTN). There seems to be a lot of conflicting information about the strength, and the expected effect on South Korea. I read one news item on the internet saying it’s supposed to come ashore near PyongYang (North Korea). If so, that’ll be a double whammy after the flooding North Korea had earlier this summer.
So I hear that the soil along the coast is quite wet from earlier weather and they worry about the wind and more water impacting power lines and such. Can anyone reveal what the estimated landfall times will correlate with as far as tides are concerned?
I would love to see a ranking of how the different models have performed on path accuracy. Is there any sites that have ranked the different models?
I know I’m preaching to the choir, but a storm in the Gulf is a thing.
Get ready.
At Hurricane (?) Isaac
Judith Curry describes a new forecast system that
See CFAN’s Forecast of 08/23/2012 for Isaac, showing landfall just east of New Orleans.
Curry compares the accuracy of CFAN vs the national hurricane forecast for Isaac.
Hurricane (?) Isaac
CFan Climate Forecast Applications Network
NO is in the 10-ring again. I wonder if evac has begun or if they’re going to wait a couple weeks and blame the government, again.
Well at least we can be assured that this time the swimming pool walls are less likely to leak (or break), so whatever water Isaac storm dumps in New Orleans (in not on), will remain there for a while. Building cities underwater is a French / Maldivian failed idea.
Stay safe down there.
Isaac Cline, head of the Weather Office in Galveston in 1905, would be surprised to be named as a Hurricane heading towards New Orleans in 2012: he ended up in New Orleans, as an artist, painting oils, after things washed out in Galveston, so to speak.
Here is a stupid question. As pointed out in a previous post about the reduced dead zone in the Gulf due to reduced Mississippi outflow resulting from the drought conditions upstream, does this mean that the Gulf is more saline making it more difficult for Isaac to draw energy in the form of water vapour thereby reducing the probability of significant growth in its trip across the Gulf?
The storm isn’t the threat, this time, the sinkhole into the salt cavern full of toxic waste next to the two caverns with 3.1 million barrels of butane and propane is:
http://enenews.com/governor-says-more-boom-being-deployed-in-sinkhole-winds-up-to-100-mph-expected-all-monitors-within-community-being-removed-texas-brine-in-hurricane-mode
http://enenews.com/latest-forecast-isaac-tracking-toward-sinkhole-now-under-hurricane-warning-storm-to-sit-over-area-for-days-map
3.1M bbl of liquified gas released would explode, they estimate, at 100 X Hiroshima. Oddly, the sinkhole into Texas Brine’s toxic waste dump next to them is on the SIDE of the dome, not the top.
The huge rainstorms dumping tons of water onto the sinkhole can’t be good. Gas is already bubbling waterways across the parish.
RACookPE1978 says:
August 27, 2012 at 7:11 pm
My preference is to also show the initial track as a comparison of “computer modeling” accuracy … Remember, the model projections that our “climate experts”
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The model all seem to show that in the next day or so it is likely to be somewhere close to where it is now. I could have told you that without a model. After that the models show that it will likely be somewhere else. Where exactly they aren’t sure, but kind somewhere close to where it is generally heading now, I could have told you that also.
According to Nightline Isaac pounded the coast of Florida, as some who lives on the coast of Florida, yes the gulf coast, I really don’t think it was that much of a pounding. Debbie, which got far less press did a lot more pounding.
george e smith says:
August 27, 2012 at 8:22 pm
Well at least we can be assured that this time the swimming pool walls are less likely to leak (or break), so whatever water Isaac storm dumps in New Orleans (in not on), will remain there for a while. Building cities underwater is a French / Maldivian failed idea.
Stay safe down there.
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I think we built a storm surge barrier since the last time ?
Looks like it may get tested soon ?
Dp, you have no idea what you are talking about, [snip -policy] In 2005, we had already evacuated once, for Hurricane David, which of course you don’t remember. It costs a lot of money to evacuate and plenty of people couldn’t afford it a second time when Katrina came. And if you don’t think the government left the people of New Orleans to rot in August 2005, then you were living on another planet. We know how to handle hurricanes here. Quit running your mouth off, [snip]
Some have mentioned an upper air low over the Yucatan as the reason Isaac hasn’t yet exploded. I have been focused on the rainband left behind over Florida, which seems to have moved east and has a life of it’s own, (Name it!) Whatever the reason, the longer Isaac remains weak, the better off we are. A lot of our oil and refinery output can be screwed up if Isaac bombs out, our economy doesn’t need that sort of uppercut, New Orleans is still an important port, and Obama has made certain coal will not be a strong back-up, if oil gets hard hit.
Lacking any better reason, I’d say the reason Isaac has remained weak is due to sub-sub-sub-atomic particals. These particals are created by several million small objects you can’t see from outer space, despite the awesome pictures we marvel over. What are these small objects? They are little people praying.
The trees in the Ozark Mountains definitely need the soaking, hope like all heck they get a good drink. Looking at what happened along near the Red River at Oklahoma & Texas border from last year nearly half of the dry, totally brown trees likely will not emerge growth next spring. Could be a huge loss.
Northeast Oklahoma is so dry, they could sure use some, but the chances don’t look good. Travelling thru recently, I felt so sorry for the cattle huddled underneath half brown trees for shade. All the other vegetation is cooked. Hay price is skyrocketing.
Maybe some barges on the Mississippi can get unstuck and the rest can load up before we lose a lot of corn and beans that move by barge. Trains can only add so much, they are at capacity. It would take 7,000 trucks to take up the slack. We don’t have 7,000 trucks just sitting idle. They’re doing stuff. Lots of fuel and coal moves along this trade route to the heartland. With only a 9 ft deep channel which has also been narrowed the only thing to do is cut the numbers and lower the tonnage.
I’m about 120 miles West of New Orleans and have been through about 50 of these.
I still find them an exciting display of the power of nature. Like the Grand Canyon or Niagara Falls, you really have to be there to understand the majesty. No photo or video can capture this.
Right now we have a nice dry Northerly breeze and the day has been pleasant. I expect some of this dry air will get sucked in and “lean the mixture” for this particular heat engine but we are preparing in case of a jog to the West. We always prepare regardless of the predictions or our expectations.
Hope no one gets hurt, but it’s good to be reminded occasionally of things which are greater than ourselves.
Unlike climate models, I do find hurricane and weather models to be useful. They are useful for planning in the short term, and also a good lesson on why models fail long term tests.
How many times are we going to rebuild a city that is in a hurricane zone and is below sea level?
Sorry if that is a bit cold.
Best of luck to everyone down that way. Get the hell out of dodge.
They aren’t going to evacuate New Orleans for this storm. No way.