I called the media support line for this press release issues today, to ask a couple of questions, here are the answers:
1. Q: Besides the heat wave, what other factors are contributing? A: “A Natural Gas plant of 775 megawatts went offline last night. The San Onofre nuclear plant remains offline with no restart scheduled.”
2. Q: Where is wind power in all of this, is it performing? A: “Well as you know, wind has to blow for wind power to be effective. ”
The graph from CAISO tells the story, wind power has tumbled when it is most needed:
Of course, renewables are a drop in the bucket compared to the total demand seen here.
California ISO Declares Flex-Alert Statewide
With a major heat wave bearing down on California, the ISO is declaring a Flex Alert tomorrow through August 12.
Consumers are urged to reduce their energy use during the afternoon when air conditioners drive consumption. Find Flex Alert tips at www.caiso.com
Electricity conservation today, August 9, would also be helpful during the afternoon peak between 11:00 a.m. and 6 p.m.
Today’s Forecast peak demand: 47,125 megawatts
24-Hour Ahead Outlook for Friday, Aug 10: Flex Alert
High temperatures are forecast statewide. Energy demand is expected to be high and consumers are urged to reduce energy usage between 11:00 a.m. and 6:00 p.m.
Forecast peak demand: 46,800 megawatts
48-Hour Ahead Outlook for Saturday, Aug 11: Flex Alert
The heat wave continues through the weekend. The California ISO is urging reduced energy usage between 11:00 a.m. and 6:00 p.m. on Saturday
Forecast peak demand: 43,000 megawatt
72-Hour Ahead Outlook for Sunday, Aug 12: Flex Alert
Temperatures will continue to be hot. Conservation is helpful between noon – 6 p.m.
Forecast peak demand: 43,000 megawatt
Go to www.caiso.com and click “Notify me” to sign up for Flex Alerts and other updates. Follow real time grid conditions at http://www.caiso.com/Pages/TodaysOutlook.aspx.
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Welcome to the third world. h/t to Roger Sowell.
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It’s all the fault of those one-percenters at Enron.
I wonder what the greenies will do when instability in the grid results in hundreds of thousands buying home generators.
Great energy policy planning by California. Clearly what they need is more windmills.
Commiefornia to peasants: “Were reducing the amount of power your going to have and will continue to reduce it… for you anyway.”
Peasants: “We’ll just use the same amount and if it breaks its commiefornia’s fault.”
Commiefornia to peasants: “O you will use less power and those that don’t… well we know who you are and you WILL BE punished…. and don’t even bother asking that we install more power this is your fault peasants now you must pay your fair share.”
Wind here in Mojave is about 10 knots, temp 40.8 C (105 F). But with dewpoint of 7 C, at least it’s a dry heat…
There is a large wind farm between Shelby and Cut Bank Montana. That power is sold to San Diego. The blades are turning as I write.
Patrick says:
August 9, 2012 at 4:23 pm
Perhaps it’s the home generator manufacturers behind it all!
😀
DaveE.
😉
This should encourage quite a few in the “undecided” bracket to give a thumbs down to Green policy – I hope!
California obviously didn’t do their homework on how this has already happened in Denmark with wind power.
Good post. As every one here knows, I support alternatives to fossil fuels for the long term. I have been sharing the recent CAISO web pages with some of my even more boosterish friends as displaying the evidence that California can not achieve its Renewable Portfolio Standard on the schedule required by AB32, at least not without a dramatic reduction in GDP.
The graphs clearly display a fact that some one here addressed my attention to as a fatal flaw in solar power: solar power production starts to fall off while electricity consumption is still rising toward its peak. For a lot of purposes, such as irrigating crops and air conditioning homes and supermarkets, that is not a fatal flaw, though it is a flaw for many other purposes.
Another detail is clearly presented in the full graph: peak use was less than the day-ahead peak forecast use; most likely that is because people responded to the Flex Alert, and most likely that represented businesses reducing their work or closing early. Businesses enjoy a lower rate if they agree in advance to shut down when asked to do so by CAISO. To some degree, Californians sacrifice their commercial output to maintain their comfy homes and spas, though that may be changing with demand-weighted billing.
Simply amassing. The “Planning Commission” in San Diego just denied a natural gas peak power plant next to a garbage dump next to all existing power lines and the next week approved a development for 1,000 housing units which equals 2 to 3 thousand more people all within a 5 mile area. There is no plan!
Last note: peak demand was about 44,000 megawatts. At peak demand, the renewables were generating 2900 megawatts, or about 6.6%. Ignore the imaginary claim of precision in the first decimal, the key here being “about”. When wind power peaks and demand bottoms, the contribution of renewables is around 12%. So California is about 1/3 of the way toward the goal of 30% by 2020. Hopefully, we’ll have another chance, before its too late, to repeal AB32.
I believe it was last year when Texas had a period of heat occasioned by a stationary high.
Stationary highs mean no wind – their windmills were operating at around 5 to 10% of their normal output levels, which is roughly 25 to 30% of nameplate capacity. Note that when a new solar or windfarm is inaugurated, it is always characterized by its nameplate capacity, a totally misleading
number – a solar farm with a nameplate capacity of 570MW, is about the equivalent of an SMR
of roughly 180 MWe. By the way, a survey of 30 studies of carbon emissions per GWhr of power produced, from govts, universities and think tanks around the world, showed solar to produce more than twice as much CO2 emissions as nuclear and almost half as much as natural gas.
A timely post I see, I can now take this out of Tips and Notes and onto this thread.
A few winters back Scotland’s windpower failed when it was needed most. They were forced to buy in filthy, dangerous, toxic nuclear energy from France.
cwoop: They do about 52,000 megawatts in Oregon and Washington. Most of it goes to California.
Can it really be most? The CAISO does not show that much.
Simple part solution, turn off all of those airconditioners in the government bureaucracy … let them show solidarity and sweat it out with the common man.
David A. Evans says:
August 9, 2012 at 4:59 pm
Enron Wind is now GE Ecomagination. Still worse than useless for us, but great for government propaganda and scoring brownie points for GE with Obama’s Administration.
24 hours in Ca.
Three stable renewable-power sources; Geothermal, Small Hydro and Biomass producing a total power of circa 1500 Mw.
Two fluctuating power-technologies (wind and solar) that together cumulatively produce a maximum of 1900 Mw at 1 a.m. to a minimum of roughly 6-700 Mw at 8 am.
Let’s call that 1500 + (1900+700)/2 Mw average capacity -> 2800 Mw ranging from 3400 Mw to 2200 Mw throughout the course of a day (+/- 21% of mean).
That’s a pretty wide range to keep on top of but, luckily, using Anthony’s link to CAISO this is a small fraction of ‘current’ demand of roughly 36000 Mw with a capacity of 50000 Mw at hand comprising some 47000 Mw of non-renewable power ( 94% ).
If we take the used capacity as non-renewables/ total demand as (36000-2800)/36000 we still get a creditable 92% as coming from ‘non-green approved’ sources.
This is all good news, so far, for Ca residents and manufacturers alike but there’s bad news looming.
Double the amount of wind and solar, reduce current stable-baseload generators to comply with new green-regulations and we get an increasing double-whammy that not only boosts the price of energy for producers and consumers but makes it less reliable!
To get to the demented targets of some e.g. 80% via renewables (wind, solar but very little else) does not require a doubling from the current 5-6% or so but a redouble to 10-12%, followed by a further redouble to 20-25% and then with reckless abandon to an ‘all-in’, shirt-betting scenario.
Madness. Total madness. Verily, the lunatics are now clad in white coats!!!!
Let them eat cake.
When we lived in South Australia, with its California-like mediterranean climate, we didn’t have A/C, nor did most people. Since the ferociously hot weather almost always coincided with low humidity, everyone used fans; in extreme cases they’d sleep downstairs temporarily.
This entire effort is such a fraud. One has to wonder if any consideration was given to the power supply that has to be supplied in order to save lives aka hospitals, surgeries, old age homes, refrigeration on a massive scale etc. It was refrigeration that allowed us all to have food when needed and stored safely, as we all already know.
Their insane efforts to try and effect the weather with this is akin to blowing in a storm, it is way past ludicrous and meanwhile, people will die, just so they can feel good about themselves. They have chosen to follow a religion that is based on misinformation and downright lies. It truly is incomprehensible.
Please show the base load capacity and daily output (coal and natural gas) that covers their rears every 24 hour cycle. In graph form; more please and thank you.
Doesn’t CA’s solar power run on Moonbeams?
In the olden days they stalled nuclear and banned coal plants. In more civilized modern times they delayed and and stalled most solar farm projects. And in the new normal they blame heat waves on global warming while funding studies of rising sea level. Not to worry, they have now turned attention to stalling housing developments and forcing the population into small stacked units where permitted of course. They might want to go look for hidden power supplies to go with their hidden park funds.