UAH global temperature anomaly goes negative

UAH Global Temperature Update for January 2012: -0.09 deg. C

By Dr. Roy Spencer

PERSONAL NOTE: I’ve been unavailable for a while…my oldest daughter was in a bad car accident, will be OK eventually, but won’t walk for about 3 months. So, I might not be answering queries.

The global average lower tropospheric temperature anomaly for January, 2012 took a precipitous plunge, not totally unexpected for a La Nina January (click on the image for the full-size version):

The 3rd order polynomial fit to the data (courtesy of Excel) is for entertainment purposes only, and should not be construed as having any predictive value whatsoever.

Here are the monthly stats:

YR MON GLOBAL NH SH TROPICS
2011 1 -0.010 -0.055 +0.036 -0.372
2011 2 -0.020 -0.042 +0.002 -0.348
2011 3 -0.101 -0.073 -0.128 -0.342
2011 4 +0.117 +0.195 +0.039 -0.229
2011 5 +0.133 +0.145 +0.121 -0.043
2011 6 +0.315 +0.379 +0.250 +0.233
2011 7 +0.374 +0.344 +0.404 +0.204
2011 8 +0.327 +0.321 +0.332 +0.155
2011 9 +0.289 +0.304 +0.274 +0.178
2011 10 +0.116 +0.169 +0.062 -0.054
2011 11 +0.123 +0.075 +0.170 +0.024
2011 12 +0.126 +0.197 +0.055 +0.041
2012 01 -0.093 -0.059 -0.127 -0.138

Progress continues on Version 6 of our global temperature dataset. You can anticipate a little cooler anomalies than recently reported, maybe by a few hundredths of a degree, due to a small warming drift we have identified in one of the satellites carrying the AMSU instruments.

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112 thoughts on “UAH global temperature anomaly goes negative

  1. I have a daughter. I am most grateful that she is is healthy. I wish your daughter a speedy and uneventful recovery!

  2. As Dr. Spencer observes, this not unexpected. But if the trend continues, we’ll soon be in an ice age. Even worse, if the trend accelerates, we’ll be at absolute zero by the end of the year.

    OMG, the Mayans were right!

  3. Speedy recovery to your daughter!

    I’m entertained by the 3rd order polynomial fit…It’ll be fun to see if it predicts the future better than the “climate models.”

  4. Wish your daughter recover soon.

    I think before cycle 24 reach its peak, we will still see bumping of the temperature.

  5. Prayers for your daughter, and I’ve put her and your family on a list that gets thousands of sincere, focused folks around the world praying for you all, too. Thank you for your work.

  6. Dr Spencer, I am sorry to hear that your daughter has had a very serious accident. It will be a tough time ahead…. but if my own sister could recover from being in a coma, and she had a broken leg, and my son can somewhat recover from breaking both ankles, and my daughter-in-law can be upbeat after losing her leg…. I am hoping that your daughter will have a brilliant recovery!!

  7. “Steve M. from TN says:
    February 2, 2012 at 11:37 am

    I’m entertained by the 3rd order polynomial fit…It’ll be fun to see if it predicts the future better than the “climate models.””

    We really will be doomed if it does. As a 3rd order polynomial that has already had a minimum and then a maximum it can only keep going down.

  8. I pray for her quick recovery and no complications due to the hospital stay! A harrowing time to deal with, for any family…

  9. Sounds like broken leg(s) or pelvis.

    I’ve known 3 people “been there/done that”. Painful. Tedious…but completely recoverable (particularily at her age, suspect < 30?) One of the three I know, no seat belt. Thrown out…would have been OK (cuts, bruises) except the darn car climbed the embankment, turned, came back and ran over his legs.

    THAT was "traction" for like 5 weeks! That was 30 years ago, HE'S FINE NOW!

    So…that's meant to say, "Chin up Roy!" Prayers and blessings on your daughter.

  10. Best wishes to your family. You never will be able to not worry about your kids no matter how old you are. I know how my parents felt now.

  11. First, sorry to hear about your daughter. Prayers wiil be said.

    Second – I’m waiting for that running average to drop below “zero” (not only here, but on all the major datasets). After all the times we’ve been told that we’ll continue to see unstoppable rise in temps, waiting to hear the screaming if they actually drop below their “zero” point will be priceless.

    Of course we have to remember that the “zero” point is only a remnant of the chosen reference period, and that it’s the trend that really matters.

    Let’s see if they’ll accept a FALLING trend.

  12. Roy,
    You have our thoughts and prayers for your daughter’s recovery.

    Jack Morrow,
    As my oldest turned 22 and my other two are 17 and 14, I have come to the realization of how true your statement is. I think back over two decades ago now at just how momentus our decision was to start a family. I guess that is a project you can start but never finish. That’s a good thing.

  13. 3rd Order Polynomial? I know I know — entertainment value only. But that sure as heck looks line a sine wave. Time and data will tell.

  14. Dr. Spencer, our thoughts are with you.
    Thankks for the update Bob.
    And for those interested, the -2 sub surface temperature anomalies in the east central equatorial pacific have expanded and risen towards the surface by around 60 meters in the last month.

    At Jan 2nd, 140 deg W, the -2 anomalies were about 80 meters below the sea surface.
    Today they are only 20 meters below and rising. Early days but is a fully fledged super la nina on the cards? I think at this point we can say yes, it could redevelop into record breaking monster.
    What do you think Bob Tisdale? 50:50?

  15. I too want to thank you Roy for your dedication to science and offer prayers for a speedy and full recovery for your daughter.

    As for the current global temperature anomaly, I predict 2 things:

    (1) RSS will report a similar drop
    (2) The MSM will completely ignore it

    Also, how will this affect Hansens 0.58 W/m^2 energy imbalance calculation?? Oh no!! And he JUST had the paper published too…

  16. Terribly sorry to hear about your daughter’s accident. Wishing her the quickest recovery. And wishing you some comfort from what must be great worry as a father.

  17. Thank you Dr Spencer, may I also extend my best wishes for your daughter to have a speedy recovery.
    —————————————————
    X Anomaly says:
    February 2, 2012 at 1:06 pm

    “And for those interested, the -2 sub surface temperature anomalies in the east central equatorial pacific have expanded and risen towards the surface by around 60 meters in the last month.

    At Jan 2nd, 140 deg W, the -2 anomalies were about 80 meters below the sea surface.
    Today they are only 20 meters below and rising.”

    Do you have a reference or link to the above please?
    TIA

  18. Well wishes for your daughter, and please, family first! We only have such a short time in this world, better to spend it with loved ones supporting them, than fighting the nasty fight of Computer Assisted Global Warming.

    Cheers to you Dr S!

  19. Roy
    I will remember your daughter and your family in my prayers. May your daughter have a full recovery.

    Although you say they long-term trend curve has no predictive value, might I disagree? You have been claiming this for a while now – and the trend seems to be in the right direction at the present time.

  20. Dr. Spencer
    All the best wishes for your daughter’s speedy recovery.
    ……………..
    OT
    Despite sharp drop in the Sunspot number Dr. Hathaway’s february ‘prediction’ is still holding on for SC24 max about 95 (range of 60-130).

    How does it compare with planetary hypothesis?
    Well, he has been all over the place, while formula held steady since 2003!

    http://www.vukcevic.talktalk.net/NFC7a.htm

  21. son of mulder says:
    February 2, 2012 at 12:11 pm

    We really will be doomed if it does. As a 3rd order polynomial that has already had a minimum and then a maximum it can only keep going down.

    oops, of course. :^) I guess I’m looking for more of a sinusoidal (sp?) fit. Reality, I’m sure there’s no easy way to predict the climate

  22. The big jump at the end sure kept it from being much more negative. Electro-scavenging? Well, this is the 3rd time in a row I’ve watched the daily temps after a CME event and the temps went up all 3 times. Anecdotal for sure, but I plan to keep watching …

    Roy, hope your daughter has a fast and painless recovery.

  23. Dr. Spencer,

    If I remember, you had a daughter who had an emergency C section recently, and now a daughter in an accident. Plus there was a tornado in your area last year. I think you have had plenty on your plate and I pray for a speedy recovery for both your girls and mental and physical fortitude for yourself. Thanks for all your hard work and dedication to family and job.

  24. We’ve had the NZ January Temp stats released.

    It appears overall for all of NZ. Temp were 0.7C below average.

    That would explain the Summer snow parts of the South Island experienced off and on during January.

  25. Good luck to your daughter and family Dr Spencer.
    At least she can’t run away whilst you’re ear-bashing her for the next couple of months. Get all those “when I was your age” sermons out of your system.

    Re: temps. With a 6-7 month lag, this weak La Nina’ should keep temps low well into this year.

  26. What is the anomaly when compared to WMO’s “normal” average that goes from between 1961-1990, since they won’t update until 2020? Lots of countries in EU won’t update their official numbers to a more proper normal. Ironic that that period happens to be below normal compared to the earlier “normal” average. In essence my country will always be warmer unless it turns colder ‘an the below average ice age scare decade of the 70’s. Why would a met office with super new super computers use historical “normals”. :(

    All hopes and best wishes for you and your daughter.

  27. Thank you, Dr. Spencer, and every good wish for your daughter’s recovery. Look after her, and yourself, and let the temp anomaly take care of itself for awhile.

    Steve

  28. Dr. Spencer: I am very sorry to hear of your daughter’s accident and I echo the wishes of everyone else on the thread, that she may make a full and quick recovery. Thanks for all you do.

  29. Thank you for all your work Dr. Spencer. As someone who was in a major accident that rendered me unable to walk for about 4 months I can tell you that with the support of friends and family,good medical care, a good attitude and hard work, recovery can be amazing. Two and a half years later it is almost as if the accident had never happened. I hope that the outcome is the same for your daughter. My thoughts are with you and your family.

  30. Well spotted, Green Sand,
    the new bom analysis definately shows the cool anomalies weakening at depth,

    http://www.bom.gov.au/cgi-bin/oceanography/wrap_ocean_analysis.pl?id=IDYOC007&year=2012&month=02

    But thats what happened this time last year….and La Nina still made a reasonable comeback!

    http://www.bom.gov.au/cgi-bin/oceanography/wrap_ocean_analysis.pl?id=IDYOC007&year=2011&month=02

    A very strong La Nina is still a statistical possibility, but as with all things statistical……..

  31. I am sorry to hear about your daughter. My wishes for a complete recovery without any lasting effects. First things first.

  32. X Anomaly says: “And for those interested, the -2 sub surface temperature anomalies in the east central equatorial pacific have expanded and risen towards the surface by around 60 meters in the last month.”

    Please provide a link to something that illustrates what you’re discussing. Thanks

  33. Health and family… the most important gifts anyone may be blessed with. May your daughter quickly and fully recover.

  34. The La Nina hit its bottom in the last few weeks at around -1.13C, which is a weak event.

    There is still cooling to come yet, however, due to the 3 month lag. Then it will take 3 to 6 months for the ENSO to warm back up to neutral. So there is no “warm” temperatures coming this year until perhaps late in the year. UAH should be just above Zero for the year.

    Now there is a tremendous amount of ocean heat accumulating in the 150 metre depths of the western Pacific. At some point, this is going to resurface as a very strong El Nino. There are no indicators it will happen by next Christmas, the typical time for the peak of the ENSO. But it will makes its way to the surface at some point.

    In the meantime, cooler than normal.

  35. Bill Illis:
    Yeh, I’ve been following that western Pacific heat build up here. That’s a little scary.

    “http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/analysis_monitoring/lanina/enso_evolution-status-fcsts-web.pdf”

    It hasn’t been moving up as it has grown. But if it does decide to move up, I’m not sure why it would take more than two or three month to get to the surface.

  36. I add my prayers for your daughter’s speedy recovery.

    Sometimes this site gets me glum, because I see too much of the low side of human nature: Grants used as bribes rather than as funding for truth-seekers, and people willing to compromise truth for funding.

    However other times I am amazed by the better side of human nature. When I look around I see people putting up with mighty big problems, especially when it is winter and especially when the economy is sour, yet somehow they go right ahead and do good work. Dr. Spencer is but one of millions. These people are the reason why, when we click a light switch, the lights actually come on.

    With my wife I run a child-care center on a farm, and between diapers and stables I have to deal with more sh– than most people. To top it off, the septic system has started acting up, because the leech field is deciding to quit. I suppose I could complain, but why bother? Sh– happens, and most people don’t want to hear about it.

    Instead, when I need a break from sh–, I come to WUWT, and often get a great break from worldly drudgery. Here I meet people who contemplate the clouds.

    Those interested in the dip in world temperatures should check out a neat map Ryan Maue has at his site at http://policlimate.com/weather/current/ext_raw_temp_c.html.

    That map not only shows that the current “World Anomaly” is -0.234, but it also shows where in the world it is cool, and where it is hot. Then, by clicking a little button, you can enter modle-land, and see what the the GFS modle predicts. However I don’t mind just looking at the data they put into the model, before they run it. “Zero hour.” That gives you clouds enough to ponder, and a wonderful break from dealing with sh–.

  37. Dr Spencer,
    Our children remain our children no matter how old they are. I still lay awake some nights worrying about my own. Thank heavans your daughter lives in America with its incredible medical science. May God stand beside your daughter and keep her safe during this trial.

  38. Thank you for sharing, Dr. Spencer, we would not have known.
    I can see you have a large extended family here that really cares.
    Godspeed the recovery of the injuries.
    Take care of yourself too.
    Best regards.

  39. Sorry to hear about your daughter, and wish she has a speedy recovery. Your family can take some comfort in that there are many out there who are rooting for her. Good luck.

  40. Dr. Spencer,
    Your daughter will be included in the Prayers for the Faithful at Mass this Sunday. May we know her name?

    Best wishes.

  41. Roy, my complete sympathies with and condolences for your current situation. I wish you well and your daughter a speedy recovery. As the parent of a 22 year old son, I know what it can be like – you never stop worrying about them.

  42. Just to echo the comments from the other posters in wishing your daughter a speedy recovery. I hope it never happens to mine. Thanks to you and Dr Christy for the wonderful dataset you’ve developed. For something that was put there for amusement purposes, that 3rd order polynomial is looking quite “skilful” atm.

  43. Roy, I hope her recovery goes well. Keep reminding her that she will be able to do her favorite things again. Looking forward to that time helps lift the healing spirit.

    I can do just about everything I used to do before the January ’09 ice storm tore my leg up. Except run and jump to speak of. Wouldn’t wish it on anyone. Be careful!

  44. Best wishes and a speedy recovery to your daughter. It must be heartbreaking for you to see someone you cherish going through such anguish, it’ll be a long road to full recovery and I’m sure you’ll have the whole community on here rooting for you, her and your family all the way.

  45. Best wishes to you and your family during this stressful time. Glad to her your daughter survived the accident, and I hope her leg heals well and she’s able to walk soon. As others have said, anything that touches our children goes straight to a parents heart and grips. I hope you and your wife are coping.

    Thanks also to you, and to Dr Christy, for being honest, questioning, proper scientists, in the face of a blizzard of political ‘climate’ science. You’re beacons in the climate darkness, and you keep us sane.

  46. X Anomaly says:
    February 2, 2012 at 3:18 pm
    the new bom analysis definately shows the cool anomalies weakening at depth,

    Yup, but as you point out the 2011 and 2012 4 month plots look very, very, similar. Time will tell, we just sit back and watch.

    Another interesting plot at BOM is their “cloudiness” chart

    http://www.bom.gov.au/climate/enso/

  47. Green Sand says:
    February 3, 2012 at 4:39 am
    “Another interesting plot at BOM is their “cloudiness” chart

    http://www.bom.gov.au/climate/enso/


    Very interesting is the OLR page.

    http://cawcr.gov.au/staff/mwheeler/maproom/

    From there, choose “time series plots”, which leads you here:

    http://cawcr.gov.au/staff/mwheeler/maproom/OLR/ts.html

    Click the red Central Pacific box and you get this:

    Looks to me like above average Outgoing Longwave Radiation over the past few years. Why doesn’t CO2 stop this?

  48. May the LORD answer you when you are in distress;
    and may the name of the God of Jacob protect you.
    May he send you help from the sanctuary
    and grant you support from Zion.
    We will shout for joy when you have the victory
    and we will lift up our banners in the Name of the Lord our God
    May the Lord grant to you the desires of your heart
    and make all your plans succeed!

    Psalm 20

  49. Bill Illis says:
    February 2, 2012 at 6:32 pm

    Now there is a tremendous amount of ocean heat accumulating in the 150 metre depths of the western Pacific. At some point, this is going to resurface as a very strong El Nino.

    Generally I thought that it was warm water in the east, not west Pacific that signifies the onset of el Nino. Over the past couple of years several have prematurely called an el Nino. So I wouldn’t say it is clear that an el Nino will follow from current conditions. Warm water along the west Pacific margin is a side effect of La Nina’s which are characterised by quantitatively much larger amounts of cool water to the east of the Pacific. (This western warm water filters through to the Indian ocean resulting in its current elevated OHC.)

    In fact simultaneously with the strengthening warming of the subsurface western Pacific is an intensification of the cold subsurface tongue at the east Pacific (WUWT ENSO page). The SOI (southern oscillation index) is also spiking up again this month, which argues against the bottoming out of the current La Nina.

  50. …….the graph needs another “El Nino warming” headline over 2010 to
    explain the 2010 temp spike…..
    Also best wishes….
    JS
    Your graph gets some excitement into life…..once the new monthly values are about
    to be released….. Each monthly graph …. another setback for AGW …. and it is not
    if but when sufficient monthly values are out…..that AGW gets into remorse….

  51. Dr. Spencer
    Best wishes for your Daughter and a quick and full recovery, and thank you for taking the time for the update.

    Larry

  52. I think a good way to conceptualize the pools of warm and cool water is that when there are stronger trade winds, all the warm water is bunched up over in the west. When related to the relative base period, we see that there isn’t necessarily any more warm water than usual across the pacific basin on a whole, it’s just been redistributed. La Nina you nearly always get warm water pushed to the western side, so warm water in the west is a consequence of La Nina. During 2010- 2011, the warm water built up in the west, and then sloshed over to the east a bit, as it usually does at this time of year climatologically speaking – and La Nina weakened at the surface, but the point is that all this happen simultaneously, so the warm water ‘recharge’ says absolutely nothing about a ‘coming El Nino’. It’s just a correlation fallacy. Otherwise, why did 2011 develop into La Nina instead of El Nino?

  53. X Anomaly says:
    February 3, 2012 at 3:43 pm
    I think a good way to conceptualize the pools of warm and cool water is that when there are stronger trade winds, all the warm water is bunched up over in the west.

    Yes and those stronger trade winds also drive east Pacific (Peruvian coast) upwelling of cold water, during the La Nina cycle. This reinforces the SST gradient which sustains the trades. Its referred to as the Bjerknes feedback.

  54. DirkH says:
    February 3, 2012 at 9:05 am
    Very interesting is the OLR page.

    http://cawcr.gov.au/staff/mwheeler/maproom/

    Thanks Dirk, I had not got there yet, but finding the BOM site to have some very interesting data.

    “Looks to me like above average Outgoing Longwave Radiation over the past few years. Why doesn’t CO2 stop this?”

    Good question, will have to keep watching and wondering:-).

  55. Best wishes for your daughter, Dr Spencer. Hope she has a healthy recovery.

    The 3rd order polynomial fit to the data (courtesy of Excel) is for entertainment purposes only, and should not be construed as having any predictive value whatsoever.

    I can’t see the entertainment value, and it might mislead careless readers. Why do you include it on these graphs?

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