We know that we are currently in a La Niña pattern by the various maps and graphs we have on the WUWT ENSO page, for example this one:
But have a look at the ensemble forecast, updated yesterday. The average line which has now dipped “off the scale” of the graphic from February-March of 2012:
h/t to reader Erik Anderson
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Which means ….? Help me out here.
Which means its going to be interesting…
It means we’re doomed!! Doomed, I tell you!!
As Chinese proverb interesting.. With luck we don’t go deep until spring-or what passes for it..
How does the ensemble mean compare to last years La Nina?
-Jay
Jack– that deep a La Nina? Northern and Central US and NW Europe will be very cold
Jack
It means nothing – as we have all been taught, el Nino is climate, but La Nina is just weather.
From today’s China Daily under my hotel room door this morning:
OFF TO A SNOWY START
Visitors pose for photos on Sunday at the Hongxing Volcano Geology Park in Yichun city, Northeast China’s Heilongjiang province. Snow fell in most parts of the province over the weekend.
It means hell will be freezing over soon.
Which means it going to get cold but ,NOAA and Accuweather, are forcasting above normal in southeast.They seem to forecast the same every year.Then in January they have to adjust .
This is not one of the two CFS graphs (V.1 or V.2) that is reported in the latest (10/17) weekly ENSO discussion update. http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/analysis_monitoring/lanina/enso_evolution-status-fcsts-web.pdf
Anyone know what this version represents, and why it’s not used in the report ? Perhaps this is considered an outlier at this time ?
If recollection serves me right this means that I better be ready for yet another wet and cold winter. The wet part is ok (up to about 200% of the normal rainfall that is, with a one day rain event no greater then 4″) as I obtain my water from a well. My house was built out of the flood plane and my culverts do fine most of the time.
The cold part on the other hand is getting old and expensive- as far as fuel costs to transform my living spaces into something habitable.
It means Global Freezening!
At long last, the top scientists’ predictions of 1975 are coming true.
Cooling will cost lives and much treasure. It ALWAYS does! GK
Habitualmente esto provoca intensas sequías en Sud América. Especialmente en Argentina y Brasil. Compren soja… Va a aumentar de precio.!!
It’s going to send global average temperatures, and particularly tropical temperatures, through the floor. We’ll be needing an explanation of how climate models don’t necessarily predict that climate change causes warming.
It would be a good opportunity for Dessler, Spencer, and other interested parties to make some predictions about top of atmosphere radiation.
We live in interesting climate times. Bundle up, it’s going to be colder than a witch’s kiss.
Wonderful…another harsh cold winter only to be followed by yet another lousy cool summer…sigh.
Robertol, what’s that in English, svp?
Very, very cold subsurface anomalies appearing in eastern ENSO regions. An east-central based Nina looking likely again. In terms of Winter, if the greenland block returns and gets established…look out!
I hope their wrong….. last winter was bad enough!
Mark what is a ‘flood plane’? Is a type of hovercraft you have there?
It means that the pro-global warming extremists will be provided with another reason why global temperatures are still not rising.
Hi Jack,
If you click here: http://wattsupwiththat.com/reference-pages/enso
That will take you to Anthony’s ENSO/SST Page. You can also just click on it near the bottom of the right column.
Near the end of the page there are two graphics that generally explain the effects of ENSO…
I wonder when they’ll be updating these month-old outlooks:
http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/predictions//multi_season/13_seasonal_outlooks/color/churchill.php
It means that driving over three Continental Divide crossings on Interstate 15 somewhere around November 9 may be a dicey prospect. It was sub-dicey last yer, southbound, and downright bizarre a week later, northbound. Hauling a trailer….meh.
Cold PDO with associated more frequent and stronger la ninas… high latitude volcanos going off left and right (katia looks ready to blow and that’s a very big deal climatically speaking)… continued low solar recent uptick notwithstanding….looks like the brutal winters continue into foreseeable future…
They’d better find that missing heat in a hurry :>0