The current American Chemical Society journal Environmental Science & Technology has a most amazing story demonstrating the foolish, indeed outright dangerous, application of the “precautionary principle” to AGW mitigation.
The story is at http://pubs.acs.org/doi/full/10.1021/es201943v, but all you really need to know is summarized in the last paragraph.
[ Note from Anthony: IPCC co-author, Dr. Rex Victor O. Cruz paper entitled “Yield and Oil Content Ideotypes Specification in Jatropha curcas L.” won Best Scientific Poster Award for Agricultural Sciences by the National Academy of Science and Technology on July 15, 2010.
It looks like Al Gore via his Goldman Sachs train-wreck had a hand in this nonsense too. See the Wikipedia description for Jatropha:
In 2007 Goldman Sachs cited Jatropha curcas as one of the best candidates for future biodiesel production. It is resistant to drought and pests, and produces seeds containing 27-40% oil, averaging 34.4%. The remaining press cake of jatropha seeds after oil extraction could also be considered for energy production. However, despite their abundance and use as oil and reclamation plants, none of the Jatropha species have been properly domesticated and, as a result, their productivity is variable, and the long-term impact of their large-scale use on soil quality and the environment is unknown. ]
The Extraordinary Collapse of Jatropha as a Global Biofuel
Promode Kant , Institute of Green Economy, C-312, Defence Colony, New Delhi 110024, India
Shuirong Wu Chinese Academy of Forestry, Wanshoushan, Haidian District, Beijing 100091, China
Blending of fossil diesel with biodiesel is an important climate change mitigation strategy across the world. In 2003 the Planning Commission of India decided to introduce mandatory blending over increasingly larger parts of the country and reach countrywide 30% blending status by the year 2020 and opted for nonedible oilseed species of Jatropha curcus raised over lands unsuited to agriculture as it was considered to be high in oil content, early yielding, nonbrowsable and requiring little irrigation and even less management.
In a massive planting program of unprecedented scale millions of marginal farmers and landless people were encouraged to plant Jatropha across India through attractive schemes.
…
In Tanzania more than 10
000 small farmers have established Jatropha plantations and many more have done so in the rest of East Africa.(2) By 2008, Jatropha had already been planted over an estimated 900000 ha globally of which an overwhelming 85% was in Asia, 13% in Africa and the rest in Latin America, and by 2015 Jatropha is expected to be planted on 12.8 million ha worldwide.(5)
But the results are anything but encouraging. In India the provisions of mandatory blending could not be enforced as seed production fell far short of the expectation and a recent study has reported discontinuance by 85% of the Jatropha farmers.(1) In China also until today there is very little production of biodiesel from Jatropha seeds. In Tanzania the results are very unsatisfactory and a research study found the net present value of a five-year investment in Jatropha plantation was negative with a loss of US$ 65 per ha on lands with yields of 2 tons/ha of seeds and only slightly beneficial at US$ 9 per ha with yields of 3 tons when the average expected Jatropha seed yield on poor barren soils is only 1.7 to 2.2 tons/ha. Even on normal fertile soils (average seed yield 3.9 to 7.5 tons/ha) Jatropha was no match for sunflower.(2, 4)
Though acclaimed widely for its oil, Jatropha was never considered economically important enough for domestication and its seed and oil productivity is hugely variable.
…
A case study of Jatropha plantations raised in 1993–1994 in the Indian province of Andhra Pradesh had reported actual yields that were far below expectations and the species was found to be prone to termite attacks, water logging, vulnerable to drought in the planting year and delayed yields.(3)
…
It appears to be an extreme case of a well intentioned top down climate mitigation approach, undertaken without adequate preparation and ignoring conflict of interest, and adopted in good faith by other countries, gone awry bringing misery to millions of poorest people across the world. And it happened because the principle of “due diligence” before taking up large ventures was ignored everywhere. As climate mitigation and adaptation activities intensify attracting large investments there is danger of such lapses becoming more frequent unless “due diligence” is institutionalized and appropriate protocols developed to avoid conflict of interest of research organizations. As an immediate step an international body like the FAO may have to intervene to stop further extension of Jatropha in new areas without adequate research inputs. Greater investments in dissemination of scientific data will help in ensuring due diligence does not cause undue delays in decision making.
The full story is at http://pubs.acs.org/doi/full/10.1021/es201943v
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The biggest conmen in Britain were involved in trying to flog this lemon all over Turkey and Africa. With those spivs involved, you just KNOW it was a total con.
But … the Natiional Academy of Science and Technology … Oh, never mind.
It seems that econuts produce more oil than anything else. Harvested by shooting themselves in the foot in a process similar to tapping maple trees for syrup.
Bob Geldof gave it his big seal of approval – another Geldof disaster……..
Biofuel should be banned as should wind farms and solar panels in the UK – if we the taxpayers have to subsidise anything let it be Thorium based nuclear power.
There is a table at MasterResource Doesn’t Anybody Read History? (False alarms recycled from the 1970s) citing Jatropha as the current “Chic biofuel source”.
“As climate mitigation and adaptation activities intensify attracting large investments there is danger of such lapses becoming more frequent unless “due diligence” is institutionalized and appropriate protocols developed to avoid conflict of interest of research organizations. ”
Just admit it, the knowledge problem prevents the possibility of centrally-planning this endeavor. No amount of protocols will help, and in fact they would probably make things worse. If this were a profitable venture, millions of individuals would find ways to most efficiently grow and process it. Just commanding from on high that it will work usually means that it won’t work.
Another fine example of the law of unintended consequences – if it was unintended. I’m sure many evil people have got rich out of yet another AGW-derived scam and millions more innocent people have been left in a worse state of poverty.
What’s everybody getting so upset about? This Public Policy Boondoggle will only to waste a few $Billion on top of the $Trillion already flushed down the Gaia Public Policy Appeasement commode.
What’s a few $Billion compared to the hundreds of $Billions squandered on wind turbines, solar farms, and high speed rail between Nowhere and Cant Get There From Here?
C’mon really . . . we need to be realistic about the greenie stupidity we expose and mock. Certainly the “north of $50Billion wasted per Project” is a target rich environment and I’d suggest we use that as the “Waste Line” for ridicule and exposure.
/sarc off
One really should “test the waters” before “jumping in with both feet.” Or headfirst.
Oh, they did – in 1993-1994.
Seems like they could have spent a couple decades on plant husbandry to come up with a better commercial plant. Perhaps we can expect more of these if oil prices stay high or go higher.
If it has the letters “Bio” in it, it should be “Bio-Food”. Other than construction or food, any use for anything Bio is a gross and negligent misuse of a precious renewable resource.
Use for fuel anything that can’t be eaten, and don’t displace that which could be eaten for something that can be used for fuel….unless you’ve got too much food.
@Brian Johnson uk
Are you referring to a Liquid Fluoride Thorium Reactor (LFTR)? One has yet to be built and the closest example, the ORNL Molten-salt reactor, never actually used thorium and was never used to generate electricity. While it sounds good, on paper, isn’t that what’s said about all the green projects?
Let’s hope the ‘due diligence’ remains bad. Like any other criminal syndicate, the Carbon Mafia will only disappear after most of its participants decide it’s a money-loser. The ‘science’ stuff is just flash and dazzle to bring in the marks.
It rather reminds me of the British government’s disastrous GROUNDNUT SCHEME in the period of austerity after the war. Food was still rationed at the time. The groundnuts were to produce edible oil on a large scale from virgin land in Africa. It was a total disaster which soaked up millions of pounds and never produced any usable quantity of oil. Rusting equipment still litters the bush over sixty year later.
Looks to me to be another Tanganyika Groundnut Scheme! See wikipedia http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Tanganyika_groundnut_scheme
Let me get this straight. East of Africe in 2008 switches crops to biofuel, 2011 mass starvation. I must be oversimplifying this in my mind or misinterpreting.
Let small risks be taken by a few people willing to accept them. Let them profit from success. When governments impose mitigation schemes, it forces us all to accept big risks, and pay for the big failures. But let’s not forget they meant well.
This investment sounds about the same as the investment in electric cars.
A total and ultra expensive waste of time and effort
This sounds even worse than the ‘Groundnut Scheme’ (1946-51). At least we were planning to cook with the peanut oil not burn it in our cars.
http://www.themeister.co.uk/economics/groundnut_scheme.htm
As many others noticed…
Genuine question: In what way is burning oil from “Jatropha” (whatever that may be) any better than burning fossil fuel oil, in terms of “climate change mitigation strategy”? Is the CO2 produced by Jatropha better than other forms of CO2? (Really. I’m not trying to score points here – I just don’t get it.)
A few years from now there will be similar reports regarding wind turbines. As yet, they are still being planted on marginal land using both direct and indirect subsidizes from tax payers. Trying to find out of what type the subsidizes are and how much money is involved is a bit hard. Likewise for their contribution to society. I believe they do have oil and other resources (rare earth metals) that can be harvested but not nearly enough to recover the cost of doing so. With Jatropha the lands are more easily reclaimed.
If they would just get those pesky orangutangs out of the way….
….palm oil would be profitable
MorinMoss says:
August 7, 2011 at 11:24 am
“@Brian Johnson uk
Are you referring to a Liquid Fluoride Thorium Reactor (LFTR)? One has yet to be built and the closest example, the ORNL Molten-salt reactor, never actually used thorium and was never used to generate electricity. While it sounds good, on paper, isn’t that what’s said about all the green projects?”
The German HTR used Thorium and produced power over years. Not Molten Salts but pellets in a Helium atmosphere.
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/THTR-300
Perhaps the Jatropha plant carries a virus that it transmits to humans that causes such infected humans to do crazy things that help the Jatropha plant propagate itself.
Propagation of the Jatropha plant sure seems to have been the only result of all this craziness.
High time for a quick & comprehensive resolution of the UNO General Assembly to make blending snake oil into diesel fuel compulsory. It would also have the beneficial effect of boosting the snake oil market, making plenty of jobs for the needy. What more one could wish for?
/sarc off