While the press release says University of Exeter, this slide show by Tim Lenton from the University that brought up ClimateGate, UEA, sees tipping worry in every event.
Source: http://www.slideshare.net/Stepscentre/tim-lenton-early-warning-of-climate-tipping-points
From Eurekalert:
Climate change disasters could be predicted
Climate change disasters, such as the melting of the Greenland ice sheet, dieback of the Amazon rainforest or collapse of the Atlantic overturning circulation, could be predicted according to University of Exeter research.
Writing in the journal Nature Climate Change, Professor Tim Lenton of the University of Exeter shows that the ‘tipping points’ that trigger these disasters could be anticipated by looking for changes in climate behaviour.
Climate ‘tipping points’ are small changes that trigger a massive shift in climate systems, with potentially devastating consequences. It is already known that climate change caused by human activity could push several potential hazards past their ‘tipping point’. However, it is often assumed that these ‘tipping points’ are entirely unpredictable.
Professor Lenton argues that a system of forecasting could be developed to enable some forewarning of high-risk tipping points. The approach he outlines involves analysing observational data to look for signs that a climate system is slowing down in its response to short-term natural variability (which we experience as the weather). This characteristic behaviour indicates the climate is becoming unstable, and is a common feature of systems approaching critical thresholds known as ‘bifurcation points’.
Professor Tim Lenton of the University of Exeter said: “Many people assume that tipping points which could be passed as a result of human-induced climate change are essentially unpredictable. Recent research shows that the situation is not as hopeless as it may seem: we have the tools to anticipate thresholds, which means we could give societies valuable time to adapt.
“Although these findings give us hope, we are still a long way from developing rigorous early warning systems for these climate hazards.”
Early warning of climate tipping points by Professor Timothy Lenton (University of Exeter) is published in Nature Climate Change volume 1, issue 3, July 2011 and online on Sunday 19 June at 18.00 BST. Copies available on request.
==================================================================
Here is the transcript for the slide show above.
Tim Lenton – Early warning of climate tipping points – Presentation Transcript
- Early warning of climate tipping points Tim Lenton School of Environmental Sciences, University of East Anglia, Norwich With special thanks to Valerie Livina, John Schellnhuber, Frank Kwasniok
- Outline Tipping elements Risk assessment Early warning
- Two types of tipping point Bifurcation
- Two types of tipping point Bifurcation No bifurcation
- Policy relevant forcing range IPCC (2007) = High growth = Mid growth = Low growth
- Tipping elements in the climate system Revised from original in Lenton et al. (2008) PNAS 105(6): 1786-1793 October 11, 2010
- Estimates of proximity Lenton & Schellnhuber (2007) Nature Reports Climate Change Results from literature review and workshop
- Likelihood of tipping Kriegler et al. (2009) PNAS 10.1073/pnas.0809117106 Imprecise probability statements from experts Atlantic formally combined Under 2-4 °C warming: Greenland >16% probability of passing at least one of five tipping points Antarctica Under >4 °C warming: >56% probability of passing at least one of Amazon five tipping points El Niño
- Impacts of tipping Lenton, Footitt & Dlugolecki (2009) http://assets.panda.org/downloads/plugin_tp_final_report.pdf Populations exposed to 1-in-100-yr flood events Allianz / WWF report: Increased sea level rise +$25,158 billion exposed assets in port megacities Indian summer monsoon disruption Amazon dieback and drought Aridification of southwest North America October 11, 2010
- Tipping element risk assessment Tipping element Likelihood of Relative Risk score Risk ranking passing a tipping impact** of (likelihood x point change in state impact) (by 2100) (by 3000) Arctic summer sea-ice High Low 3 4 Greenland ice sheet Medium-High* High 7.5 1 (highest) West Antarctic ice sheet Medium* High 6 2 Atlantic THC Low* Medium-High 2.5 6 ENSO Low* Medium-High 2.5 6 West African monsoon Low High 3 4 Amazon rainforest Medium* Medium 4 3 Boreal forest Low Low-Medium 1.5 8 (lowest) *Likelihoods informed by expert elicitation **Initial judgment of relative impacts is my subjective assessment Impacts depend on human responses hence are more epistemologically contested than assigning likelihoods to events (Stirling 2003 ‘Risk, uncertainty and precaution…’) October 11, 2010
- Prospects for bifurcation early warning Held & Kleinen (2004) Geophysical Research Letters 31: L23207 Lenton et al. (2008) PNAS 105(6): 1786-1793 Generic early warning signals: Slowing down Increasing variability Skewness of responses Flickering between states System being forced past a tipping point October 11, 2010
- Model test of early warning method Held & Kleinen (2004) Geophysical Research Letters 31: L23207 CLIMBER-2 intermediate complexity model Linear increase in CO2 from 280 to 800 ppmv Stochastic perturbation of freshwater forcing
- Fully 3-D dynamical model test Lenton et al. (2009) Phil. Trans. A 367: 871-884 Atlantic meridional overturning circulation Early warning indicator from autocorrelation function Early warning indicator from detrended fluctuation analysis October 11, 2010 GENIE-2 model
- Paleo-data test of early warning method Livina & Lenton (2007) Geophysical Research Letters 34: L03712 Greenland ice-core regional temperature record Early warning indicator from detrended fluctuation analysis Early warning indicator from autocorrelation function October 11, 2010
- Detecting the number of system states Livina, Kwasniok & Lenton (2010) Climate of the Past, 6: 77-82 New method; „potential analysis‟: Assume polynomial potential and random noise Estimate number of states (i.e. order of polynomial) Estimate noise level Derive potential coefficients and hence shape of potential Number of states: 1, 2, 3, 4 October 11, 2010
- Changing number of climate states Livina, Kwasniok & Lenton (2010) Climate of the Past, 6: 77-82 Number of states: 1, 2, 3, 4
- European monthly temperature anomaly (1659-2004) Livina et al. (in revision) Climate Dynamics Number of states: 1, 2, 3, 4 October 11, 2010
- Atlantic Multi-decadal Oscillation (1856-present) Livina et al. (in revision) Climate Dynamics Number of states: 1, 2, 3, 4
- Conclusion Tipping elements in the climate system could be triggered this century by anthropogenic forcing The Greenland and West Antarctic ice sheets probably represent the largest risks Some tipping points can be anticipated in principle, but sufficiently high-resolution, long records are often lacking A change in the number of climate states can be detected, in a noisy climate system that is moving between states Improved understanding is needed to help policy makers “avoid the unmanageable and manage the unavoidable” October 11, 2010
- Find out more http://knowledge.allianz.com/climate_tipping_points/climate_en.html October 11, 2010
- Example of transition (but not bifurcation) Livina, Ditlevsen, Lenton (submitted) Nonlinear Processes in Geophysics Sigmoid function with red noise, fluctuation exponent 0.7 ACF-propagator (without detrending) is more sensitive to transitions
====================================================================
I’ve yet to see a “climate change disaster”. I would suppose that the closest thing that qualifies would be the Vikings getting frozen out of Greenland as the MWP ended. Lenton’s study assumes that Earth’s climate will become more chaotic due to AGW, rather than establishing some new equilibrium point.
Discover more from Watts Up With That?
Subscribe to get the latest posts sent to your email.
Some folks just insist on seeing monsters under every bed. I’m glad I grew up and those things don’t bother me any more..
I think there is a very good project for a good investigative journalist —have a long hard look at the history and development of the CRU. It is not just those that are there now , but so many of the “leaders” in the AWG machine haves links back to the UEA.
So… the greening of the Sahara is a tipping point, or an early sign that we’re approaching a tipping point?
Yes, this is the bogeyman stalking the world – if we don’t do something about fossil fuel use quick, the Sahara could become arable land again! LOOK OUT! Crop yields might increase around the Mediterranean too!
Hard for me to see how that could cause permanent change on a global scale.
Hard for me to see why they bothered mentioning it, since it doesn’t seem like a bad thing.
Good grief!! Who pays for thus stuff??? (And why???)
Nature Climate Change – the name says it all. You know what to expect.
It would be nice if those guys could actually predict something. But so far the only sure thing is that if they say it will happen, the smart money is on the opposite.
Climate “Science” is batting 0 for 1000. Someday they will get something right, by accident more then anything, and then just look out!!!
I think it already bifurcated here, i mean the weather is really lousy. Surely some serious climate disruption. Hope it doesn’t spread to non-Kyotoland.
They forgot to add some “Skulls” and “Fish skeletons”, and maybe some “Polar Bear Skeletons” to the graphic to indicate the massive loss of life, diebacks and species loss…
They can’t accurately predict the weather very far out but can identify small changes as tipping points that have devastating results.
This sounds a lot like the butterfly effect.
“I think there is a very good project for a good investigative journalist —have a long hard look at the history and development of the CRU. It is not just those that are there now , but so many of the “leaders” in the AWG machine haves links back to the UEA.”
The CRU’s building is named after its original founder, Hubert Lamb, who was the grandfather of the MWP and LIA.
Here he is in a news clipping from 1972, a year after CRU was founded, predicting a slow decent into a new ice age: http://climategate.tv/wp-content/uploads/2010/05/deseret2.png.
His book “Climate History and the Modern World” was updated in ’94 and included faint praise of AGW theory:
“Changes in the amount of carbon dioxide and other ‘greenhouse’ gases in the atmosphere, as well as variations of the water vapor content, and of cloudiness, must also be expected to affect the climate. It now seems necessary to admit – though this is seldom mentioned in recent literature – that none of these variations explains the timing of the general warming and cooling phases altogether satisfactorily, certainly not as well as widely claimed. In particular, the sharp warming phase around 1700, and the mid-twentieth-century cooling from about the 1940s to the early 1980s, are not well accounted for. Nor is the magnitude, nor the distribution, of warming and cooling over the Earth in good agreement with most global warming model predictions. Even the great warmth of the years 1989-91, hailed in some quarters as proof of the reality of the predicted global warming due to the enhancement of the greenhouse effect by increasing carbon dioxide and other effluents, requires the usual adjustments.”
I don’t mind… the more predictions these idiots make, the less likely the hoi palloi will be to believe them when their predictions fail.
Mark
Old news, Tims been flogging this since…
Washington, DC November 24, 2009
World Wildlife Fund (WWF) and the leading insurer Allianz SE released a report today warning that sea level rise could dramatically increase risks to buildings, transportation infrastructure and other assets exposed to severe storm surges in coastal areas of the U.S.
…
The report, ‘Major Tipping Points in the Earth’s Climate System and Consequences for the Insurance Sector’ was written by Tim Lenton and Anthony Footitt at the Tyndall Centre for Climate Change Research; and Andrew Dlugolecki at Andlug Consulting (all in the U.K.).
…
“As an insurer and investor, we must prepare our clients for these scenarios as long as we still have leeway for action,” said Scott Steinmetz, PE, AVP Corporate Risk Governance, Fireman’s Fund Insurance, a company of Allianz. “Setting premiums risk-appropriately and sustainably is of vital interest to everyone involved, because this is the only way to ensure that coverage solutions will continue to exist.”
http://www.prweb.com/releases/sea_level/weather_storms/prweb3250634.htm
Follow the money, or in this case the perception of threat risks which increases insurance premiums.
PS.These insureance companies fund the CRU
Norwich Union
Reinsurance Underwriters and Syndicates
See Also:
“From Risk to Opportunity” Evan Mills, Ph.D. April 2009
…”Enabling Customers to Acquire Carbon Offsets”
Another initiative brings together a set of insurers that, for every vehicle or travel policy bought through online broker Climatesure, contribute a percentage of the premium to the company Climate Care, which operates carbon-offsetting projects and provides a100% offset for the customer’s travel (including up to 40 flight hours per policy) with no price premium (Osborne 2006). Among the insurers offering policies through Climatesure are AXA, Norwich Union, Groupama Insurances, and Premier Underwriting; premiums are lower for fuel-efficient cars. Allianz also is offering certified carbon offsets for drivers, and plans to augment this with some sort of premium incentive (Allianz 2007b). RSA’s More Th>n Green Wheels automobile insurance provides a 15% discount for qualifying vehicles, including 100% carbon offset for the first 3,000 miles driven each year, with an option to the customer to purchase offsets for the remaining amount.
http://www.climate-insurance.org/upload/pdf/Mills2008_risk-to-opportunity.pdf
The Money, follow the Money.
He left out rapid Methane release from East Siberian Sea.
I suspect these blokes know more about university-town tippling points than about dynamic tipping points.
Might as well just stick to the chicken entrails…
Buy property in Timbuctoo – now!
They say human induced climate change causes these tipping points. Presumably naturally occurring climate change, no matter of what magnitude could never cause these tipping points to be reached.
I am happy to see that Australia is not the home of a coloured ‘tipping point’. Maybe we can still save the rest of the world?
Ok, so the SW USA is supposed to dry out, while the Sahara is greening up, eh? Isn’t the reason that both these regions are dry is due to the fact they lie in the “horse latitudes”?
Ok, so the SW USA is supposed to dry out, while the Sahara is greening up, eh? Isn’t the reason that both these regions are dry is due to the fact they lie in the “horse latitudes”? So, if one area is greening up shouldn’t they all be?
I see a Josh cartoon here. ‘changes in climate behavior’? Sounds like looking for warning signs for teenage delinquency. Will El Nino start hanging around street corners acting tough?
to look for signs that a climate system is slowing down in its response to short-term natural variability
Silly me, I would expect the second derivative of any change to become MORE positive near a tipping point.
Watts:I’ve yet to see a “climate change disaster”.
Oh, come now. What do you call the IPCC and company?
They happen all the time, but are in all different directions and cancel each other out, so we don’t notice them.
After all the dire predictions that these people have made (none of which have come true nor are they likely to), they come up with more. What is wrong with these people? I really do not understand. It’s like talking to a five year old. It doesn’t matter to them in the least if they’re proved wrong — they simply start up right back where they left off as if nothing happened or was said. You would think that eventually they would step back and reevaluate their position. Look at the data and make some observations. See what’s going on in the world. It’ very frustrating. These are supposed to be learned people steeped in the ways of science and method. Instead, they’re more Orwellian, speaking the New Speak, telling the Big Lie over and over again until they make it the truth.
I’m all for keeping it clean. I don’t want a polluted planet. I want to be able to take my young children on month long sojourns through the redwoods and up to Glacier. But lying to people or advancing an agenda isn’t going to save anything. And regulating me to the point where that trip would be illegal won’t make me happy, either. Nor will frightening my science-starved neighbors and making them think that they are somehow doing The Right Thing by voting in laws that will strip us all of our right to own a vehicle to make the trip I just spoke of.
Carbon dioxide is not a poison unless it’s the only gas in the room. Full stop. The climate has always changed and it will until the sun burns out — and I think we can all agree it will be fairly static thereafter. Will they be happy then? All their predictions will come true, then. It will be like shooting fish in a barrel.
Jeez, I’m frustrated by these idiots. Can you tell? Sorry for the rant. It wasn’t really like that when it was rolling around in my head. Something high jacked me between my brain stem and fingers.
Did you see that volcano article that the iceland volcano has special chrloine emissions, maybe that’s why the ozone hole went bad in the northern hemisphere