By Charles The Moderator,
I have lived in California all my life, the first half in SoCal, the second half in NorCal.
A funny thing happens ever year.
If we have a below normal amount of rain, in the spring we get warnings that it’s going to be severe wildfire season, because the brush is so dry.
If we have an above normal amount of rain we get warnings that it’s going to be severe fire season, because there is so much extra brush.
If we have a normal rainy season we get warnings that’s it’s going to be severe fire season, with some hybrid explanation or an allusion to a previous fire season.
With the winter season likely to be a wet one in California, see Anthony’s recent post here, I propose a contest, which begins January 1st, 2011.
The first person to identify a news story expressing one of the three options noted above and note it in this thread will win a modest prize and a hat tip for fame and glory. I suspect April or May we will see a winner.
I suggest that those that wish to participate bookmark this post to keep track. I’ll set up notifications for myself to be emailed on activity in this thread.
Rules,
You need to find a real news story (or press release), not make it up yourself. I will be the judge.
The warning needs to come from a relevant State or Federal official, or a Fire Department official. I will be the arbiter of qualification.
charles the moderator
Discover more from Watts Up With That?
Subscribe to get the latest posts sent to your email.
Um, you said a “relevant” state or federal official?
Is there any such thing???
Mike (and Merry Christmas!)
Sounds a bit like the predictions that we usually get in Perth, Western Australia.
John Gorter
(now Italian domiciled and getting very wet)
A few years ago we had a week walking in Galicia, the climate of which is, I believe, not dissimilar to California. When I read of climate change causing fires in the forests there I alway ask about the eucalyptus. On patches of burnt out pine, still black after a year from forest fires, you could see the scorched eucalyptus bursting into leaf, unencumbered by the shade of their neighbours which had been burnt to dead boles, while all around baby eucalypts were pushing through the soil. And among the pine trees there were deep drifts of eucalyptus bark, perfect as tinder.
Sometimes there are fires because we are growing the perfect fire starter, a tree which uses fire to dominate dry landscapes.
JF
And that year when the Pyromaniac convention came to town didn’t help either.
Science and sanity will prevail because of people such as you.
Thank you.
I have a better bet. My bet is that the first mention of a prediction will be January, not May or April. If I win that prediction do I get my name in lights?
Looks like the national 2010 fire season will be the least bad in the last decade, less than 1/2 the average acreage burned.
http://www.nifc.gov/fire_info/nfn.htm
It was a very quiet fire season here in northern California.
Too funny!. My dad worked at LA County Flood Control District and this first came up at dinner about 1962. Some things just don’t change. Oh, and I’ll bet you have a winner in January.
But with the new Global Warming Laws in effect, will anyone capable of issuing said pronouncement still be employed in CA by April?
There should be a double hat tip if the same story mentions climate warming, er change, um, disruption.
http://www.lompocrecord.com/news/local/article_7888c13a-bb11-11df-b0db-001cc4c03286.html
This article is funny on a number of levels. First, JPL predicted with certainty a dry warmer winter for CA back in September 2010 “that’s a given”. We have now had one of the wettest coolest winters on record.
“This La Niña is strengthening and will surely impact this coming winter’s Northern Hemisphere climate,” said Southern California weather guru Bill Patzert, a climatologist with the Jet Propulsion Laboratory.
That’s a given. What is in doubt is the degree to which the weather phenomenon will affect the area. Calling La Niña “the diva of drought,” Patzert declared, “it always brings a dry winter.”
Now to CTM’s point about fire season prediction in CA. JPL predicted a warm dry winter which according to JPL means that next year’s fire season will be worse as a result.
“But she could be a naughty little girl if she worsens conditions that fuel Southern California wildfires, as Patzert fears. While not a threat here, La Niñas also bring more hurricanes to the Atlantic.”
Patzert had more bad news for as diverse a group as ranchers, skiers and firefighters. Because of the strength of the current La Niña, “The next few months will reveal if the current (Pacific Ocean) cooling trend will eventually evolve into a long-lasting La Niña situation.”
Global warming ‘will give Britain longer, colder winters’ as melting sea ice plays havoc with weather patterns
Read more: http://www.dailymail.co.uk/sciencetech/article-1341388/Global-warming-Britain-longer-colder-winters-melting-sea-ice-plays-havoc-weather-patterns.html#ixzz198xhwIiy
“Rising temperatures in the Arctic – increasing at two to three times the global average – have peeled back the region’s floating ice cover by 20 percent over the last three decades.
As the Arctic ice cap has melted the heat from the relatively-warm seawater escapes into the colder atmosphere above, creating an area of high pressure.
That creates clockwise winds that sweep south over the UK and northern Europe.
The study was completed last year – before Britain was hit by a freezing winter and heavy snowfall.”
Hmmm. What does one do with a mind set that prefers a hypothesis and a model over observational phenomena?
I assume the officials and their family members can’t enter the contest.
We joke about that in our family too…so we’ll keep an eagle eye out. 🙂
Your observations confirm the persistence of cultural memories of Chicken Little‘s warning.
The Anxiety Center is granting the Chicken Little award.
These memories provide opportunities for reaping profits with Chicken Little and Oil Prices
(For the reality see Robert L. Hirsch, The Impending World Energy Mess.)
Alan Caruba (April 2009) explores Solar Scenarios
In June 1965, Johnny Cash’s
He went on to record “Chicken in Black” Are there any more “climate change” Chickens in Black out there?
While we wait, perhaps readers could contribute further evidence of the persistence of such “Chicken Little” or Henny Penning) warnings.
Official Press Release — Washington DC.
Due to the extreme wet weather, and global warming, I, a relevant federal official, predict a severe fire season for the upcoming California summer.
David W. Schnare, PhD.
/smirk off
The SF Chronicle will have this story next month!
Heh heh. Noticed the same thing here in Silicon Valley. Like Lake Wobegon’s kids, every predicted fire season here is “above average”.
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Illusory_superiority
Lived in the San Fernando valley as a kid around 1960 and watched the hills burn every spring. It was pretty impressive as a kid. A decade later The Doors sang about the hills burning on their LA Woman album. 40 years later and they still burn.
The more things change; the more they don’t.
Merry Christmas to one and all from Anchorage.
No fair using Google….
In my English childhood I was told the same story but it was about Chicken Licken who met Henny Lenny, Cocky Locky, Ducky Lucky, Drakey Lakey, Goosey Loosey, Gander Lander and Turkey Lurkey before Foxy Loxy.
We remain separated by a common language.
“If we have a below normal amount of rain, in the spring we get warnings that it’s going to be severe wildfire season, because the brush is so dry.”
How about “below average” instead of “below normal”, since there is no “normal”.
Reply: Normal is the accepted term for the 30 year running average. ~ ctm
I would expect if much sooner with proposals to significantly increase taxes — by eliminating tax breaks to the rich — with significant amounts of the increase taxes going to schools, of course, and to combat increased fire danger caused by right-wing hamburger flippers.
I also noticed something else about California:
If rainfall comes in even 0.1 inch below “normal”, then it is a drought.
So if “Global Warming” causes a cold winter today, what caused cold winters when we didn’t have “Global Warming”?
Check out this website on 01 Jan 2011 for Seasonal Outlooks by Region: